Starting With Zero Expectation

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Starting With Zero Expectation II

 

March 22^nd 2014

 

England are lucky at the World T20 that they have got what is indisputably the weaker group. India, Pakistan, Australia and the home team, Bangladesh, all go into the other group. In contrast, England face teams that are not well-adapted to Bangladesh: South Africa, weak on spin and, like England, struggling with an uncertain future; Sri Lanka, not the force that they were a few years ago; New Zealand who have been whitewashed in their last two series in Bangladesh (although seemingly on the up) and the surprise package, The Netherlands. England’s luck has held even here: not a few pundits expected Ireland to beat an England team low on confidence and struggling to adapt, probably out of the competition and reeling after more defeats, while Ireland would be playing their ninth game of the tournament. Instead, England will have what should be a much easier opponent.

What happened was pure theatre of the unexpected. The CricInfo text commentator refused even to acknowledge the possibility that qualification from the group was not between Ireland and Zimbabwe. It was a mere anecdote that a big win for The Netherlands could see them leapfrog both. In such circumstances, the best way to increase NRR is to bat first, put up a huge score, and then bowl out your opponent cheaply. The Netherlands decided to bowl, saw Ireland put up a big score – the biggest of the competition by some distance – it looked all over: barely worth mentioning that if The Netherlands chased down the target in 14 overs, they would top the group.  As the batsmen started hammering the ball to all parts, the impossible started to look as if it could happen – the highest number of runs ever in the powerplay; the second fastest 50 ever – as records tumbled but, everyone thought that if one wicket fell, the chase would turn into first a collapse and then a rout.

It did not.

The Netherlands reached their target with several balls to spare, setting more records in their wake – highest run rate in a chase, most sixes, etc. – as well as shell-shocked bowlers. Zimbabwe supporters who started cheering for The Netherlands suddenly realised, to their horror, that the unconsidered enemy had defeated them. The Dutch, dreadful in the warm-ups, have qualified on merit and were superb, beating Ireland and losing to Zimbabwe only to the last ball of the match.

For world cricket it is a fantastic result. For some years Ireland have shown that they can compete with the weakest Full Members, but have been alone. In the World T20, they have been joined by the Dutch, while Nepal, Hong Kong and Afghanistan have all shown flashes of closing the gap to the weaker Full Members right down. And cricket outside the Test world can only be better for knowing that they can hold their own against and, sometimes even overcome, far better funded opponents who have decades of tradition at the top level. For Ireland, actually having lost a game to a fellow Associate may just spur them to even greater things, if a spur were needed still, now that they have a route to Test cricket, with a Full Member play-off and promotion on offer to the best of the rest.

England have lost another player from their squad. However, as it is one whose form was so awful that he could not have played, one wonders if it is actually a very convenient side strain. Luke Wright has been replaced by hard-hitting Craig Kieswetter, now freed of the gloves. Kieswetter is young still (26), has a couple of Big Bash 50s this winter and made his only ODI century in Bangladesh, so his may well be a very good selection to add some beef to the England middle order. Crazy as it may seem, I begin to like the look of the England side and it may only need one win for the team to start to show that they are not there as a supporting act.

The way that the group has panned out, England have a good shot at the semi-Finals and, when you get there, anything can happen. Beat New Zealand and either South Africa or Sri Lanka and the side will qualify. If England lose today, they may struggle to win any match in their group: such is the element of momentum in T20.

In the short formats, form can change fast. I recall how, in 2004/05 England played a 7-match ODI series v South Africa. England won the first and tied the second (GO Jones stumped Hall off Kabir on the last ball of the match). South Africa were on a run of 13 defeats, broken by that tie. They then won the next four to take the series (the 6^th match was washed out).

Last night Pakistan were at their worst against India in a match that, for once, was played on the field rather than being hyped off it, with the actual game merely a side-show. India looked a decent unit, no more. Pakistan cannot play this badly again… can they?