Thursday, 12 December 2013

Win The Toss. Win The Match!


 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Which way will England jump?

 

December 12th 2013

 

One thing that seems to have passed unnoticed is that Alistair Cook only needs to do one thing to bring England right back into this Ashes series: win the toss! So far, of the seven Ashes Tests this year, five have been won by the side winning the toss; the two exceptions were seriously rain-affected and also dominated by the side batting first. With the Perth match almost certain to produce a result, the chances that the sequence will extend to six wins from eight tosses won are very high.
England’s shadow side, the EPP, chased down 348 to win in a maximum of 77 overs against Western Australia 2nd XI. Key to the win was Jonny Bairstow’s 123, opening the batting. What was more interesting was that, if Gary Ballance is really intended to make his debut tonight, what he was doing batting down the order in a frantic run chase is open to question. It was Ballance though who saw England home with two overs to spare in company of Varun Chopra.

We still have little idea what the England strategy will be bar the rather open “there will be changes”. As there was really no chance that England would play two spinners at Perth, that one is pretty obvious. As it is also assumed that Tim Bresnan will play, one option is the straight swap of Bresnan for Panesar. This has some advantages: it would beef-up the tail and give England four seamers, while leaving Graeme Swann in the side for variation and as a specialist slip fielder. The worry here is that, with Stokes at 6, Prior at 7 and Broad at 8, the reliable batting would end with Ian Bell. Can England make enough runs for even five bowlers to defend?
Other options? Ballance for Stokes at 6. With temperatures forecast to reach as much as 40°C, going in with only three seamers is a huge risk, especially if England lose the toss again and the Australians continue to target Graeme Swann. Finn for Monty? Possible. Finn has to be bowled in short, sharp spells and bowl fast and aggressive. However, England badly want to have Tim Bresnan in the side to have a control bowler for long spells.

Quite possibly England will leave the top seven unchanged and make the straight Bresnan for Panesar swap. It may well be the least bad option, although I would love to see Steve Finn thundering in with the new ball tonight.
We will know in a few hours…

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