Rolling The Dice
September 18th
2015
Mid-September
and barring an “if” and a “but” all is settled in the Championship, which may
be why the focus have been even more sharply on the first England squad of the
winter – although there is just a very brief break before the first 2-day tour
match starts on October 5th.
There was
also the very low-key announcement that the Championship will stay at 16 games
next season, leading to a celebration that fan power has won. However, as the
key element of the change is to implement a switch to 8 teams in Division 1 and
10 in Division 2, which requires 2 down/1 up, that could only be done in 2016
anyway, for a 2017 change. Meanwhile, significantly, more and more counties
have come out publically against the reduction in the Championship and other
avenues for change are being explored. If change is to be in the form of a
greatly modified One Day Cup, with the Championship untouched, not too many
people will be unhappy with the outcome of the debate.
Late
season performances are anything but irrelevant. Quite apart from the mundane
issue of contracts (Buggins of Relegationshire may just save his career with
the county, despite an average of 15 with the bat, if he can boost it with a
couple of tons in the last two games). A 150, scored two days before the selectors meet
to pick the winter touring parties catches the eye far more easily than 600
runs in May. And there is the not inconsiderable matter that two, late wins can
lead to a side passing from being relegation-threatened to winning prize money
After
several cracking late seasons, 2015 is a bit of a damp squib. Rain has taken
its toll in the penultimate round of games. Some play was possible in all
games, although Gloucestershire and Kent managed barely an hour of play before
the last two days were washed-out. At face value it looked as if only the games
at Chester-le-Street and at Manchester (amazingly almost untouched by rain)
might possibly produce a result, but even the game at Chester-le-Street looked
to have “draw” written all over it. Strange things can happen though at this
time of season. Worcestershire decided to take a desperate gamble against a
Durham side in free fall, setting a modest target to give themselves extra
overs to take ten wickets. What was less expected was that the much-weakened Yorkshire
would set up a finish against Hampshire by declaring overnight at 97-4 in
return for a Hampshire forfeit to leave themselves a tricky target that rapidly
became mountainous with three quick wickets.
What
Sussex and Somerset made of this at Hove is anyone’s guess. Both knew that a
high-scoring draw would see both all but safe barring wins for the bottom two.
When Sussex recovered from 171-6 to reach 400 comfortably and claim maximum
points, nothing seemed more certain than that the favour would be returned: 13
points each, thanks very much and see you next season. In the end, Sussex only
claimed 11 points because an exhausted Marcus Trescothick declared early with
the batting points in the bank and 210* to his personal account; it at least
avoided the suspicion that Somerset might suffer a strange batting collapse
once they crossed 400. Maybe the news that Yorkshire and, more surprisingly,
Durham had recovered to cruise to their targets calmed the nerves and also
ended any lingering possibility that Durham might be sweating on the last
afternoon of the season. The upshot is that Worcestershire – cricket’s
equivalent of the yo-yo – are relegated… again and that Hampshire are all but
down: they need a 15 points swing with Sussex and a 17 point swing with
Somerset to stay up. In other words, they must beat Nottinghamshire at Trent
Bridge, take maximum batting and bowling points and hope that both Somerset and
Sussex lose and, even then, 7 bonus points would see Somerset safe[1]
(2 bonus points in a rain-soaked draw would also save Somerset), but Sussex,
needing 9 to be safe, can only lose and stay up if Hampshire win should
Hampshire fail to get maximum bonus points. Either way, both teams know that they
only need to equal Hampshire’s result to be safe; Hampshire have to better
theirs and, even then, it might not be enough.
While
there is a frequent complaint that Team England is a closed shop and that it is
harder to get out of the side than into it, there is the parallel complaint
that county form does not count for enough in selection. England face two,
completely different problems this winter. First they play 3 Tests in the UAE
where Pakistan whitewashed them last time. Then four Tests in South Africa
starting in December. Spin is expected to dominate in the former. Pace will
dominate in the latter. In the UAE England will look to have the option to play
three front-line spinners. In South Africa even one spinner may not get many
overs with a pace-loaded attack. In South Africa England will look to play a
side very similar to that which beat Australia this summer. In the UAE that
tactic would almost certainly be suicidal. At the same time, remembering the
last tour, England will want to play three seamers.
The only
way to have your cake and eat it is to play all-rounders. Thus England have
taken the pragmatic step of picking three spinners who can bat. Adam Lyth blew
his chance of a reprieve by following 25 & 14 v Middlesex with 0 & 12 v
Hampshire – he might have saved himself with runs in those two games to show
that he was back in form – so a new opener was needed. England have covered
both bases by picking Alex Hales and Zafir Ansari. The Ansari pick was widely
predicted: it gives England the option of playing him as opener and third
spinner. 771 runs @ 36.7 and 44 wickets @ 31, albeit in Division 2, are decent
credentials. He also realised the importance of performing in September: 106
& 99 in his only two innings in the last two rounds and match figures of
5-99 v Derbyshire. With Moeen Ali bowling off breaks, Adil Rashid bowling leg
spin and Zafir Ansari bowling slow left arm, England will have plenty of variety
available.
With
Ansari opening, England can easily play 3 seamers, 3 spinners and still bat
down to #9. A potential order might be: Cook, Ansari, Bell, Taylor, Root,
Bairstow, Stokes, Ali, Rashid, Broad, Anderson.
For South
Africa, it would be a major shock if Zafir Ansari were to be required – he has
been named in the Lions party, suggesting that he will be otherwise engaged – and
promoting Moeen Ali, which is an alternative to Ansari opening, would be a move
asking to fail. It is still possible that Nick Compton could be pressed back
into service. Of all the openers tried since Andrew Strauss retired he has by
far the best record and has experience at this level. He has also been one of
the chief architects of the 2015 Middlesex miracle, grinding out tough runs in
difficult conditions when the batting around him has crumbled. 1100 runs @ 40.7
may not look so great, but he has specialised in scoring 50s that were worth a
century in better conditions. Compton has finished the season strongly with a
match-winning 71 v Durham and a match-winning 149 v Yorkshire, this last in one
of the greatest turnarounds in a match since 1981.
There
have been suggestions that England have changed to a revolving door selection policy.
There is a little of that in the opener situation, but much of that has been
inevitable. Root, Carberry, Robson and Lyth were all given a decent run but
failed to produce the goods, while Jonathon Trott was the only real error: he
should never have been put in that position and Lyth should have played instead
of him – who knows? Lyth might have found his feet and become a success. There
is also a suggestion that Gary Ballance has been harshly treated, but he has
struggled too for Yorkshire, almost half his runs came in just one innings and
even then he averages just 32.5 (although that is more than Adam Lyth). Ballance
will come again, but James Taylor simply demanded selection and Alex Hales has
scored stacks of runs in Division 1 with some incredibly punishing innings. One
suspects that Hales will not get his Test debut unless there is an injury, but
the experience of being on tour will only do him good.
It is a
pragmatic party, designed for the job in hand. Do not be fooled into thinking
that the South Africa party will be the same. England want to win this series
and erase the memory of 2012. A win will send them to the greater challenge of
South Africa in great heart.
[1] The
tie-breakers are (1) Most wins, Hampshire would have an advantage over Somerset
(4 against 3), but would be even with Sussex; (2) Fewest defeats, Hampshire
would have the advantage against both with 6 on this scenario against 8 for
Sussex (Somerset would have 7, but will already have lost on the first
tie-breaker).
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