The World T20: Indian Confidence. Irish Dreams Shattered. Englishmen Watching from Behind the Sofa

 

The World T20

Indian Confidence. Irish Dreams Shattered. Englishmen Watching from Behind the Sofa.

 

March 15^th  2016

 

If you read the previews and the views of the fans, there is really no point in holding the World T20: it is all decided. India, playing at home, are overwhelming favourites, despite the fact that no home team has ever won it and the favourites have rarely ended up as the winners. Group 2 looks by far the stronger of the two and the supposition is that the top two in Group 1 will dispute the Final, with India coming out as winners.

The CricInfo poll leaves no doubts. 47.4% of respondents picked India as the team to beat, followed by Pakistan on 19.5%. The teams in Group 2 fill the top three places and five of the top six in the fan poll on the likely winner. In contrast, fewer than 1% of respondents backed England to win – while, to put it in perspective, 2.5% back Afghanistan.

Of course, cricket is not played on paper, nor are results decided by fan polls. The opening group game has seen India humiliated by New Zealand and by an spinner, born in India, who averages 53 in Tests, another who is trying to establish himself in the side and by a veteran who averages 46.9 in ODIs. While the best T20 bowler in the tournament – Ravi Ashwin – took 1-32, Sodhi, McCullum and Santer produced combined figures of 12-0-44-9. While New Zealand scored relatively freely against the Indian spinners, New Zealand’s unheralded trio proved almost unplayable, despite the pre-match prediction that the dew would make picking them suicidal.

The World T20 format though is such that even in this expanded version with more group games, four wins from six matches could see a team lift the trophy. When England won in 2010, how many people remember that they qualified for the second phase despite not winning either group game and could easily have lost to Ireland before rain saved them from potential defeat?

With the World T20 main tournament just starting, without Ireland, who have now slipped to 16^th of the 17 teams with an official T20 ranking, just a fraction ahead of Oman, CricInfo’s Tm Wigmore has produced a very interesting article on the Irish debacle in qualifying (http://www.espncricinfo.com/icc-world-twenty20-2016/content/story/982797.html). Aside from the fact that their entire tournament was decided by just two erratic overs in a match that seemed won, with a wash-out in their second game ending their interest, this articles echoes several conversations that I had last week with fans after their elimination: the other Associates and Affiliates are catching up, the Irish attack is beginning to look somewhat long in the tooth (T20 is a young man's game) and there may well have been some relaxing of standards. Overall though, the feeling is that the time of the golden generation is ending. Seven of the Irish squad are 25 & under and the performances of George Dockrell, in particular, were excellent when he got a chance, but the seam attack is all 30+ and was showing it. Tim Murtagh has been poached from England to lead the attack on the tenuous grounds of an Irish grandparent, but will be past 35 at the end of this season. While Tim Murtagh could have played Tests (he was on the fringes) & Boyd Rankin has played one, both are near the end of their careers now: neither should be around for the next World T20: they'll do fine in the Intercontinental Cup due to their experience, but should not play T20 if Ireland are to move forward.

Despite the understandable skepticism of fans who see their current team as simply not good enough, the Irish would, at their peak, have competed well with the lower-ranked Test sides, particularly at home. Their player base is not far short of Zimbabwe's and may well be larger and the facilities are improving. I can well imagine that Zimbabwe and Bangladesh would not have enjoyed an easy time at Stormont or Clontaff and that the West Indies would have found the Irish tough opponents on their home turf. However, the point that many of the Irish do not play regular FC cricket is a good one. Most are cast as limited-overs specialists. Dockrell, once tipped as England's next spinner, languishes in Somerset 2nd XI. The Middlesex Irish are most 2nd XI or limited-overs options and even Tim Murtagh himself knows that given the strength of the Middlesex seam attack he is not guaranteed 1st XI cricket unless there are England calls. Able to call on Tim Murtagh, Toby Roland-Jones, Steve Finn and James Harris, with Tom Helm coming through and Neil Dexter as a very good fourth seamer, it is only the fact that the batting has tended to have the stability of a blancmange that has stopped Middlesex from making a sustained challenge in the Championship. If Tim Murtagh struggles to get regular cricket, as he may, Ireland will have to ask themselves if a 35 year old seamer who was never really express pace is what they need to lead their attack. All the Irish seamers in the World T20 were the wrong side of 30 and started to creak at times. Indeed, one of the unkinder – but not inaccurate – comments was that Murtagh’s new ball partner has shown England, with some erratic overs, just what they were missing when he joined Murtagh in switching allegiance.

If the World T20 had been held immediately after the tour of the UAE, England fans would have felt supremely confident. Having competed hard in the Test series, but lost, England lost the first ODI and the fans predicted a bloodbath; England then won the remaining ODIs and T20s. A young side – and the team in the UAE was little more than a strong Lions team – looked as if their feared no one and could take on and be a match for anyone. A mauling by South Africa changed everything. However, there are reasons to feel that England could do well: in Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali England have two spinners who have shown how well they can tie sides down when there is some help in the pitch. Hales and Roy are giving express starts and the middle order, with Morgan, Buttler and Stokes can turn a match in a few overs and Moeen Ali, Adil Rashid and Chris Jordan are all capable of producing devastating blitzes at the death. However, the collapse in South Africa in which the last five matches on tour and six of the last eight were all lost illustrates the fragility of the side and why it is just a likely that they come away red-faced as it is that they make the Final. A good New Zealand side was beaten in the warm-up match, with Moeen and Adil Rashid wresting control, but only a few weeks earlier they were well-beaten by the same South African team that will be England’s second opponents here. To be sure of qualifying, England must beat Afghanistan, plus two of West Indies, South Africa and Sri Lanka.

With just 10 points in the ICC T20 table separating New Zealand in 2^nd and Sri Lanka in 8^th, in theory the field is wide open. With the matches being played in India, even Bangladesh, the lowest ranked of the participating teams, should not be discounted. One brilliant innings or an inspired over may be the difference between a side reaching the semi-Finals and being eliminated: once in the semi-Finals, you only need to win two games and so anything can happen. One thing is certain, whoever wins, perfect 20-20 hindsight will make their victory have been inevitable to all.