England v Bangladesh: ODI Defeat Provides a Warning

 

England v Bangladesh

ODI Defeat Provides a Warning

October 10^th  2016

 Having scrapped and scraped to a remarkable win in the 1^st ODI on Friday, defeat in the 2^nd ODI gives due warning of England’s task. No longer can a side appear in Chittagong or Dhaka with a 2^nd XI and expect to win without breaking sweat.

In the last two years Bangladesh have only played eight home Tests – security concerns, the fact that Bangladesh tours are not marketable and a general indifference to touring the country have assured that – but those eight Tests have come over four series against Zimbabwe, India, Pakistan and South Africa. Just one of those series has been lost. The overall balance is W3 L1 D4 respectable, even if we take into account that the three wins were the Tests against Zimbabwe and the two South Africa Tests were largely washed-out, although with Bangladesh in a good position to push for the win in the 1^st Test. Bangladesh are no longer easy pickings to improve averages and recover lost form. The solitary defeat was against Pakistan, albeit a very heavy one.

In ODIs Bangladesh’s form has been even better. Twenty-two home ODIs over the last two years have brought a balance of W18 L4. Series won against Zimbabwe (two whitewashes), Pakistan (whitewash), India (2-1), South Africa (2-1), Afghanistan (2-1) and now England (1-1, with one to play).

From being treated as somewhat of a joke in cricket circles, Bangladesh are now beginning to become formidable opponents at home. That formidable that while they do not win many matches yet, they can now reasonably aspire to draw a large fraction of home Tests, which is the essential preliminary to starting to win.

Winning is still the major issue. Bangladesh’s overall Test record is P93, W7, L71, D15, with five of the seven wins against Zimbabwe and the other two against what was not much more than a West Indian 3^rd XI in 2009. However, since the start of 2013, Bangladesh’s home record is definitely respectable in so far as avoiding defeat is concerned:

	Played	Won	Lost	Drawn	% Defeats
Overall	51	4	35	12	69%
Before 2013	39	1	33	5	85%
Since 2013	12	3	2	7	17%

Those twelve Tests cover the series previously mentioned, plus Tests against New Zealand and Sri Lanka. It all amounts to a warning that England’s 100% record against Bangladesh – played 8, won 8 – will be under serious threat and, were the worst to happen and the 1st Test be lost, chances are that the series would be lost too. In those eight Tests over four series since 2003, the narrowest margin of victory has been by 7 wickets in the very first match.

It also suggests that it is time to re-consider the policy of resting players for tours of Bangladesh. There was a time when England could play simultaneous series in the Caribbean and New Zealand, win both at a canter and still leave a number of their best players at home: those days though are now long gone. If you do not pick your best XI you are not going to expect to win: you may not win even if you do take all your best players.

In the past, England have tried players such as Martin Saggers, Rikki Clarke and Ajmal Shahzad (6 Tests between them, 4 of them against Bangladesh) in these series. In part it has been to rest players, in part to blood plausible reserves. As Bangladesh get stronger, using them to test reserves gets to be increasingly productive in that it becomes a real test of a player’s capacity to perform at this level. It is also a real dress rehearsal for the tour of India that follows. In that sense, taking players like Gareth Batty who seem unlikely to be part of future plans is less re-assuring than taking someone like Leach or Rayner.

The reasoning seems to be that, with very little cricket outside the internationals, England want to have a player like Batty on hand who could play at a moment’s notice if someone gets injured on the morning of a game. However, they are also carrying Sam Billings and Liam Dawson in the ODI squad when both seem increasingly unlikely to play at all on the tour. While the former has a good List A record, the latter has had a modest season, but has an even more modest First Class and List A record. England believe that Liam Dawson is their best bet for the future and that simply being around the squad will help his development, but he is running out of time to make a breakthrough as the spin cupboard is no longer so bare as it seemed, with the emergence of Leach at Somerset and Mason Crane at Hampshire, both of whom have taken advantage of the new Toss rule producing more spin-friendly surfaces. It is still too early for Crane and Leach has to avoid “second season syndrome”, but it is hard to avoid wondering if they are the future now and not Dawson.

What is alarming in this ODI series and, most likely in the Tests that follow, is the lack of options for England. It is not their fault that they have lost Mark Wood, Jimmy Anderson and Liam Plunkett from the squads due to injury and Alex Hales and Eoin Morgan withdrawing for security reasons but, with Joe Root rested too, it is hard to see what changes England can make.

In both matches the top-order batting has failed and the bowling has, at times, struggled to take wickets. James Vince has lost his Test place, but has now been promoted to open with Jason Roy and continues to struggle to convert starts into scores. David Willey was good with the new ball in the 2^nd ODI, but has yet to take a wicket in the two ODIs and was expensive in the warm-up. Moeen Ali was better with the ball in the 2^nd ODI, but was expensive in the 1^st and has just 10 runs and figures of 0-101 in the two matches. In contrast, despite some erratic bowling and taking some punishment, Adil Rashid has managed combined figures of 6-102 and his calm knock of 33* took England close to inducing the sort of panic in the Bangladesh side that lost them the 1^st ODI when it seemed easier to win.

One would hope that Steve Finn will get a game, possibly replacing Willey: it is great to have a #10 with multiple First Class centuries but, if like yesterday, you are depending on him to score runs, it is because the rest of the batting has failed anyway. The bowling attack has had to work hard in tough conditions and some fresh legs will be welcome. The alternative is to promote the exhausted Jake Ball to taking the new ball and to play another spinner (Dawson? Who would be playing only his second ODI, after some rough treatment in his first [2-70]). It would be a risky strategy if Moeen and Adil Rashid are leaking runs. It would also put an even larger load on Jake Ball. What about James Vince? Do England persist with him, or do they go to Plan B and promote Moeen Ali to open [he has already done it in Asia with some success]? Presumably, Sam Billings would come in for Vince.

England took a pragmatic approach for the 2^nd ODI and repeated the same side that had somehow engineered a Houdini-like win in the 1^st but, the problems that were so evident in the first match are still there.

·         Wicket taking

Of the 16 wickets taken by England in the two ODIs, 13 have been taken by Jake Ball and Adil Rashid. In the first ODI Bangladesh were scoring at around 6-an-over in some comfort for the first 25 overs. In the second, from 169-7 and scoring at barely 4-an-over, they were allowed to push a total that should have been only around 200 up to a much more challenging 238.

The momentum, so much with England until then, moved straight back and when a couple of early wickets fell, Bangladesh were unstoppable.

·         The top order. 63-3 in the 13^th over in the 1^st ODI. 26-4 in the 10^th over in the 2^nd ODI.

James Vince is struggling in his role as stand-in for Alex Hales. His place was sealed with a decent 48 in the warm-up (although, again, unable to pass 50), he has followed it with 16 and 5 in a show of decreasing returns. Jason Roy, who has been so devastating in partnership with Alex Hales over the last year, does not look the same player with Vince at the other end. Might the attacking instincts of Moeen Ali not be a better foil? When the two openers fall cheaply, it puts great pressure on the middle order, especially in an ODI when overs are running out and you have to both accelerate and conserve wickets. So far, Jos Buttler has come off both times, but you cannot rely on him and Ben Stokes to rescue the innings in every game.

·         The spinners are being attacked. This can be both good and bad. In the 1^st ODI Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali went for 27 and 26 respectively from their first 4 overs. Adil Rashid took revenge by taking wickets when the batsmen continued to attack, but it is not ideal to see the scoring accelerate suddenly as soon as the spinners come on, even if they can peg it back later, as it means losing any control that the opening attack has given. Particularly in low-scoring matches, the change of momentum can be critical.

With a Test series coming that offers the real possibility of embarrassment ahead of the tour of India, winning this ODI series assumes a much greater importance. England need to take momentum to India. This means making the right calls now and having to be ruthless.