Friday, 25 March 2016

The World T20: Could the Elimination Matches Leave no Asian Sides in the Semi-Finals?


 

The World T20

Could the Elimination Matches Leave no Asian Sides in the Semi-Finals?

 

March 25th  2016

 



The West Indies did England a big favour by leaving their future in their own hands in Group 1, while India set up a winner-takes-all contest in Group 2. However, to give themselves a double chance of progress, England needed the West Indies to beat South Africa by a comfortable margin and get their Net Run-Rate down below their own: in succumbing to a narrow loss only, South Africa ensured they will have a chance to progress still if England lose to Sri Lanka because their Net Run-Rate is comfortably the best of the three teams still in contention. The scenarios are fairly simple:

1.      If England win, they qualify for the Semi-Finals, almost certainly against New Zealand at Delhi on Wednesday (the tiny “if” and “but” is that a huge England win, combined with a defeat for the West Indies against Afghanistan, could see England top the group and play in the second Semi-Final instead).

2.      If England lose, they are out as their NRR is inferior to South Africa’s and can only get worse in a defeat.

3.      If England lose to Sri Lanka, the second qualifier from Group 1 will be decided in the final Group match between Sri Lanka and South Africa. If Sri Lanka win both remaining games, they qualify and two big wins, combined with a West Indian defeat against Afghanistan could even see them top the group. If Sri Lanka beat England and lose to South Africa, South Africa will, almost certainly qualify on NRR barring a huge NRR swing relative to South Africa.

In Group 2 the scenarios have been simplified as Pakistan lost to Australia and are now eliminated. Now, whoever wins the India v Australia clash will qualify for the Semi-Finals. Again, barring the combination of a huge defeat for New Zealand against Bangladesh and huge win for either India or Australia, New Zealand will play the first Semi-Final at Delhi and the winner of India v Australia will play (almost certainly) West Indies in Mumbai.

In summary:

Group 1 – winner: West Indies, England or Sri Lanka; runner-up: West Indies, England, South Africa or Sri Lanka. Definitely eliminated: Afghanistan.

Group 2 – winner: New Zealand, India or Australia; runner-up, New Zealand, Australia or India; eliminated: Pakistan and Bangladesh.

England are in the unusual position of being warm favourites against Sri Lanka. Despite speculation that Liam Dawson could be picked as third spinner, the only likely change is a fit again Alex Hales coming back for James Vince. The braver option of Dawson replacing Ben Stokes, giving England three seamers and three spinners seems unlikely to be risked: the danger is that Sri Lankan batsmen, who are comfortable against spin, could feast on a nervous rookie, while Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid bowled just five overs between them against Afghanistan. However, Sri Lanka are not Afghanistan, even if their batting is misfiring badly as they struggle to replace retired stars. England will definitely want to chase in their day-night game, however valiantly their bowlers defended a modest target against Afghanistan.

When India and Australia both lost their first game of the tournament to New Zealand they knew that survival would boil down to their game. Pakistan, who could have gate-crashed the party, have been eliminated, both beating them fairly comfortably. Pakistan have been a huge disappointment and went down meekly against Australia when they knew that it was better not to die wondering. Australia though are not a side that inspires fear any longer and kept them interested almost until the end.

India are lucky to be in the competition still. Well beaten by New Zealand, they should have lost to Bangladesh. However, they are still in with a chance of qualification and carry the expectations of a fifth of the world’s population and, as the Bangladesh game showed, know how to get out of a tight corner. Failing to qualify for the Semi-Finals of the competition in front of their own fans is simply not an option. Australia crumbled under pressure against New Zealand and stuttered against Bangladesh, but Australia are the ultimate survivors. Who will win this pressure clash is almost impossible to call.

There is, though, a real chance that none of the five Asian sides who have qualified will make the Semi-Finals: who would have imagined that before the tournament?

Thursday, 24 March 2016

The World T20: England & India's Jekyll and Hyde Campaigns Continue


 

The World T20

England & India’s Jekyll and Hyde Campaigns Continue

 

March 24th  2016

 

Beat Afghanistan and England will have one foot in the Semi-Finals”. If only things were so simple. There is now a strong possibility that England could win their last group game with Sri Lanka, making it three wins from four and still fail to reach the Knock-Out stage.

England, South Africa and Sri Lanka are locked in a battle for, most likely, one place in the Semi-Finals, assuming that the West Indies do beat Afghanistan, although there are multiple scenarios, including one that sees West Indies, England, Sri Lanka and South Africa all sweating on the last round of group matches.

England have to beat Sri Lanka on Saturday and then hope that other results fall the right way. Two wins for South Africa against Sri Lanka and West Indies will see their big NRR advantage in play and would set up a likely elimination for England, with West Indies and South Africa going through on NRR. If West Indies beat South Africa on Good Friday, England will go through with a win against Sri Lanka on Saturday. There is though also a all too plausible scenario whereby South Africa, England and Sri Lanka are all locked on two wins, with the West Indies on four. While Sri Lanka, the holders, know that they will progress if they beat South Africa and England.

This has been a tournament of what might have been for Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Bangladesh should have beaten India. Afghanistan could have beaten South Africa and should have beaten England. At 57-6 after 9.2 overs the question was whether or not England could bat out 20 overs. At 85-7 after 14.3, the question was whether or not England could reach 120 and give their bowlers something to defend. However, the last 3 overs went for 44 (31 was the next best 3-over haul in the match) and 142-7 was always going to be a tough target on a pitch where free-scoring proved surprisingly difficult. The difference between the sides ultimately was the 25 runs taken by Moeen and Willey from the penultimate over. Afghanistan needed a good start to their reply induce panic in England and settle their own jangling nerves, but failed to get it. At 13-3 after 18 balls the Afghanistan challenge was all but over and, save momentarily, late in the innings, they were always behind England at the same stage.

For England it was a further reminder of the good and the bad about this team. As against South Africa, an awful display in the first half of the match got them in terrible trouble, but a remarkable fight-back scrambled the win in extremis. While the England side of two years ago would have accepted its fate and slipped to a humiliating defeat, this England was able to come back and still win somehow: while watching them is never going to be relaxing, it is a useful talent to have in any sport to be able to scramble a win despite an awful performance.

What though of India? Self-confessed favourites to win, they were one ball from almost certain elimination from their home tournament in a format that they profess to own. Bangladesh needed just two runs from the last three balls with wickets in hand. The over had gone 1 4 4. An edge past the ‘keeper would win it. What followed was pure theatre: catch in the deep, catch in the covers and then a run-out, last ball, trying to run a bye to Dhoni, who had the presence of mind to take off his right glove, standing back to allow him to throw if the batsman missed and tried to scramble the bye, but then ran up to the stumps and break them rather than risking the throw that he had prepared. Dhoni won the race to the stumps by a short head and Bangladesh had somehow managed to contrive to lose.

With New Zealand already qualified, the India v Australia match previously identified as the key game becomes an eliminator. India could lose it and still qualify, but they would depend on Pakistan beating Australia. Pakistan’s slim hopes also depend on winning that clash and setting up an Australia-India-Pakistan tie on two wins each.

It is timely to remember that, even in this short format with its maximum of six matches per team, no side has ever gone through the tournament unbeaten. That fact might just encourage one of the teams that has ridden its luck so far to qualify: India and England could teach Houdini a thing or two with their performances in this tournament and one or other of them may yet make that luck pay dividends.

Saturday, 19 March 2016

The World T20: Manic England’s Best & Worst, India's D-Day


 

The World T20

Manic England’s Best & Worst, India's D-Day

 

March 18th  2016

 



Lessons from a crazy match:

 

1.      England will chase any total that they are set with a good chance of making the runs.

2.      The seamers are essentially helpless in this tournament against aggressive batsmen.

3.      For the remaining group games either Liam Plunkett (high pace) or a third spinner (Dawson) has to replace one of the seamers.

When the opposition are 96-0 after 7 overs, despite David Willey’s first over going for just two runs, you know that you have a real issue. Fans were thinking that England would be  chasing 250 at least, possibly more than 300. Certainly, any hope of a meaningful contest seemed misplaced and black humour suggested that South Africa would declare after ten overs and have enough to win (125-2) because England would surely collapse to a massive defeat.

The scenarios for qualification were clear: win and a win against Afghanistan would put England very close; lose and everything would hang on beating Afghanistan and Sri Lanka and other results falling in place; lose badly and it would be all but over mathematically.

What happened? The first thing was that in overs 11, 12 & 13, Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali imposed some control for the first time. Despite Adil Rashid’s first two overs going for 13 and 14, he had also got rid of AB de Villiers and Eoin Morgan, this time, allowed him to continue. The result was a period of three overs that went for just 14, with the bonus of Hashim Amla’s wicket. In the context of the match it was like bowling three straight maidens: they were by far the cheapest three overs of the match (the next best was the 20 that South Africa’s bowlers conceded in overs 7-9). It meant that thoughts of chasing 270-280 were forgotten: the chase would be huge, but not totally impossible with a team of attacking batsmen on a flat pitch. The last five overs added 63, but even that was far fewer than had seemed probable at one point.

Second, England were liberated by what appeared to be a near-impossible chase and came out swinging. Jason Roy hit 21 from the first over and Hales and Roy 23 from the second. Even though Hales fell to the fifteenth ball of the innings, after 3 overs England were 56-1 and the back of the chase was broken.

Third, South Africa’s bowling fell apart even worse than England’s had: 5 wides in the first over adding to Roy’s four boundaries; England gave away 2 wides (and 2 byes), South Africa offered 10 wides that gave away 20 runs. With the extra runs and balls keeping the score ticking over. England were never behind the run rate and could afford some quiet overs and even a mini-collapse at the end and still win with some comfort.

Over the next few days the qualifying scenario will unfold. In Group 2 – the group of death – it looks as if India’s game against Australia has become a virtual eliminator: two defeats for either side, both having lost their first game, would leave qualifying very difficult. However, India have an even bigger must-win game first. India play Pakistan before playing Australia and with the stakes high, a Pakistan win would leave the Australia v India game even more highly charged as India would have to win and even then would face elimination. With tensions so high between the regional rivals, things could get nasty, particularly if India look like losing the match. For India, home team and overwhelming pre-tournament favourites to start with two defeats, particularly if one of them is to their greatest rival, might be too much for some of their passionate fans to bear. Similarly, with two wins from two, like New Zealand, Pakistan would be almost through to the Semi-Finals. India will be under a lot of pressure and did not react well to it against New Zealand.

In Group 1, Sri Lanka v South Africa later in the week looks like a key game but, here, the qualifying scenario is less clear with only three games played: South Africa know that they have to win it.
 

Thursday, 17 March 2016

The World T20: England Show their Promise and their Frailty


 

The World T20

England Show their Promise and their Frailty

 

March 16th  2016

 

When I was a kid, there was only one place to be around 6pm on a Saturday evening. Grandstand, with its miscellany of sport and results had finished. The early evening news had come and gone. It was time to get behind the sofa and watch Doctor Who in safety. It is the same for hardened England fans watching their team: you know it is going to terrify you, but any offer to turn off the TV and end the suffering is rejected indignantly – however much it leaves you a nervous, trembling wreck, you just have to watch. England’s T20 campaign promises to leave us in the same, terrified-but-unable-not-to-watch condition.

In the warm-up against New Zealand, England shipped 169-8 and looked likely to be chasing 210-220 at one stage, before reaching their target with some comfort thanks to a good start and contributions all down the order. Chris Jordan was the most economical of the seamers, with the spinners retrieving control. Against Mumbai CA it was the same story: top order runs, a good, if not imposing total and then behind on runs and wickets all through the Mumbai chase until it ran out of oxygen two overs before inflicting an embarrassing defeat.

So, the lesson from the warm-ups was that runs would not be a problem, but defending them would be and that if the spinners did not take control in the middle overs, England would be in real trouble.

And so it came to pass. Although the England start was not quite as jet-propelled as some have been recently, 92-1 after 11 overs gave a platform for the big-hitters. You would have thought that 182 would have been plenty to defend. More so even when David Willey, the marginal choice, followed two wides with a straight one and then a wicket and two massive appeals for LBW (one of which would have been umpire’s call). Four legitimate deliveries and we had already seen enough action for a whole powerplay. With the West Indians there is always that feeling that a Calypso-collapso is close – even more so in this team that has been affected by withdrawals and internal dissention – and that one wicket might bring several. When Adil Rashid came on and immediately dismissed Samuels, there was an opportunity there. Three tight overs and the West Indies could have started to self-destruct quickly. However, Chris Gayle may be a veteran who will be 37 by the end of the summer, but he can spot danger. Adil Rashid’s first nine balls left him on 1.3-0-7-1 and threatening to suffocate the West Indian challenge – his next three went for 6, 6, 1. Eoin Morgan panicked and took Adil Rashid out of the attack, removing his best wicket-taking and control option. It left Chris Jordan as his only option for control.

With Adil Rashid not seen again, Gayle was allowed to feast on Ben Stokes – economy in T20s, 9.5 – and David Willey (with an economy of 9.5, only fractionally less expensive). With Reece Topley learning his trade, also with an economy over 9, Eoin Morgan had tied one hand behind his back by playing expensive seamers when it has been the spinners who have posed the problems up to now. It is quite possible that whoever was bowled would have been severely treated, but it was significant that, despite a brutal mugging in an over that ended with three consecutive maximums, Moeen Ali was comfortably the most economical bowler on the day for England after Chris Jordan while, for the West Indies it was Sulieman Benn. For England, Willey, Topley and Stokes were all more expensive than Adil Rashid. Chris Gayle saw who the dangerman was and deliberately targeted him, while Eoin Morgan made the mistake of ensuring the effectiveness of the tactic.

England now face a match against South Africa on Friday that is not quite an eliminator, although defeat would leave England depending on other results to survive in the competition, as well as needing to win their last two matches by big margins. It would be hard to come back from a second defeat.

However, it is as well to remember 2010. England lost a rain-affected game to the West Indies. They then played Ireland and set them just 120 to win, which left England in real danger of a rapid and embarrassing elimination. Had rain not intervened or, worse, intervened just enough to set a shortened chase (as had been the case in the West Indies game), it is quite possible that England would have been out of the competition. As it was, they qualified for the second round without a win, thanks to having lost to the West Indies by a smaller margin than Ireland had. The rest is history: they won their next five matches and the trophy.

Wednesday, 16 March 2016

The World T20: Indian Confidence. Irish Dreams Shattered. Englishmen Watching from Behind the Sofa


 

The World T20

Indian Confidence. Irish Dreams Shattered. Englishmen Watching from Behind the Sofa.

 

March 15th  2016

 

If you read the previews and the views of the fans, there is really no point in holding the World T20: it is all decided. India, playing at home, are overwhelming favourites, despite the fact that no home team has ever won it and the favourites have rarely ended up as the winners. Group 2 looks by far the stronger of the two and the supposition is that the top two in Group 1 will dispute the Final, with India coming out as winners.
The CricInfo poll leaves no doubts. 47.4% of respondents picked India as the team to beat, followed by Pakistan on 19.5%. The teams in Group 2 fill the top three places and five of the top six in the fan poll on the likely winner. In contrast, fewer than 1% of respondents backed England to win – while, to put it in perspective, 2.5% back Afghanistan.
Of course, cricket is not played on paper, nor are results decided by fan polls. The opening group game has seen India humiliated by New Zealand and by an spinner, born in India, who averages 53 in Tests, another who is trying to establish himself in the side and by a veteran who averages 46.9 in ODIs. While the best T20 bowler in the tournament – Ravi Ashwin – took 1-32, Sodhi, McCullum and Santer produced combined figures of 12-0-44-9. While New Zealand scored relatively freely against the Indian spinners, New Zealand’s unheralded trio proved almost unplayable, despite the pre-match prediction that the dew would make picking them suicidal.
The World T20 format though is such that even in this expanded version with more group games, four wins from six matches could see a team lift the trophy. When England won in 2010, how many people remember that they qualified for the second phase despite not winning either group game and could easily have lost to Ireland before rain saved them from potential defeat?
With the World T20 main tournament just starting, without Ireland, who have now slipped to 16th of the 17 teams with an official T20 ranking, just a fraction ahead of Oman, CricInfo’s Tm Wigmore has produced a very interesting article on the Irish debacle in qualifying (http://www.espncricinfo.com/icc-world-twenty20-2016/content/story/982797.html). Aside from the fact that their entire tournament was decided by just two erratic overs in a match that seemed won, with a wash-out in their second game ending their interest, this articles echoes several conversations that I had last week with fans after their elimination: the other Associates and Affiliates are catching up, the Irish attack is beginning to look somewhat long in the tooth (T20 is a young man's game) and there may well have been some relaxing of standards. Overall though, the feeling is that the time of the golden generation is ending. Seven of the Irish squad are 25 & under and the performances of George Dockrell, in particular, were excellent when he got a chance, but the seam attack is all 30+ and was showing it. Tim Murtagh has been poached from England to lead the attack on the tenuous grounds of an Irish grandparent, but will be past 35 at the end of this season. While Tim Murtagh could have played Tests (he was on the fringes) & Boyd Rankin has played one, both are near the end of their careers now: neither should be around for the next World T20: they'll do fine in the Intercontinental Cup due to their experience, but should not play T20 if Ireland are to move forward.
Despite the understandable skepticism of fans who see their current team as simply not good enough, the Irish would, at their peak, have competed well with the lower-ranked Test sides, particularly at home. Their player base is not far short of Zimbabwe's and may well be larger and the facilities are improving. I can well imagine that Zimbabwe and Bangladesh would not have enjoyed an easy time at Stormont or Clontaff and that the West Indies would have found the Irish tough opponents on their home turf. However, the point that many of the Irish do not play regular FC cricket is a good one. Most are cast as limited-overs specialists. Dockrell, once tipped as England's next spinner, languishes in Somerset 2nd XI. The Middlesex Irish are most 2nd XI or limited-overs options and even Tim Murtagh himself knows that given the strength of the Middlesex seam attack he is not guaranteed 1st XI cricket unless there are England calls. Able to call on Tim Murtagh, Toby Roland-Jones, Steve Finn and James Harris, with Tom Helm coming through and Neil Dexter as a very good fourth seamer, it is only the fact that the batting has tended to have the stability of a blancmange that has stopped Middlesex from making a sustained challenge in the Championship. If Tim Murtagh struggles to get regular cricket, as he may, Ireland will have to ask themselves if a 35 year old seamer who was never really express pace is what they need to lead their attack. All the Irish seamers in the World T20 were the wrong side of 30 and started to creak at times. Indeed, one of the unkinder – but not inaccurate – comments was that Murtagh’s new ball partner has shown England, with some erratic overs, just what they were missing when he joined Murtagh in switching allegiance.
If the World T20 had been held immediately after the tour of the UAE, England fans would have felt supremely confident. Having competed hard in the Test series, but lost, England lost the first ODI and the fans predicted a bloodbath; England then won the remaining ODIs and T20s. A young side – and the team in the UAE was little more than a strong Lions team – looked as if their feared no one and could take on and be a match for anyone. A mauling by South Africa changed everything. However, there are reasons to feel that England could do well: in Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali England have two spinners who have shown how well they can tie sides down when there is some help in the pitch. Hales and Roy are giving express starts and the middle order, with Morgan, Buttler and Stokes can turn a match in a few overs and Moeen Ali, Adil Rashid and Chris Jordan are all capable of producing devastating blitzes at the death. However, the collapse in South Africa in which the last five matches on tour and six of the last eight were all lost illustrates the fragility of the side and why it is just a likely that they come away red-faced as it is that they make the Final. A good New Zealand side was beaten in the warm-up match, with Moeen and Adil Rashid wresting control, but only a few weeks earlier they were well-beaten by the same South African team that will be England’s second opponents here. To be sure of qualifying, England must beat Afghanistan, plus two of West Indies, South Africa and Sri Lanka.
With just 10 points in the ICC T20 table separating New Zealand in 2nd and Sri Lanka in 8th, in theory the field is wide open. With the matches being played in India, even Bangladesh, the lowest ranked of the participating teams, should not be discounted. One brilliant innings or an inspired over may be the difference between a side reaching the semi-Finals and being eliminated: once in the semi-Finals, you only need to win two games and so anything can happen. One thing is certain, whoever wins, perfect 20-20 hindsight will make their victory have been inevitable to all.

Saturday, 13 February 2016

South Africa v England: ODIs - Here we go again: English wilt feeds blooming Proteas


 

South Africa v England: ODIs

Here we go again: English wilt feeds blooming Proteas

 

February 13th  2016

 
We had a Test series in which the initiative swung wildly from side to side. Now we have a One Day series that is doing the same. The events of last night will have done little to diminish South African thoughts that they were robbed in the 2nd ODI and, one has to sympathise. When South Africa found themselves needing 53 from 51 balls with only two wickets left, you would have staked Geoff Boycott’s mortgage on England winning. Two balls later, Chris Morris lobbed a gentle catch to Adil Rashid on the boundary and the match was over – except that Adil Rashid made such a mess of it that South Africa could run a comfortable two and Morris was off.

Previously, Hales had dropped Duminy on 1 at 67-3. Roy dropped AB de Villiers on 9 at 76-3. Duminy scored 31 and lasted until 143-5 and de Villiers made 36 and lasted until 121-4. On straight runs conceded, the drops cost 105 runs. Once again, chances missed have proved to be very expensive. In the 2nd Test you can argue that dropped chances cost England the win. Here, they were the difference between a big margin of victory and a narrow defeat.

In the 3rd ODI England had an off day and revived South Africa in the series when they could have buried them. Here, it seemed that England’s game plan was to ensure that the series would go to an exciting finale on Sunday. Every time England were ahead in the match, they let South Africa back in. Jeeves himself could not have been so accommodating. While Jason Roy has had an eminently forgettable series apart from his 48 in the 1st ODI – his ultra-fast starts have usually been ultra-brief too – he is yet to reach the ninth over of the innings in any of the matches, Alex Hales has gone from strength to strength: 57, 99 65, & 50. No doubt he will be castigated by the fans for “getting in and getting out”, or “getting set, but not going on to a big score”, but he is having a remarkable series that can only do his confidence good. His 99 was marked by battling through on a less than easy pitch. The 57 in the 1st ODI was a more brutal effort with 6x4 and 2x6, leaving the England score on 130 after just 17.4 overs when he got out. Last night, it was a re-building effort with Joe Root after Jason Roy, once again, got out quickly.

With England 87-1 before the last ball of the eighteenth over, Hales on 50 and Root batting serenely on 26 and the scoring rate accelerating nicely, the sights were on a total well over 300, with 350+ on the cards. The groundsman’s words that this was a 400-pitch looked all too predictive. Nothing though seems to be straightforward for either side. England’s healthy 87-1 became a ruinous 108-6 in just 35 balls and the prospect of an early finish looked all too real. In vain you could point out that the MEDIAN completed innings score in Day/Night matches at this ground was just 213 – in other words, half the completed innings in day/nighters at the ground have been under 213. In fact, three times sides have won with totals under 200.

Still England could have put the match out of reach. First Root and Woakes, then Root and Adil Rashid threatened to get England up to 280-290, which would have taken a lot of chasing. 258-8. Eighteen balls to go. Adil Rashid batting beautifully. Stuart Broad only needed to push the singles and let Adil Rashid finish the job. Wild heave. Thanks very much. England left 13 balls unused.

Still England had a chance to close the match out. 263 would be the third biggest chase under lights at the Wanderers. Stuart Broad castled Amla for a duck in the first over and England could not have got a better start. The next six batsmen all got to 20, but none could pass 38. At 210-8 it should have been all over, but then came Chris Morris.

England had made a big call by bringing back Stuart Broad. It looked like a mistake. It was a mistake. 7-0-55-1 were by far the most expensive on either side. Although he can still bat in a Test when he has time to play himself in, or a licence to take a swing, here his contribution was negligible; in fact it was harmful. Maybe Chris Jordan afforded himself a wry smile.

South Africa now have the initiative in the series, They have several players in prime form and the side is coming together nicely. Even if England manage to change the momentum of the series yet again and win the final match, probably it will be South Africa the happier side.

Sunday, 7 February 2016

South Africa v England: ODIs - As You Were! England Back to Dominating Ways


 

South Africa v England: ODIs

As You Were! England Back to Dominating Ways
 

February 7th  2016

 

Any way you look at it, England’s performance in the Test series was irregular. A few devastating sessions of play that won two Tests but, when they were ahead in the series, a tendency to relax and let South Africa take the initiative. While there was never a danger of losing the 2nd Test, despite the last day collapse, the 4th Test surrender was pusillanimous in the extreme.

In Tests, despite the way that a team performance would suddenly come together, few of the squad can look back at their personal performances with much satisfaction. When four of the top five have just one, or at the most, two decent scores in the series and poor starts are the rule, something is still seriously wrong. That takes nothing away from a South African attack that, while weakened by injuries (what side can consistently field its best attack these days? England certainly would argue that they did not field their best attack at any point) gave the searching examination of technique that everyone expected. Not everyone was up to it, but one has to think that Hales and Compton were facing constantly fresh bowlers with a new ball, in helpful conditions and in a crisis. For the first four innings of the series Alex Hales saw his captain fall early: not ideal for a player who had every right to feel nervous who needed the help of a calm head at the other end. In the 1st Test, Nick Compton felt the opprobrium of press and fans for trying to give some solidity to the batting and was, progressively, turned into a nervous wreck who got out trying to force the scoring rather than do what he does best.

In Tests, England are very much a work in progress, not the completed article, although there are signs that there is much more to come.

In ODIs, the transformation after the World Cup has been extraordinary: eight times in sixteen innings England have passed 300. Six times their run-rate for an innings has been over 7. Only twice have England failed to pass a run-rate of 5 – both in matches lost. Of the seven times that England have reached 350 in 661 ODIs, five have been since the start of June 2015. Although the win-loss record is only 10-6 since the start of the 2015 summer, it is the way that the runs have been scored that has caught the attention.

Beating Pakistan in the UAE, particularly after losing the first ODI badly, was a real eye-opener, but playing South Africa at home was always going to be a benchmark. Over the last three years the South African record at home has been Won 12, lost 6. Just one of the last five home ODI series has been lost: a 2-1 loss to Pakistan in 2013. And South Africa have crossed 400 in an ODI no less than four times since the start of 2015: England are the only other side to have done it even once.

The first ODI ended in unsatisfactory manner with a massive storm ending the game when still finely poised. England’s 399-9 should have been enough to win, but it is also true that before Joe Root fell to the last ball of the 30th over, England were 227-2 and 450 looked perfectly possible. The innings lost a little momentum and even 400 was denied by Reece Topley’s total inability to put bat to ball after Chris Jordan was out in the final over. Just twice in the history of ODIs has a side scored more than 380 and lost, so you would think that England were in pole position.

South Africa though, set about the chase in a way that shows why their fans genuinely believe that they can chase any target, however big.

At 20 overs South Africa were actually well ahead of England at the same stage: 154-3 against 138-2 although, at 25 overs, England had sneaked back ahead (191-2 against 188-3). With rain threatening, it was obvious that Duckworth-Lewis could well decide the result. Such situations generally favour the chasing side, which knows exactly what it has to do at any stage and can produce a sprint for the line. The danger for South Africa was that they had lost more wickets than England at the same stage and Duckworth-Lewis punishes this severely.

After 30 overs of the chase the equation was:

England 227-3, South Africa 223-4. D-L target: 256-4. England ahead by 33, down from the deficit of 42 after 20 overs, but not suggesting that the momentum was really with South Africa.

Over 31 was a big over. Deficit cut to 24, but Quinton de Kock playing a lone hand and cramping up badly. Four off the first ball of over 32, bowled by Chris Jordan.

Then, the disaster. The next eleven balls produced just five singles and the wicket of Roussow. Instead of decreasing, the deficit climbed back to 39. South Africa depended totally on de Kock and the rain started to fall.

AB de Villiers had more than one reason to be unhappy, but probably will regret his post-match words, suggesting that South Africa were well-placed to win because he sounded churlish: South Africa still had a mountain to climb and do have a history of messing up D-L chases. This was combined by some fans with the nature of his dismissal to suggest that South Africa had been cheated of a victory that was justly theirs.

Third ball of the 20th over. Match about to go live with 20 overs completed. D-L par score 169-2. South Africa 18 behind, with four balls of the over left. ABdV hammers a Moeen delivery down the ground for a certain six. With Ben Stokes chasing at full pelt just inside the boundary line, the ball flew over him. That much is not being argued.

Rather than watch the ball fall for six, Stokes, still sprinting and watching the ball, reached out behind him and caught the it one-handed, managing to avoid touching the boundary line. Not only was the catch itself athletic, but staying in play was a remarkable effort.

So, apparently, an open and shut case. The batsman, like so many others, failed to treat Moeen with sufficient respect and paid the price trying to get South Africa ahead on D-L. Until fans started to point out that the boundary line had moved  a couple of metres in the strong wind and that Ben Stokes had been out of play when he took the catch. In other words, it should have been a six and not a wicket. The obvious answer is that a fielder can only play with the boundary as marked at the time and, if the ground staff fail to keep it in position, it is hardly the fielder’s fault if he is granted an advantage.

The sense of injustice that many South Africans feel that the better side lost the Test series was compounded by the impression that, once again, justice had not been done in the result of the match. England fans will say that the target was a tough 155 from 102 balls, with only five wickets left and a lame batsman at the crease on whom the chase depended. South African fans will say that they had kept well in touch with the run rate and that with de Kock 138* from 96 balls, anything was possible.

It is not beside the point though that England had made hay – 93 runs – against the combined South African fifth bowler while, by playing six specialist bowlers, England were not committed to ten overs from anyone and still had nine overs in the bag from their opening bowlers: one wicket would have left the tail chasing more than nine-an-over against the best opposition bowlers.

The South African fifth bowler was the problem in the second ODI too. On a pitch which was awkward and that made free-scoring almost impossible, South Africa should have been able to defend 262 with something to spare. The fact that they did not was down to the comparison between fourth and fifth bowlers: Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali, both accustomed to rough treatment at the hands of their own fans, combined for 20-1-84-1. Tahir, Duminy and Behardien combined for 20-0-128-0.

England stayed right up with the South African score at the same stage and, from the end of the 43rd over, just pulled away thanks to wickets and hand and the forcing batting of the middle and lower-middle order. If 48 from 28 balls was the sort of performance that one has grown to expect from Jos Buttler in this format, 21 from 15 balls from Moeen Ali was the et tu Brute. For South Africa, only Rabada could score at a rate of over 100.

Each side built their innings around one player: South Africa around AB de Villiers’s 73; England around Alex Hales’s 99. While Hales could anchor the chase until the finishing line was in sight thanks to Buttler, Moeen, Eoin Morgan and, more briefly, Jason Roy all scoring at better than a run-a-ball, South Africa lacked the forcing support that was needed. If South Africa can consider themselves a little unfortunate to have lost the first match, in this one they were comprehensively out-batted, out-bowled and out-fielded.

Both Hale and Jordan can think about how capricious fortune can be. Hales is still opening against Abbott, Rabada and Morkel, but can point to a quick 57 and a match-winning 99 to his name. Against the same bowlers in the Tests he managed twenty runs fewer in eight innings. Chris Jordan may also offer a wry smile. 5.3 overs for 53 in the 1st ODI having not bowled a ball in anger in the entire tour, he was the target of severe criticism from the fans and, had England lost, would probably not have played the second game. Although he only sent down 5 overs again and, bowling much better, went for 0-33, he produced two excellent catches, one of them arguably a match-winner that, of all the other members of the team, maybe only Ben Stokes would have taken. Cue the “playing as a specialist fielder” jibes, but Jordan continues to produce these match-winning flashes of brilliance, such as his super-over in the T20 in the UAE, that make one believe that he could break through at any time.