Tired Bowlers Hold The Key In A Final Day Push For An Unlikely Win

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Late Strikes Turn the Match on its Head

 

June 15^th 2014

 

For a good part of the day a nightmare scenario was possible in which Sri Lanka managed a lead of 150 and then put England under pressure on a last day pitch. At 277-2 and 385-4, a Sri Lanka lead was looking like a real possibility. The fans were on England’s case and some of the comments about the Sri Lankan attack were being thrown back with interest.

However, the critics missed one key point. While England had barrelled along at a tremendous 4.4 per over, Sri Lanka were a full run per over slower. The England attack was keeping things tight and never letting the batsmen get away. It had two results. One was that even if Sangakkara or Jayawardene had gone on to a big double century, it would have taken a long time to build a lead. The second was that it left Sri Lanka vulnerable to a counterattack, which duly came after Tea. Wickets for Moeen Ali (who has had a very good match), Chris Jordan and Liam Plunkett (whose fastest ball was quicker than anything delivered by Mitch Johnson last winter) has left Sri Lanka 160 behind with little batting to come.

After his late wicket Plunkett built up a fearsome head of pace on a featherbed, ramping up to almost 95mph in an impressive final charge when he already had 30 overs in his legs. Jordan and Anderson both passed 90mph, although were mid-80s by the end. You feel that if Plunkett gets a responsive wicket in this short series or against India, he could cause some real mayhem.

The match situation is such that if England can knock over the last three wickets before lunch, they would have a chance to build on their lead today and declare, allowing the bowlers to have a shot at inducing a final day panic. The runs/time equation is critical. If Sri Lanka reach lunch, they will probably be only 70-80 behind with 5 sessions left. England would have to go at 5 an over for the last two sessions of the day to set a reasonable declaration target for the last day – not too many sides manage that in a Test (people insist on talking about T20 run rates in Tests when there are no fielding restrictions or limit on the bowlers, but it almost never happens). If the last three wickets were to go down in an hour, Sri Lanka would be 120-130 behind with some 75 overs left and that would offer real options to set something up, preferably giving Sri Lanka an hour to bat tonight.

A second factor is the bowlers. They have bowled 120 overs already in this innings. The less rest that they get, the less likely it will be that they can come out and make another huge effort on the final day. Plunkett has bowled 30 overs. Jordan, 27. Broad and Anderson, 24 each. Even Moeen Ali has bowled 16. People have talked about a lack of variation in the attack with 4 seamers: imagine if Plunkett’s overs had had to be shared out between Jordan, Broad and Anderson? They would have been driven into the ground.

It can only be in England that you load the attack with pace and then produce a featherbed pitch that, if it helps anyone on the last day, will help the opposition with their spin attack!

It all adds up to the fact that, although an England win is not impossible, they will need a lot of rub of the green to make it happen, starting with the last three Sri Lankan wickets falling quickly and passing through someone producing a big innings in quick time when England bat again.