India's Tailspin Towards A Crashdive

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The Indian Tailspin

 

August 16^th 2014

 

457, 391-9d, 295, 342, 330, 178, 152, 161, 148, …

That is the series of Indian scores during this series. It is a steady downward progression and suggests that England may not need many more than 300 to win this match by an innings. India, who looked so imperious for two and a half Tests are, increasingly resembling the unconvinced masochist who can only whimper “please make it stop”. Their surrender in the second innings at the Ageas Bowl seems to have knocked all the fight out of them: since then things have only got worse.

Although England had good bowling conditions and a helpful pitch, India had the same later in the day and, while India were 62-6, England are 62-0 and batting with some assurance. If Robson and Cook can see out the first hour, big runs will be there for the taking. Sam Robson, in particular, has come in for some fearful stick since his century against Sri Lanka and, with Alex Hales making an ever-stronger case to play in all three formats for England, Robson desperately needs a century and will know that there is a strong likelihood that this will be his only innings in this Test in which to hang on to his place. Those who have followed County Cricket for years and, particularly Middlesex, know that as far back as 2011 those who knew him felt that he would be a fine Test player. Despite a century against Sri Lanka, his struggles have been obvious.

For the Caribbean series there is a strong probability that some players will be rested and others tried out. It would be no surprise to see both Hales and Robson competing there for the opening spot in the Ashes and Anderson and Broad rested, with Steve Finn asked to lead the attack along with Woakes, Jordan and Plunkett. Certainly, Jordan and Woakes have done a lot to answer their critics in this game; both are still learning their trade at this level and need the experience. I would be prepared to lay a small bet that Woakes will announce himself with a second innings 5-for in an innings win.

For India, it is hard to know where they can go from here with a series against Australia coming up. After encouraging series in South Africa and New Zealand, this has not been a great confidence-inducer. The batting looks terribly fragile, although lower-order runs have helped to massage the evidence a little – the 10^th wicket partnership brought some respectability to the Indian score here – and the bowling has looked less and less penetrative as the series has progressed. Worse still, when chances have been made, as often as not they have been missed and the lack of DRS has, undoubtedly, hurt India badly. India’s slip cordon has cost the side several hundred runs in dropped chances. As things have started to go wrong, heads have dropped. MS Dhoni has done his job with the bat and, early in the series, showed some inventive captaincy but, now, his unwillingness to move for chances that fly between the ‘keeper and first slip and his increasing immobility have hurt his side as much as Matt Prior’s did.

For England, the series is turning out to be sweet and sour. Players such as Jos Buttler and Liam Plunkett have bedded in as first choices. Ballance has been brilliant and Cook, Bell, Anderson and Broad recovered. Woakes and Jordan are bedding in, but India have been so poor in the last three Tests that it is hard to assess where England are really in their recovery process. However, you can only beat what is in front of you and winning this series 3-1 seemed a long way away after the Lords Test: in fact, after Lords, 3-0 to India looked the most likely result. Those who rubbish the England win will conveniently forget that India came into the series with some confidence, pointing to their last two away series and the betting was on a shared series with five draws. India certainly did not look so poor two months ago, but a rejuvenated England side is making them look very poor indeed.

Turning The Series On Its Head

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The turnaround explained in numbers

 

August 14^th 2014

 

I am a firm believer in the maxim that there are “lies, damn lies and statistics”, although that is mainly due to the inventive ways that statistics get misused by people who do not understand them, particularly in cricket. However, a measure of how much this series has changed is seen in a few numbers.

In the first two Tests, India held a definite edge with bat and ball, averaging 3.5 runs per wicket more with the bat than England:

	Runs scored	Wickets lost	Average runs/wicket
India	1485	39	38.1
England	1038	30	34.6

In the last two Test though, the balance has moved violently in the opposite direction:

	Runs scored	Wickets lost	Average runs/wicket
India	821	40	20.5
England	1141	20	57.1

England average almost three times as many runs per wicket as India for these two Tests.

This is reflected in the fortunes of the England bowlers. Compare their combined analysis for the first two Tests with their combined analyses in the last two:

	1st/2nd Test		3rd/4th Test
	Analysis	Average	Analysis	Average
Jimmy Anderson	9-307	34.1	12-138	11.5
Stuart Broad	9-275	30.6	9-113	12.6
Moeen Ali	7-268	38.3	12-168	14.0

Who needs wicket-taking back-up bowlers when the most expensive of your three main strike bowlers is averaging 14? We often forget that, in the famous 2005 Ashes, Australia’s attack was basically a 3-man affair with, even among them, Brett Lee taking his 20 wickets at over 40; who remembers that Michael Kasprowicz and Jason Gillespie were the other two bowlers who started the series, averaging 62.5 and 100 respectively [Tait, Kasprowicz & Gillespie played 7 Tests between them in that series and took a combined 12-760. Mike Kasprowicz was christened “Casper the Friendly Ghost” by the Press for his lack of threat]? Even so, Australia came so close to winning the series. What is most striking though is that in the last two Tests of the current series, the three bowlers who form, England’s “strike trio” are averaging about one third of the runs per wicket that they did in the first two Tests in the series. The three are exercising progressive domination of the Indian batsmen to the extent that only Vijay, Rahane, Kumar & Dhoni average over 26, despite the fact that batsmen prospered so much initially in the series that comfortably the lowest Indian total in the first five innings of the series was 295.

It may well be that England’s surprise spinner lynchpin, Moeen Ali, will get rumbled and may never again be as effective. Certainly, the Australians will set out to destroy him, as they did Graeme Swann. However, as he gets more bowling and develops his skills, it is possible that he will avoid this fate. Despite his relative anonymity in the 4^th Test and suggestions that he has lost his mystery, Ravi Ashwin still has 104 wickets at 28.8 in his first 20 Tests, combined with a batting average of 41.6, making his non-selection a mystery and suggesting that Moeen Ali could do something similar for England with hard work and effort. Certainly, those who questioned Moeen’s right to play for England are looking rather foolish, even if his supporters are feeling slightly bemused by the turn of events. If Moeen can solve his problems with the short ball, he could become a valuable middle-order all-rounder, offering England the serious option to play two spinners without lengthening the tail too much (playing Monty Panesar and Simon Kerrigan, in contrast, would potentially leave England with the frightening prospect of having to bat Jimmy Anderson as high as #8).

A Strange Series Reaches Its Climax

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Does an odd series have new twists?

 

August 13^th 2014

 

 

When, on July 21^st, India went 1-0 up in the Test series, you would not have wanted to bet against the final result being 3-0, or even 4-0. The list of England problems seemed endless:

·         Their strategy was awful.

·         The bowling was insipid and could not remove India’s tail, even if the top-order was more obliging.

·         The batting was struggling.

·         There had not been a 50 opening partnership for six Tests.

·         The Indian seamers were rampant

·         The senior players were not performing.

·         The side was resigned to losing Jimmy Anderson.

·         Stuart Broad looked far from fit.

·         Matt Prior was both unfit and desperately out of form.

·         There was no spinning bowling option worth the name.

·         The captain could not score a run and was being heavily criticised for lack of tactic nous.

Fast forward about seven playing days and, suddenly, all has changed.

·         India’s totals in their last four innings have been 330, 178, 152 & 161, while England have responded with 569-7d, 205-4d and 367. Even the one innings where England were bowled out,  it was batting one short and losing wickets chasing quick runs.

·         Moeen Ali – the Beard that is Feared – has 12 wickets at 14.0 in 3 innings since.

·         Anderson and Broad have 21 wickets in the last two Tests and have often looked unstoppable.

·         Ian Bell has scored 167, 23 & 58, ending any worries about his form.

·         Jos Buttler has come into the side and scored 85 & 70 in his only two innings and, if truth be told, looked more comfortable with the gloves than Matt Prior did.

·         England have won both games at a canter and Alistair Cook scored two fifties in the process.

·         India have looked a totally defeated side, devoid of any fight. To lose 20 wickets in under 90 overs on a good batting wicket at Old Trafford was as bad as anything England produced in Australia.

It is really hard to work out just what has happened to provoke the complete change in fortunes. Evidently, England have had some substantial doses of luck. At the Ageas Bowl Cook, Bell and Buttler should all have been dismissed early in their innings due to dropped catches or questionable decisions not falling India’s way, although Gary Ballance got a bad decision in both innings. At Old Trafford, MS Dhoni made the incredible decision to bat in bowling decisions and see his side 8-4 in quick time. However, it seems to be as much down to a combination of small, “1% factors” as anything. Moeen Ali has changed his bowling fractionally, slightly increasing his speed and tightening his line and India have started to play him like lemmings facing hand grenades; some fans replicated that his 6 wickets at the Ageas were mostly tail-enders but seven of his twelve wickets in the two Tests have been top-six batsmen from a team that is reckoned to be the greatest experts in the world at playing spin bowling. Alistair Cook bowled Chris Woakes with the new ball before Stuart Broad at the Ageas and a riled Broad responded with 6-25 in the 4^th Test. A couple of stunning catches have stuck. India have seemed to have scored an own goal by raising a level three charge at Jimmy Anderson: England have bonded together and come out fighting, while India have seemed distracted.

There has been no big change that can be identified but, overall, the whole dynamic of the series has changed. India have shuffled the balance of their side, changed the attack, changed the batting and seemed to have just unsettled themselves by doing it: the attack now looks toothless and the top order batting is as stable as a blancmange. At Old Trafford, Ravi Ashwin produced some stiff resistance from #8 with 40 and 46*, but was brought in mainly to add some spin threat, which he failed completely to do, scarcely bowling more overs than the much-ridiculed Binny. In three Tests, Binny and Ashwin have 34-1-111-0 between them: the only front-line bowlers on either side without a wicket in the series. All through the series we have been asking why Ravi Ashwin was not playing. We are little closer to understanding.

Do not think though that all things are rosy for England. Cook and Robson have managed just a single 50 partnership in the whole series and that was only 55. Robson’s place is under severe scrutiny. Cook followed up his twin fifties with a failure at Old Trafford and one cannot help the feeling that he has bought himself some time but that a new failure at The Oval would re-open the debate about how the captaincy is affecting him. Moeen Ali is suffering severe problems with short bowling. The England support bowling has been criticised all series: Chris Jordan is not reproducing the fire and accuracy that he found for the ODIs and, for Sussex. Many fans have questioned Chris Woakes’ right to play Test cricket and Liam Plunkett has been injured.

Woakes is an interesting case. He has been the leading all-rounder in the country for several seasons and is still young. He has added some pace in the last year and has bowled good lines, giving little away, but taken just two wickets in three Tests, without ever suggesting that he will threaten to take many more. He has had little chance to show what he can do with the bat, having been left no out in three of his four Test innings, although with a highest score of just 26* and has generally been asked to do a holding job with the old ball. One is reminded of a certain IT Botham who, despite his eye-catching 5-74 in his first innings in Test cricket, admitted that he felt unsure that he was good enough to play at the top level until he made his breakthrough century in New Zealand. The rest, as they say, is history.

If truth be told, Botham’s first three Tests produced 14 wickets for just 242 runs, very different to Woakes’ 2 wickets for 259 but, one wonders if Chris Woakes, like Moeen Ali, just needs one performance to break through in Tests. A player who averages 3.4 wickets per match in First Class cricket with a strike rate under 50 and a bowling average just over 25 is obviously a decent bowler and eight First Class centuries with an average of nearly 39 say that he can bat too.

While many things are coming together for England, there is plenty to play for at The Oval. Cook, Robson and Moeen Ali need runs. Woakes and Jordan need wickets – it is not impossible that Steve Finn may be brought back to replace one or other – and England need the series win, with 3-1 being preferable to show that the side really is on an upswing.

However, there must be a suspicion that India cannot possibly play so badly again. If they do reproduce the spirit of Lords, the series may have a final twist and, England, a nasty surprise. This is no time to relax.

England On The Brink Of Breaking Their Bad Run

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Can England do it this time?

 

July 29^th 2014

 

Unless India produce something remarkable, at some point today England will register their first Test win since Chester-le-Street, eleven Tests ago. England have ridden their luck to be as dominant in this game as India were – after the first two sessions – for much of the game at Lords. At least so far in this game, England have finished the job when their opponents were on the ropes, rather than letting them off the floor to counterattack.

When India were 145-7 after two sessions at Lords and again when England were 211-4 in reply you would have bet on England turning a good position into a winning one. When India fell to 235-7, just over 200 ahead, you felt that the target would be a soft one but, each time, India came roaring back to knock the stuffing out of an opponent who went from thinking “I can’t believe that we are winning” to thinking “I knew that it was too good to be true”. The win for India, when it came, was rapid and deflating because, again, this was a game that England could and should have won. That is why England should not relax until the last Indian is dismissed today: the last three wickets have given England far more problems this summer than the top three, so it was such a pleasant surprise to see 313-7 become 331ao, with the last two wickets falling in quick time in the morning.

Yesterday, one famous TV analyst stated bluntly before play that England would not win. Maybe he was being fatalist to avoid hexing the side. Maybe he felt that, again, England would fall short. What was good was to see England following through when they had an opening. Some of the criticism has been brutal: not to enforce the follow-on was defensive, England would prod on for three sessions and let India escape, the declaration was too late, a two-man attack would never bowl India out, etc. Sometimes you wonder if some of the critics are watching the same match.

Although Chris Jordan was occasionally wild, he was also aggressive in a way that makes things happen, although not always at his end and is a superb slipper. Chris Woakes was tight and mean. The headlines have been for Jimmy Anderson, Stuart Broad and, today, Moeen Ali who is growing in confidence and self-belief with the ball as he is shrinking with the bat , but the support bowlers did their job. Together Woakes and Jordan have bowled 47 overs so far in the Test and done a job for their side. Woakes topped 90mph in the first innings and has been the fastest bowler on either side in the second innings (although Mohammed Shami has bowled the fastest ball in the 2^nd innings) – not bad for someone patronisingly described as a batsman who can bowl.

What was impressive was the intensity with little given away, even when India threatened to make a decent start. In Jimmy Anderson’s last over the six balls were all tightly clustered around the top of middle and leg – no width, no height, no relief.

It may be that those little signs of progress that we have seen through the summer will become clearer if England win today and that the last day at Headingley, where England so nearly pulled off a miraculous escape, will later been seen as the turning point in England’s fortunes. World-beaters, the side is not. Often unfairly maligned, it is.

However, to win, England’s bowlers have to get through Rahane, Sharma, Dhoni, Jadeja, Kumar and Shami, all of whom have proved hard to dislodge at times, before they get Pankat Singh, fast becoming a folk hero with the locals, in their sights. It is not impossible that India could get through the first session without losing a wicket and, if they do, England’s steel will be sorely tested.

England Are Lucky: Can They Make It Count?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Luck starts to turn

 

July 29^th 2014

 

In the end, 569-7d looks pretty good, but it involved a fair slice of luck. Alistair Cook made 95, but was dropped off an easy chance on 15. Ian Bell made 167 but, had DRS been in place, would have departed for a duck and Jos Buttler was walking when he gave a low catch to slip before the matter was referred to the Third umpire who, as usually happens in such cases, found sufficient doubt in the foreshortened view of the TV camera’s telefocal lens to give the batsman a probably unmerited lifeline – Buttler made 85 at a rattling pace. Take away those 332 runs and it would have been business as usual for England and a battle to save the game, even if Gary Ballance can fairly say that he got a pretty poor call.

There are times when a side needs a little luck. Last winter, in Australia, England lost the toss in the first three Tests and was right on the back foot from the start. What luck there was all went Australia’s way until England were too battle-scarred to be able to take advantage.

Here, India can feel hard done by in several senses, but certainly did not help themselves. Dropped catches, poorly directed bowling and lax fielding all helped to make England’s job easier. While the bowlers were persistent, many pundits thought that they did not deserve to do much better than they did.

While both Bell and Cook got runs, neither should have done. However, they took their chances well. Better to have a life and take full advantage, than to have one and fall a few balls later. Bell looks back to his best although, for Cook, it is still a struggle. Similarly, Jos Buttler was extremely lucky not to start his Test career with a duck however, as he took advantage of his luck, India surrendered and the unfortunate Jadeja went for 21 in one particularly violent over. This score has probably ensured that Jos Buttler’s place will not be disputed for the rest of the summer at least. Even if his ‘keeping is deficient, it is as well to remember that neither Alec Stewart no Matt Prior were anywhere near Test-class wicket-keepers initially.

Things are looking better but, until England have bowled on this surface, we do not know how good England’s score is. If the bowlers can do a bit better than in previous matches in terms of line and length and put India under some real pressure, we can start to talk of the corner being turned. So far this summer though, England have got themselves into some very good positions, but not been able to exploit them. The corner will not be turned until they are exploited and a win results.

The Start Of The Turnaround?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

What the doctor ordered

 

July 28^th 2014

  

Undoubtedly, the phrase of the night on social media will have been “one swallow does not a summer make”, usually delivered with the aplomb as if this is the wisdom of the gods being bestowed on ignorant mortals. Roughly translated, this means “I am using a cliché because I have no real arguments and am too lazy to think of any”. It will be applied both to Alistair Cook, who suffered an unlucky dismissal when just a single boundary hit from his first century in some sixteen months and to England, who have had arguably their best day with the bat since the tour of India in 2012. It is a pity, but some people will dismiss the day as if it never happened, because it does not fit into their neat plans and say that the fact that both the captain and his team made runs changes nothing.

In a sense, they may be right. One decent score does not mean that Alistair Cook and England are back at the pinnacle of the game, but then no one is claiming that. What the fans want to see is an end to the crash dive and this performance is an indication that things are turning around. That does not mean that England will not collapse horribly in their second innings and lose: it could still happen, but the right statement of intent has been made. If Alistair Cook can follow up with second innings runs, preferably in a win, we will start to think of a corner being turned.

England showed some pragmatism and made two changes: Jordan and Woakes for Plunkett and Stokes and batted on winning the toss. Not only did they resign India to a long day chasing leather, but have given the new ball bowlers extra rest by winning by batting. There already seemed to be some weary Indian legs by the Close and, the hope must be that an increasingly tired bowling attack and fielding side will leak some easy runs tomorrow. Ideally, England would like to declare late tomorrow with somewhere around 600 on the board and a few overs at the Indian openers to come before the Close.

There will be some criticism of England’s slow progress, but this was a “grind the opposition down” day. It will play dividends tomorrow morning if England get a solid start, with the scoring rate likely to increase as the attacking middle order get to work on tiring bowlers. There is no guarantee that India will fail to save the follow-on and England probably would not enforce it even if they did, but they will look for scoreboard pressure to work on the batsmen.

However, it is rarely a good idea to make snap judgements so early in a match. India have got very little out of the pitch and have looked a little flat, not making England play enough. Things may look different – or not – after England have bowled on the pitch. We have seen so often how one team does not use the pitch particularly well, but it suddenly looks like a minefield when they bat.  India though have picked an extra batsman for this game and bowling them out twice on a friendly pitch – which is what it appears to be at present – may simply be mission impossible.

For England the day was satisfactory. It would have been even more satisfactory if the captain had made five more runs and the side had finished 280-2, but let’s not be greedy. It is the first 50 opening partnership for England since Melbourne (6 Tests ago), which is a pretty damning indictment of England’s starts and a partnership of 55 is hardly an excuse to celebrate. Only four times since the start of 2013 and only once in 2014 have England got past 200 in an innings with 2 or fewer wickets down (i.e. a really solid start) and even then have only twice gone on from there to a 400+ total (just one of those four matches was won), so there is still plenty of work to be done in this match.

However, despite the fact that the game has started well, the rest of the batting needs to kick on and a big 50 for Ian Bell is another priority for the day. England should not be satisfied with anything less than being able to declare with 500+ on the scoreboard.

Change In The Air?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Twist or Stick for England?

 

July 27^th 2014

  

There have been two, radically different points of view expressed about England’s team selection for the 3^rd Test. The captain has suggested that Stuart Broad is fit to play and that the side is in no situation to try rotation. Newspapers, who tend to have some idea what is going on in the selectors’ minds, suggest that the attack will be shaken up for a must-win Test.

With the ICC’s recognition that there was an incident between Jimmy Anderson and Ravi Jadeja, it now seems almost certain that Anderson will also be found guilty of an offense. England are, apparently resigned to a two-match ban, meaning that Jimmy Anderson will get a rest, whether he wants it or not, for the last two Tests. If so, he can be asked to make one last effort on a pitch that may have pace and bounce.

Chris Jordan has made a huge case to return to the attack. If Stuart Broad is not deemed fit enough for another 5-day Test, it could be for him. If not, Ben Stokes is looking vulnerable and is also a fitness doubt. Since scoring 70 in the 3^rd ODI v Australia in Perth, his run has been 0, 5, 5, 4, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0: 18 runs in 10 innings across 2 Tests, 4 ODIs and 3 T20s. So far, in three Test innings since his recall against India, Ben Stokes has not troubled the scorer. Despite some impressive spells at Lords, he has also failed to take a wicket in 5 of his last 8 games for England. Ben Stokes has enormous promise, but probably is not good enough to play purely as a bowler and needs runs as much as Cook or Bell do, to justify his place.

If England win the toss and bat well, they could get away playing a tired attack. Batting well though means batting for a full five sessions, allowing the bowlers extra rest before a short stint late on Day 2. They should not be tempted to bowl first because tired bowlers could let India get away, as happened at Lords.

High on the wish list is a century for the captain and a century opening partnership. There has not been even a 50 partnership for the 1^st wicket in the last 5 Tests. Too often have the #3 and #4 in the order come in against the new ball, with a rescue job to do. Last summer the team got away with it because Ian Bell and the tail rescued the situation time and again. In Australia the side actually got better starts than they have against Sri Lanka and India, but they came to naught because the tail was blown away. Now, if the side is to be infused with confidence, they need to see their top three making a really solid platform on which to build a winning position and then complete a victory.

Often just one win is needed to change a side’s fortunes. The problem is that it is India that have got it. The Indian side of 2011 had more stars, but India 2014 plays as a team and is strategically far more savvy, which makes them dangerous opponents.