England's Problems Are Nice Ones To Have

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

The Pieces are Falling Into Place for England

 

November 16^th 2013

 

What a change a few months make. Last spring the Australians were bullish and begging England to select Tim Bresnan as the perceived weak link in the England side, which they could take advantage of to win back the Ashes; now Tim Bresnan’s absence, even temporary, is being presented as a terrible disaster for England’s plans. The latest game has led to very different readings by England and Australian fans. For the Australians it is a meaningless result against weak opposition by an England side that has little idea what its best eleven is and which is severely underprepared for the challenge ahead. For England fans the issue is that the final place in the side must be picked on a wing and a prayer, with no one having made a clear case to support Anderson, Broad and Swann. And with Matt Prior injured, there is no ready-made replacement.

There is though, another interpretation. Of the top six who will step out on the Gabba turf, four – Carberry, Cook, Trott and Bell – have centuries, three of them “retired out”, the other, not out. Two of those centuries were converted into 150s. Root has two good fifties batting at 6. Pietersen has just one fifty from three innings, but looks in imperious form. Prior and Bairstow have both had a useful innings and, indeed, a few fans are even calling for Bairstow to keep the gloves for the Gabba (this would be a huge change of direction by England and a massive surprise). Each of the bowlers has played two matches and, the leading wicket takers on the tour so far are… Finn and Rankin, neither of whom has, supposedly, made a case for selection. In fact, Steve Finn has just one wicket fewer than Broad, Anderson and Swann together.

Finn has the largest number of wickets and, by some distance, the best strike rate. However, of the bowlers used by England, only the lightly used Ben Stokes has been more expensive than Steve Finn’s almost four and a half runs per over. Finn and Rankin have almost identical averages on tour, Rankin is considerable the more economical of the two but, whereas Broad, Anderson and Swann have all conceded fewer than three-an-over, Rankin is still the wrong side of three-an-over. A few people still advocate using Chris Tremlett, but he has been neither economical (only slightly less expensive than Steve Finn), nor effective (just one wicket so far).

What seems certain is that, unless Matt Prior has not recovered and there is no suggestion that he will not recover in time, England will pick: Carberry; Cook; Trott; Pietersen; Bell; Root; Prior; Broad; Swann; Anderson; Finn and Rankin. The last place will almost certainly depend on the pitch and a feeling as to which of Finn and Rankin will use it best.

Australia will, as in 2010/11, set out to hit Graeme Swann out of the attack, without gifting him wickets: a delicate balance at any time. Their game plan will depend on stopping him from bottling up an end for session after session, taking vital wickets through pressure, while allowing the three pacemen to be rotated at the other end. Do England want the threat and hostility of Steve Finn, or the ability of Boyd Rankin to close up an end? If it’s Finn, will he be able to take enough wickets to compensate the runs that he concedes? If it is Rankin, will he be able to offer enough threat to allow England to take twenty wickets? We will find out on Thursday.

Australia’s problems run deeper. Even though they have a side that is more or less settled, it is settled more through lack of options than anything else. The Australian plan is basically to hope that Ryan Harris stays fit and that Mitch Johnson can continue to bowl fast and straight, as he has been doing in ODIs. Australia’s problem in England was that when Peter Siddle ran out of steam after the second Test, there was little support for Ryan Harris’s new ball thrust and the change bowling could not sustain any kind of pressure, allowing England to convert poor starts consistently into 300+ totals. Since then, injuries have weakened the attack and the reserve strength still further.