The World T20: Could the Elimination Matches Leave no Asian Sides in the Semi-Finals?

 

The World T20

Could the Elimination Matches Leave no Asian Sides in the Semi-Finals?

 

March 25^th  2016

 

The West Indies did England a big favour by leaving their future in their own hands in Group 1, while India set up a winner-takes-all contest in Group 2. However, to give themselves a double chance of progress, England needed the West Indies to beat South Africa by a comfortable margin and get their Net Run-Rate down below their own: in succumbing to a narrow loss only, South Africa ensured they will have a chance to progress still if England lose to Sri Lanka because their Net Run-Rate is comfortably the best of the three teams still in contention. The scenarios are fairly simple:

1.      If England win, they qualify for the Semi-Finals, almost certainly against New Zealand at Delhi on Wednesday (the tiny “if” and “but” is that a huge England win, combined with a defeat for the West Indies against Afghanistan, could see England top the group and play in the second Semi-Final instead).

2.      If England lose, they are out as their NRR is inferior to South Africa’s and can only get worse in a defeat.

3.      If England lose to Sri Lanka, the second qualifier from Group 1 will be decided in the final Group match between Sri Lanka and South Africa. If Sri Lanka win both remaining games, they qualify and two big wins, combined with a West Indian defeat against Afghanistan could even see them top the group. If Sri Lanka beat England and lose to South Africa, South Africa will, almost certainly qualify on NRR barring a huge NRR swing relative to South Africa.

In Group 2 the scenarios have been simplified as Pakistan lost to Australia and are now eliminated. Now, whoever wins the India v Australia clash will qualify for the Semi-Finals. Again, barring the combination of a huge defeat for New Zealand against Bangladesh and huge win for either India or Australia, New Zealand will play the first Semi-Final at Delhi and the winner of India v Australia will play (almost certainly) West Indies in Mumbai.

In summary:

Group 1 – winner: West Indies, England or Sri Lanka; runner-up: West Indies, England, South Africa or Sri Lanka. Definitely eliminated: Afghanistan.

Group 2 – winner: New Zealand, India or Australia; runner-up, New Zealand, Australia or India; eliminated: Pakistan and Bangladesh.

England are in the unusual position of being warm favourites against Sri Lanka. Despite speculation that Liam Dawson could be picked as third spinner, the only likely change is a fit again Alex Hales coming back for James Vince. The braver option of Dawson replacing Ben Stokes, giving England three seamers and three spinners seems unlikely to be risked: the danger is that Sri Lankan batsmen, who are comfortable against spin, could feast on a nervous rookie, while Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid bowled just five overs between them against Afghanistan. However, Sri Lanka are not Afghanistan, even if their batting is misfiring badly as they struggle to replace retired stars. England will definitely want to chase in their day-night game, however valiantly their bowlers defended a modest target against Afghanistan.

When India and Australia both lost their first game of the tournament to New Zealand they knew that survival would boil down to their game. Pakistan, who could have gate-crashed the party, have been eliminated, both beating them fairly comfortably. Pakistan have been a huge disappointment and went down meekly against Australia when they knew that it was better not to die wondering. Australia though are not a side that inspires fear any longer and kept them interested almost until the end.

India are lucky to be in the competition still. Well beaten by New Zealand, they should have lost to Bangladesh. However, they are still in with a chance of qualification and carry the expectations of a fifth of the world’s population and, as the Bangladesh game showed, know how to get out of a tight corner. Failing to qualify for the Semi-Finals of the competition in front of their own fans is simply not an option. Australia crumbled under pressure against New Zealand and stuttered against Bangladesh, but Australia are the ultimate survivors. Who will win this pressure clash is almost impossible to call.

There is, though, a real chance that none of the five Asian sides who have qualified will make the Semi-Finals: who would have imagined that before the tournament?