England v Sri Lanka, 1st Test: Days 1 & 2: England Make a Small Piece of History with the Follow-On

 

England v Sri Lanka

1^st Test: Days 1 & 2

England Make a Small Piece of History with the Follow-On

 

May 20^th  2016

 

Two years ago Sri Lanka came as whipping-boys to put a shell-shocked England team with a re-styled side including Sam Robson and Moeen Ali back on the road to recovery. The cynics said that a heavy win over Sri Lanka would just hide England’s problems. Of course, the result of a bad-tempered series, in which England showed their uglier face, was a humiliating defeat, despite the heroics of Moeen Ali and Jimmy Anderson who were two balls from rescuing a quite incredible draw.

In many ways the 2014 Sri Lanka series was a low point – although things did get even worse before getting better – and was to England’s long-term benefit. Since then, the side and its management have been renovated, the style of play has brightened and England are less disposed to make enemies both on and off the pitch. And this time Sri Lanka have come back, welcome visitors as always, to talk of cricket with an edge, which is what it should have, but without degenerating into ugliness.

As always, when they visit in May, Sri Lanka have to compete with the IPL for players and several of their big stars are now retired. The result has been two warm-up matches where weaker county opposition has proved to be almost more than Sri Lanka could cope with: without help from the weather they might even have lost one of the games and at no point did they look like dominating. However, England supporters know that pre-series form (or lack of it) from tourists does not always point reliably to post-series celebration. England have also gone into the series with a side under a far larger cloud than an encouraging performance in the UAE v Pakistan, a series win against South Africa and a run to the World T20 Final would suggest.

Alex Hales struggled in the Tests in South Africa. Nick Compton started the series well, but faded and James Taylor cheated likely death, but will never play again at any level. It is a horrific thought that, at any moment during the South African series he could have collapsed and died on the pitch. The relief that there was no tragedy during the series should be weighed against the personal disaster that his career was ended just as he finally got a chance to show what he could do (remember those stunning catches at Short Leg?) Further down the order, Moeen Ali is heavily questioned and, with Wood, Woakes & Jordan unavailable or coming back from injury, the seam bowling reserves are looking thin again.

The selectors have shown loyalty, but Nick Compton’s form for Middlesex has been horrible and Alex Hales has only played two matches, taking a calculated gamble, but showing some decent form and obduracy. Both can count themselves somewhat lucky, especially with Sam Robson scoring a lot of runs and showing an effective re-modelled technique. James Vince has pipped a number of rivals to the vacant #5 spot to general approval. The general impression though is that England entered the series only a couple of defeats from crisis, particularly as Jimmy Anderson is probably only an injury from retirement and Stuart Broad’s body has already given the surgeons plenty to occupy them – the loss of either would be serious.

Day 1 gave plenty to worry the England fans. After a solid start, the introduction of the sort of dibby-dobby, mid-70s bowler who India have often deployed with success against England brought dividends for Sri Lanka too. No one checks their helmet and life insurance when Shanaka comes on, but England’s batsmen seemed to want to get back to the safety of the pavilion with indecent haste when he appeared. 49-0 disintegrated into 83-5 and if Alex Hales had not held firm, England could have been heading for humiliation.

Hales’s innings was characterised by the same obduracy and fighting spirit that he showed for Notts when holding their innings together in his season debut innings. Criticised for slow scoring and being painful to watch, only Jonny Bairstow and Angelo Matthews have actually scored faster in the match. The atmospheric conditions have encouraged the bowlers, as has the pitch, which has enough to help the bowler who lands the ball in the right place: even the spinner, as Alex Hales found to his cost. Hales was furious at missing-out on a maiden Test century, but credit Herath for getting a fraction of turn that changed an attacking shot into what looked like an irresponsible slog. Hales though has certainly done enough to guarantee his place for the rest of the series. The same cannot be said for Compton (at least dismissed by a good ball), or Moeen Ali.

With England only getting close to 300 thanks to a ninth wicket stand from Bairstow and Finn, things were going to go one of two ways: if the bowlers got it right, it could be brief and bloody for Sri Lanka; if they got it wrong, there were horrible visions of how Australia racked-up 401-9d at Headingley in 1981 when they should not have got past 200.

What no one imagined was that the Follow On mark of 99 would come into play. The opening overs passed with some alarms, but no great indication of the things to come. Then Stuart Broad got one in exactly the right place, the rout started. Three wickets in nine balls and Sri Lanka were in trouble. Two mini-recoveries and it looked as if the worst might be over: at least, at 77-4, the follow-on target looked to be the least of Sri Lanka’s worries. At 83-7 horrible imaginings must have been appearing. 90-7: a couple of edges and they would be there and there would be the hope that the weather might help them out.

England took some extraordinary catches. Two from Steve Finn turned what should have been an academic debate about the Follow On into a reality but, even then two edged boundaries would have seen Sri Lanka safe – how often have you seen the last pair ride their luck that way? However, when your #11 faces just one ball and puts the health and safety of the Square Leg umpire at risk, so fast is he backing-away, the outlook is not so rosy. Strangle down the leg side, thin edge, England review… thanks very much! 5-16 for Jimmy Anderson. 4-21 for Stuart Broad. Lowering skies and every prospect of plenty of interruptions of play to keep the bowlers fresh. Even Alistair Cook did not hesitate in telling Sri Lanka that Anderson and Broad fancied a few more overs at them.

298ao was enough to enforce the Follow On. It is the equal seventh lowest ever 1^st innings score to do so:

Side Batting First	Opponents	Year	Total	1st Innings Lead	Follow On
South Africa	Pakistan	2013	253	204	Not enforced
England	New Zealand	1958	269	222	Enforced
Australia	England	1895	284	219	Enforced
India	Sri Lanka	1990	288	206	Enforced
England	South Africa	1889	292	245	Enforced
New Zealand	India	1965	297	209	Enforced
England	India	1967	298	206	Not enforced
England	Sri Lanka	2016	298	207	Enforced

Only eight times in Test history has a side scored less than 300 and been able to enforce the Follow On. Twice Sri Lanka have faced this indignity. Four times, England have induced it, the last time in 1967.

With Sri Lanka having barely survived a session in their first innings and nine sessions left, surely only a monsoon in Leeds can save them now.

The World T20: A Stunning West Indian Double

 

The World T20

A Stunning West Indian Double

 

April 3^rd  2016

 

The governance of Caribbean cricket may be dysfunctional. The game may be dying as the Test team shambles from defeat to defeat. The island teams are no longer as strong as many Test sides. Youngsters are more likely to want to play basketball in the USA than they are to want to play cricket. But the West Indies still produce naturally talented players. And today, to prove it, the West Indies are both mens’ and womens’ T20 World Champions.

While the victory of the men was not a huge surprise – they were narrow favourites after all – no one expected a double. After England won the inaugural tournament in 2009, Australia have won the next three. The Australian boast is that players like Ellyse Perry are so good that they would not be out of place in the mens’ team. The Australian womens’ game is fully professional. What hope did a bunch of amateurs have against that kind of fire power?

And more after a nervous start saw the Australians race away and set a target bigger than any conceded in the tournament save by the overpowered Irish and Bangladeshis. Even that was a reasonable comeback. Most people thought that Australia would win with ease, but logic does not always rule in T20. A stunning opening partnership of 120 between Hayley Matthews and Stefanie Taylor set up the chase and Deandra Dottin made sure that the West Indies got over the line. Whereas Ellyse Perry has had a quite anonymous tournament, Dottin has been immense: 129 runs and 9 wickets @ 13.6. Stefanie Taylor though, has been phenomenal: 246 runs and 8 wickets @ 15.3.

The high scores in the womens’ Final made a high-scoring mens’ Final seem likely. Again, things did not work out as expected. When the West Indies won the Toss and decided to chase for the sixth time you sensed that the title was already in the bag barring a major brain-fade. When England had lost both openers in 11 balls and the hapless Morgan soon after – with 145 runs in ten appearances for England in official and unofficial T20s this year, he is struggling for runs – it looked as if the match could be embarrassingly one-sided. 23-3 after 5 overs is no way to set a winning total. Incredibly though, from the end of over 3 to the end of over 19, England were always ahead on runs scored: after 13 overs, as many as 27 ahead.

Bizarrely, after David Willey took the new ball, Joe Root took the second over and wickets with his first and third balls: the West Indian openers lasted even less time than their English counterparts had. Fifteen balls, the West Indies 11-3. Game on. Thanks very much. Root did not bowl again. And Moeen Ali did not bowl at all.

In the end, the key moment was perhaps the first ball of the seventh over. Plunkett bowls a slower ball. Samuels nicks. Buttler takes a low catch and, for about thirty seconds, the West Indies are 37-4. Fortunately for Samuels, he had not crossed the boundary rope because replays showed that Buttler had dropped the catch, only to take it on the rebound. Samuels was reprieved, the wickets wound back and Samuels anchored the West Indies with 85*. It should not have been enough. Willey and Jordan kept things tight in overs 17-19. It comes to something when you take 11 off an over at the death but it is a tragedy because it is nowhere near enough. Two miserly overs from Jordan left Ben Stokes with nineteen to defend. What followed was a horribly painful disintegration. Leg tump half volley hammered for six by Carlos Brathwaite. Slightly short… six again. And six again. Three dots for the super over, but Brathwaite settled things with a fourth consecutive six. Brathwaite ended up with 34 from 10 balls and the party began.

Few people can begrudge the West Indians their triumph. Almost no one fancied them as winners and no one expected them to topple India in the Semi-Final.

For England it is a tournament of positives: deserving finalists. Roy, Jordan, Stokes, Buttler, Willey have all developed as players. Joe Root has been magnificent. Matches have been won from seemingly impossible positions. The team is developing a steel that bodes well for future challenges. The next World T20 will not be until 2020 (how apt!) Now a summer is coming up in which England have two winnable Test series; there must be no final Test slip-ups – both series must be won clinically. The slap and giggle has finished, now minds must turn to the County season already started and to the summer Tests.


[On reflection (next morning): Only time will tell if this is another of those frequent false dawns of West Indian cricket. What is certain is that these two victories will help to keep the flame of cricket alive in the West Indies: given that that flame is flickering and threatening to die, that is no small matter. What is wonderful is that despite everything, despite the very real threat to withdraw by the players in their long-running dispute, they came out to enjoy themselves, to play calypso cricket and to win. They were not distracted by pay, by governance, by lack of respect from their administrators. The West Indies were deserving winners for calmness under pressure when the match looked to have slipped away. They also beat England twice, just to show that it was not an accident. No one gave the West Indies much of a chance before the tournament – never write them off.

For England it was a remarkable “what might have been”. Remember how, in the CricInfo poll before the World T20, just 0.8% of respondents saw England winning the title? Nearly twice as many picked Afghanistan. Three times as many picked Bangladesh. England reached the Final, eliminating South Africa, Sri Lanka and New Zealand on the way and rescued some awful positions in doing so, showing just how tough this new team is becoming and how hard it is to beat them. In a match in which England probably needed to score 190 to off-set the loss of the Toss and bowling second, it took something quite extraordinary in the final over to get the West Indies over the line. Once again, as they had against South Africa, against Afghanistan and against Sri Lanka, England fought back from a seemingly hopeless position – far from an early finish the game was very much alive in the final over. Ben Stokes is devastated. He is treading ground that others have tread previously: Stuart Broad is still remembered for those 6x6 in the inaugural World T20, but he came back to be a pretty useful bowler. Stokes has developed tremendously. Early in the tournament the prospect of him as a death bowler caused terror, but he has done it bravely and well. There is always the danger that a bowler will take some hammer in the death overs and freak feats of hitting are a fact of life, which is what has made Chris Jordan’s performances so remarkable. Regularly taking overs 17 and 19 he has gone for 7 and 8 v West Indies, 3 and 9 v New Zealand, 6 and 7 v Sri Lanka, 5 and 11 v Afghanistan (where he took overs 16 and 19). In an era in which 50-60 runs from the last 4 overs is regarded as pretty standard, those eight death overs have gone for just 55.

Yes, both sides can rightly feel proud of their efforts and achievements.]

The World T20: A West Indian Double? Probably Not…

 

The World T20

A West Indian Double? Probably Not…

 

April 2^nd  2016

 

Given that at one point it was not even certain who would turn up in the name of the West Indies given the long-running and acrimonious dispute between the players and the dysfunctional Board. With the precipitous decline of cricket in the Caribbean, it is nothing short of miraculous that the West Indies have reached both finals. Not just that, but they have done it in magnificent fashion.

The womens’ game is dominated by the Big Three – Australia, New Zealand and England – yet the West Indies have gatecrashed the party big time: they almost toppled England in the group stage and beat the unbeaten New Zealand in the Semi-Final. Their side looks good enough to give the almost unbeatable Australians – Champions in four of the last five editions of the tournament – a real run for their money. You have to believe that the Southern Stars will be too good for the ladies of the Caribbean, but you know that 90% of the neutrals will be willing the West Indies over the line, in what would be the greatest shock in world cricket since Sri Lanka exploded onto the scene by winning the World Cup in 1996.

In contrast, the mens’ team probably start favourites. Test cricket may not inflame passions and encourage mass participation any longer in the Caribbean, but T20 does. It embodies the spirit of Calypso cricket that the West Indies made their own, with outrageous batting feats, over three decades. The West Indians do not frighten anyone any longer when they wear white, but put them in maroon pyjamas and they rule the night. Players who are mediocre from 11am to 6pm, suddenly become supermen under floodlights: batsmen show amazing powers, bowlers become untouchable.

There is no question that the three outstanding teams of the tournament have been New Zealand, West Indies and England. However, New Zealand were de-railed when their attempt to use Plan A for a fifth consecutive match failed because it came up against a side that was much more comfortable with this plan than with anything else and there was no Plan B in the locker. While England had managed to win, somehow, with a Plan B (most notably against Sri Lanka), the game against South Africa showed that their preferred plan was to ask a side to set a target and say “you set any score that you want and we will chase it down”. England’s chase was so comfortable that you have to think that New Zealand would have struggled to defend even 200 or 210.

However, the West Indies come into the Final in a similar situation to New Zealand in the Semi-Final: the have chased in every single match so far. Success has been based on restricting the opposition and then chasing: in three of their five matches the opposition has set 122 (Sri Lanka and South Africa) or 123 (Afghanistan). England’s 182-6 was chased down with some comfort and India’s 192-2, slightly less so, although the result was not in doubt in the last couple of overs. Will the West Indies be able to adapt if it is the opposition who are chasing? Is there a West Indian Plan B?

The World T20 has been won on four out of five occasions by the team winning the Toss. On this occasion, with both sides preferring to chase and with the likelihood that dew will make bowling at the death difficult, it is hard to avoid believing that whoever wins the Toss will win the match. With the sides well-matched, the advantage of winning the Toss could covert what should be an exciting and even contest into a one-sided disappointment.

If you are an England fan you look at the amazing parallels with 2010 and wonder if history will repeat itself, with a faltering start and defeat to West Indies in the first match to a run of five straight victories and England’s only world title. To complete the fairy-tale, Eoin Morgan’s key contribution will have to be the one half an hour before a ball is bowled. If England have to defend a target, the only possible chance will be to set 200+ and pray.

The World T20: India Prove Generous Hosts

 

The World T20

India Prove Generous Hosts

 

March 31^st  2016

 

Both sides provided a surfeit of generosity, but it was India’s that, in the end, killed their chances of making the Final. Had the West Indies not, incredibly, missed running out Virat Kohli three times in two balls, the Indians would probably not have managed such a substantial total that they should have been able to defend – although any affirmation of what might have happened in T20 tends to be dangerous. However, given that he is the only Indian batsman to pass 90 runs in the tournament and has scored 41% of all the runs off the bat by India in their five matches, his loss on 1 could well have proved decisive.

It must be one of the strangest incidents ever in a cricket match. Kohli was beaten by a Bravo delivery and tried to run a bye to the ‘keeper.

Chance 1: Ramdin only needed to walk up to the stumps and break them with Kohli stranded half way up the pitch. He decided to roll the ball onto the stumps and missed.

Chance 2: Bravo picked the ball up in the middle of the pitch, with Kohli still well out of his ground. He threw and missed them on the other side. Kohli then scrambled back. Two simple runout chances missed off a single delivery.

Chance 3: Next ball, clipped to Deep Square Leg. Kohli decides to run two. The throw comes in to Ramdin, who fails to collect cleanly with Kohli well out again. A despairing dive and, by the time Ramdin has cleaned up the fumble, Kohli is safe.

Given these let-offs, India will be disappointed to have not got past 200. Despite running a lot of ones and twos, there were surprisingly few boundary hits and even fewer maximums: 17x4, 4x6.

The West Indies had a dreadful start: 19-2 after 3 overs, with both Gayle and Samuels out. That should have been the end of the match. When the asking rate got to 73 from 36 balls it only needed clear heads to see India home. However, to show their generosity as hosts, if Kohli was reprieved three times, Lendl Simmonds had to be too: twice with front-foot no balls and once when the fielder touched the rope taking a catch. You can blame the dew for bowling loosely at the death: all sides have struggled with it, but giving a key batsman two let-offs with front foot no balls is unforgiveable.

The West Indies decided that running twos was a bit too much like hard work and went for Route 1 instead: 20x4 and 11x6 – 146 in boundaries. When you do that, you can allow the occasional dot ball. Even though India only allowed 26 dot balls to pass and bowled an impressive 47 dots themselves, they forgot the basic premise that bowling three dots in an over is pretty meaningless if the other three balls all pass the boundary rope at great speed.

That is a pretty amazing number: the West Indies failed to score off almost 40% of deliveries, but still sustained 10-an-over.

India fail to break the hoodoo on hosts winning the title. The reasons are fairly clear. Although only Tamim Iqbal of Bangladesh, who played one match more and who faced several Associate attacks, aggregated more runs than Virat Kohli, we have to go all the way down to 36^th place to find the next highest Indian run-scorer (in contrast, England have Root, Roy and Buttler in the top six and the West Indies, three in the top sixteen), while the top Indian bowler is joint 18^th in the wicket table.

So now, we are left with a West Indies v England Final: not quite what the locals expected, or hoped, to see.

England were poor in their first match of the tournament: their defeat to the West Indies. Since then, England have just made one change to the side: Reece Topley has been replaced by Liam Plunkett and, suddenly, the balance of the attack has changed – there is no longer the sameness of pace, the lack of new ball threat (although Plunkett has not taken the new ball). There are plenty of bowling options based on pace, seam, swing (if on offer) and spin in both directions. But, as in the Semi-Final, they face an attack that has an attack that has performed outstandingly well: two of the five best economy rates for bowlers who have bowled at least 8 overs in the tournament belong to Badree and Benn.

The Final will be hard to call. Most neutrals will be rooting for the West Indies, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with an England team that is on the up. Whatever happened in the early stages of the competition will have little bearing on the result and remember, when England won in 2010, they were well-beaten by the West Indies in their opening game and barely scrambled out of their group.

The World T20: Never Mind India: Can Anyone Stop England Now?

 

The World T20

Never Mind India: Can Anyone Stop England Now?

 

March 30^th  2016

Having won the Toss in four straight matches, New Zealand finally lost one. It hardly mattered though: New Zealand wanted to bat and England wanted to chase. New Zealand had defended modest totals on several occasions and felt confident that the bowlers could do it again. England had chased-down 230 and fancied any reasonable total. New Zealand were slight favourites with the bookies, but England felt that they have their measure now, despite some appalling humiliations at New Zealand hands in the recent past.

At 55-1 after the PowerPlay and 89-1 at half way, there was every chance of a total around 200 and a very tough chase for England. Opponents of New Zealand have seen how they may start the chase well, but the New Zealand spinners have inevitably reined them in and hauled them back: to chase 200 would have been a tall order against a side that is consistently tough to beat in the shorter formats. Little were New Zealand to know that their total would prove woefully inadequate and that England would always be well ahead in the over comparison.

Where did it go wrong for New Zealand? Firstly, the innings simply ran out of steam. 89-1 after 10 overs, you would expect to score 120+ in the last 10 overs: New Zealand managed 64-7. England conceded just 20 runs in the last 4 overs and took five wickets. The pressure was already on in overs 11-14, in which only 22 were scored and the run rate plummeted. After the tenth over, one fan suggested that Eoin Morgan give up on his spinners because they were England’s weak link: Moeen Ali then came on and bowled two tight overs, removing Kane Williamson into the bargain and suddenly the momentum had slipped from New Zealand. Although Adil Rashid was relatively expensive (4-0-33-0) no one got after him either. The et tu, Brute? For New Zealand though was when Stokes and Jordan came on for the death overs and strangled the life out of the batsmen.

Jordan and Stokes? Two weeks ago, you would have been treated as almost certifiably insane to suggest that they were the ideal death over combination. Spectators in the Upper Tier of the Grandstand would start to worry about hard hats and life insurance when they came on to bowl. Chris Jordan was ridiculed every time that he took the ball. Hardly anyone remembered how Chris Jordan had bowled an extraordinary over in the super over in the UAE, limiting Pakistan to 3-1. As the tournament has progressed though, Chris Jordan has come on time and again at the death and, however much punishment he may have taken earlier, has been mean and tight. Ben Stokes has changed from being wild and loose to a handy foil. Between them, they produced the best ever spell of four death overs for England in a T20. People are not laughing at Chris Jordan now and Ben Stokes has come on by leaps and bounds.

Defending 153, New Zealand wanted a good start. What they received was a treatment similar to the one that South Africa had suffered. When, by the end of the third over, the back of the target has been more or less broken, you know that it is going to be tough to come back. Four boundaries for Jason Roy in the first over. A four and a six in the third. Another four and a six in the fourth. Two boundaries in the fifth. 60-0 after five overs and the target down to a fraction over a run-a-ball. Alex Hales – 15 from 10 balls – almost unnoticed as Jason Roy filleted the attack. When Hales fell the asking rate was 72 from 72 balls – plenty of room to re-trench, if necessary. England did when Roy and Morgan fell in consecutive balls in the 13^th over, but the bad news for New Zealand was that it left Joe Root and Jos Buttler together with plenty of time to play themselves in before the final assault. When the assault came – 32 from 9 balls – it was brutal and definitive. England won by a margin of seven wickets with seventeen balls to spare which, at this level, is almost an abyss.

No less important was the fact that, for the first time in the tournament, the spinners could not give New Zealand the type of stranglehold control that they had exercised up to now. For the first time, Santner and Sodhi came in for some heavy punishment: Sodhi’s two wickets were bought at a high price of 42 runs, double his previous economy in the tournament; while Santner went at just under 9 an over.

Now England await the winner of the second Semi-Final. And whoever plays them now knows that they will not be facing soft opposition. England have won chasing and defending a target and are showing some tremendous fighting powers. Underrate them at your peril.

Sadly, the England ladies will not join them in the Final. Chasing a modest 133 to win in the morning game on the same pitch, England were coasting at 89-1. 43 from 39 balls was the equation. Australia looked dead in the water, but England’s challenge just faded away and they finished 5 short. Both sides struggled in the death overs: Australia managed 22-3 and England, 31-4 but, the biggest singles factors were an inability of the England batswomen to makes ones into twos and pressure the fielders, plus the total lack of any contribution from the middle order in the entire tournament. Charlotte Edwards and Tammy Beaumont aggregated 340 runs in 10 innings; ten other batswomen managed just 256 runs between them in 49 innings. While the bowling has been magnificent – only Karen Brunt can say that she had a modest tournament and even she was by no means poor – there were only two scores higher than 20 from anyone other than Edwards and Beaumont, despite facing some very modest attacks in the group phase.

Part of the issue is that, outside the “Big Three”, although that standard has improved enormously, the depth is still poor. Lack of opportunity has reduced the development even of the top sides, let alone the Bangladeshes and Sri Lankas of the womens’ game. It has meant that a side like England can progress without ever playing well, because they are not being pushed and hardened, save when they play Australia or New Zealand and games against Australia and New Zealand are still far too few and far between. However, playing the mens’ and womens’ World Cups in parallel has at least raised the profile of the womens’ game, which is a start.

The West Indies have shown that there is still life in Caribbean cricket by reaching the Semi-Finals in both tournaments (along with England and New Zealand). In both contests they will start as the underdogs. They would do the game in their region a huge favour by reaching both Finals and would help to redress the balance of power in both the mens’ and the womens’ game. The balance of probability though is that they will be overpowered in both contests.
  

The World T20: Can Anyone Stop India Now?

 

The World T20

Can Anyone Stop India Now?

 

March 29^th  2016

 

Five overs left at Mohali. The run rate required has been climbing steadily. India are twelve behind Australia at the same stage and need two runs per ball. They have been well behind Australia at the same stage ever since the second over of the innings. This is the sort of situation that Australian teams have become clinical at closing-out, choking the life from their opponents over the years. Watson is bowling the seventeenth over: 19 balls to go, 43 wanted. Surely Australia have this one under control? The last Asian side in the World T20 are going out. The Australian bowlers just need to keep their heads and keep the ball up.

The next four balls go for 4, 4, 4 & 6 as Watson goes wide, then Faulkner drops it short, then bowls a yorker that would have been perfect had it been straight and then drops invitingly short again. In four balls Dhoni and Kohli have broken Australian spirits. The fight has gone. Four boundaries off Coulter-Nile’s next over as the bowler gets his lines wrong and it is all but over. For all the brilliance of Virat Kohli, you have to think that Australia folded like a card house under pressure when two dot balls might have won them the match.

With the West Indies hanging on to top spot in Group 1 and India ending the prospect of an Australia v New Zealand Final, the pundits seem convinced that only an act of god can stop India meeting New Zealand in the Final.

New Zealand v England

India v West Indies

For the marketing men, an India v England Final is the enticing prospect: east v west; former colony v colonial master, the inventor of the game v its biggest powerhouse. A Final without India is simply inconceivable and if the Final involves some historical payback, so much the better. However, part of the fun for many fans is to play down England’s chances of getting anywhere near the Final as far as possible.

Many England fans are looking at tomorrow’s match and thinking that they have got the easiest opponent of the other Semi-Finalists. Some New Zealand fans are indignant, thinking that their side is being unjustly made underdogs. Think again. New Zealand have shown imperious form so far. They are unbeaten. They have been put under severe pressure, most notably by Australia in their first game and came out on top. They then went out and beat the hosts by a wide margin despite defending a small total. The New Zealand spinners have tied the opposition in knots. And New Zealand have played every game at a different ground and won each time.

Interestingly, both Semi-Finals were previewed in the warm-ups. India hammered the West Indies in Kolkata, albeit in a 15 v 15 game, while England won comfortably against New Zealand, inflicting their only defeat of the tour of India so far in an 11 v 12 game. However, that was a very different New Zealand side. Perhaps it was that defeat that led to New Zealand’s change from a seam-based attack (4 seamers v England) to a spin-based attack in the competition proper. Many pundits thought that by dropping their two best seamers and playing two spinners with no great record they were making a disastrous mistake, but it has worked brilliantly and, in that warm-up defeat, Santner was their most effective bowler, with 2-24, including a rare maiden (there have been only five in the entire tournament). No one has yet been able to get after the three spinners. Santner and Sodhi have 17 wickets between them and are going at only just over 5 runs per over. Of bowlers who have bowled at least eight overs in the competition, only Liam Plunkett and, very marginally, Suleiman Benn have been more economical than Ish Sodhi.

While England will stick to a seam-based attack, New Zealand will stick to their formula of three spinners: who will read the conditions best? Who will cope best with the opposition attack?

The game is a very open one. As Trevor Bayliss put it – not very tactfully – New Zealand are not a team of superstars: they win by working as a team and have, for many years, perfected a system whereby the whole is so much more than the sum of the parts. It is what makes New Zealand such dangerous opponents. On form alone, it should be no contest: New Zealand have looked far and away the best team in the tournament. England, in contrast, scraped past Sri Lanka and Afghanistan and were asked to make a record chase against South Africa. Sooner or later you feel, someone will ask the same questions that Chris Gayle asked and there will be no answer. However, this being England, you can never tell: the fact that they have extricated themselves from some tight spots and that they are coming in under the radar as a seriously underrated team can only help. The bookies have New Zealand as slight favourites but, in a day-night game, much may depend on the Toss: if New Zealand win it and bowl, they will feel supremely confident; if England are chasing, they know that they can chase down any target.\

The second Semi-Final looks an open and shut case. India have been erratic so far but, now that they have faced down and won two elimination contests that seemed lost, you would be rash to bet against them, especially having fought their way out of the tougher group. For all the remarkable form that the West Indians have shown (and do not put much weight on that defeat against Afghanistan), it is difficult to see India stumbling now. Both teams are basing their campaigns on powerful batting, with the bowling generally being the weaker suit, that remarkable last over against Bangladesh excepted. India can take confidence from the fact that someone has always stepped up when needed.

Virat Kohli’s effort against Australia was truly remarkable, but there must be a little concern that no one else has really got any runs (only Dhoni and Yuvraj have more than 50 in the tournament). Similarly, the bowling has been based on economy and not strike-power: the 24 wickets taken by India have been shared around by six bowlers with Pandya’s five the best haul, although he is also by far the most expensive of the bowlers.

For the West Indies, Russell, Gayle and Samuels all have useful runs and Badree, Bravo and Russell all have wickets, while Benn has shown extraordinary control and economy. On paper, their form looks better but, as any Indian fan will tell you, “they haven’t played us yet”. Now, in the Semi-Finals, logic no longer applies: it is raw emotion and India will have tens of thousands of baying fans creating a hostile atmosphere, utterly convinced that their heroes cannot lose. Can a near 37 year old Chris Gayle, who surely will not be playing when the next World Cup or World T20 are played, go out with a bang? If Gayle were to fall cheaply, India will have a massive lift – if Gayle gets in, India will have to find a way of stopping him. The match may depend on which of Gayle and Kohli performs best on the day.

I will go, tentatively, for a England v India Final but, in this tournament, too much is tending to depend on the Toss: in these day/night games, the side that is chasing has always had a big advantage – in the first Semi-Final at least, the teams are so well balanced that on such things may, unfortunately, hang the entire match.

The World T20: Houdini England in Extremis. India on the Brink.

 

The World T20

Houdini England in Extremis. India on the Brink.

 

March 26^th  2016

 

Whisper it quietly, but the prospect of a World T20 in India without an Asian side in the Semi-Finals just got a step closer and the odds on dark horses England have just got a lot shorter. For the third time in a row England got themselves into an awful mess, vindicating the sceptics (many of them English) who expected South Africa to sneak through thanks to an England meltdown and somehow managed to extricate themselves. If you had to pick two bowlers to take and turn a situation that seemed lost, in the last two overs, with two established batsmen apparently cruising to a comfortable win, all too few runs to play with and the batsmen in control, it would not have been Jordan and Stokes.

After Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali had gone for a collective 4-0-63-0, reviving a Sri Lankan side that had looked dead and buried, Chris Jordan followed an initial spell of 2-0-16-1 with 2-0-12-3 in overs 17 and 19 to swing the pendulum back towards England. Ben Stokes then bowled an over of pinpoint yorkers to concede just 4 from the final over.

As against South Africa and against Afghanistan, England alternated brilliance with spells of utter dross. Fortunately, the Sri Lankans we capable of even worse dross, without quite touching the heights of brilliance that England managed when the mood took them, despite the almost single-handed efforts of the valiant Angelo Matthews who, in the end, simply could not make up for the inadequacy of his teammates on his own. Matthews top-scored, almost shepherded the chase home and was the most economical bowler for his team. While England staggered like a disorientated drunk to 8-1 after 3 overs of the powerplay, Sri Lanka trumped them with 15-4. 99-3 after 15 overs left the pundits wondering if England could get to around 140 and a possibly defensible total – the last 5 overs though went for 72-1, as Sri Lanka loosened the noose and offered their erstwhile victim an easy chair, a brandy and a cigar. 140 became 150 and then 170. However, despite the hapless Moeen Ali going for 21 in the sixteenth over, Sri Lanka could only garner 50-3 from the last 5 overs and 29-3 from the last four. From the twelfth over until the start of the nineteenth, Sri Lanka were always ahead, sometimes well ahead, of England at the same stage but, like a 400 metre runner who ties up in the last few metres and sees his or her rivals surge past on the line, Sri Lanka’s powerful sprint for the line ended in a despairing and impotent stagger.

The fate of Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali should have put the last nail in the coffin of the theory that England could play three spinners. Had England played a rookie spinner instead of one the seamers (probably Ben Stokes), they would have lost. Adil Rashid was the revelation of the Big Bash and has had some fine performances for England in all formats in the last year, but Moeen Ali, Adil Rashid and Joe Root have gone at an average of 10-an-over so far in the tournament. In contrast, Liam Plunkett has cost 4.4 runs per over and even the heavily (and unfairly) criticised Chris Jordan has gone for only 8.5.

England look set to play New Zealand in the 1^st Semi-Final in Delhi, scene of today’s match. However, were the West Indies to relax and slip up against Afghanistan, England could still top Group 1 and end up playing Australia or India in Mumbai.

West Indies v Afghanistan is the warm-up. The West Indies have been in imperious form so far and it seems inconceivable that Afghanistan can inconvenience them, but T20 does not always obey the tenets of logic and Afghanistan have pushed Sri Lanka, England and South Africa hard without quite being able to force a win. The day-night match that follows is though, begging the pardon of India v Pakistan, THE biggest match of the tournament so far. Whoever wins goes to the second Semi-Final in Mumbai to play the Winner of Group 1, the losing side goes home. The two biggest sides in world cricket are fighting for their lives when most pundits expected this match to be a preview of the Final. For India, the #1 side in T20 to fail to qualify for the Semi-Finals in their own tournament is almost inconceivable, even more so given that they are the IPL specialists: the biggest, the baddest, the toughest T20 warriors in the world, who play their cricket in the world’s finest T20 finishing school. If India lose, Asia will be left without a representative in the Semi-Finals. India were a distant second best to New Zealand, somehow scraped past Bangladesh and beat Pakistan convincingly. Expectations are high and the pressure to win at home higher still.

In front of India is an Australian side that failed in a modest chase against New Zealand, suffered a major wobble against Bangladesh before winning and then beat Pakistan fairly comfortably. Like England, both sides seem vulnerable but, while Australia have gradually started to show their best form, India have been erratic. It suggests that Australia should start as slight favourites, especially if the large and excitable crowd starts to turn against their team.