India And The Dying Art Of Batting For A Draw

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

India Losing the Art of Batting for a Draw

 

August 19^th 2014

 
 

Yesterday I pointed out two sets of statistics that show how the nature of England v India Test series has changed in the last 4 years compared to the previous decade:

·         Between 2002 and 2008/9, there were 16 England v India Tests, in 5 series. India won 5 of the games, England 2, with 9 drawn. What is more, England failed to win any of the series, losing 3 and sharing 2.

 

o   56% of draws

·         Since 2011, the power balance has tipped completely in the opposite direction, with England winning 9 and drawing 2 of the 13 Tests and winning all three series.

o   15% of draws

Normally the reduced percentage of draws is attributed to the faster pace of Test cricket now, with teams scoring at a much higher run-rate than was typical in even the recent past. While this is a factor, it may not big as big a factor as you might think.

In both 2011 and 2014, England won the final Test of the series by an innings. What was the difference?

·         In 2011, the two Indian innings lasted a total of 185 overs.

·         In 2014, the two Indian innings lasted a total of 90.3 overs.

Have India’s innings just moved at a faster pace now? No, actually the run rate has been significantly lower.

·         In the final Test of 2011, India scored at 3.15 per over.

·         In the final Test of 2014, India scored at 2.67 per over.

The main difference is that Indian batsmen seem to be losing the capability to bat for a long time to try to save a match. This though was a key element of Duncan Fletcher’s strategy to move England from the bottom of the Test rankings in 1999 to be #1 (although England only reached that ranking finally under Andy Flower in 2011): play to avoid defeat and try to spring a victory from a position of safety.

Even though they lost the final Test in 2011 by an innings, the Indian batsmen took the match deep into the final afternoon and, at 262-3, even looked set to save the Test, before the loss of Mishra and Tendulkar in the space of four balls induced a collapse. In the corresponding match of 2014 the innings lasted the equivalent of less than a session and there was never any suggestion that India might be capable of saving the game, or even planting significant resistance in the hope that the weather might intervene and give a helping hand. What is more, the batsmen have been scoring significantly more slowly against a much less experienced and less potent attack, lacking a front-line spinner (for all his success, Moeen Ali is no Graeme Swann) and with back-up seamers who have just nine Tests between them, than they faced in 2011.

Whereas all logic suggested that the England attack, particularly Broad and Anderson, should be nearing exhaustion after seven Tests in two and a half months, including several back-to-back Tests, it was the Indian attack, with its much lighter load, that seemed to fade rapidly under the strain despite a preparation that seemed designed to ensure that the bowlers were peaking by the 3^rd or 4^th Test. Both Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad bowled more overs than any of the Indian attack and had also bowled almost 100 overs each against Sri Lanka, yet it was the England seamers who seemed fresher at the end of the series.

The proposed solution from some Indian fans? Only play short series in the future because Indian bowlers cannot be expected to last a 4 or 5-match series! The level of denial is astonishing: the alternative, to play a few fewer T20s and hone skills playing, for example, some County cricket in England, is not even deemed worthy of consideration. A generation of English cricket fans remember watching Bishan Bedi play for Northants, or Farokh Engineer for Lancashire, legends of the game who were immensely popular with the fans yet, then as now, although many Pakistanis have and still do come to England to play, Indians are few and far between and, when they do come, as Kapil Dev, or Sachin Tendulkar did, it has usually been short-term. Even so, many of the young generation or Indian players could learn a lot even in a single season of county cricket, quite apart from being great ambassadors for their country as the aforementioned players were.

Speaking of County cricket, today served-up one of the best finishes that a County match has seen for a long time. With Northants all but relegated mathematically with four games still to go (even four big wins might well not be enough to reach safety), the battle is on to avoid the second relegation position. The two sides that are second and third from bottom – Lancashire and Durham – fought out an epic battle. Lancashire knew that defeat would leave them in an almost unrecoverable position, while victory would pull them out of the relegation zone and pull Middlesex firmly into the battle for survival. After 3 days the draw looked a strong favourite until Durham collapsed horribly around lunch, from 73-1 to 187ao. Needing 107 to win in 36 overs, Lancashire seemed red-hot favourites until a Durham fightback of epic proportions reduced them to 36-5 and then 90-9. Listeners to the BBC County cricket commentaries had a treat as Martin Emerson and Scott Read gave a storming performance, bringing to life an agonising finale, with Lancashire scrambling a win with two balls to spare.

The BBC commentaries are brilliant and are producing a generation of passionate, articulate and knowledgeable commentators who bring the game to life and who know that they have a little more licence to be partisan than normal in sporting commentary and so get the fans involved too. Some of the best commentators on the county circuit make no attempt to hide their affiliation, while being scrupulously fair at the same time. The result is a service that is helping to bring County cricket to a far wider audience, who are finding it great entertainment.

With the Lancashire win, however agonic, ten points separate Durham from Middlesex, with Lancashire in between, four points behind Middlesex, but with a game more played. Here though is the rub. Durham have a home game to come against Northants that they will expect to win, potentially leapfrogging both Lancashire and Middlesex as a result. Middlesex play both Durham and Lancashire in their run in, finishing with a game at Old Trafford that is a potential relegation decider. A defeat to either Durham or, especially, Lancashire could see Middlesex go from topping the table after six games, to final day relegation. The final rounds of games are going to be very exciting indeed for the fans and fiercely contested. Three proud, passionate sides will be fighting for their cricketing lives and their BBC commentators will be bringing it to life with their usual skill and enthusiasm .

Series Reflections

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Indian Wipe Out

 

August 18^th 2014

 
 

457, 391-9d, 295, 342, 330, 178, 152, 161, 148, 94

The final number in the sequence of Indian scores was even lower than the greatest (English) optimist could have hoped. It was though sadly inevitable after a chastening first hour in which only the slow over-rate saved India from the ignominy of conceding 100 runs to England’s tail. Things could have been even worse because both Broad and Root were wrongly given out while hammering the Indian attack at 9-an-over. It was no great surprise that even a significant rain delay could not allow India to reach Tea. 29.2 overs. 143 minutes and it was “thanks for the game”.

1815 runs for 49 wickets in the first five innings of the series, or 37.0 runs per wicket.

733 runs for 50 wickets in the last five innings of the series, or 14.7 runs per wicket.

Many people have pointed to the first ball of the 12^th over of the first morning of the 3^rd Test as the key moment of the series. Pankaj Singh bowled a ball just outside off to Alistair Cook, who edged a gentle catch to Ravi Jadeja at third slip. Jadeja floored it, England obtained their first 50 opening partnership since Melbourne and Alistair Cook scored a possibly career-saving 95.

Ravi Jadeja. Was his mind completely on the game? How distracted was he by events off the field? Would he have taken the catch had it not been for the fuss surrounding the incident with Jimmy Anderson? Was it just coincidence that India lost focus after that incident as England became fired-up?

Interestingly, since the low point of series defeat against Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankans have come close – just 2 wickets away – from sharing a series against South Africa and are on the pointing of whitewashing Pakistan 2-0. Maybe that defeat was not quite as bad as it seemed at the time? That last day of the series, although leading to a dispiriting loss, was also arguably the point when England started to pull out of their own crash dive with a rearguard action that almost saved the Test, although they still had a couple of desperately bad sessions at Lords.

Before the series you would have reckoned that one of the two under fire captains would not survive the series. A month ago the odds were against Alistair Cook seeing out the series but, without ever looking quite convincing, he has averaged 49.7 with 3x50. There are still questions about his captaincy and he has still gone 13 months since his last century, but he lives to fight another day. MS Dhoni, in contrast, despite 4x50, has averaged only 33.9 – less than you would want from your #6 – and has looked increasingly poor as a wicket-keeper and lost as a skipper: the hideous statistic of conceding 101 runs in 69 balls against the England tail, on top of the 67 runs in 61 balls that Root and Jordan had added the previous evening showed how much things were allowed to drift. 168 runs in 130 balls from the fall of the 7^th wicket, 59 of them faced by England’s #9, 10 & 11. India must be wondering, however good MS Dhoni is in the short form of the game, if they would do better with a change of both wicket-keeper and captain.

Dhoni may go to Australia for the 3 Test series in December as captain on the grounds that there is no obvious alternative but, do the BCCI really want to risk a captaincy crisis in the light of a whitewash, as a prelude to the World Cup?

This series has also cemented a remarkable power shift in England v India Tests.

Since 2000 there have been 8 bilateral series.

·         Between 2002 and 2008/9, there were 16 England v India Tests, in 5 series. India won 5 of the games, England 2, with 9 drawn. What is more, England failed to win any of the series, losing 3 and sharing 2.

·         Since 2011, the power balance has tipped completely in the opposite direction, with England winning 9 and drawing 2 of the 13 Tests and winning all three series.
 
Despite angry denials, it is hard to avoid the suspicion that the advent of the IPL has brought on a change in mindset of Indian players. There is the opportunity to make millions in a format that does not explore techniques too severely, where a batsman can become a hero in half a dozen deliveries and where a bowler would rather have figures of 0-20 than 5-50, where slips are unheard of and seam movement and swing are discouraged lest they interrupt the flow of sixes over miniscule boundaries. Some players such as David Warner have shown that they can transfer skills successfully from T20 to Test cricket, but many more have built up inflated reputations based on a few overs of slogging whilst, at the same time, convincing themselves that they are rather special and that the basics do not matter.

India’s last five innings in the series have lasted 66.4 overs, 46.4 overs, 43 overs, 61.1 overs and 29.2 overs: 50 wickets in 247 overs, or a fraction over 8 sessions cricket. Just twice did they manage to survive the equivalent of two full sessions of play.

It was suggested that India did no better in 2011, with a team of experienced players but, even in the 4^th Test, which they lost by an innings to complete the 4-0 whitewash, India batted 94 and 91 overs. India lost and lost badly and had a much weaker bowling attack in 2011, but did not suffer the complete meltdown of 2014.

Inevitably, there will be questioning of the worth of the England victory in the light of India’s feeble resistance. “Ah yes! But only two months ago you lost to Sri Lanka”. Strangely, no one made the remark that Australia’s victory last winter was of little value because England’s resistance was so feeble and Australia had lost to the same opponents only a few months earlier. It is hard to know how to value England’s win, as it is to value Australia’s win last winter. In terms of victory margins, England’s dominance at the end of the Indian series has been just as great and possibly even greater than Australia’s was over England. And, like Australia, the turnaround in fortunes after the Chester-le-Street Test, was just as great. Nothing can hide the Sri Lanka defeat and nothing should, but that was against a different, less confident, struggling England team, still trying to work out its identity, with young players still trying to find their feet at this level. Much has been made of the inexperience of the Indian side but, its average age was two years older than England’s (28 to 26).

England can get a lot better with experience, if the remaining weaknesses are addressed successfully and the young players improve with experience. Series against South Africa, Australia and Pakistan (ranked #1, #2 & #4 in the ICC Test rankings, as of yesterday) in the next year will test their mettle, hone or break techniques and give a real idea of where they stand. The Test rankings can change rapidly, as Australia have shown by climbing from mid-table to #1 in a single series, which means that England’s position in the table today may have changed a lot in 12 months. Today, England are at #3, 20 points behind South Africa and 19 behind Australia, with Pakistan losing substantial ground behind when Sri Lanka confirmed their 2-0 win against Pakistan this morning, which pushed Sri Lanka up to #4, 3 points behind England.

The Final Act Of The Series?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Endgame

 

August 17^th 2014

 

457, 391-9d, 295, 342, 330, 178, 152, 161, 148, …

The only questions remaining are what number India will add to this sequence of scores and just when the final defeat will come? With England close to 250 ahead, most people seem to think that the match will end tonight. The biggest doubt may be whether or not England will require the extra half hour. Despite desperate efforts to waste time and a funereal over rate, India have only been able to stretch out the last three Tests a total of 21 sessions in total so far. Few would bet on them extending that much today. It is hard to believe that this match is not even half way through.

You can always think back to 1979 and the amazing Indian fightback in the 4^th Test at Trent Bridge when Sunil Gavaskar’s 221 almost carried India to a successful chase of 438, although their collapse as the target neared meant that the match could have gone either way given an extra 15 minutes of play. Do India have someone capable of matching Gavaskar’s feat? You can imagine it but, in the 1979 series, England at the height of their powers under Mike Brearley only won the 4-Test series 1-0 and India had a strong side, with players of the calibre of Gavaskar, Vengsarkar, Kapil Dev, Viswanath and Venkat. They were never overwhelmed as India have been since the second innings at the Ageas Bowl.

For England, the plan should be to let Root and Jordan continue their destructive partnership (67 in 61 balls, so far), enjoying themselves and trying to inflict more damage of shattered Indian morale. If Root can get his century and Jordan a useful 30 or 40, the lead will be around 300, England can declare well past the psychological barrier of 450 and set about India with a will. Hopefully Jordan and Woakes will be given a chance to do plenty of bowling and to win the match, with Broad and Anderson not being asked to do too much. I stick by my prediction: Chris Woakes will “win”  the match with a 5-for and England will not need the extra half hour. The one thing that might just extend the match into the fourth day is the threat of rain.

India's Tailspin Towards A Crashdive

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The Indian Tailspin

 

August 16^th 2014

 

457, 391-9d, 295, 342, 330, 178, 152, 161, 148, …

That is the series of Indian scores during this series. It is a steady downward progression and suggests that England may not need many more than 300 to win this match by an innings. India, who looked so imperious for two and a half Tests are, increasingly resembling the unconvinced masochist who can only whimper “please make it stop”. Their surrender in the second innings at the Ageas Bowl seems to have knocked all the fight out of them: since then things have only got worse.

Although England had good bowling conditions and a helpful pitch, India had the same later in the day and, while India were 62-6, England are 62-0 and batting with some assurance. If Robson and Cook can see out the first hour, big runs will be there for the taking. Sam Robson, in particular, has come in for some fearful stick since his century against Sri Lanka and, with Alex Hales making an ever-stronger case to play in all three formats for England, Robson desperately needs a century and will know that there is a strong likelihood that this will be his only innings in this Test in which to hang on to his place. Those who have followed County Cricket for years and, particularly Middlesex, know that as far back as 2011 those who knew him felt that he would be a fine Test player. Despite a century against Sri Lanka, his struggles have been obvious.

For the Caribbean series there is a strong probability that some players will be rested and others tried out. It would be no surprise to see both Hales and Robson competing there for the opening spot in the Ashes and Anderson and Broad rested, with Steve Finn asked to lead the attack along with Woakes, Jordan and Plunkett. Certainly, Jordan and Woakes have done a lot to answer their critics in this game; both are still learning their trade at this level and need the experience. I would be prepared to lay a small bet that Woakes will announce himself with a second innings 5-for in an innings win.

For India, it is hard to know where they can go from here with a series against Australia coming up. After encouraging series in South Africa and New Zealand, this has not been a great confidence-inducer. The batting looks terribly fragile, although lower-order runs have helped to massage the evidence a little – the 10^th wicket partnership brought some respectability to the Indian score here – and the bowling has looked less and less penetrative as the series has progressed. Worse still, when chances have been made, as often as not they have been missed and the lack of DRS has, undoubtedly, hurt India badly. India’s slip cordon has cost the side several hundred runs in dropped chances. As things have started to go wrong, heads have dropped. MS Dhoni has done his job with the bat and, early in the series, showed some inventive captaincy but, now, his unwillingness to move for chances that fly between the ‘keeper and first slip and his increasing immobility have hurt his side as much as Matt Prior’s did.

For England, the series is turning out to be sweet and sour. Players such as Jos Buttler and Liam Plunkett have bedded in as first choices. Ballance has been brilliant and Cook, Bell, Anderson and Broad recovered. Woakes and Jordan are bedding in, but India have been so poor in the last three Tests that it is hard to assess where England are really in their recovery process. However, you can only beat what is in front of you and winning this series 3-1 seemed a long way away after the Lords Test: in fact, after Lords, 3-0 to India looked the most likely result. Those who rubbish the England win will conveniently forget that India came into the series with some confidence, pointing to their last two away series and the betting was on a shared series with five draws. India certainly did not look so poor two months ago, but a rejuvenated England side is making them look very poor indeed.

Turning The Series On Its Head

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The turnaround explained in numbers

 

August 14^th 2014

 

I am a firm believer in the maxim that there are “lies, damn lies and statistics”, although that is mainly due to the inventive ways that statistics get misused by people who do not understand them, particularly in cricket. However, a measure of how much this series has changed is seen in a few numbers.

In the first two Tests, India held a definite edge with bat and ball, averaging 3.5 runs per wicket more with the bat than England:

	Runs scored	Wickets lost	Average runs/wicket
India	1485	39	38.1
England	1038	30	34.6

In the last two Test though, the balance has moved violently in the opposite direction:

	Runs scored	Wickets lost	Average runs/wicket
India	821	40	20.5
England	1141	20	57.1

England average almost three times as many runs per wicket as India for these two Tests.

This is reflected in the fortunes of the England bowlers. Compare their combined analysis for the first two Tests with their combined analyses in the last two:

	1st/2nd Test		3rd/4th Test
	Analysis	Average	Analysis	Average
Jimmy Anderson	9-307	34.1	12-138	11.5
Stuart Broad	9-275	30.6	9-113	12.6
Moeen Ali	7-268	38.3	12-168	14.0

Who needs wicket-taking back-up bowlers when the most expensive of your three main strike bowlers is averaging 14? We often forget that, in the famous 2005 Ashes, Australia’s attack was basically a 3-man affair with, even among them, Brett Lee taking his 20 wickets at over 40; who remembers that Michael Kasprowicz and Jason Gillespie were the other two bowlers who started the series, averaging 62.5 and 100 respectively [Tait, Kasprowicz & Gillespie played 7 Tests between them in that series and took a combined 12-760. Mike Kasprowicz was christened “Casper the Friendly Ghost” by the Press for his lack of threat]? Even so, Australia came so close to winning the series. What is most striking though is that in the last two Tests of the current series, the three bowlers who form, England’s “strike trio” are averaging about one third of the runs per wicket that they did in the first two Tests in the series. The three are exercising progressive domination of the Indian batsmen to the extent that only Vijay, Rahane, Kumar & Dhoni average over 26, despite the fact that batsmen prospered so much initially in the series that comfortably the lowest Indian total in the first five innings of the series was 295.

It may well be that England’s surprise spinner lynchpin, Moeen Ali, will get rumbled and may never again be as effective. Certainly, the Australians will set out to destroy him, as they did Graeme Swann. However, as he gets more bowling and develops his skills, it is possible that he will avoid this fate. Despite his relative anonymity in the 4^th Test and suggestions that he has lost his mystery, Ravi Ashwin still has 104 wickets at 28.8 in his first 20 Tests, combined with a batting average of 41.6, making his non-selection a mystery and suggesting that Moeen Ali could do something similar for England with hard work and effort. Certainly, those who questioned Moeen’s right to play for England are looking rather foolish, even if his supporters are feeling slightly bemused by the turn of events. If Moeen can solve his problems with the short ball, he could become a valuable middle-order all-rounder, offering England the serious option to play two spinners without lengthening the tail too much (playing Monty Panesar and Simon Kerrigan, in contrast, would potentially leave England with the frightening prospect of having to bat Jimmy Anderson as high as #8).

A Strange Series Reaches Its Climax

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Does an odd series have new twists?

 

August 13^th 2014

 

 

When, on July 21^st, India went 1-0 up in the Test series, you would not have wanted to bet against the final result being 3-0, or even 4-0. The list of England problems seemed endless:

·         Their strategy was awful.

·         The bowling was insipid and could not remove India’s tail, even if the top-order was more obliging.

·         The batting was struggling.

·         There had not been a 50 opening partnership for six Tests.

·         The Indian seamers were rampant

·         The senior players were not performing.

·         The side was resigned to losing Jimmy Anderson.

·         Stuart Broad looked far from fit.

·         Matt Prior was both unfit and desperately out of form.

·         There was no spinning bowling option worth the name.

·         The captain could not score a run and was being heavily criticised for lack of tactic nous.

Fast forward about seven playing days and, suddenly, all has changed.

·         India’s totals in their last four innings have been 330, 178, 152 & 161, while England have responded with 569-7d, 205-4d and 367. Even the one innings where England were bowled out,  it was batting one short and losing wickets chasing quick runs.

·         Moeen Ali – the Beard that is Feared – has 12 wickets at 14.0 in 3 innings since.

·         Anderson and Broad have 21 wickets in the last two Tests and have often looked unstoppable.

·         Ian Bell has scored 167, 23 & 58, ending any worries about his form.

·         Jos Buttler has come into the side and scored 85 & 70 in his only two innings and, if truth be told, looked more comfortable with the gloves than Matt Prior did.

·         England have won both games at a canter and Alistair Cook scored two fifties in the process.

·         India have looked a totally defeated side, devoid of any fight. To lose 20 wickets in under 90 overs on a good batting wicket at Old Trafford was as bad as anything England produced in Australia.

It is really hard to work out just what has happened to provoke the complete change in fortunes. Evidently, England have had some substantial doses of luck. At the Ageas Bowl Cook, Bell and Buttler should all have been dismissed early in their innings due to dropped catches or questionable decisions not falling India’s way, although Gary Ballance got a bad decision in both innings. At Old Trafford, MS Dhoni made the incredible decision to bat in bowling decisions and see his side 8-4 in quick time. However, it seems to be as much down to a combination of small, “1% factors” as anything. Moeen Ali has changed his bowling fractionally, slightly increasing his speed and tightening his line and India have started to play him like lemmings facing hand grenades; some fans replicated that his 6 wickets at the Ageas were mostly tail-enders but seven of his twelve wickets in the two Tests have been top-six batsmen from a team that is reckoned to be the greatest experts in the world at playing spin bowling. Alistair Cook bowled Chris Woakes with the new ball before Stuart Broad at the Ageas and a riled Broad responded with 6-25 in the 4^th Test. A couple of stunning catches have stuck. India have seemed to have scored an own goal by raising a level three charge at Jimmy Anderson: England have bonded together and come out fighting, while India have seemed distracted.

There has been no big change that can be identified but, overall, the whole dynamic of the series has changed. India have shuffled the balance of their side, changed the attack, changed the batting and seemed to have just unsettled themselves by doing it: the attack now looks toothless and the top order batting is as stable as a blancmange. At Old Trafford, Ravi Ashwin produced some stiff resistance from #8 with 40 and 46*, but was brought in mainly to add some spin threat, which he failed completely to do, scarcely bowling more overs than the much-ridiculed Binny. In three Tests, Binny and Ashwin have 34-1-111-0 between them: the only front-line bowlers on either side without a wicket in the series. All through the series we have been asking why Ravi Ashwin was not playing. We are little closer to understanding.

Do not think though that all things are rosy for England. Cook and Robson have managed just a single 50 partnership in the whole series and that was only 55. Robson’s place is under severe scrutiny. Cook followed up his twin fifties with a failure at Old Trafford and one cannot help the feeling that he has bought himself some time but that a new failure at The Oval would re-open the debate about how the captaincy is affecting him. Moeen Ali is suffering severe problems with short bowling. The England support bowling has been criticised all series: Chris Jordan is not reproducing the fire and accuracy that he found for the ODIs and, for Sussex. Many fans have questioned Chris Woakes’ right to play Test cricket and Liam Plunkett has been injured.

Woakes is an interesting case. He has been the leading all-rounder in the country for several seasons and is still young. He has added some pace in the last year and has bowled good lines, giving little away, but taken just two wickets in three Tests, without ever suggesting that he will threaten to take many more. He has had little chance to show what he can do with the bat, having been left no out in three of his four Test innings, although with a highest score of just 26* and has generally been asked to do a holding job with the old ball. One is reminded of a certain IT Botham who, despite his eye-catching 5-74 in his first innings in Test cricket, admitted that he felt unsure that he was good enough to play at the top level until he made his breakthrough century in New Zealand. The rest, as they say, is history.

If truth be told, Botham’s first three Tests produced 14 wickets for just 242 runs, very different to Woakes’ 2 wickets for 259 but, one wonders if Chris Woakes, like Moeen Ali, just needs one performance to break through in Tests. A player who averages 3.4 wickets per match in First Class cricket with a strike rate under 50 and a bowling average just over 25 is obviously a decent bowler and eight First Class centuries with an average of nearly 39 say that he can bat too.

While many things are coming together for England, there is plenty to play for at The Oval. Cook, Robson and Moeen Ali need runs. Woakes and Jordan need wickets – it is not impossible that Steve Finn may be brought back to replace one or other – and England need the series win, with 3-1 being preferable to show that the side really is on an upswing.

However, there must be a suspicion that India cannot possibly play so badly again. If they do reproduce the spirit of Lords, the series may have a final twist and, England, a nasty surprise. This is no time to relax.

England On The Brink Of Breaking Their Bad Run

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Can England do it this time?

 

July 29^th 2014

 

Unless India produce something remarkable, at some point today England will register their first Test win since Chester-le-Street, eleven Tests ago. England have ridden their luck to be as dominant in this game as India were – after the first two sessions – for much of the game at Lords. At least so far in this game, England have finished the job when their opponents were on the ropes, rather than letting them off the floor to counterattack.

When India were 145-7 after two sessions at Lords and again when England were 211-4 in reply you would have bet on England turning a good position into a winning one. When India fell to 235-7, just over 200 ahead, you felt that the target would be a soft one but, each time, India came roaring back to knock the stuffing out of an opponent who went from thinking “I can’t believe that we are winning” to thinking “I knew that it was too good to be true”. The win for India, when it came, was rapid and deflating because, again, this was a game that England could and should have won. That is why England should not relax until the last Indian is dismissed today: the last three wickets have given England far more problems this summer than the top three, so it was such a pleasant surprise to see 313-7 become 331ao, with the last two wickets falling in quick time in the morning.

Yesterday, one famous TV analyst stated bluntly before play that England would not win. Maybe he was being fatalist to avoid hexing the side. Maybe he felt that, again, England would fall short. What was good was to see England following through when they had an opening. Some of the criticism has been brutal: not to enforce the follow-on was defensive, England would prod on for three sessions and let India escape, the declaration was too late, a two-man attack would never bowl India out, etc. Sometimes you wonder if some of the critics are watching the same match.

Although Chris Jordan was occasionally wild, he was also aggressive in a way that makes things happen, although not always at his end and is a superb slipper. Chris Woakes was tight and mean. The headlines have been for Jimmy Anderson, Stuart Broad and, today, Moeen Ali who is growing in confidence and self-belief with the ball as he is shrinking with the bat , but the support bowlers did their job. Together Woakes and Jordan have bowled 47 overs so far in the Test and done a job for their side. Woakes topped 90mph in the first innings and has been the fastest bowler on either side in the second innings (although Mohammed Shami has bowled the fastest ball in the 2^nd innings) – not bad for someone patronisingly described as a batsman who can bowl.

What was impressive was the intensity with little given away, even when India threatened to make a decent start. In Jimmy Anderson’s last over the six balls were all tightly clustered around the top of middle and leg – no width, no height, no relief.

It may be that those little signs of progress that we have seen through the summer will become clearer if England win today and that the last day at Headingley, where England so nearly pulled off a miraculous escape, will later been seen as the turning point in England’s fortunes. World-beaters, the side is not. Often unfairly maligned, it is.

However, to win, England’s bowlers have to get through Rahane, Sharma, Dhoni, Jadeja, Kumar and Shami, all of whom have proved hard to dislodge at times, before they get Pankat Singh, fast becoming a folk hero with the locals, in their sights. It is not impossible that India could get through the first session without losing a wicket and, if they do, England’s steel will be sorely tested.