Let's Not Panic Yet

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Still Plenty of Reasons not to Panic

 

November 23^rd 2013

 
 

It is not hard to feel shell-shocked if you are an England fan, but a long chat with Dave Bracegirdle, the BBC’s radio commentator for Nottinghamshire and a really nice guy to work with, has made me feel a lot better.

Last summer, Australia suffered from the fact that, although Ryan Harris was outstanding, he had so little support that England escaped time and again from difficult positions because Harris simply could not bowl for ever: see him off and prosper was the England theme to the series. Here, he has had brilliant support from Mitch Johnson, but Johnson has demonstrated time and again that he struggles to sustain good form even from one Test to another, let alone for a whole series. Like me, Dave Bracegirdle thinks that England will come good.

One thing that you could not help but notice in last Summer’s Ashes series was that England only seemed to start to play at 100% until they felt threatened by Australia. New Zealand had earned our respect in the winter and were dealt with in summary fashion, but Australia just did not seem to show the same level of threat. However, the way that England raised its game at Chester-le-Street and at The Oval showed that there was so much more in the tank that would come out, when needed. At Chester-le-Street Australia looked set to win and bring the series back to life until England stirred and suddenly the balance changed. At The Oval, Alistair Cook took advantage of a desperate Michael Clarke to come within a couple of overs of a stunning rope-a-dope win.

The fact that England have had a dreadful first innings to their away series for several years now has been much commented. However, England have also shown a capability to fight back that made the 3-0 defeat in the UAE even more surprising. After three days of the series in India last winter England were following-on, 330 behind. After a good start from Cook and Compton, a collapse to 199-5 soon after lunch made a four day defeat seem a formality. In fact. England took the match well into the afternoon session of the fifth day and India were wondering at one point, when England went ahead, still only five wickets down, if England would even manage to escape with a draw. Even though England lost that Test and, in truth, the Indians must have been getting seriously worried until Ojha took Matt Prior with a return catch, from that point the series became totally one-sided.

This was also a feature of the Duncan Fletcher years. Critics felt that England were playing with one hand tied behind their back by starting series slowly but, Duncan Fletcher and Andy Flower after him, realised that, in a series of four or five Tests, it is no use peaking in the first match. The problem came when the first Test of a series was lost, rather than drawn and the fightback never came. Duncan Fletcher’s Waterloo was the 2006/07 Ashes where the loss of the 1^st Test was followed by a wonderful fightback at Adelaide until the famous freeze on the final morning.

A feature of England fightbacks has been to come good with the match lost. It happened against India in that 1^st Test in 2012/13. It happened against South Africa in the 3^rd Test in 2012 – South Africa were close to panic as the England tail came closer and closer to a target that seemed impossible before falling agonisingly short – that match set England up for the victory in India. It happened at the Gabba in 2010/11. And, looking further back, it happened at Cardiff in 2009: Australia should have wrapped the match up with plenty to spare and were not best pleased when they did not.

Australia have, for at least five years, struggled to close out matches and series that they appeared to have won. At home to New Zealand in 2011/12 they won the 1^st Test by 9 wickets, having just failed to force the innings defeat in a match that they had dominated from start to finish. Despite bowling out New Zealand for 150 half way through the first afternoon, Australia LOST the Test and the series ended 1-1.

Almost every series some fool comes out with the hackneyed old saw: “one swallow does not a summer make” to justify some kind of fatuous comment. In Australia’s case, “one win will not a summer make”. They have to show that they can sustain an effort for more than five days.

It is not time to panic. There is plenty left to play for in this series still.