With A Little Bit Of Luck?

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

Is England’s Luck Turning?

 

June 1^st 2015

 

On occasion you have a game that defies all logic. Only a week ago England won a game at Lord’s that had the word “draw” writ on it so large that it could be seen all round England. What happened? New Zealand imploded when a single sensible partnership would have saved them the match. Batsman after batsman was determined to go down in a blaze of glory when a fifty made in three hours was what was required in the match situation.

For a few days everything was hunky-dory. Until the 2^nd Test started, that was. Outwardly it was similar: top order collapse by New Zealand, blazing counter-attack, England chasing the game. Then the script changed. Already at the Close on day 3 England were facing their highest-ever successful fourth innings chase when New Zealand were 338-6. Only three time have England chased 300+ successfully and never more than the 332-7 made to win at Melbourne in 1928-29. All logic suggested a short blast for runs and a target of 380-400.

Just 19 times in 2162 Tests has a side made 400 in the fourth innings and only four times has a 400+ target been chased down. In ten of the nineteen cases the side batting fourth has lost. Nothing, it seemed could save England from a heavy defeat.

With rain threatening and the weather forecast distinctly dodgy, Brendon McCullum decided to prolong the England agony. 116 runs were added, albeit in only 16 overs, until England were left with a target of 455 to win: 37 more than the Test record and a total only ever surpassed once in the fourth innings of a Test (in the timeless Test at Durban in 1939 when the match was drawn after ten days with England 654-5, chasing 696 to win). As the rain closed in, McCullum may have wondered if half an hour more might have allowed him to nip out a couple of wickets before the monsoon arrived and play ended for the day.

Records are made to be broken, but England would need to surpass their highest ever successful 4^th innings chase by 123, manage only their fourth ever successful chase over 300 and absolutely destroy the highest ever successful chase in a Test match and this after two days of receiving a fairly brutal cauliflower ear.

Good luck to them if they can do it.

However, rain and a delayed declaration have given England an unexpected (and probably undeserved) chance to save the Test and win the series. Having shelled catch after catch, there is just a chance that some luck will finally go England’s way. It will take some very dogged batting and someone will have to make a big century, but it can be done.

So ridiculously tight is the middle of the ICC Test Rankings that a 1-0 win in the series would push England up from 5^th to 3^rd and drop New Zealand from 3^rd to 7^th. With New Zealand ranked ahead of England, even a 1-1 result would drop New Zealand a place to 4^th, with India rising to 3^rd, while England would cut the gap behind them.

One thing is certain, unless most of tomorrow is lost to rain or England suffer the most abysmal collapse, this Test series will smash the record for the highest run aggregate in a 2-Test series. Just 85 more runs will make this the most prolific 2-Test series ever, with runs coming at just a fraction less than 4-an-over, also a record for a series in which more than 2200 runs have been scored. However, although the rain is slowly clearing from the west, Leeds has been under the rain late into the night. The ability of the ground to drain and the efficiency of the ground staff may be sorely tested in the morning.