World Cup 2019, Days 20-23: Oh, England! Sri Lanka blow qualification wide open

 

World Cup 2019

Days 20-23: Oh, England! Sri Lanka blow qualification wide open

June 22^nd 2019

Just when you thought that this World Cup had no surprises to offer. Just when you thought that the Big Four would navigate calmly into the Semi-Final. Just when you thought that England had got rid of their brainstorm day against Pakistan and were looking frightening, enter the dragon… or, in this case, the Lion.

Most pundits had written-off Sri Lanka, who have looked pretty awful so far. Their route to qualification still looks difficult, but two of their veterans have shown that there is life yet in the side.

Four days. Four matches. And the Big Four suffering a bit more than anyone expected apart, of course, from India, whose serene progress should continue today, against Afghanistan.

It is interesting that, with two games in hand now over most of their rivals, India should play the side destined to finish bottom, with a perfect, losing record. How much damage was done to Afghanistan on Monday when, after a slow start, England hammered their bowlers to such brutal effect, that it was a surprise that that last ball of the innings failed to go for the boundary that would have brought up the 400?

The England innings can be summed-up by a few numbers:

·       England were 46-1 after 10 overs, but scored 142-4 from the last 10.

·       England were 106-1 after 20 overs, but scored 233-4 from the last 20.

·       Eoin Morgan’s World Cup record 17, 6s meant that he scored 102 of his 148 runs in 6s.

·       Moeen Ali, who has been in poor form with the bat, scored 30 from his first 8 balls at the death, before only being able to dig out the last ball for a single, to finish with 31 from 9.

·       Rashid Khan, the Afghan spin wizard, went for 9-0-110-0 and would have taken the record for the most expensive figures ever in an ODI had he bowled his full 10 [Mick Lewis, of Australia, got his 10^th over v South Africa, in 2006 and finished with 10-0-113-0].

When Jofra Archer removed Noor Ali Zadran quickly, the sense of embarrassment was palpable. Gulbadin Naib added some defiance and, although Afghanistan never made a real effort to chase (strangely, they were actually ahead of England after 10 overs), they batted out their overs for their best-ever World Cup total.

There was little in a 150-run margin to suggest the disaster to come.

New Zealand then played a low-scoring cliff-hanger against South Africa. Certain traditions were observed. South Africa lost one of their openers quickly – in this case, de Kock. Although #2-6 all got starts, no one could push on. And 241-6 from 49 overs looked like being an interesting chase given that New Zealand’s largest, so far in the tournament, was the 245 to win against Bangladesh, which ended in the closest finish to a match so far. New Zealand were ahead of the chase for most of the innings, although some tight overs around over 30 actually led to South Africa having their noses in front. The difference, though, was that Kane Williamson was still there and, in partnership with Jimmie Neesham, chipped away and chipped away at the target. When Neesham fell, had Williamson followed, surely South Africa would have won.

Eight to win from the last over.  Phehlukwayo to bowl. Single first up. Williamson on strike. Phehlukwayo tries a variation. Williamson sees it and dumps the ball into the stands to bring up his century with his first six. Another boundary, third ball – 11 from 3 deliveries in a low-scoring match – and Williamson was the difference between the two sides.

The question is: if they are faced with chasing 320, or 340 instead of 240, how will New Zealand do? We do not yet know.

Then, we had Australia against a re-vitalised Bangladesh. The fans expected a blood-bath and got it, but not the way that they had expected. At 30 overs Australia were going along at 5.6, showing little sign of what was to come. Crucially, though, there were wickets in hand and a set batsman. 168-1 from 30 overs suggested 330-340, but Australia had obviously been watching England’s methods: 213 from the last 20 overs, 131 from the last 10 overs. The third highest score of the World Cup so far. Far too many, one thought.

Bangladesh, though, are beginning to believe in their ability. Even though wickets fell regularly, they kept chasing hard and, at half way, were 177-4 and 9 ahead of Australia at the same stage. Mushifiqur and Mahmudullah came together and put together a big partnership although, critically, slipped further and further behind the asking rate.

With 5 overs to go and 82 wanted, Australia just needed to keep calm but, at 300-4, Bangladesh were just in the match still.

One big over? It was the 46^th.

Nathan Coulter-Nile conceded just four runs and took wickets with consecutive balls. That over killed-off Bangladesh and the only remaining interest was Mushifiqur’s century, which he duly obtained in the penultimate over. Australia won and won well, putting down a big marker, but the suggestion remains that their support bowling is vulnerable.

Can Australia defend 340 against a good batting line-up?

And then, the one that hurts for the hosts. Literally. And metaphorically. A body blow in the gut.

Sri Lanka batted and, after 14 balls, were 3-2: one each for Archer and Woakes. The track looked like a belter. The pundits were suggesting that Sri Lanka would need 350+ to have some hope of defending. When Angelo Matthews came in, he could hardly get bat to ball. At 30 overs it was 133-5 and one wondered if Sri Lanka could get to 220. Would England take 20? 25? 30 overs to seal the win?

However, Sri Lanka never folded. Matthews started to get a little more fluent. 180 was passed. Then 200. Then 220. 232 looked way short, but the momentum had shifted slightly because it was quite a lot more than Sri Lanka would have expected half an hour earlier.

James Vince, stand-in stuntman for Jason Roy takes a single off the first ball. Jonny Bairstow faces. Straight. Bairstow hits across the line. 1-1 and, suddenly, the butterflies are fluttering. James Vince doesn’t last long. 26-2 and the World Cup is awake. This was England’s nightmare scenario: chasing a small total on a pitch that, despite the opinion of the pundits, is proving hard to score on fluently.

Root and Morgan together. Surely order will be restored. England to win by eight wickets? They bedded-in carefully, always below 4-an-over. In other sides this would be a bad sign, after the Afghanistan game it was simply the promise of a rain of sixes to come, but they never did.

73-2: everything under control.

127-3: everything under control. Root and Stokes batting nicely.

And then the innings disintegrated. Ben Stokes played sensibly and tried to guide the tail towards the target. Even at 170-5, with Moeen looking in the mood, the target seemed trivial. Sri Lanka kept the pressure on. The RRR passed a run-a-ball and wickets fell. The bowlers were magnificent. The fielders backed them up. Stokes and Wood put on 26 for the last wicket and one wondered if there might yet be a last twist. Pradeep bowled a quick one. Wood edged. Perera pouched. And the great upset was sealed.

It looked for all the world as if, with a small target and England always up with the Sri Lanka score at the same stage, the batsmen just relaxed too much.

However, Lashith Malinga, with 10-1-43-4, showed that he can still be a potent force. It was the wonderful performance that toppled the pre-tournament favourites by making his team-mates believe in what seemed impossible.

Sri Lanka now play South Africa, West Indies and India. If they win those first two matches, their last game, against India, the penultimate qualifier of the tournament, will become a possible Semi-Final eliminator. How it would set things up!

How much damage has this defeat done England, who are now faced with most-likely having to beat at least two and possibly all three of New Zealand, Australia and India to qualify?

World Cup 2019, Days 18-19: Pakistani Pain, Indian Joy, Bangladeshi Ecstasy

 

World Cup 2019

Days 18-19: Pakistani Pain, Indian Joy, Bangladeshi Ecstasy

June 17^th 2019

Historians tend to classify events around a war as: before the war, the war, after the war. So too the World Cup. We have had two and a half weeks of “Phony War” before the main event and now, we have the aftermath.

First and most important: India and Pakistan got a game in at Manchester, despite the best efforts of the Manchester weather and it was friendly both on and off the pitch. Appeals to fans to keep things peaceful and to enjoy the day, worked, with a fabulous atmosphere in the stands. The game was played in the best possible spirit, helped by the fact that the majority of the crowd went home happy after seeing a complete performance from their heroes.

Pakistan, won the Toss, had a couple of real opportunities to get on top, made a decent start to a chase that was tough but, by no means impossible, but ultimately folded just when it seemed as if they might push India to the limit. The Indians, with the backing of the majority of the crowd, had much greater squad depth and the confidence that comes with being unbeaten and of having a winning record against their opponents. It was an unbeatable combination and, now, surely only England stand before them and undefeated run to the Semi-Finals.

Pakistan had several urgent tasks in this match. First and foremost, get the win points. And then, nearly as important, deny them to India, to give the chasing pack some hope. Finally, there was the small matter of improving their severely negative NRR, which could yet be the deciding factor in qualification if one of the Big Four falter and of trying to get some much-needed momentum behind their faltering campaign. Unfortunately for them, they failed in all of these. Pakistan can now reach only 11 points, maximum. India, with five games left, are on 7 and have a far superior NRR. Thus India knew that even a narrow defeat would serve their interests, but set out to make a big statement of intent anyway.

For Pakistan to win, they had to be aggressive and take their chances. They won the Toss, saw some moisture and decided to chase. Newly-elected Prime Minister, Imran Khan, who has held aloft the World Cup, gave his team five pieces of advice, none of which included giving the opposition century-maker a life on 42, or on spraying the new ball around in conditions that should have been perfect for seam bowling. By the time the openers were separated, the century partnership was long past and the scoring rate 5.7 per over. India were set up for a total anywhere in the range from 350-380, so 336 actually represented a decent effort from the bowlers, albeit helped by the extraordinary decision of Virat Kohli to walk when he had not actually hit that ball from Mohammad Amir that a gleeful Sarwaz threw up. Although Mohammed Amir finished with the excellent figures of 3-47, the truth is that his wickets were too little, too late. His opening spell of 4-1-8-0 was economical, but largely unthreatening and came with two warnings attached for running on the pitch. Similarly, India saw off a second, brief burst from him (2-0-10-0) around the thirtieth over but, tellingly, that second spell was not when Kohli had just arrived at the wicket, which would have been the aggressive tactic. Amir’s 3-29 from his last four overs were a tale of wickets when it was too late to stop the Indian juggernaut. To have had a chance, Pakistan needed Mohammad Amir to get at least one of the openers in his new ball spell, but he received scant support from Hasan Ali, whose initial spell was loose and whose final figures were truly eye-watering, although the fact that he did not bowl his full allotment at least saved him from the very real danger of a century of his own.

India were just too good. Apart from Rahul, who took on the sheet anchor role and the very brief intervention of MS Dhoni, all the batsmen scored at, or well over, a run-a-ball. In contrast, Pakistan were always behind the chase from the end of the third over. No one scored at a run-a-ball until defeat was certain and when Bhuveneshwar – Bhuvi – slipped awkwardly in his follow-through, half way through the fifth over of the innings and left the match and, at least for now, the tournament (he is not expected to return until near the end of qualifying), Vijay Shankar came on to complete the over and, removed Imam-ul-Haq with his first delivery. Even Indian misfortune was turned into success for the boys in blue.

Despite the century partnership for the second wicket, the bowling was tight, the fielding tighter and Pakistan just slipped further and further behind the asking rate. At 117-1 they had a chance to build some kind of position for an assault, but a disastrous collapse of four wickets in nineteen balls ended any hope of an exciting finish, as Yadav and Pandya squeezed the life out of the chase in a way that the Pakistani bowlers had singularly failed to do.

In the end, though, not for the first time, a major ICC match in England ended in farce as the drizzle descended. Pakistan had been drowning for a considerable time and this seemed an appropriate simile for their innings. The crowd dispersed as the cut-off time approached and then, unexpectedly, the rain stopped, the covers came off and the umpires decreed, to everyone’s amazement and to not a little horror from broadcasters, that five overs remained, when it was believed that there was time for just four at the very most. Pakistan were left to score 136 from 30 balls: 22x6 + 1x4 would do it. Several of the Indian players had to change back into their uniforms to come back out and the half-empty stands were treated to some slap-stick cricket as Pakistan accumulated enough runs against a unsurprisingly apathetic opponent, to make the DL margin look slightly more respectable, without ever changing the end result of a massive win for India.

India know that three wins from their last five games will see them safely into the Semi-Finals. Pakistan know that they need a miracle, starting with a win for Afghanistan against England tomorrow. Good luck to them on that one.

Who remembers the West Indian side who destroyed Pakistan in their first match and then gave the Australians a considerable fright, before falling just short in the chase? Or the West Indians who had South Africa on the rack when the rain arrived?

Since then, they have been destroyed by England and, now, by Bangladesh. There was a curious symmetry in that, in both defeats, the West Indies were 8-1 after 5 overs. Against England, they never really recovered. Against Bangladesh, despite a scarcely believable 13-ball duck from Chris Gayle, explosive innings from Hetmyer and Holder took them to 321-8. The match though turned in the 40^th over. In it, Mustafizur Rahman removed the destructive Hetmyer and then Andre Russell. Suddenly, Bangladeshi heads, which were beginning to drop, rose visibly and the team had a spring in their step. Although Shai Hope remained, his scoring rate was nothing special, putting pressure on his partner and costing his side some 15-20 vital runs.

Bangladesh started positively and were never behind the asking rate. They could even afford their own mini-collapse and still push on for victory. In fact, losing two, quick wickets barely slowed their charge. Just when the win-predictor showed that the West Indies were marginal favourites again, they seemed to give up on the match. Yes, Shakhib scored a wonderful century and Liton Das fell just short of his own, but the West Indians were woeful. In the end, 321-8 was not 15-20 short; it was at least 70-80 short of providing the joyous Bangladeshis a testing chase. Victory was achieved with eight and a half overs to spare and was a humongous pummelling to mark passing the half-way point in qualifying. Yes, we have got through 23 of the 45 games.

Bangladesh now lead the chasing pack, but have a far inferior NRR to any of the top four. Worse, they still have to play Australia and India and, realistically, they need to take a minimum of 3 points from those two games to have a chance to snatch that final qualifying spot, as well as beating convincingly both Afghanistan and Pakistan, but they are still very much alive in the competition, which is something that South Africa, the West Indies and Pakistan will envy.

Before that, Afghanistan should become the first side eliminated mathematically from the World Cup if they lose to England tomorrow. England will be without Jason Roy for the Aghanistan and Sri Lanka matches, at least and, intriguingly, although James Vince is expected to replace him tomorrow, have not ruled-out an unexpected late call-up for Alex Hales. To err is human (and boy is Alex Hales showing himself to be human), but to forgive is divine (and it seems that a certain red-haired Irishman is showing his potential, extraordinary divinity, here). England go into the match massive favourites and nothing less than a big win will suffice, which would elevate the hosts to the top of the World Cup table and put them close to a Semi-Final spot.

 

World Cup 2019, Days 14-17: The Semi-Finalists Become Clear

 

World Cup 2019

Days 14-17: The Semi-Finalists Become Clear

June 15^th 2019

We are still not half way through the qualifying matches but, already, the four Semi-Finalists seem to be almost decided. Barring a major meltdown, which is still possible at this stage, they will be, in some order:

·       Australia,

·       England,

·       India

·       New Zealand

It is hard to see any other side coming out of the chasing pack. One uses the word “chasing” in its broadest sense, because it implies some sort of momentum, which none of the other six teams have. At one point it looked as if the West Indies might be powerful contenders, but two defeats – one that should have been a comfortable win and the other by a huge margin, have slowed their progress to a crawl.

In theory, with four teams on 3 points and another on 4, tucked-in behind India on 5 points, mid-table is as tight as it could be, but one cannot help thinking that this is a tournament of two divisions: the big four disputing the Semi-Final crosses and the other six, playing to be best of the rest. It was the danger of this tediously long format in which there will be a lot of meaningless games in the last week before the Semi-Final pairings are decided.

A lot of matches now are becoming the last-chance saloon. Tomorrow, India v Pakistan will have a lot more riding on it than just national pride, as a defeat will all-but-seal Pakistan’s fate. A win for Pakistan would not be fatal for India’s chances, but would at least keep some interest open, putting both on 5 points, although India would have a game in hand and a much-superior Net Run Rate. This is what “last chance saloon” means for Pakistan: they would, most likely, still have to win three of their last four group matches at very least, by big margins and, quite likely, all four to gate-crash the Semi-Final party. However, if Pakistan lose, it is hard to see a way back for them. If they were to win though, failure to qualify for the Semi-Finals would become secondary: they will have won their own Final.

Even if defeat for India would not stop them on their serene path to the Semi-Finals, it would though be a severe blow to national pride. If you are not from the sub-continent, the game is just one more but, even for the neutrals, the hype surrounding this contest becomes infectious: green versus blue, Islam versus Hindu (forgetting, of course, the other substantial minorities in both countries), two nuclear-armed states in a permanent, low-level war. If you are in Indian or a Pakistani, it is more than just a cricket match. If you are a neutral, it is hard not to chuckle at the Pakistani parody of captured pilot, Abhinandan Varthaman, although Indians have found it distinctly un-funny, while Pakistan have been less-than-amused by the war of Dhoni’s gloves. To us, such things are imaginative one-upmanship of the kind that England and Australia revel in, but if you are an Indian or a Pakistani, such things have become almost casus belli. It is not a simple cricket match. It is a war between two great nations, two identities, two ways of life.

Back to the recent action, such as it has been.

India’s match with New Zealand, at Trent Bridge, became the fourth casualty of the weather. A share of the points was a good result for both sides, as long as both continue to defeat lesser opposition in their other matches. New Zealand’s next match is against South Africa and, if they will it, as they should, the Black Caps will have one foot in the Semi-Final.

The good West Indian start to the tournament, though, came to a crashing halt against the buffers at Southampton. Once England broke an 89-run fourth wicket stand, the batting had little more to offer. 202-6 became 212ao and, although both Roy and Morgan were unable to bat, the former with a hamstring problem, the latter with a back spasm, England cruised to their target, despite needing an emergency opener and an emergency first drop.

Truth be told, the win was not quite as good as it looked. Joe Root’s occasional off-spin was required in mid-innings at the West Indies threatened to post a substantial total, more catches went down and, as the target approached, England slowed in the chase, but it was still pretty convincing, with the target reached with almost twenty overs to spare. Joe Root took 2-27 and then added an unbeaten century. Chris Woakes showed that he could bat in the top order, if necessary and added a composed 40 to his 1-16 and Mark Wood and Jofra Archer took 3, cheap wickets apiece and bowled with enormous venom, being far too much for the tail (none of the last three scored a run). As a warning to other sides it was a pretty good shot across the bows. England have not played at more than 90% of their ability since the opening win against South Africa and yet still knock over opponents and now have possibly their two easiest games to come against Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.

Speaking of not playing to potential, but still winning, Australia have done it themselves a fair bit so far but, today, after a slow start, the Australian war machine was brutal.

Australia started circumspectly. Finch and Warner went off at under 5-an-over, little hinting at the mayhem to come and Sri Lanka must have been justifiably proud of their efforts. The opposition were 100-2 after 23 overs and there were real hopes of keeping them to 260-280. David Warner looks a shadow of the destructive batsman that he was – the runs are coming, but at a gentle pace: today, 26 from 48 balls. However, Australia had wickets in hand and Finch and Smith used them. The acceleration was breath-taking. Suddenly, a total of 280 tops, was transformed into a likely 350+. When Finch and Smith were out in quick succession, Glenn Maxwell came in and marmalised the bowling. Australia’s batting though seems still to be characterised by mini-collapses and only a final flourish took them to 334. Still, you thought, far too many for Sri Lanka and so it proved, although Sri Lanka’s openers gave the Australians some anxious moments. A partnership of 115 from 93 balls, set up the chase and put Sri Lanka in pole position and, after 30 overs, Sri Lanka were comfortably ahead, with plenty of wickets in hand and, apparently cruising to victory. By this time though the run rate was flagging fast and the batting imploded spectacularly. From 206-3, Cummins, Starc and Richardson blew away the middle and lower order to the tune of 247ao. As they had done against West Indies, when Australia saw an opening, they poured through it and overwhelmed their opponents. It has become a pattern and is definitely a warning to other sides, although Australia were well-beaten by India: the England v Australia clash on June 25^th takes on a new importance.

The day’s other game was a dire affair. After a slow, but steady start, Afghanistan disintegrated horribly to 125ao, while the South African batsmen inched their way to the target, taking nearly thirty overs over it and treating the chase as an extended net. The only real, good news was that they had not fallen to 20-3 before winning.

South Africa rise to seventh in the table, just two points behind India and have improved considerably their Net Run Rate but, with just four games to play, need to win all four and hope that results fall for them. Their Waterloo may come on Wednesday, at the hands of New Zealand. Australia, in contrast, top the table, although that may be short-lived, as England will expect to replace them when they play the ever-more cowed Afghans, on Tuesday and, on the way, give their own NRR a boost.

World Cup 2019, Days 11-13: Rain and Australia the Winners

 

World Cup 2019

Days 11-13: Rain and Australia the Winners

June 12^th 2019

The relief was palpable. After two days that were drowned in the storm system that is affecting north-western Europe and whose effects have spread further south – the Pyrenees have enjoyed heavy snowfalls and good skiing conditions… in mid-June!!! – despite the virtual wipe-out of cricket elsewhere in England, Taunton stayed miraculously dry.

On Monday, South Africa and the West Indies got onto the pitch, albeit briefly. The little play reinforced the suspicion that the West Indies pace attack is going to be an important factor in this tournament and that South Africa have major problems. The point for a rained-off match keeps South Africa alive for one more match: if they win their last five games, they will qualify for the Semi-Finals however, there will not be many takers for bets on South Africa’s chances; indeed, Afghanistan may well be looking at the encounter in Cardiff, on Saturday, as an opportunity to open their account. It is not hard to see where the South African problems lie: Hasim Amla has 25 runs from 3 innings, Aiden Markram has 61, of which 45 came in a single innings, there have been just 3x50, with a highest score of 68 – in other words, poor starts and no punch lower down the order. In contrast, the West Indies bristled with threat and surely would not have let a second opponent off the hook. In Saluting Sheldon Cottrell, the West Indies also surely have the most popular player in the tournament, at least with the neutrals!

No such luck for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Bristol is a lovely city, but the weather was just awful. Even though the radar showed that the heavy rain was clearing, the drizzle never really stopped and the match was, fortunately, put out of its misery early. With their very negative Net Run Rate, Sri Lanka desperately need some middle time and a couple of wins.

So, Australia v Pakistan. Even if the expectation was for an Australian win, drama was expected on the way and, even if the scorecard says that Australia won comfortably in the end, it was thanks to the bowlers pulling the chestnuts out of the fire once again just when things started to look difficult. With the openers scoring at almost 7-an-over and Australia 189-1 after 28.3 overs, Pakistan would have been resigned to chasing 400. What happened though was another sign to the Australia-watchers that the balance of the side is not quite right: they will get to the Semi-Final, but need to do much better if they are to go further. The scoring slowed. David Warner holed out and 277-4 with 8 overs to go should still have become 350 but, Australia did not even see out their overs, losing 6 wickets for 30 runs in seven overs of Mohammed Amir-inspired mayhem.

Even so, 308 to win was a decent target against a fiery new ball attack. Pakistan fans will reflect that, had they taken their chances, it could have been a lot fewer, this though was a day when their team veered erratically between brilliant and bumbling, with not much in between. The chase seemed well under control. The Required Run Rate was not large. There were plenty of wickets in hand. “Don’t Panic, Mr. Mainwaring!” might have shouted the Pakistan coach, fearing what was to come. All it required was more, steady pursuit of the target. Pakistan though, do not seem to do steady. 136-2 became 160-6 and it looked all over as a contest. 200-7? Chance to get back to the hotel for an early evening exploring the Wild West, Taunton style. However, Australia’s support bowling has already looked like their Achilles Heel in the tournament and here too, it blinked: Sarfaraz Ahmed and Wahab Riaz went after the bowlers and the unthinkable began to look all too possible. An increasingly nervous Aaron Finch had to bring back Mitch Starc, staking everything on getting a wicket and Starc obliged with two in three, legal deliveries, while Glenn Maxwell, who had come in for some rough treatment, finished the Pakistan innings with a brilliant run out.

And breathe.

Six Pakistan batsmen reached 30. The highest score was 53. In contrast, Australia’s openers scored 82 and 107 respectively. In the end, that was the difference between the sides; with big runs in the bank, the collapse, when it came, was not so critical.

So, Pakistan go into Sunday’s match against India knowing that they can ill-afford another defeat. Before then, we have two, high-stakes matches: India take on New Zealand and England play the West Indies. One of those four sides is likely to miss out to Australia for a Semi-Final place and these two matches will give a strong indicator which it may be. India have two games in hand over a number of their rivals and will play them in quick succession: two wins and they will have one foot in the Semi-Final.

Barring a Lazarus-like revival from Pakistan, those Semi-Finalists look almost certain to come from Australia, England, India, New Zealand and West Indies.

 

World Cup 2019, Days 7-10: New Zealand and India are the Early Pace-setters

 

World Cup 2019

Days 7-10: New Zealand and India are the Early Pace-setters

June 9^th 2019

After the War of Dhoni’s Gloves, India have shown that they are warriors not to be despised on the pitch too. In the past we have had England’s footballers threatened with sanctions for wearing a poppy to honour the dead of two World Wars, now were have had Dhoni told not to wear gloves that show his justifiable pride in being an officer in the Indian Army Reserve. While the gloves may seem provocative to Pakistanis, no one should be offended by them when India are playing other sides. Whatever the reasons, the gloves came off today, both literally and metaphorically and Australia were beaten by a far wider margin than the final difference of 36 runs suggests: Australia were always chasing the game and looked extremely lack-lustre for much of it.

While India started very cautiously, they knew that the Australian change bowling was nowhere near as strong as the opening attack, giving an object-lesson in running-up a score. Wickets were conserved and the run-rate increased steadily until the final charge that took the score well beyond anything that the Australians were going to chase down without some special effort. A target of 353 to win meant setting a new World Cup record. Although Australia did not lose early wickets either, they were always struggling to keep up. David Warner played a laboured innings and, by 20 overs, and 19 behind Duckworth-Lewis, the writing was on the wall. The Indian spinners stifled the innings and the batsmen failed to show any urgency until the Required Run Rate demanded suicidal risks, at which point wickets tumbled in a heap. With defeat already certain, hardly a shot was played in anger for the last three overs.

All in all, it was an Indian performance that should worry the Hosts and some of the other sides with ambitions to win.

We have now had fourteen matches and qualification is almost one-third through. New Zealand lead the way, with a huge Net Run Rate advantage, but the cynics would say that Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan were possibly the three easiest matches of the tournament for them. New Zealand’s next game is against India and will give a good idea as to just how competitive they are against really strong opposition, as these are the last two unbeaten sides in the tournament.

The tournament enters a slight lull for the next couple of days. Tomorrow, South Africa play the West Indies in the last chance saloon, otherwise known as Southampton. While, on Tuesday, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh play what is almost a knock-out match. If Bangladesh lose, they will be all but out, while Sri Lanka have looked extremely weak so far and vulnerable to early elimination. Wednesday sees Australia play Pakistan in another match that neither side can afford to lose.

So far, we have had just one, classic match. Australia sneaked home against the West Indies in a game that, quite probably, they should have lost. Had they shown the same fighting spirit against India, the match would have been much closer. The West Indies had Australia on the rack at least three times, but somehow allowed them to escape in a low-scoring contest.

Sri Lanka and Pakistan were unfortunate to be washed-out by the same storm that has caused huge disruption to the French Open Tennis in Paris, a result that will have done the hopes of neither much good. And England… a huge win against Bangladesh suggests that, whatever went wrong against Pakistan, the side is still one to be feared, putting up by some way the largest score of the tournament so far. Cynics might say that “it was only Bangladesh”, but this is a Bangladesh side that had beaten them at the last two tournaments and one showing far more confidence and nous than previous Bangladeshi sides have done. England’s 386-6 was unusual in one respect: normally England set out to score heavily in the first few overs; on this occasion they reached a massive total having blocked-out the first five overs. As India did against Australia, the openers started slowly and accelerated steadily and, finally, brutally. You can criticise England for not finishing-off the game quicker but, perhaps, it is fairer to praise Shakib for an innings as brilliant as it was defiant; 219-4 before he fell to a rejuvenated Ben Stokes and still, just about in the game, Bangladesh’s last six wickets fell for 61.

England are still not firing at 100%: there is concern about the bowling of Adil Rashid and Chris Woakes and Moeen Ali is off-colour, but to win big when firing at only 80% should give other sides pause for thought.

However, even if Australia beat Pakistan and India beat New Zealand, New Zealand’s Net Run Rate advantage is so huge that they are almost certain to top the table still going into the weekend matches. By Sunday night though, the qualification picture for the Semi-Finals will be clearing up fast, with the challengers for qualification down to half a dozen. 

World Cup 2019, Days 4-6: Early Winners and Losers

 

World Cup 2019

Days 4-6: Early Winners and Losers

June 6^th 2019

Seven matches in and we have our first shocks… and, finally, India are about to get a game. What is more, it is not just any old game: South Africa are India’s opponents knowing that, if they lose and start with 3 defeats from 3, they will be teetering on the brink of elimination by the fastest route. Barring a combination of bad luck and run rate, a side with three defeats should progress safely to the Semi-Finals; a side with four defeats needs things to fall their way to make it through. South Africa know that they have real issues. While they might have expected to struggle against England, the way that Bangladesh controlled the game against them was alarming: even when it looked as if South Africa were cruising, you had the feeling that it was never really escaping from Bangladesh’s control.

In contrast, India will have looked at the early results with some satisfaction. Happy for England to be encumbered with the title of tournament favourites, they have watched England slip-up, following a ruthless display against South Africa, with a distinctly sloppy one against Pakistan, who they had beaten so comfortably in the pre-tournament series. Everything that England did right against South Africa (tight bowling, brilliant fielding, calm batting) they did wrong against Pakistan. That England got so close and, indeed, into a position from which they should have won, was down to brilliant innings from Joe Root and Jos Buttler, but, when both got out just as the chase seemed under control, a revived Pakistan were not to be denied. After eleven consecutive defeats, Pakistan are up and running, but India will feel confident that they have their measure.

Sri Lanka won against a spirited, but limited Afghanistan, who must have viewed this match as one of their best chances, particularly after Sri Lanka stuttered and collapsed horribly. That Afghanistan collapsed even more horribly chasing a modest target does not bode well for their chances, but the nature of Sri Lanka’s stuttering win suggests that they will not get away with victory too often and that the best sides have little to fear from them. Meanwhile, India will have watched how Australia beat Afghanistan without ever really overwhelming them and will think that this is not a vintage Australian side.

Five teams have played two matches before India play their first, but the top three in the table have played but a single game, so the embryonic World Cup table has little significance.

India go into the match today as massive favourites and will hope to leave South Africa facing a standing count. The second game of the day is Bangladesh v New Zealand at The Oval: a day-nighter. New Zealand looking to consolidate their flight under the radar and finish the day at the top of the early table.

The biggest game of the tournament so far though will be tomorrow, as Australia take on West Indies at the, normally high-scoring, Trent Bridge. That game may give a real pointer to the Semi-Finals and, potentially, which of these teams is a possible finalist: is this West Indies attack “the real deal” as their opening match against Pakistan suggested, or is it still the West Indies side that came within a hair of being eliminated by Scotland in the qualifying tournament?

After that, the India v Australia game at The Oval, on Sunday 9^th, will be another major pointer to the Final Four. England do not play again until Saturday, in Cardiff, where Bangladesh are their opponents. England will want to show that they have learnt their lessons and will need to win that one big. Bangladesh may just remember that their first win in England came against Australia, in Cardiff.

World Cup 2019, Days 1-3: Early days, One-sided games

 

World Cup 2019

Days 1-3: Early days, One-sided games

June 2^nd 2019

Recent World Cups have been like the Hundred Years War. Gone are the compact tournaments of the early editions. Who remembers that the first World Cup consisted of just fifteen matches: two groups of four, all play all once, Semi-Finals and a Final. The 1979 tournament had the same format. The 2019 tournament has no fewer than 45 group matches – FOURTY-FIVE – to pick four semi-finalists and that with the tournament reduced, controversially, to just ten teams to make it more compact and reduce the number of one-sided matches.

Of course, three days and four matches in, we have seen only one-sided matches. Two have been brief and so utterly uncompetitive that only the most ardent of supporters would have got much satisfaction from them. The other two were one-sided, but at least had some moments of competitivity.

A pattern is threatening to emerge. In all four matches, the side batting first has struggled to set a competitive total. England struggled over 300 thanks to a late flourish and that proved to be enough but, of the rest, Afghanistan’s 207 has proved the best effort.

Today, South Africa play their second match of the tournament before all ten sides have even played their first. In the all-play-all league, you would reckon that three defeats or fewer will most likely see you qualify. With four defeats, other results have to fall your way to get through. Five defeats and you are out. So, we could see the somewhat bizarre situation in which a side has two defeats and can only afford one more, before India have even played their first game. If you are a South African, you will be nervous of losing the Toss, batting and finding yourself 60-5 before the ground has filled with the late arrivals.

Four games are too few to prove a case, but a few eyebrows were raised at the 10:30am starts (of course, Australia and Afghanistan had an afternoon start, so only three of the games have begun at 10:30am). Some years back, England’s 60-over (as it was then) competition experimented with 10:30 starts to avoid twilight finishes. In September, this involved starting while the grass was still thick with morning dew. It led to the most ridiculously one-sided contests and to otherwise fairly anonymous fast-medium bowlers looking like world-class quicks.

Of course, England in early June is a totally different case to England in September. In early June, the Sun rises in Cardiff at 5am (today, it is at 05:01 while, in Manchester, further north, it is a quarter of an hour earlier still), so the pitch has had five and a half hours to dry in the Sun before the start. However, it still makes a few people nervous to think that the Toss may have such a large influence on the result, even if logic says that the dew should have long-dried at the start.

The reason why this “reduced” competition, with no Associates, is still so ridiculously long is twofold.

One, is the obvious one. Back in the West Indies in 2007, sixteen sides played 51 matches, just three fewer than this version, with six more sides playing, but Ireland had the bad taste to eliminate Pakistan in the Group Stage and Bangladesh did the unforgiveable and eliminated India in another group. This led to a Super Eight stage with no guaranteed game between India and Pakistan and with two sides that were far weaker than the rest. Despite Sri Lanka reaching the Final with some, frequently brilliant play, Asian fans switched off. TV revenues plummeted and the bean-counters decided that this situation had to be avoided at all costs in future editions.

So, we have moved to a format in which a single shock result will no long determine long-term success or failure. There have been various formats used at different times. When there are just three group games, one shock result and some back weather can eliminate a side. So, one option was for aides to play each other twice: Ireland (for example) might beat a top side once, but logic states that they are unlikely to raise their game so high several times. So, having each team play six group matches makes it far more likely that the top sides will qualify.

However, this leads us to the second reason for the all-play-all league: it guarantees an India v Pakistan match, probably the rivalry with the greatest fan-base of any sporting event in the world. And, what is more, it is a match with qualification hanging on it, but not the be all and end all of the tournament: with luck, the results will pan-out in such a way that the rivals meet again in the Semi-Final or, even better, the Final. From the point of view of the marketing men, it maximises TV revenue.

However, even a tournament that features 45 matches to eliminate just six teams, could still be made compact. Why does the tournament last more than six weeks, from May 30^th to July 14^th?

The answer is that, unlikely the early tournaments, when two or even three games were played each day at different grounds, with occasional exceptions, just one match is played per day. In the soccer World Cup, we get three and sometimes even four matches per day to complete the Group Stage quickly and to get on to the more exciting, knock-out stage. With so many matches played so quickly, early tournaments went to small grounds around the country. One of the greatest matches of all time in the World Cup was played at Tunbridge Wells, with no TV coverage at all – India came back from 17-5, thanks to Kapil Dev’s 175*, to beat Zimbabwe narrowly as the Zimbabwean chase ended just short. Tunbridge Wells is not even a regular venue for Kent, but it produced a classic.

Of course, again, broadcasting revenues are the reason for the scheduling. Unlike in soccer, the fan-base is not wide enough spread around the world to support several fixtures being played simultaneously and still produce big audience figures.

It all adds up to a tournament that will not come alive until late-June. Right now, there is still the feeling that, even if you lose your first two matches, or three of the first four, you are still alive in the tournament. The excitement will not start until each game has something hanging from it, not just the early jockeying for position that we see in a 10000 metres race.

With such one-sided matches, the take-aways are limited thus far. England found the conditions that the doubters said would be their undoing, but still managed to win comfortably. Australia dispatched Afghanistan with some comfort, even if the Afghan middle-order showed that, if they are given a base to build from, they could be a major force. Pakistan showed the frailties that Pakistan so often show – but remember how the first time that they won the tournament, England dismissed them for 77 in the Group Stages and, had rain not intervened, they would have been eliminated. The West Indian pace attack has revived comparisons with the early tournaments, New Zealand have done what New Zealand do: win, without being flashy, passing under the radar. And Sri Lanka have just looked so out of sorts that one fears for their chances of putting up any kind of performance. And then there is South Africa, who must have been mighty satisfied to limit England to 311, but did not even get close to their target.

Bangladesh play today. India debut tomorrow. By the end of the week things may look so different, but one suspects that the first three or four group games for each side will be probing, without great fireworks, as sides try different things to get points on the board and get used to the conditions and to the pitches which, thus far, are not the expected batsman-friendly tracks producing 420 plays 400 scorecards.