Wednesday, 22 November 2017

Ashes 2017/18: 1st Test Preview, Trash-talking at its Worst


 

Ashes 2017/18: 1st Test Preview

Trash-talking at its Worst

November 22nd 2017

What went on before the 2013/14 Ashes was pretty unpleasant. By all accounts, even some of the Australians felt embarrassed later by the crudity and ugliness of some of the talk. The 2017/18 Ashes though have sunk to a new low. It has shades of the sort of badly-scripted trash-talking before a boxing match. It is even beginning to look more a desperate attempt to reassure themselves that they are as good as they claim to be than any serious attempt to intimidate England: yes, you are scared facing your own bowlers in the nets, but what will it do to the confidence of your own, questioned batsmen if they have their confidence thoroughly shaken as is supposedly happening? One suspects that Stuart Broad, who picked up 21 wickets at 27.5 in 2013/14 as all fall apart around him (and 22 at 27.5 in 2013 summer series), will have pricked up his ears at that piece of intelligence
The Australians go into this series knowing that when the England squad was picked, back in September, even many English pundits thought that it had no hope of being competitive. When Ben Stokes then ruled himself out of selection by coming to the aid of two young men who were suffering a late-night homophobic attack in Bristol, what merely seemed an impossible task just got a lot bigger. England though have got on with what they came out to do: prepare, get ready for the big day and arrive with everyone is some kind of form. When no one gives you a prayer, it can even be liberating.

The best news for England is that two of the marginal picks – Stoneman and Malan – are both in excellent batting form… at least so far. In eight innings so far, between them they sum 2x100 and 5x50: only a single-figure score for Malan in the second innings at Adelaide has spoilt a perfect run of 50+ scores. Of course, scores against weak attacks on flat pitches in low-intensity games in empty stadia are no guarantee of runs at the Gabba when a crowd of 40000 and five slips are all squawking at you, but you can only score against what is put against you.
England can do no more than point out that all their top eight for the Test, bar Moeen, who has only had a single innings and Woakes, have posted at least one fifty. Woakes and Anderson have looked very good with the ball but, there the good news ends.

Of the attack to take the field tonight, Broad’s form has been scratchy, Ball has only bowled 15.4 overs due to injury, most of them in the opening non-First Class first fixture and Moeen has only bowled half the overs of the not-selected Mason Crane. While, of the batsmen, Cook and Bairstow have had modest starts with the bat and Moeen, who will bat at #6 has faced just 22 balls. James Vince, who bats at #3, has done what James Vince does: with 170 runs, only Stoneman and Malan have more so far on tour but, scores of 82, 33, 29 & 26 reveal the constant Vince problem of getting starts and then getting out. So far in his 11 Test innings, Vince has got into double figures 7 times and past 30 on 4 occasions, yet his top score remains just 42.
It has all the elements of a train wreck. If Australia bat first you can imagine the score being 300-2 late on the first day, with an England attack that is not fully match fit, fading by moments.

However, there is another reality. When the Australian side was selected it was roundly condemned by the Australian media. There have been surprise recalls for Paine and Marsh. Cameron Bancroft, who has managed just one century in two seasons for Gloucestershire is the great white hope of the batting and the rest of the side is a mixture of tried and tested and players who have been in and out of the side. There is no doubt that the batting is vulnerable and that if England bowl well, take their chances and use the conditions, they could easily run through the top order. However, they know just as well that if David Warner or Steve Smith is dropped on 0, it could turn into an awfully costly mistake.
In 2013, the basis of the attack was to have Mitch Johnson backed up by Ryan Harris. The figures prove that Johnson was less than half the bowler without Harris at the other end and, in 2013/14, England was unfortunate to come up against both of them fit and purring at the same time. This time England have to face Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood. There is no all-rounder. Mitch Marsh is not fit to bowl and, should Cummins, whose injury record makes Mark Wood look indestructible, pick up an injury early, they will be very exposed indeed: the back-up to Cummins and Starc is very thin.

The way to win is for England to see off the new ball and to make Cummins come back for third and fourth spells. It was the theory with Mitch Johnson in 2013/14 too. In that series Mitch Johnson averaged fewer than 19 overs per innings: if Cummins can be made to bowl 25, or even 30 overs per innings in the first two Tests, his pace is going to drop like a stone, as well as his chances of making it through five Tests uninjured. So, the England top 5 have to sell their wickets dearly and if they can neutralise Lyon, who will have to bowl a lot of overs to rest Cummins and Starc, they could just pose Steve Smith some real problems. In contrast, if England are consistently losing 3 or 4 wickets to the new ball, Smith will have the easiest job in the world.
England, to their credit, have not got involved in the trash talk. They know that there is one way to answer it and that is by performing on the field.

There is a lot of expectation that Australia will win 5-0 and that means pressure. If they cannot back up their talk with performances, that pressure will ratchet-up rapidly.
Australia should win, but a decent start by England – a draw, or even a win at the Gabba – and things might so easily go as horribly wrong for Australia as they did for England in 2013. Whatever they do, England must not fold on the first day, as they did in 2013 and, previously, in 2003 and 2007 (and on other occasions): if they do, nothing will turn the tide and Joe Root will look more like King Canute than he does Moses, parting the Australian waves.

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