Cricket 2014
Safety-first Cook May Have Killed the Game
June 16th 2014
The facts: Sri Lanka have only once chased 350+ successfully in the 4th innings of a Test. That was in 2006, at home against South Africa. In fact, only eight sides have ever chased down 350+ to win a Test. Sri Lanka have only ever chased 300+ successfully twice, both times at home: the 352-9 against South Africa and 326-5 against Zimbabwe in 1998.
Sri Lanka’s largest ever successful chase in an away Test was 220-8 against Pakistan in 2000, followed by 163-2 against Bangladesh in 2006.
There is nothing in Sri Lanka’s record to support the affirmation by some of their fans on CricInfo that they would have no problems in chasing down 360 in around 60 overs. Unless a target is clearly an easy one, or the risk of defeat is minimal, the approach is usually safety first; sides rarely make much effort to chase anything over 200 at 5-an-over (a rare exception being England’s near miss at The Oval last summer).
Only once has more than 300 been chased successfully at Lords and that was in 1984 when England went off for bad light in the evening, when on top and then batted on, briefly and disastrously next morning, handing over the initiative to the West Indies. A Greenidge 200 later, the West Indies had rushed to 344-1 and what should have been an impossible victory was achieved with some comfort (it was this result that ensured that the 5-0 Blackwash would happen).
Once England’s lead reached 330, the likelihood of Sri Lanka chasing successfully was minimal, especially as the ideal atmospheric conditions for batting of the first three days have been replaced by something more typically English. The situation was made for a short burst at the Sri Lankan batsmen before the Close, with Liam Plunkett being told to go flat out for 2 or 3 overs and try to unsettle the openers. At one point, with Broad and Ballance were hammering the ball to all parts, the lead was 370 and surely the declaration was coming with the England players crowding the balcony? Not a bit of it!
It may be that Alistair Cook decided that letting Gary Ballance get his century was worth losing the chance of a few overs with the new ball before the Close and that his bowlers would do better to get a rest overnight before making a final effort in the morning. If so, fair does to him. Possibly he had decided that if Ballance fell, he would declare – we may never know. However, it would have been nice to see an aggressive declaration as a statement of intent.
Certainly, batting has got more difficult. After the first 14 wickets in the match garnered 864 runs, the next 14 have put on just 335 and that it was that many, was only thanks to a big England recovery from the depths of 121-6. Sri Lanka’s last 6 wickets added just 68 runs from their high-water point of 385-4. Everything suggested that some aggressive captaincy would be rewarded.
England may yet force a win on the last day, especially as the overhead conditions are now a lot less friendly and the pitch is not as easy as it was. It may prove to have been a good move to give the new ball bowlers night’s rest before they come out and try to take 10 wickets in 90 overs (although, given the prevailing over rate, 85 may be more like it). However, the delayed declaration also means that the new ball will only become available shortly before the Close, when it may well be too late to help England’s cause.
Ballance’s century in only his second Test saved England from a possible defeat that seemed impossible in the morning. To reach it with a six was a pretty big statement on his part. And, after the top order had been blown away, he received solid support from Jordan and Broad, adding 78 with the former and 57 with the latter to set up a position from which only England can win. Tail-end runs often sap the resistance of the opposition: could the dashing of Sri Lanka’s hopes of an amazing turnaround turn out to be a killer blow? It would not be the first time that a side batting last sees itself collapse after watching the tail remove all hope of a victory that, a few hours earlier, was in touching distance.
Logic suggests that Alistair Cook will wait as late as possible before the start of play to declare, just to keep the Sri Lankan openers guessing, hoping that he will be daft enough bat on, before unleashing Broad and Anderson at them. Sri Lanka should save the Test but, knowing that victory is out of the question, there is just a chance that they could lose a few wickets and start to get nervous. Liam Plunkett needs to keep the ball pitched up, unleashing his 95mph thunderbolts and using the short ball sparingly. If he does it successfully, he could be the key man, taking wickets both for himself and for the bowler at the other end.
Whatever happens, we have seen enough from Ballance, Moeen, Jordan and Plunkett to feel optimistic about the future. The one of the new boys to miss out has been Sam Robson. Given the lack of patience that England have shown recently with Compton, Root and Carberry as openers, Sam Robson will have been disappointed to have got in and got out today – one hopes that he will be given the full summer to bed in, but two failures in the 2nd Test would heap the pressure on him and lead to calls for yet another change. It is one crisis that England would prefer to avoid.
It is not beside the point that none other than Geoff Boycott is already suggesting that Sam Robson’s place is in jeopardy and that the fans are asking why he was selected in the first place. We tend to forget that, less than a year ago, Australia changed its qualification rules in the hope of attracting Sam Robson back to the Australian fold and not a few people suggested that Australia had picked the wrong MIddlesex opener last summer. People are talking about Robson’s vulnerability outside off stump; in fact, exactly the same criticism that was made initially of Chris Rogers, who ended up coming good after a slowish start (16, 52, 15, 6 last summer).
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