Trying To Second-Guess The Selectors

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

That Ashes Squad Announcement

 

September 21^st

 

 

-          Computer issues meant that this never got posted!

 

[12:00 CEST] Even though there is still one round of County Championship games, there is really only one story in town. Everyone is trying to pick their Ashes squad ahead of Monday’s announcement, with names ranging from the bizarre to the obvious.

For the England Ashes squad, thirteen of the names are practically undisputed. The only small area of doubt would be Tim Bresnan’s fitness but, he is expected to be ready. With a shadow squad already in Australia in the form of the Lions there is limited benefit in selecting 17 players instead of 16 because there are only 3 games and, if as England do, you have a pretty good idea of your 13 for Brisbane, you want to get them ready, acclimatised and match fit, rather than reducing their preparation by giving games to players who you do not expect to use. It is not obvious that you would need to pick cover for Tim Bresnan, because you can always call up somebody from the Lions, if necessary. That leaves just three places up for grabs: one batsman and two bowlers, one of whom should ideally be an all-rounder. It is the identity of those three players that is causing the most debate.

The biggest debate is about the second spinner. There is no good option. By far the most successful spinner in the country is Simon Kerrigan, who has 58 wickets at 22.0. Next comes Ollie Rayner of Middlesex with 46 wickets at 22.0. Then Graeme Swann with 40 wickets at 26.3 (from only 8 First Class matches), Monty Panesar, with 38 wickets at 38.0 and Scott Borthwick, with 31 wickets at 31.9.

There is no question that Kerrigan will go to the Lions squad and try to re-habilitate his international career. He is young and had a tough debut. People who know him warned that it was a bit early to try him (Graeme Swann’s international start was equally disastrous and led to him being ignored for eight years). Taking Monty Panesar to Australia would be a huge risk: it might work, but then it could be a disaster unless he really is on the road to rehabilitation from his problems outside the game (too many opportunities for a player to enjoy the nightlife). We do not know that, but the selectors will have checked. He will only go if they are sure that he is up to it. With the greatest of respect to Ollie Rayner – the only German in First Class cricket? – he is a genuine journeyman, although he is showing signs of a greater talent developing, but he is not an international cricketer and probably never will be. Scott Borthwick? Maybe, but you would take him for the experience, hoping against hope that Graeme Swann does not go lame on the day of a match and leave you with him as your only frontline spin option.

The alternative is to use Joe Root and to take an extra seamer. Here Ben Stokes and Chris Jordan will be intensely interested in events. Stokes has had more opportunities, but Jordan has made a tremendous impression in his limited opportunities: 54 wickets at 29.2 with a strike rate of 47.7 says a lot about his strengths and weaknesses – he is fast, he is nasty, but he can be expensive. Stokes has 42 wickets at 25.0, with a strike rate of 45.4, but has had the generally friendlier wickets of Chester-le-Street and a potent, winning attack to support him. Jordan has four 5-fors this season, while Stokes’s best is 4-49. Both though can bat and are potential all-rounders. I would send Stokes with the Lions where I think that he will learn more and take Jordan and tell him to bowl fast and enjoy himself – Jordan is the more likely to be a third seamer, or even to open the attack in a Test.

The final place has to be a batsman. All kinds of names have been suggested: even Ravi Bopara. No less than 29 batsmen have 1000 First Class runs. Rogers, Robson, Klinger, Nash, Joyce and Goodwin are ineligible. Others such as Dent, Eckersley, Katitch, Gidman, Key and Ballance are too young, too old, or just not going to make it at this level (Ballance will tour with the Lions and Dent may possibly). That still leaves interesting options such as Moin Ali, Varun Chopra, James Taylor, Nick Compton, Samit Patel and… Scott Borthwick.

Compton has had a poor season by the standards of 2012, but would be the choice of those who feel that he has been poorly treated. Taylor though has played a Test and averages over 50 this season. Samit Patel has four centuries, including a murderous double, but no other score over 50. I would like the selectors to go with Compton, but suspect that they will go with Taylor, or Borthwick. I also suspect that Moin Ali and Varun Chopra will be in Australia with the Lions.

So, my extra three would probably be Jordan, Borthwick (mainly as a batsman) and Taylor, but I will hold out some faint hopes that Nick Compton is given another chance. However, if the reports of Monty Panesar are positive he will be selected over any of these three.