South Africa v England: Fourth Test, Renaissance, or Mirage

South Africa v England: Fourth Test

Renaissance, or Mirage

January 24^th 2020

While not as bad as in the worst phases of the ‘80s and ‘90s, recent times have not been good for England. Since beating Sri Lanka 3-0 in Winter 2018/19, their record is:

L L W W L D W L W L D L W W

A win-loss record of 6-6 disguises an unexpected defeat in the Caribbean, a struggle to beat Ireland (including a shambolic fist innings collapse), a lucky series draw against Australia and defeat in New Zealand. Not to mention a shambolic start against a South African side on a long losing streak.

England are very much in a transitional phase. They are have had a sample of life without Jimmy Anderson, (Sir) Alastair Cook is long gone and few of the side could be sure of their places before the series. Five of the XI that started the Ashes in August are missing and two more have changed their position in the batting order. Whereas, before, the search was for one opener, over the last two years it has been for two. The #3 slot has passed from hand to hand like a grenade with a dodgy pin. At least one middle-order slot has been open for as long as anyone can remember. And, for one reason or another, England’s spin options have dropped like flies: in Sri Lanka in 2018, Jack Leach, Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid took 48 wickets between them in 3 Tests; none of them is available in South Africa and, potentially, none will be available for selection for Sri Lanka.

Sam Curran, Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope are still just 21. Dominic Bess is 22. Jofra Archer and Dom Sibley, 24. This is a very young England side. It is also an England side that has been fortunate enough to catch a South African team in a tail spin. In normal series, a side that was so pole-axed by poor preparation, poor form and a Norovirus epidemic, would never have been able to come back after a crushing 1^st Test defeat. This series though seems to resemble some of the Ashes series of the 1990s, in which an over-confident visiting Australia would be ambushed in the 1^st Test, in typical English conditions, before waking up and sweeping all before them.

While there is no guarantee that it is, genuinely a sign of better times, Zak Crawley and Dom Sibley have managed back-to-back 50+ opening stands for the first time since the halcyon days of Cook and Compton in 2009. With Rory Burns out injured – and doubtful for Sri Lanka – Zak Crawley, who was expected to spend his winter giving the bowlers net practice, has had to step in as opener. From looking frankly out of his depth initially, Crawley has grown in confidence, as his sequence of scores – 1, 4, 25, 44, 66 – has shown. It is no guarantee of runs against Australia or India, but suggests that he is learning. Similarly, Dom Sibley’s first five Test innings produced just 71 runs, despite 247 balls of defiance. The next four have produced 247 runs, in 575 balls. He has been sealing one end and allowing the batsman at the other end to play with more freedom.

Plan “A” for Sri Lanka was for Keaton Jennings to come back, given his record of success in Asia and to partner Sibley, with Crawley missing out. In fact, there was a real possibility that Jennings could have come straight in for Burns in the 3^rd Test. In the end, Crawley did just enough to encourage the selectors to keep their trust in him. In fact, Crawley has equalled the Test record, of setting a Test-best score in his first five innings; the last batsmen to manage this feat were Harold Larwood and Ian Peebles, back in 1928. He will have to go some to extend the record to six consecutive innings, but has done enough to suggest that Joe Denly may be the batsman at risk when Rory Burns comes back. While Denly can point to 6x50 and to being dismissed in single figures just three times in twenty-five Test innings, his inability to convert starts into scores has left him with an average of just over 30. He has not broken through. While he has turned-in some useful spells of leg spin, the original idea that he could play as an all-rounder has been shown to be far too ambitious. It could be that the Sri Lanka series starts with Jennings, Sibley and Crawley filling the top three slots and Denly not even sure of figuring as first batting reserve.

It is no time to start jumping up and down and shouting “hurrah!!” A dreadful lesson in over-optimism with first steps comes from the last series in India. In that series, Alastair Cook formed such a successful partnership, first with Haseeb Hameed (who scored 31, 82, 13, 25, 9 & 59*) and then with Keaton Jennings (112, 0, 1 & 54), that it looked as if England had two openers for the next decade or more [lest we forget, England lost that series 4-0, with one draw]. Hameed first broke his hand and then had an operation to fix his breathing and has been a shadow of himself ever since. Although his 2019 season ended with 159* for Lancashire 2^nd XI, it was one of the few innings over 20 that he has produced in the last two seasons and was not enough to save him from being released in September. He will start 2020 with Nottinghamshire, knowing that his cricketing career is on the line. Similarly, Keaton Jennings has had some patches of almost miraculous batting form in County cricket but, despite two Test centuries, has just one other 50 and an average of only 25 in Test cricket.

However, with Rory Burns making a decent fist of opening in Tests and Dom Sibley seemingly growing into the role, it looks as if there is a chance that the search for two openers may be coming to an end. With Denly batting at #3, Joe Root has been able to move back to his preferred place at #4. Ben Stokes is growing into a #5 batsman who bowls a few, testing overs when needed and Ollie Pope has 61*, 3, 135* and 22* against South Africa, after a breakthrough 75 in the 2^nd Test in New Zealand. After a difficult start in Tests, Ollie Pope has taken his chance and looks like a genuine Test player.

Given that South Africa seem to be declining rapidly in this series and that the opposition over the next eight months is relatively weak – Sri Lanka away and then the West Indies and the mercurial, capricious Pakistan at home – there is a chance for players such as Pope and Crawley to bed in.

Even if light is appearing from 1-6 in the line-up, 7-11 is still far from clear. Word has it that neither Stuart Broad, nor Jimmy Anderson will go to Sri Lanka. The selectors have run out of patience with Jonny Bairstow and Jos Buttler has done little to convince this winter, despite getting a series of starts. With spin likely to be used a lot in Sri Lanka, it could be that the selectors will be trying to locate Ben Foakes’ telephone number, having presumably erased it from their mobiles by accident.

In theory, the fast bowling resources are, like the spin resources, rich. Jofra Archer and Mark Wood form a potential new ball pairing to make any side jump around.  Sam Curran and Chris Woakes have shown a lot of capability and, with Ben Stokes as the joker in the pack, England can play a strong seam attack, especially in home conditions, without calling on Broad or Anderson. Sadly though, Joe Root’s handling of Joffra Archer has been poor and the result has been him missing three consecutive Tests through injury and playing when only half-fit on other occasions. Archer has been used as a workhorse, rather than as a shock-bowler. The lesson seems to have been learnt with Mark Wood, but it is still to be seen if he can play consecutive Tests without breaking down. Similarly, there are doubts about the capability of Chris Woakes and Sam Curran to deliver consistently away from England. Curran adds variety to the attack, but there is a suspicion that, at his pace, he needs the new ball to be a threat if there is no help in the conditions. There is some justifiable frustration with Chris Woakes that his 22 wickets at 54.9 away, are in stark contrast to 70 wickets at 23.5 at home; in English conditions, Woakes is a demon bowler, away from home, all too often he is cannon-fodder. Similarly, he averages 19.3 with the bat in 14 away Tests, but almost double – 35.2 – in 19 Tests at home.

What of the spinners? In 2018 in Sri Lanka it was Jack Leach, Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali. Adil Rashid has stopped playing First Class cricket. Moeen has taken an indefinite break from the game. And Jack Leach has serious medical issues. Leach suffers from Crohn, a degenerative disease of the digestive system that is worsened by stress and which makes him more susceptible to illness. Over the winter, the combination of Crohn and Norovirus has weakened him so badly that one wonders if he will be fit to go to Sri Lanka in March.

The loss of Moeen Ali has been as tragic as it has been unnecessary. Despite a very respectable Test record, particularly in England, where he averages 35.0 with the bat and 32.5 with the ball, he feels that he has been used as the scapegoat whenever things have gone wrong. He has batted in every position down to #9 in Tests and has rarely had a stable, defined role in the side. The result has been a burn-out that leaves severe doubt as when he will play Tests again, having not played since an unhappy outing in the 1^st Ashes Test. Lest we forget what we are missing, in his previous three series, he had taken 12 wickets in two Tests v India, 14 in three Tests v Sri Lanka and 14 in three Tests against the West Indies. But, as his bowling enjoyed success, the fun went out of his batting to the point that his last seventeen Tests have produced just two fifties and a top score of 60. A Test batting average that was stable around 35 for a year in 2016/17, has dropped to 29. At the same time, his bowling average has dropped from 42 to 37.

Adil Rashid is another sad case. He was identified as a future star early and first toured with England in 2008, but did not make a Test debut until 2015. Of his nineteen Tests, eighteen have been against Asian sides. In white ball cricket, he is frequently the go-to bowler, who is thrown the ball when a desperate situation has to be recovered but, in Tests, he is a shadow of the player who could easily have slotted-in at #3 in 2010 and formed a dangerous spin-partnership with Graeme Swann: in that season, he scored his runs at 45.8 and took 57 wickets at 31.3. Seldom though can a player with ten First Class centuries have been asked to bat regularly as low as #10 in Tests. There is a strong suspicion that his talents have be wasted by England, his bowling mistrusted and misused and the player himself, dreadfully mishandled. It has all ended with him signing a white-ball-only contract with Yorkshire and, having bowled while injured during England’s World Cup triumph, needing an operation to repair the damage. Will Adil Rashid play another Test for England? One suspects not: the cynics will snort that he should never have played a Test in the first place, but they miss the point.

The result is that, while Dom Bess will certainly go to Sri Lanka, who will partner him is totally uncertain. Matt Parkinson is in South Africa for experience, but is, most definitely, not ready to play Tests (he played just four Division 2 games for Lancashire in 2019). Just as England turned to the almost unknown Monty Panesar in 2005, there is a real prospect that another be-turbaned player – Amar Virdi – who is just 21, may get an unexpected Test debut. However, Bess, Virdi and, if he makes himself available, Moeen, are all off-break bowlers, making it imperative that England move heaven and earth to get Jack Leach fit and to keep him healthy and thus have someone to turn the ball the other way.

Spinners who have been tried by England in recent years, such as Mason Crane and Liam Dawson have fallen away: the former was, by far, the more successful of the two in 2019, with 10 wickets at 54, while the latter took just 5 at 108. Picking either would be a move of desperation.

Where England are lucky is that a series against a struggling South Africa is followed by one against Sri Lanka side that has lost the core of experienced players that have carried it for years and then, by an early-season series against a West Indian side that does not enjoy that time of year in England.

Young players who have shown a glimpse of the future in South Africa will have a chance to consolidate their position before the much sterner Test that Pakistan will present, assuming that they are up for the challenge. If England cannot at least compete strongly in Sri Lanka and see off the West Indians, the gains in South Africa will soon be forgotten and any, small chance that England can cut the gap to Australia and India in the ICC World Test Championship table will disappear: a measure of just how difficult that task will be, is that, even if Australia do not score another point in the next few months, England need to win their next five Tests to get ahead of them in the table.

England are a long, long way behind India and Australia. And, in Winter 2020/21, the challenge will be to go to India and do better than the 4-0 defeat last time. That tour will be the measure of progress made.

World Cup 2019, Days 34-39: Pakistan and Bangladesh fall short, New Zealand hang on

 

World Cup 2019

Days 34-39: Pakistan and Bangladesh fall short, New Zealand hang on

July 7^th 2019

 

Over the last week the configuration of the Semi-Finals has been confirmed. The top four are indeed the four teams that have seemed likely to qualify since the first week of this ridiculously extended marathon.

All through, people have been talking of the parallels with the 1992 tournament, played in Australia and New Zealand. Parallels there are, but nowhere near as strong as the Pakistan fans have been trying to believe. That tournament started with New Zealand crushing all opposition, winning their first seven games. As in 2019, Pakistan’s fate was firmly tied to New Zealand’s. While, in 2019, fate determined that Pakistan had to win their last game by a huge margin to pip New Zealand to the last qualifying spot, in 1992, they had to beat the previously unbeaten New Zealand in their last group match to pip Australia. What fewer people remember is that the other two Semi-Finalists were South Africa and England, with the Final between Pakistan and England.

In 1992, New Zealand showed how little group phrase form, meant by following their seven runs on the trot with two defeats: the defeat to Pakistan in the final group game was then followed by a second defeat to Pakistan in the Semi-Final. New Zealand lost momentum at the critical moment and went home. Again, the abiding sense in 2019, is that their campaign has, once more, deflated at the critical moment.

In 1992, England lost their last two groups games – to New Zealand and to Zimbabwe – before winning the notorious Semi-Final, in which South Africa’s target of 21 from 13 balls was reduced, after a brief rain interruption, first to 21 from 7 balls and then to 21 from 1 ball: not one of the ICC’s more glorious moments. And India? They finished above just Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe: their only high point of a poor campaign was a win against Pakistan.

In another sense, the parallels are weak too. New Zealand, England and Pakistan all averaged totals around 200 in their group games. Pakistan’s average total was 203, New Zealand’s was 201 and England’s, exactly 200, with South Africa averaging 190. It was cricket from a different age, in which a side batting first and setting 240 knew that they were very likely to win.

Anyway, back in 2019, which is what concerns us here, we have ended up with a first Semi-Final between India and New Zealand and a second, between Australia and England.

Undoubtedly, India are the happiest of the sides, as theirs looks unquestionably the easiest task. They must have been expecting to have to play England at Edgbaston, scene of their only defeat so far in the tournament. Instead, a remarkably tepid Australian performance in their last group game has allowed the Indians to top the group.

The week has consisted of a series of final eliminators. It started, with India hanging-on to beat Bangladesh in a tight finish. A margin of 28 runs looks safe enough, but Bangladesh fought to the finish. With 36 required from the last 3 overs and a set batsman at one end, who was hitting well, Bangladesh were closing on an extraordinary win and the chance to keep their hopes alive. India though are made of stern stuff. Mohammad Saifuddin took a single from the fourth ball of Jasprit Bumrah’s final over, exposing the tail-ender and Bumrah responded magnificently, bowling Rubel Hossain and Mustafizur Rahman with his last two deliveries. India were through to the Semi-Final and Bangladesh were out, but not before showing that they are no longer a push-over in English conditions.

The scene was set for England’s showdown with New Zealand at Chester-le-Street. Once England won the Toss, you suspected that New Zealand’s task might be a tough one and, by the time the score reached 104-0 from 15 overs, with Roy and Bairstow scoring at seven-an-over, that task became a massive one. By the time that England had their mid-innings wobble, there were good runs in the bank and it was obvious that the pitch was not the flat one that Roy and Bairstow had made it seem. At 14-2 after 5.2 overs, already the New Zealand challenge was fading fast. Williamson and Taylor started to fashion a recovery, although the RRR was starting to climb alarmingly even before they were both run out in consecutive overs. Williamson can feel unlucky, but Wood’s magnificent dive to get a finger on Taylor’s drive, deflecting it on the stumps, made its own luck. Taylor then committed suicide, going for an inexistent second run, in what seemed almost an act of contrition. And that was that. New Zealand were heavily beaten, but not quite heavily enough to give Pakistan a realistic chance of going ahead in Net Run Rate.

The West Indies – Afghanistan clash was more a case of “A Comedy of Errors” than “Great Expectations”. Afghanistan, once again, failed to close out a win when it was there for the taking against an opponent that was offering plenty of facilities. With 68 required from the last 6 overs and a set batsman, Afghanistan should have gone closer. A 23-run margin was another exercise in frustration for them, while the West Indies will reflect how a brilliant start to the campaign has become a very poor finish.

And so to Pakistan v Bangladesh. The calculators had come out and their news was not good. If Pakistan bowled first, they were, mathematically, eliminated. No combination of scores would save them. If they batted first, they needed to win by a hundred runs more than the world record margin for an ODI. Realistically, any score under 450 gave them no chance.

Pakistan won the Toss and batted. Would they go after the bowling from the word go and try to work a miracle? No. They chugged along in a tuk-tuk set at four and a half per over and just barely reached the minimum score of 308 required to avoid automatic elimination. It took Bangladesh just eleven balls to score the eight runs required to confirm New Zealand’s qualification. That they won by a large margin, with a lot to spare, makes Pakistan’s lack of ambition all the more frustrating.

And so, to the last two matches, which would decide the top two in the table and the Semi-Final crosses.  

India blew Sri Lanka away. It was not much of a contest. Despite another wonderful innings from Angelo Matthews, Bumrah was far too good for the rest of the batting. Centuries for Sharma and Rahul, an opening partnership of 189 at better than a run-a-ball and the rest was just net practice. Bumrah is, without doubt, the bowler of the tournament and India’s biggest weapon in the knock-out stage.

Logic dictated that in the afternoon match, Australia would push aside their pet whipping-boys and top the table, setting-up a Semi-Final with New Zealand. What happened though was that the Australian attack, which had seemed to get progressively stronger and better-balanced after some rather anaemic early performances, had one of its least-threatening days of the tournament. The South African top four, which had shown the reliability of a jalopy that was condemned to the scrapyard, fired. Century for du Plessis. Van der Dussen fell just short of one of his own. Fifty for de Kock. 34 for Markram. Finch fell in the third over. Khawaja retired hurt in the fifth with a calf strain and Steve Smith fell in the seventh. Australia were effectively 33-3. Warner and Carey kept Australia in the chase, but wickets always fell before they could get their noses in front and, although the final margin was just 10 runs, it felt like a much heavier defeat.

India finish top and play New Zealand at Old Trafford on Tuesday.

Australia play England at Edgbaston on Thursday.

One assumed that India will cruise into the Final, notwithstanding a suspect middle-order. New Zealand seem to be fading. The other Semi-Final is intriguing. Australia won the group game very comfortably, but against an England side that was struggling a bit without Roy at the top and without the four-pronged pace attack that served them so well at the end of the campaign. Australia have, themselves, looked vulnerable at times, although David Warner and Steve Smith have had wonderful campaigns. They will be thinking: win the Toss, bat first and win. It is true that England’s three defeats came, chasing and that runs on the board have been important through the tournament but, before those three defeats, England had had fifteen consecutive, successful chases. It will be interesting to see how the two sides approach the match.

 

 

World Cup 2019, Days 32-33: And Then There Were Five…

 

World Cup 2019

Days 32-33: And Then There Were Five…

July 1^st 2019

 

With just six qualifying matches remaining, only Australia are guaranteed a Semi-Final place. Even India run a slight – albeit, very slight – risk of not making it through and, at the same time, facilitating Bangladesh’s path to an unexpected Semi-Final place.

Such is the impact of recent results that, were India to fall to a surprise defeat tomorrow to Bangladesh, their Semi-Final place would hang on not losing to Sri Lanka in their final group match and Bangladesh not beating Pakistan in their last game.

It is an unlikely scenario but, as they are now direct rivals for a Semi-Final place and play each other in the penultimate round of matches, were India to lose their last two matches and Bangladesh win their last two, both teams would be on five wins. There would also be a Net Run Rate swing that could threaten to put Bangladesh ahead. The swing would need to be 0.25 runs per over per match – equivalent to an average margin of about 30-40 runs in each game. Theoretically, Pakistan could also eliminate India but, in this case, the margins would have to be much larger, as Pakistan’s NRR is much worse than Bangladesh’s and they have just a single match to improve it.

The bottom line: such is the credit that they have accumulated from their victories, that even two narrow defeats are sufficient for India to qualify comfortably for the Semi-Finals but, the mere thought that, at this stage, they could somehow still miss out, imbues the match tomorrow with some tension.

New Zealand and England do not have that comfort. Their play each other on Wednesday in their own, respective final contests. Here, the situation is simple: the winner is guaranteed a Semi-Final place; if the match were to be abandoned without a result, probably both would qualify. The loser though would be at the mercy of other results. If New Zealand lose, they would be vulnerable to a big Pakistan win against Bangladesh or, even more so, to Bangladesh beating both India and Pakistan. New Zealand will, at least, start the match knowing if the second of these scenarios has already been ruled out.

If England lose, they would be dependent on the following set of results: either, Bangladesh would have to lose to India and then beat Pakistan; or, then India would need simply to avoid a big loss to Bangladesh and then the Bangladesh v Pakistan match would have to be abandoned with no result.

What of Sri Lanka? Sri Lanka can reach England’s ten points by beating India, but the first tie-breaker is number of wins: England have five, Sri Lanka can only reach four. Sri Lanka are eliminated mathematically, whatever Net Run Rate may say when qualifying ends, however unfair that may be.

So, still we have many permutations and the calculators may be working overtime, albeit in some of the less likely scenarios.  So, how have we got here?

After England’s desperately poor performances against Sri Lanka and Australia, you would not have got good odds on India being sent packing, particularly not on a ground that was reckoned to be particularly favourable to the Indian attack. And even less when England took a punt on playing four bowlers capable of hitting 90mph (144km/h) and dropped Moeen Ali, while India went for a balanced attack. The reckoning was that England would lose top-order wickets to Shami and Bumrah and would then commit suicide against the spinners in a desperate effort to get runs on the board, while the pace attack would be hit to all parts with gay abandon by the powerful Indian batting.

What no one anticipated is that, even though Bumrah permitted no liberties, Shami would be attacked at the other end to such effect that Bumrah’s incredible economy was irrelevant. The first PowerPlay still ended with England 47-0 and looking comfortable. The next seven overs produced 77 runs, as Pandya’s first two overs went for an eye-watering 23. Even though England had a mid-innings wobble, 337-7 was always going to test India’s suspect middle order, especially as it would be a World Cup record chase.

India’s problem was passivity. While England scored 13x6 and 27x4, with Jos Buttler producing a cameo of 20 in 8 balls when quick runs were needed, India, in contrast, played three straight maidens from Chris Woakes and had the lowest PowerPlay score of the tournament to date. Although they reached the boundary 35 times, just once it was for a maximum and that one came in the last over of the match, with the contest already decided. Then, bizarrely, after the match, Kohli complained about the short boundary! Virat, if it is so short, get the ball over it!!!!

Each time that India threatened to put together a match-winning partnership, a wicket fell. Liam Plunkett dismissed Kohli, Pant and Pandya each time one of them was starting to look dangerous. Woakes removed Sharma. Then came the most bizarre part of an unusual match. Adil Rashid came back with 95 required from 54 balls. There was a collective intake of breath: if this over went for 20-25, Indian would be right back in the match, but Dhoni and Pandya just pushed five singles. Just four boundaries came between the 41^st and 48^th over. However well England bowled, the lack of aggression from the batsmen left the fans dumbfounded and boos ran around the ground as the Indian fans saw the lack of intent, before the stands started to empty as the reality of imminent defeat hit home.

The official margin was 31 runs, but it felt like a much heavier loss than that. The Indian air of invincibility was well and truly exploded.

West Indies v Sri Lanka was a dead rubber, but with pride at stake. This was a case of contrasting fortunes. The West Indies started the tournament with a thunderclap of raw pace and aggression and, after their shattering, narrow loss to Australia and their pummelling by England, have got poorer with each passing game. Sri Lanka looked awful at the start of the tournament but, gradually, have gained self-belief.

Sri Lanka looked set for 350+ after a wonderful century from young Avishka Fernando, but were reined back in slightly. Even so, 339 was a big target for a West Indies side shorn of all confidence and looking less united and more apathetic with each game. At 22-2 after five overs one thought that the match might end quickly. That it did not was down to a marvellous century by Nicholas Pooran – another young player – and a good fifty for Fabian Allen. Had Allen not run himself out with 57 needed from 36 balls, the West Indies would probably have won, although a cynic would say that they would have found a way to lose the game somehow.

Pooran kept fighting: 31 from 18 was doable. With the main bowlers bowled out in a desperate attempt to slow the West Indian charge, on came Angelo Matthews for his first bowl in eighteen months. His first delivery was a pretty rank one outside off. Pooran could have hit it anywhere, but edged it through to the ‘keeper. Game over. Matthews and Malinga kept their heads and the West Indian challenge evaporated as swiftly as it had earlier re-appeared. Matthews ended with 1-6 from his two overs at the death. If those are his last two overs in cricket, it is not a bad way to end his bowling career.

Tomorrow: Bangladesh v India. India are massive favourites. All logic says that they will seal their Semi-Final spot and end Bangladesh’s slim hopes, but then, all logic said that England would beat Sri Lanka.  

World Cup 2019, Days 29-31: New Zealand and England at Risk

 

 

 

World Cup 2019

Days 29-31: New Zealand and England at Risk

June 29^th 2019

 

Odd events at Headingley. Very odd.

At 17:29, UK time, Pakistan’s World Cup hopes were hanging by a thread. The Afghan spinners had an absolute stranglehold on the batsmen. The Required Run Rate was climbing. The difference between balls to come and runs was increasing alarmingly. Afghanistan were on the point of a famous victory. At 17:34, Pakistan were back on the brink of victory themselves after a single, catastrophic over for Afghan hopes.

In one of the most inexplicable tactical decisions of the tournament, Gulbadin Naib, who had been leaking runs, brought himself back, in place of a spinner. Samiullah Shinwari had just bowled a superb over for just two runs, racking-up the tension. When one more, economical over would have effectively sealed the match, Naib bowled an over of the most incredible dross. It went for 18 runs and 46 wanted from 30 became 28 from 24. The dynamic had changed.

Mujeeb Ur Rahman brought it back with another great over. 6 needed from the last over. Who did Naib entrust with that last over? Two full tosses, a ball down leg and a freebie outside off later, Afghanistan, or maybe just the team’s captain, had managed, somehow, to lose. The universal comment was “what was Gulbadin Naib thinking”? Did he want to be the hero? If Pakistan qualify for the Semi-Finals thanks to this result, he may face some interesting questions.

It was a strange day. Incidents between fans before the match. A pitch invasion and fighting on the terraces.

The bottom line is that Pakistan are now probably in the best position to qualify for the Semi-Finals. They must beat Bangladesh in their last game and hope that England do not win their two remaining fixtures.

Before this, India duly eliminated the minimal mathematical chance that the West Indies had of qualification. The West Indies opened the tournament with a demolition of Pakistan and were highly competitive against South Africa and Australia, but have since fallen apart. After batting steadily, a strong finish took India to a testing score. Kemar Roach’s figures were exceptional, but Oshane Thomas and Carlos Bathwaite went for a combined 10-0-96-0, which rather undid his efforts.

After Shami torpedoed the top order, the Indian bowling was relentless. Shami and Bumrah combined for 12.2-1-25-6. You had to be impressed.

Meanwhile, the outside chance that Sri Lanka had of qualifying, despite their limp performances, was almost extinguished by South Africa. Eliminated and with no pressure on them, they produced the sort of performance that had been expected before the tournament. It was as one-sided as any game so far. After losing a wicket first ball, the next eight batsmen got a start, but none passed 30. South Africa went off like a pack of stampeding Wildebeest and won at a canter. Sri Lanka must now win their last two games and rely on Pakistan losing their last match, England losing their last two and Bangladesh losing to India before beating Pakistan. It is not going to happen, is it?

And then, Australia annihilated New Zealand. It is a result that gives England hope and should alarm New Zealand, because they could yet miss out on the Semi-Finals. It is unlikely, but not quite impossible. If England beat India tomorrow and then New Zealand and Pakistan beat Bangladesh or, even more so, if Bangladesh win their last two matches, New Zealand could go out on NRR.

Australia’s score, topped and tailed by collapses, looked short. At 46-3 and 92-5 New Zealand had the chance to go for the throat. A century partnership for the sixth wicket against the change bowlers changed the momentum and 44 for the seventh maintained it, even if a Trent Boult hat-trick – bowled, bowled, LBW – did, briefly, even things up. At half way New Zealand were in with a chance, but the Australian attack looks so better balanced now than it did two weeks ago. 5-26 for Starc, 1-14 for Cummins and even Steve Smith took his first wicket in ODIs for nearly 5 years. New Zealand’s NRR has taken a big hit and a heavy defeat in their last game might yet prove fatal. The New Zealand bowling attack has been excellent, but the batting is far too dependent on Kane Williamson.

Seven matches remain. India play three of them and have the fate of England and Bangladesh in their hands. If India beat England tomorrow, the hosts will have to rely on other results falling their way. It is not a cheering thought for Eoin Morgan’s men, beset with injury and other doubts. An England win though would set up a grandstand finale to qualifying and all but eliminate Sri Lanka.

 

World Cup 2019, Days 26-28: Seven Brides for Four Places

 

World Cup 2019

Days 26-28: Seven Brides for Seven Four Places

June 26^th 2019

 

For an Englishman of a certain age, the words “They think that it’s all over. It is now”, bring back memories of grainy footage in black and white of the one occasion when their football team did not make a mess of a World Cup campaign. The BBC commentator was the legendary Kenneth Wolstenholme. Mr Wolstenhome went to a better place in 2002, but may well be watching from above and allow himself a chuckle. England fans thought that it was all over after Afghanistan and Bangladesh were obliterated. Unfortunately, it is not. The vultures are circling and, suddenly, England’s games against New Zealand and India are becoming authentic heart-attack affairs, with most of the world desperate to see England lose and the very real possibility that they will.

So, what on Earth has happened?

Remember how Pakistan were effectively all but eliminated after losing to India?

Not any longer!

All those people who were remembering 1992 and saying that Pakistan would come back and win are suddenly getting VERY excited. Pakistan are suddenly and unexpectedly very much alive again in the tournament. But, there again, thanks to various twists of fate, so are Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

England are still favourites to snatch fourth place, but now must beat at least one of New Zealand and India to do so. India continue unbeaten, with two games in hand and probably need to win just one of their four remaining games to go through. That India top the table and give whoever finishes fourth the dubious honour of playing them in the Semi-Final, is not in much doubt by anyone. Pakistan fans with amnesia are licking their lips at the prospect that it will be them.

First, Pakistan rode over the dead body of South African cricket. Fair enough that South Africa have been awful and barely made a game of it, but the win was never in doubt, even if South Africa did manage, just, to bat out 50 overs. Pakistan dropped chances, lost one of their opening bowlers after just two overs and still strangled the life out of their opponents. Six catches dropped and a lot of shoddy fielding and still Pakistan were never threatened. What will they be capable of if they get it right one day?

Then, Bangladesh gave Afghanistan another lesson in chasing a target. 263 should have been, just about, within Afghanistan’s reach but, every time that they have got themselves into a good position in a chase, wickets have fallen. 104-2 from 28 overs, they were behind, but not hopelessly so. Three wickets fell for thirteen runs. End of. Samiullah Shinwari tried to hold the Afghan tail together, but Shakib Al Hasan turned-in arguably the performance of the tournament: 51 and 10-1-29-5 – he was unstoppable.

Bangladesh climb to 3 wins (that’s the first tie-breaker if points are equal) and 7 points, just one point behind England after the same number of games. However, Bangladesh must now play India and Pakistan and probably need to win both games to progress. Not easy.

Sri Lanka, having made England look foolish, were watching the England v Australia game with interest… as were Pakistan, Bangladesh and a few others. Unfortunately, only one side turned up. Bowling conditions. Win Toss. Bowl. 3 or 4 quick wickets and, “thanks for the game”. Unfortunately, it did not quite work out that way. Joffra Archer choose this moment to have one of his most innocuous new ball spells. Edges flew. False shots fell safe. Half-chances (and the odd genuine chance) went begging. Australia had a tournament’s-worth of luck in the first twenty overs. 173-1 could easily have become 350, or even more, with wickets in hand and forcing batting to come. England finally came to the party and the final total was boosted only by a late flourish but, the result was determined twenty over earlier. 285 should have been a straightforward chase until Behrendorff and Starc reduced England to 26-3 and, every time that it seemed that a recovery was coming, England lost a wicket. 177-5 with Stokes and Woakes starting to accelerate? England marginal favourites. 202-8? All over.

England utterly dismantled and now have to play India and New Zealand. Sri Lanka just two points behind, with a game in hand but, behind both on wins and on NRR. Even if Sri Lanka beat both South Africa and West Indies, they can only equal England’s four wins and they are far behind on NRR, the second tie-breaker. That said, if Sri Lanka beat South Africa, things will start to get very tight because they will then be level on points with England.

And then, the “et tu, Brute”. New Zealand. Unbeaten. Just needing a win to qualify. Pakistan in front. Wild, unreliable, undisciplined Pakistan. Pakistan who drop catches and give away runs in the field for fun. Pakistan who were going to be found out by better sides, as they had been against India and Australia. Pakistan who reduced New Zealand to 46-4. At 30 overs, it was 94-5 and New Zealand were struggling to get past 180 and any realistically defensible total. Neesham and de Grandhomme (frequently labelled CDG by the wags and, today, flying, himself) gave their bowlers something to bowl at, but Pakistan were irresistible. A century for Babar Azam. A stylish fifty for Haris Sohail. It was never seriously in doubt. The bad news though is that Pakistan took the chase into the final over, so their NRR continues to be seriously anaemic. They also have a point fewer and a win fewer from the same number of games as England and a far inferior NRR to Bangladesh, who have the same points and same number of wins.

Tomorrow, India play the West Indies, knowing that a win will all but seal their place in the Semi-Final. The West Indies need a mathematical miracle to qualify but, technically, are not quite dead if they win tomorrow. That is followed by two, MUST NOT LOSE games for Sri Lanka and Pakistan on Friday and Saturday. If either loses, they follow Afghanistan, South Africa and, almost certainly, the West Indies, out of the tournament. The World Cup is very much alive thanks to two, shoddy England defeats. England are still masters of their own fate and their rivals have to do everything right and have results fall their way but, seven sides are now chasing four qualifying places.

World Cup 2019, Days 24-25: Afghanistan Trip on the Finishing Line, the West Indies conform to type and Pakistan Can’t Catch a Cold, but Send South Africa Home

 

 

World Cup 2019

Days 24-25: Afghanistan Trip on the Finishing Line, the West Indies conform to type and Pakistan Can’t Catch a Cold, but Send South Africa Home

June 23^rd 2019

 

When, in 1996, Kenya beat a West Indian side that, if no longer at the height of its powers, was still a most formidable opponent, it was regarded as the greatest cricketing shock of all time. Afghanistan, who have gone from richer to poorer the longer they have been in England, came agonisingly close to producing an even greater shock result.

The final margin was 11 runs. You felt that if Afghanistan could bat out 50 overs, they would win. In fact, thanks to a last over hat-trick, they failed by just one ball and, duly lost. While Mohammad Nabi was still at the crease, the target was just about with reach, but a middle-order collapse left him just too much to do. The margins, though, were so fine that, had Pandya missed Nabi on the boundary to the second ball of that over and the ball had gone for the six that it so nearly was, surely Afghanistan would have won. Nabi was that close to pulling-off a quite extraordinary victory for his team.

Neither side found scoring easy and Kohli was the only player on either side to score at a run-a-ball. Still, at 192-4, with almost six overs to go, it was still a surprise to see that they could only stagger to 224-8. The Afghan bowlers were magnificent and Rashid Khan, who only a few days earlier, had had a nightmare match, took 1-42 (Dhoni was his wicket) and tied the batsmen in knots, while Mohammad Nabi took 2-33. Had Nabi and Rahmat Shah been allowed to bowl out their overs instead of the expensive Aftab Alam, perhaps the result might have been different. However, “what might have been” wins no matches.

Player of the match went to Bumrah when, perhaps, on mature reflection, it should have been Nabi, who scored a 50 and took the same number of wickets, more economically than Bumrah.

However, the bottom line was, even when put under the most terrific pressure, India were able to defend a small target and win.

So far, they are the only side in the tournament not to have shown significant weakness. You have to be impressed. Previous Indian sides would have been overwhelmed by imaginary demons: deliberately underprepared, green pitches; rigged DRS; biased umpiring; global anti-India conspiracies. This Indian side just gets on with it and wins.

Elsewhere, it was New Zealand’s turn to show resilience under extraordinary pressure and, again, the West Indies impressed, but fell short.

The match had the most extraordinary possible start. Sheldon Cottrell bowled the first over, which went:

W 4 . 3 W 3

Both openers out for a golden duck, Guptill after a review for LBW, Munro bowled by inswinging torpedo. Three maidens in the first eight overs. New Zealand limping to 36-2 from 12 overs. However, Kane Williamson was still there and, by the time that Saluting Sheldon got him too, it was the 47^th over, Williamson had 148 and New Zealand had a total that they could defend. Williamson has faced 390 balls and scored 333 runs since his previous dismissal in the tournament. Impressive.

The West Indies start was little better than New Zealand’s had been but they were ahead on run rate for almost the entire innings. With Gayle and Hetmyer sharing a century partnership at the best part of 8-an-over, it looked for all the world as if the West Indians would stroll to victory but, as they had done against Australia, they lost their way when it seemed easier to win. 142-2 became 164-7. Brilliant, but appallingly inconsistent and ready to supply a Calypso Collapso at the drop of a steel drum. Their utter destruction of Pakistan in their first fixture is the biggest single reason why there will not be an India v Pakistan Semi-Final but, since then, they have swung between brilliant and dire, often in the same game.

Here it happened again. 211-8, needing 81 from 71 balls, with a tail that has few pretensions to batting ability, the match looked all over. Ten overs later, the West Indies needed just 8 from 12 balls. Jimmy Neesham beat the bat three time in five balls, although Carlos Brathwaite was able to get the runs that he needed to reach the unlikeliest of centuries. The last ball of the penultimate over was short and inviting. Brathwaite pulled. The ball flew towards Long-On. The fielder, Trent Boult, had already shelled two catches. Leap. Stick out hand. And he hung on.

Brathwaite was just inches from winning the match with a six.

It has summed-up the West Indies’ tournament: close, but no cigar. They are now mathematically eliminated.

It comes to something when a team drops no fewer than six chances, some of them easy and still blows the opposition away. South Africa had to beat Pakistan to conserve any illusion that they could still reach the Semi-Finals, but simply succumbed meekly. With the Required Run Rate rising steadily. With the fielders spilling chances for fun. With death or glory the only possible aim… South Africa seemed to have no other plan than to bat out their overs, a task that they managed to achieve… just. There was no serious intent until the RRR reached 14 and, even then, it was brief.

Pakistan have been their own worst enemy at times but, when you can drop so many chances and still win without breaking sweat, there is something special in your side.

South Africa have been dreadful, but Pakistan stay just about alive in the tournament although, realistically, both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are better placed. Sri Lanka have one point more and a slightly better NRR, while Bangladesh, level on points, have a massively better NRR and face Afghanistan next. Pakistan face New Zealand and need to win and win big to keep their hopes alive and, even then, need other results to go their way.

 

World Cup 2019, Days 20-23: Oh, England! Sri Lanka blow qualification wide open

 

World Cup 2019

Days 20-23: Oh, England! Sri Lanka blow qualification wide open

June 22^nd 2019

Just when you thought that this World Cup had no surprises to offer. Just when you thought that the Big Four would navigate calmly into the Semi-Final. Just when you thought that England had got rid of their brainstorm day against Pakistan and were looking frightening, enter the dragon… or, in this case, the Lion.

Most pundits had written-off Sri Lanka, who have looked pretty awful so far. Their route to qualification still looks difficult, but two of their veterans have shown that there is life yet in the side.

Four days. Four matches. And the Big Four suffering a bit more than anyone expected apart, of course, from India, whose serene progress should continue today, against Afghanistan.

It is interesting that, with two games in hand now over most of their rivals, India should play the side destined to finish bottom, with a perfect, losing record. How much damage was done to Afghanistan on Monday when, after a slow start, England hammered their bowlers to such brutal effect, that it was a surprise that that last ball of the innings failed to go for the boundary that would have brought up the 400?

The England innings can be summed-up by a few numbers:

·       England were 46-1 after 10 overs, but scored 142-4 from the last 10.

·       England were 106-1 after 20 overs, but scored 233-4 from the last 20.

·       Eoin Morgan’s World Cup record 17, 6s meant that he scored 102 of his 148 runs in 6s.

·       Moeen Ali, who has been in poor form with the bat, scored 30 from his first 8 balls at the death, before only being able to dig out the last ball for a single, to finish with 31 from 9.

·       Rashid Khan, the Afghan spin wizard, went for 9-0-110-0 and would have taken the record for the most expensive figures ever in an ODI had he bowled his full 10 [Mick Lewis, of Australia, got his 10^th over v South Africa, in 2006 and finished with 10-0-113-0].

When Jofra Archer removed Noor Ali Zadran quickly, the sense of embarrassment was palpable. Gulbadin Naib added some defiance and, although Afghanistan never made a real effort to chase (strangely, they were actually ahead of England after 10 overs), they batted out their overs for their best-ever World Cup total.

There was little in a 150-run margin to suggest the disaster to come.

New Zealand then played a low-scoring cliff-hanger against South Africa. Certain traditions were observed. South Africa lost one of their openers quickly – in this case, de Kock. Although #2-6 all got starts, no one could push on. And 241-6 from 49 overs looked like being an interesting chase given that New Zealand’s largest, so far in the tournament, was the 245 to win against Bangladesh, which ended in the closest finish to a match so far. New Zealand were ahead of the chase for most of the innings, although some tight overs around over 30 actually led to South Africa having their noses in front. The difference, though, was that Kane Williamson was still there and, in partnership with Jimmie Neesham, chipped away and chipped away at the target. When Neesham fell, had Williamson followed, surely South Africa would have won.

Eight to win from the last over.  Phehlukwayo to bowl. Single first up. Williamson on strike. Phehlukwayo tries a variation. Williamson sees it and dumps the ball into the stands to bring up his century with his first six. Another boundary, third ball – 11 from 3 deliveries in a low-scoring match – and Williamson was the difference between the two sides.

The question is: if they are faced with chasing 320, or 340 instead of 240, how will New Zealand do? We do not yet know.

Then, we had Australia against a re-vitalised Bangladesh. The fans expected a blood-bath and got it, but not the way that they had expected. At 30 overs Australia were going along at 5.6, showing little sign of what was to come. Crucially, though, there were wickets in hand and a set batsman. 168-1 from 30 overs suggested 330-340, but Australia had obviously been watching England’s methods: 213 from the last 20 overs, 131 from the last 10 overs. The third highest score of the World Cup so far. Far too many, one thought.

Bangladesh, though, are beginning to believe in their ability. Even though wickets fell regularly, they kept chasing hard and, at half way, were 177-4 and 9 ahead of Australia at the same stage. Mushifiqur and Mahmudullah came together and put together a big partnership although, critically, slipped further and further behind the asking rate.

With 5 overs to go and 82 wanted, Australia just needed to keep calm but, at 300-4, Bangladesh were just in the match still.

One big over? It was the 46^th.

Nathan Coulter-Nile conceded just four runs and took wickets with consecutive balls. That over killed-off Bangladesh and the only remaining interest was Mushifiqur’s century, which he duly obtained in the penultimate over. Australia won and won well, putting down a big marker, but the suggestion remains that their support bowling is vulnerable.

Can Australia defend 340 against a good batting line-up?

And then, the one that hurts for the hosts. Literally. And metaphorically. A body blow in the gut.

Sri Lanka batted and, after 14 balls, were 3-2: one each for Archer and Woakes. The track looked like a belter. The pundits were suggesting that Sri Lanka would need 350+ to have some hope of defending. When Angelo Matthews came in, he could hardly get bat to ball. At 30 overs it was 133-5 and one wondered if Sri Lanka could get to 220. Would England take 20? 25? 30 overs to seal the win?

However, Sri Lanka never folded. Matthews started to get a little more fluent. 180 was passed. Then 200. Then 220. 232 looked way short, but the momentum had shifted slightly because it was quite a lot more than Sri Lanka would have expected half an hour earlier.

James Vince, stand-in stuntman for Jason Roy takes a single off the first ball. Jonny Bairstow faces. Straight. Bairstow hits across the line. 1-1 and, suddenly, the butterflies are fluttering. James Vince doesn’t last long. 26-2 and the World Cup is awake. This was England’s nightmare scenario: chasing a small total on a pitch that, despite the opinion of the pundits, is proving hard to score on fluently.

Root and Morgan together. Surely order will be restored. England to win by eight wickets? They bedded-in carefully, always below 4-an-over. In other sides this would be a bad sign, after the Afghanistan game it was simply the promise of a rain of sixes to come, but they never did.

73-2: everything under control.

127-3: everything under control. Root and Stokes batting nicely.

And then the innings disintegrated. Ben Stokes played sensibly and tried to guide the tail towards the target. Even at 170-5, with Moeen looking in the mood, the target seemed trivial. Sri Lanka kept the pressure on. The RRR passed a run-a-ball and wickets fell. The bowlers were magnificent. The fielders backed them up. Stokes and Wood put on 26 for the last wicket and one wondered if there might yet be a last twist. Pradeep bowled a quick one. Wood edged. Perera pouched. And the great upset was sealed.

It looked for all the world as if, with a small target and England always up with the Sri Lanka score at the same stage, the batsmen just relaxed too much.

However, Lashith Malinga, with 10-1-43-4, showed that he can still be a potent force. It was the wonderful performance that toppled the pre-tournament favourites by making his team-mates believe in what seemed impossible.

Sri Lanka now play South Africa, West Indies and India. If they win those first two matches, their last game, against India, the penultimate qualifier of the tournament, will become a possible Semi-Final eliminator. How it would set things up!

How much damage has this defeat done England, who are now faced with most-likely having to beat at least two and possibly all three of New Zealand, Australia and India to qualify?