History Suggests That A Successful Fourth Innings Chase Of 300+ Is Very Unlikely

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

How Rare is a Successful Test Fourth Innings Chase?

 

June 18^th 2014

 

 

It is often pointed out that a side chasing 300+ successfully in the fourth innings is a rare event in Test cricket. It is also a relatively modern phenomenon: with the exception of the extraordinary chase by the 1948 Australians and a couple of cases from the early 20^th Century.

There have been 27 successful 4^th innings chases of 300+ in Tests. 11 of them have been since the year 2000 and 17 since 1990, making it appear, at first sight, that such cases are now much more common, which they are, but so much more Test cricket is played that the reason may simply be this.

The first side to chase 300+ successfully were Australia, in Adelaide, in 1902 (Test #67). It did not happen again until England returned the favour at Melbourne in 1928 (Test #178) and then again, in Test #302 – the extraordinary Headingley Test in 1948. It then happened in Test #320 (Australia v South Africa, in 1950) and Test #452 (West Indies v Pakistan, in 1958), but then not again until 1976, when India set a new record 4^th innings chase against the West Indies of 406-4 in Test #775.

All in all, chases of 300+ happened 8 times in the first 822 Tests up to the 3^rd Test of the 1978 Australian tour of the West Indies (as an anecdote, a Packerless Australia managed the feat against a full-strength India  in 1977 and a strong, although not full strength West Indies side in 1978).

We can thus say that up to 1978, a successful 300+ chase happened only every 100 Tests approximately.

Since 1978, there have been 19 further instances of successful chases of 300+ in the 4^th innings, the last by Pakistan in Sharjah in January, when they chased down 302-5 in just over 57 overs. The last completed Test – England v Sri Lanka at Lords – was Test #2124 so, the last 19 successful chases of 300+ have come in 1302 Tests, equivalent to one every 69 Tests. So, it does seem that the feat is becoming more frequent and, with the huge increase in the amount of Test cricket played, is a much more common event.

There is though, another factor to consider. Frequently, although there is a nominal target of 300 to win in the 4^th innings, it is due to the side batting third batting out most of the last day to save a match and not having time to set a realistic target so, although there is a nominal chase, there was never any prospect of a result.

Given that only once has a side chased down more than 300 at better than 5-an-over in the 4^th innings to win a Test, you can assume safely that any target of 300+ in less than 55 overs was a token declaration and so the chase, as such, never existed. How often then, using this criterion,have there been realistic chases of 300+ in the 4^th innings in 2124 Test matches?

The result is quite surprising.

A 4^th innings target of 300+ in which at least at least 55 overs overs have been bowled, has been set 473 times in 2124 Tests (22.3%), giving:

27 wins (5.7%)

1 tie (0.2%)

154 draws (32.6%)

291 defeats (61.5%)

Truly, chasing 300+ successfully in the fourth innings is a very big achievement for any side. Only about one in every eighteen attempts, has the chase been successful and, historically, six times out of ten the chasing side has lost.

One Of The Greatest Ever Test Finishes

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Ninety Overs Not Quite Enough

 

June 17^th 2014

 

The cooler heads were saying last night that 350 would be more than enough and that England needed a few overs before the Close on the fourth day, were proved right. Although the Sri Lankan fans were bullish and some confidently predicted that their side would have a comfortable chase after Tea, the reality was that sustaining a run rate far above what they had achieved in the 1^st innings with batting conditions the at their best, was never a plausible proposition. The way that Sri Lanka had collapsed in their 1^st innings from 385-4 to 453ao was warning enough.

In the 2^nd innings the collapse was even more dramatic. At 123-1 Sri Lankan fans were licking their lips at the prospect of a record chase. At 201-9, surviving the last over was the limit of their ambitions and even then only achieved, first with DRS and then with luck. Eight wickets for 78 was a pretty devastating collapse on a pitch that still offered the bowlers very little, even more so when Tea was reached on 164-3 with Sangakkara well set and the RRR still under 5.

The end of the match must go down as one of the most dramatic ever. Edgbaston 2005 was extraordinary and controversial, this was  unbelievably more dramatic still. After a clatter of wickets either side of Tea, a twenty over partnership between captain Matthews and the injured wicket-keeper Jayawardene had taken Sri Lanka to the brink of safety. Twenty-four were added in twenty overs and one ball until, with the last ball of the 79^th over, Chris Jordan lived up to his reputation for making things happen. Before that delivery, which thudded into Jayawardene’s pads, just 67 balls remained to take five wickets: it all looked over. However, England’s confidence that the flimsy Sri Lankan tail could be blown away, even on an easy pitch, was more than justified.

67 balls to go – Jordan traps HAPW Jayawardene LBW. Last review used in vain. 194-6.

58 balls to go – Jordan takes the new ball. 198-6

42 balls to go – Broad gets Kulasekara LBW. 199-7.

19 balls to go – Matthews edges Anderson to Cook. 201-8.

6 balls to go – Herath edges a Broad bouncer and walks. Replays show that the hand was off the bat and so it was not out. 201-9.

2 balls to go – Umpire Reiffel gives Pradeep LBW to Broad. Review. Inside edge. NOT OUT!

1 ball to go – Pradeep edges to Jordan at 2^nd slip. Ball bounced just short. 201-9.

Quite apart from being a vindication of DRS – no one would have wanted England to win thanks to a bad umpiring decision – it was also the first time that the rule change topping-up reviews at 80 overs has changed a match result. Had Sri Lanka not topped-up their reviews, the decision would have to have stood.

For England, who have taken a fair bit of criticism in this Test, it was vindication.

For Sri Lanka, the alarm bells are ringing. The 2^nd Test is being played at Headingley, starting Friday. If Sri Lanka could only hang on in extremis on the deadest and most lifeless of Lords pitches, what chances do they have on a Headingley pitch known over the years for its friendliness to seam bowlers? To boot, they have lost their wicket keeper – although Jayawardene batted heroically yesterday and almost saved his side, he is being sent home as he is unable to keep wicket.

Although there was a point after lunch when Sri Lanka were in touch with the asking rate and had wickets in hand, it was always going to be too much. The RRR was rising steadily from its initial 4.33. With 55 overs to go it had passed 5 and was increasing faster as England kept a vice-like pressure on the scoring rate: if wickets started to fall, any remote thoughts of a run chase would disappear, as people were predicting confidently they would. By Tea the RRR was around 7 and half an hour after Tea was approaching 9 – it was never on.

Only twice in Test history had a side chased successfully a 4^th innings target of over 300 at a faster run rate than the asking rate for Sri Lanka: the 1984 West Indies had done it at Lords and Pakistan had scored 302-5 at Sharjah in January 2014 in 57.3 overs to beat Sri Lanka. Only four times has a side chased 300+ successfully at more than 4-an-over: these things rarely happen in other than Fantasy cricket, so it was always going to be a simple case of whether or not Sri Lanka could survive 90 overs.

England fans will always ask what might have been had the bowlers had an extra 5 overs. Possibly no wickets would have fallen on the fourth evening but, even if they had not, the Sri Lankan tail would have had to survive fifteen overs with the new ball rather than ten. We will never know how it might have changed the match.

It Is England's Match To Win

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Safety-first Cook May Have Killed the Game

 

June 16^th 2014

 

The facts: Sri Lanka have only once chased 350+ successfully in the 4^th innings of a Test. That was in 2006, at home against South Africa. In fact, only eight sides have ever chased down 350+ to win a Test. Sri Lanka have only ever chased 300+ successfully twice, both times at home: the 352-9 against South Africa and 326-5 against Zimbabwe in 1998.

Sri Lanka’s largest ever successful chase in an away Test was 220-8 against Pakistan in 2000, followed by 163-2 against Bangladesh in 2006.

There is nothing in Sri Lanka’s record to support the affirmation by some of their fans on CricInfo that they would have no problems in chasing down 360 in around 60 overs. Unless a target is clearly an easy one, or the risk of defeat is minimal, the approach is usually safety first; sides rarely make much effort to chase anything over 200 at 5-an-over (a rare exception being England’s near miss at The Oval last summer).

Only once has more than 300 been chased successfully at Lords and that was in 1984 when England went off for bad light in the evening, when on top and then batted on, briefly and disastrously next morning, handing over the initiative to the West Indies. A Greenidge 200 later, the West Indies had rushed to 344-1 and what should have been an impossible victory was achieved with some comfort (it was this result that ensured that the 5-0 Blackwash would happen).

Once England’s lead reached 330, the likelihood of Sri Lanka chasing successfully was minimal, especially as the ideal atmospheric conditions for batting of the first three days have been replaced by something more typically English. The situation was made for a short burst at the Sri Lankan batsmen before the Close, with Liam Plunkett being told to go flat out for 2 or 3 overs and try to unsettle the openers. At one point, with Broad and Ballance were hammering the ball to all parts, the lead was 370 and surely the declaration was coming with the England players crowding the balcony? Not a bit of it!

It may be that Alistair Cook decided that letting Gary Ballance get his century was worth losing the chance of a few overs with the new ball before the Close and that his bowlers would do better to get a rest overnight before making a final effort in the morning. If so, fair does to him. Possibly he had decided that if Ballance fell, he would declare – we may never know. However, it would have been nice to see an aggressive declaration as a statement of intent.

Certainly, batting has got more difficult. After the first 14 wickets in the match garnered 864 runs, the next 14 have put on just 335 and that it was that many, was only thanks to a big England recovery from the depths of 121-6. Sri Lanka’s last 6 wickets added just 68 runs from their high-water point of 385-4. Everything suggested that some aggressive captaincy would be rewarded.

England may yet force a win on the last day, especially as the overhead conditions are now a lot less friendly and the pitch is not as easy as it was. It may prove to have been a good move to give the new ball bowlers night’s rest before they come out and try to take 10 wickets in 90 overs (although, given the prevailing over rate, 85 may be more like it). However, the delayed declaration also means that the new ball will only become available shortly before the Close, when it may well be too late to help England’s cause.

Ballance’s century in only his second Test saved England from a possible defeat that seemed impossible in the morning. To reach it with a six was a pretty big statement on his part. And, after the top order had been blown away, he received solid support from Jordan and Broad, adding 78 with the former and 57 with the latter to set up a position from which only England can win. Tail-end runs often sap the resistance of the opposition: could the dashing of Sri Lanka’s hopes of an amazing turnaround turn out to be a killer blow? It would not be the first time that a side batting last sees itself collapse after watching the tail remove all hope of a victory that, a few hours earlier, was in touching distance.

Logic suggests that Alistair Cook will wait as late as possible before the start of play to declare, just to keep the Sri Lankan openers guessing, hoping that he will be daft enough bat on, before unleashing Broad and Anderson at them. Sri Lanka should save the Test but, knowing that victory is out of the question, there is just a chance that they could lose a few wickets and start to get nervous. Liam Plunkett needs to keep the ball pitched up, unleashing his 95mph thunderbolts and using the short ball sparingly. If he does it successfully, he could be the key man, taking wickets both for himself and for the bowler at the other end.

Whatever happens, we have seen enough from Ballance, Moeen, Jordan and Plunkett to feel optimistic about the future. The one of the new boys to miss out has been Sam Robson. Given the lack of patience that England have shown recently with Compton, Root and Carberry as openers, Sam Robson will have been disappointed to have got in and got out today – one hopes that he will be given the full summer to bed in, but two failures in the 2^nd Test would heap the pressure on him and lead to calls for yet another change. It is one crisis that England would prefer to avoid.

It is not beside the point that none other than Geoff Boycott is already suggesting that Sam Robson’s place is in jeopardy and that the fans are asking why he was selected in the first place. We tend to forget that, less than a year ago, Australia changed its qualification rules in the hope of attracting Sam Robson back to the Australian fold and not a few people suggested that Australia had picked the wrong MIddlesex opener last summer. People are talking about Robson’s vulnerability outside off stump; in fact, exactly the same criticism that was made initially of Chris Rogers, who ended up coming good after a slowish start (16, 52, 15, 6 last summer).

Tired Bowlers Hold The Key In A Final Day Push For An Unlikely Win

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Late Strikes Turn the Match on its Head

 

June 15^th 2014

 

For a good part of the day a nightmare scenario was possible in which Sri Lanka managed a lead of 150 and then put England under pressure on a last day pitch. At 277-2 and 385-4, a Sri Lanka lead was looking like a real possibility. The fans were on England’s case and some of the comments about the Sri Lankan attack were being thrown back with interest.

However, the critics missed one key point. While England had barrelled along at a tremendous 4.4 per over, Sri Lanka were a full run per over slower. The England attack was keeping things tight and never letting the batsmen get away. It had two results. One was that even if Sangakkara or Jayawardene had gone on to a big double century, it would have taken a long time to build a lead. The second was that it left Sri Lanka vulnerable to a counterattack, which duly came after Tea. Wickets for Moeen Ali (who has had a very good match), Chris Jordan and Liam Plunkett (whose fastest ball was quicker than anything delivered by Mitch Johnson last winter) has left Sri Lanka 160 behind with little batting to come.

After his late wicket Plunkett built up a fearsome head of pace on a featherbed, ramping up to almost 95mph in an impressive final charge when he already had 30 overs in his legs. Jordan and Anderson both passed 90mph, although were mid-80s by the end. You feel that if Plunkett gets a responsive wicket in this short series or against India, he could cause some real mayhem.

The match situation is such that if England can knock over the last three wickets before lunch, they would have a chance to build on their lead today and declare, allowing the bowlers to have a shot at inducing a final day panic. The runs/time equation is critical. If Sri Lanka reach lunch, they will probably be only 70-80 behind with 5 sessions left. England would have to go at 5 an over for the last two sessions of the day to set a reasonable declaration target for the last day – not too many sides manage that in a Test (people insist on talking about T20 run rates in Tests when there are no fielding restrictions or limit on the bowlers, but it almost never happens). If the last three wickets were to go down in an hour, Sri Lanka would be 120-130 behind with some 75 overs left and that would offer real options to set something up, preferably giving Sri Lanka an hour to bat tonight.

A second factor is the bowlers. They have bowled 120 overs already in this innings. The less rest that they get, the less likely it will be that they can come out and make another huge effort on the final day. Plunkett has bowled 30 overs. Jordan, 27. Broad and Anderson, 24 each. Even Moeen Ali has bowled 16. People have talked about a lack of variation in the attack with 4 seamers: imagine if Plunkett’s overs had had to be shared out between Jordan, Broad and Anderson? They would have been driven into the ground.

It can only be in England that you load the attack with pace and then produce a featherbed pitch that, if it helps anyone on the last day, will help the opposition with their spin attack!

It all adds up to the fact that, although an England win is not impossible, they will need a lot of rub of the green to make it happen, starting with the last three Sri Lankan wickets falling quickly and passing through someone producing a big innings in quick time when England bat again.

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Good, but misleading?

 

June 14^th 2014

 
 

You would normally accept 575-9d from 22-2. Bell, Moeen Ali and Prior made good runs. Joe Root made a superb double century. Broad, Plunkett and, more briefly, Jordan hammered runs at around a run a ball, with Broad briefly having the fastest ever 50 in Tests in his sights. Even Jimmy Anderson hung around to help Root to his double century. It looked pretty good.

That said, the bowling was friendly (and even then, several batsmen succumbed to short balls) and the life that the pitch had had for an hour on the first morning had gone. It was not like facing Mitch and the Rhino at the Gabba. However, it was a start. Batsmen have to make runs against what is thrown at them and if it is easy pickings, still have to take advantage (remember how the Australians said that they would end Scott Borthwick’s career at Sydney, but he ended up taking four cheap wickets instead as batsmen played him on reputation rather than on merit?)

It was good to see Plunkett, Jordan and Broad show that if they get the chance against tired bowlers they are capable of scoring quick runs and turning a useful score into a good one. Good sides destroy average ones by doing this.

However, when Sri Lanka batted suddenly the England batting looked less special. There was an LBW that was overturned on review. There was a catch behind that may or may not have been fair (when it goes to the TV umpire you know that the foreshortened telefocal shots will always cast doubt on whether or not the ball has carried). Chris Jordan came on to bowl and took a wicket third ball. Liam Plunkett comfortably passed 90mph and was hostile, but the long and short of it is that Sri Lanka reached 140-1 by the Close.

It is not impossible that they could pass England’s total comfortably and leave the hosts to bat to avoid defeat on a pitch starting to deteriorate on the last day.

Were that to happen, the laughter would resonate around the world.

England are still a long way ahead and it would only take a couple of quick wickets in the morning to turn the match situation on its head. Even so, when a Sri Lankan fans posted on CricInfo that he could see triple hundreds coming for both Sangakarra and Jayawardene, he was just expressing a view that Sri Lanka have the batting to win this match still – incredible as it may seem – on a pitch looking more and more like a bowlers’ graveyard. England need to dig deep today to wrest back some control.

So Far, So Good

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

A Stuttering Start

 

June 13^th 2014

 

 
Despite the hype about this being an utterly unpredictable squad, the only surprise in the twelve was Woakes and it was no surprise whatsoever that he was made twelfth man. With an attack of Anderson, Broad, Plunkett and Jordan, the selectors are betting that the Sri Lankan batsmen will not enjoy being bombarded with short balls. It is though a decision that could just backfire of the pitch starts to spin seriously later. At 22-2, with England’s batsmen struggling to cope with a moving ball on a greenish pitch, you wondered what the England pace barrage might have done to the Sri Lankans. It was an awful start and one Sam Robson will want to forget.

From there on, things got steadily better. Bell and Ballance put on 52 together and looked to be righting the ship before Ballance went. Bell and Root added 46. Both times a bubble of the hope that this time things would be different, familiar to England fans in recent months, was forming. Both times it popped prematurely. However, the trend was clearly ascendant. Moeen Ali was not a unanimous pick by any stretch of the imagination on the part of the fans, but he seems to have the sort of enduring personality and sense of fun about him that made Monty Panesar such a popular cricketer in his early years. He also has confidence… you don’t slog sweep the spinner for six at Lords in your debut without it. There are plenty of players who have had a good debut Test and have never again been successful, but Moeen Ali looks as if he could turn into the real deal.

The day also showed just how much your fortunes can change if you get a little bit of luck. In Australia, what luck was going always fell on Australia’s side until England were too shattered to be able to take advantage. With England 209-5 at the fall of Moeen Ali, the fall of Matt Prior second ball would have been potentially terminal. He survived a review by millimetres on umpire’s call but, had the original decision been “out”, it would have stood too.

209-6 could well have heralded a total around 240ao: 344-5, with two well set batsmen suggests that 450 is there for the taking. It is a long, long time since England reached 450 in a first innings. With capable batsmen to come in Jordan, Broad and Plunkett (Plunkett has 2x50 this season and a top score of 86, so arguably should be batting above both his fast bowling colleagues), anything less than 450 would be disappointing and 500 should be reachable.

It was noticeable how the Sri Lankan bowlers slowed through the day, despite a funeral over rate. While Kulasekara started in the high 70s (mph) and maintained his pace, Pradeep and Eranga, who both started mid-to-high 80s, were low 80s by the end of the day and fading fast. Even with Herath bowling 22 overs, Sri Lanka were unable to complete their 90 overs by the cut-off time. We were used to sides struggling to bowl 13 overs an hour when the four West Indian quicks of the 1980s were all coming in off 30 and 40 metre run-ups – it did not stop them getting results, although it certainly helped keep the bowlers fresh – but 13 overs an hour from medium pacers and spinners is harder to stomach. If Prior and Root bat on today and threaten to amass a really big total, one suspects that we will look back on 13 overs per hour as having been fast-paced action from a Sri Lankan side who are probably thinking that a draw is the best result that they can hope for.

As the recent New Zealand v West Indies showed, judging the direction of a Test after one day is a fool’s errand. We will not know how much 344-5 is worth until Sri Lanka have batted. If they make 600 and put England under pressure on a turning pitch on the last day all the talk today of a revival of England fortunes will look terribly premature. If, in contrast, England make 500 and dismiss Sri Lanka twice for 200, you can guarantee that it will be dismissed as a meaningless win, even by the majority of England fans. After the last few months, fans are going to take some convincing that the good times are coming back.

Sri Lankan's Sense of Injustice Will Make Them Dangerous

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

A New Era Begins

 

June 12^th 2014

 

 

There is something depressingly appropriate about the start of England’s Test summer being overshadowed by another game, later in the day, which will hold at least hundreds of millions of spectators in thrall. After an at times fractious ODI series, with some serious bad feeling arising on both sides, any thought that England will breeze through another early season series against overmatched opponents should be forgotten. Sri Lanka sense a weakened England are vulnerable and are using the “in your face” tactics that other sides have employed successfully.

After a lot of talk of the Senanayake action, including some pretty damning looking pictures getting wide diffusion, it was inevitable that an umpire would report him. It is not even the first time that he has been reported – it happened in 2011 and he underwent remedial work. However, under the weird and wonderful rules that now apply on throwing, he was allowed to continue bowling, which he did with great success. Strangely though, Sri Lanka had not included him as part of the Test squad which, given England’s problems with his bowling, was probably missing a trick.

Wherever you went in the ODI series, Senanayake was in the eye of a hurricane. Action vilified in the press, with one well-known ex-player being particularly critical, his response was the Mankading of Jos Buttler the day after being reported. It was a robust response and one that suggests that Sri Lanka are trying to feed off the sense of injustice that sides from the sub-continent have often fed successfully into an iron resolve to get revenge on the pitch. Senanayake gave at least one warning and then, with Jos Buttler either in denial or in a dream world somewhere, proceeded to complete the dismissal. Buttler can have no complaints and should feel a prize idiot.

However, there is an undercurrent of something rather nasty swilling around. Angelo Matthews has suggested that Senanayake was targeted by England because they could not play him and that the aim of the report was to get him out of the Sri Lankan team. The fact that the report has to be made by the umpiring team including, for the Lords match, Marais Erasmus (South African) and match referee Jeff Crowe (New Zealand) does not suggest an English plot. This umpiring team was in place all series, with an Englishman, a South African and two New Zealanders in each game. What is more, the rules would always allow Senanayake to play thay the final match of the series and he would not be involved in the Tests so, as a plot to get rid of him, it was totally pointless.

The absence of Senanayake in the ceremony – the only player not to appear post-match at Lords – and the challenging comments made in his defence, suggest a current of ill-feeling, which was a sad end to a rather bizarre ODI series, with two very one-sided wins for each side and a fourth game that went down to the wire.

The ODIs and the T20 (also a narrow win for Sri Lanka) were the aperitif for the Test series. After so much talk about this being the most unpredictable England Test squad for many years, the actual squad announcement was characterised by a total lack of any real surprises: eleven of the twelve names had been widely predicted. The only slight doubts were the name of the extra bowler (Woakes rather than Patel) and whether or not the selectors felt that Matt Prior was ready for a five-day Test – if not, it is widely assumed that James Foster was on standby and he may yet play this summer.

Prior played against Loughborough and in the first Championship match against Middlesex in April and, since then, has only played a single T20 and the latest Championship game against Nottinghamshire. Scores of 43, 0, 125, 39, 30 and 19* suggest that his batting is in decent knick, but he has only taken the gloves for the T20 and the Notts game, so there must be some doubt about his staying power if he needs to field for the best part of two days.

The failures of others had made Sam Robson’s elevation inevitable after a superb winter. His start to the season has been solid, rather than spectacular, with a single First Class century (a big one) plus another in a friendly and 3x50. His season so far has been famine or feast: 11, 1, 163, 41*, 7, 77, 7, 68, 51, 19*, 6, 24, 42*. However, 517 runs at 51.7 is not to be sniffed at, even if it places him only 18^th in the table of run-scorers so far in First Class cricket.

Chris Jordan’s success had made his elevation inevitable. With Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad fit and showing good form and useful part-time spinners available in Root and Moeen Ali, Samit Patel and Scott Borthwick could not force their way in and James Tredwell’s travails meant that he was never a serious option as a specialist spinner.

Liam Plunkett has been getting headlines this season. He has not been destructive – he still does not have a 5-for and his best match figures are only 5-97 – but he has been fast, nasty, aggressive and consistent with 26 wickets at 25.5. The Sri Lankan batsmen have already shown that if there is any life in the pitch at all they just do not fancy facing Chris Jordan one little bit.

It is a safe bet that Chris Woakes (somewhat lucky to be picked given his poor season so far, but still as good an all-round promise as you can get) will be the spare bowler and that will Jimmy Anderson, who has been in vintage form, blocks up an end, the Sri Lankans will face Jordan, Plunkett and Broad running in hard and bowling a lot of short balls at the body.

Lords pitches have not been very lively in recent years. If the Sri Lankan’s find any green at all in the pitch this morning it will do nothing to alleviate their suspicions that they are being victimised. A strong and united team with a grudge will be a dangerous opponent, even though England should be too strong in the end.