Ashes 2017/18: 1st Test, Day 3 - In the Balance

Ashes 2017/18: 1^st Test, Day 3

In the Balance

November 25^th 2017

Three days of play and the match situation is a one-innings pressure match with 98 overs for each side. Day 3 has given the first hints of Australia waking-up and realising that if they are going to talk the talk, they have to walk the walk to back it up. For two and a half days they seemed to think that a bit of chat and England would lie down and play its assigned role of doormat.

After two, quite even days, both probably slightly England’s way, we have had an old-fashioned day when suddenly the match appears to have tipped Australia’s way.

England are still in the game but the stakes have been raised. Australia have raised their game and now England need to see them and raise them still further. Put bluntly, the fate of the Test rests on Stoneman and Root getting through the early overs tomorrow and blunting Cummins and Starc, before taking advantage of tiring bowlers and an older ball to set a target. Get through the first hour and things will start to get easier. Lose two wickets in the first hour and the game may not make it into a fifth day.

What will encourage Australia is that, faced with a pace barrage, England wilted. Suddenly the bowlers were much quicker than on Day 1. The pitch encouraged them a little more and they responded – although one would ask how much this barrage will have taken out of them after a heavy first innings load – and England looked very vulnerable. Cook’s mind looks to be elsewhere right now. James Vince could not repeat his first innings heroics. And Joe Root has already worn one massive blow on the helmet.

We are at the crucial moment of the Test and the series. Australia think that if they beat England down now, the series is won. England have already made a statement, but they need to follow it up by showing that they can go face-to-face and not be cowed. If England continue to put down a marker, this series could turn out to be the best since 2005.

Estimates of what England need vary widely. There are suggestions that Australia will not want to chase more than 240, although one suspects that they would be delighted to chase such a small target.

For England much will depend on the resolution of the Anderson mystery: why did he not bowl after Lunch? Is he injured? Without Anderson to take the new ball, Australia would fancy chasing 300+.

There are questions over the fitness of Jake Ball. He bowled only 18 overs and was by far the most expensive of the bowlers. Has the decision to pick him ahead of Overton been a mistake? Ball’s Test record of 3 wickets at an average of over 100 is hardly a strong case for selection. After such excellent performances in the warm-ups, the performance of Chris Woakes has been disappointing: he has shown nowhere near the threat of Broad and Anderson.

However, in last three Ashes series in Australia, by this stage of the Gabba Test England have been facing a massive defeat: the mere fact that they are still in the contest is a victory of sorts.  

Match position after 3 days of the Gabba Test:

·       2013/14: Australia 295 & 401-7d, England 136 & 25-2. Lost.

·       2010/11: England 260 & 19-0, Australia 481. Drawn.

·       2006/07: Australia 602-9d & 182-1, England 157. Lost.

·       2002/03: Australia 492 & 111-2, England 325. Lost.

·       1998/99: Australia 485, England 299-4. Drawn.

·       1994/95: Australia 426 & 194-7, England 167. Lost.

·       1990/91: England 194 & 114, Australia 152 & 157-0 (End of match). Lost.

• 1986/87: England 456, Australia 248 & 2-0. Won.