1st Test, Days 2 and 3: England Set to Win Despite Their Limitations

 

England Set to Win Despite Their Limitations

July 8^th 2017

Barring a miraculous revival from South Africa, Joe Root will start his captaincy career with a win. It is not completely impossible that the win will come on the fourth day. However, more than a reflection of how good England have been, what looks like being a thumping win looks more a reflection of how poor some of South Africa’s decisions and executions have been.

The 1^st Test is turning more into the battle of DRS than a cricket match. South Africa have come off second best almost every time that DRS has come into the picture (Keaton Jennings will wonder why he had to be the exception) and, when they have not been second best, they have been third best behind England and the umpires.

On Day 1, DRS revealed that two dismissals had come from No Balls. On Day 2 they would have dismissed Stuart Broad cheaply and probably ended the England innings quickly if they had used DRS. Instead, he blasted away for a fifty that took the game away from South Africa. On Day 3, while England made a clever and successful review despite Liam Dawson – who has looked somewhat unready for Test cricket – failing even to appeal for an LBW that was found to be plumb, South Africa blew both their reviews within 10 overs when England batted again.

That is not to say that Joe Root has always out-thought Dean Elgar. He has tended not to show sufficient faith in Moeen Ali, who has ended up being his most potent weapon, bowling Liam Dawson ahead of him on both Day 2 and Day 3. At times the attack looked far too toothless and the situation was allowed to drift. As the last two South African wickets edged them ever-closer to parity, Moeen was kept mostly out of the attack. He got just two overs as South Africa went from a decidedly wobbly 248-7 to a much healthier 361-9. During this period, the bowlers leaked runs to the tune of 113 in 24 overs and Mark Wood looked innocuous, before Moeen finally came back and ended the fun with a wicket-maiden in his first over back from exile in the outfield.

The England lead should have been around 150. As it was, it dropped under 100 and Graeme Smith, in the commentary box, was purring that if South Africa got to around 50 or 60 behind they would be right back in the game. The danger was that England would set out to attack with a lead of only 50, lose quick wickets and end up 30-4. Instead, England chose the more sadistic, more pragmatic approach. Knowing that South Africa were a bowler short and, with only three front-line bowlers, short on options and also that the bowlers had had a heavy first innings load – the lightest-used of the South African attack, Philander, bowled as many overs as the most heavily-used of the England attack – the South Africans were slowly ground down. In a compressed series, grinding-down and exhausting the opposition bowlers is part and parcel of the business. England are also wearing the pitch. The odd ball is already misbehaving: by Day 5 batting could well become really tricky.

216 ahead, with a lot of forcing batting to some, England can expect to declare around 400 ahead, after around 50 overs tomorrow, challenging South Africa to survive 130 overs to draw.

South Africa have only ever chased 300 to win twice, both times against Australia: in 2002 in Durban and in 2008 in Perth. They have batted out 130 overs to draw a match just 4 times. The chances are that unless someone can make a big hundred South Africa will lose.

A telling fact is that four South African batsmen passed 50, but not one reached 60. Four England batsmen passed 50 and, of them, Moeen made 87 and Root, 190. Five of the six highest scores in the match so far have been by England batsmen and that is killing the South African challenge.

Ps: South Africa’s record batting more than 100 overs (or its equivalent) in the fourth innings of a Test match has brought:

14 defeats, 8 draws & just 4 wins.