Third Test, Day 2: Repent! The End Is Nigh!

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

Third Test: Day 2; The End is Nigh!

 

July 30^th 2015

 

 

Before the Test started I suggested the following revolutionary thought that, despite England’s miserable capitulation at Lord’s:

“Australia are still vulnerable”.

Two truncated days of cricket later – only 158.5 overs of a potential 188 have been bowled, equivalent to a fraction under 5 sessions – and the match would have been over already without a valiant rearguard action from a player who many of the Australian team reportedly did not want to see in the side and another who every Englishman loves to hate. Without it Australia would have lost in two days for the first time in over 120 years and, most likely by an innings.

It is not quite what you would have predicted when England staggered drunkenly to 190-7 about 40 minutes before Lunch, with Australia apparently right back in the game.

It all looked so easy before the start of play. Take advantage of excellent batting conditions. Grind Australia down. Score 400.

Enter Mitch…

Exit Jonny Bairstow and Ben Stokes in a single, supercharged over.

It was the sort of devastating response that Australia had required the previous afternoon instead of when England were already ahead.

Then, something unexpected happened. In came Stuart Broad. A fired-up Mitch Johnson with the ball. How long would it take him to deliver a straight one? Somehow Broad survived and runs started to flow more quickly. And then, after Lunch, a fully-fledged and brutal counter-attack: 37 runs from the first five overs.

Moeen Ali and Stuart Broad undid all Australia’s good work of the morning and showed that the talk about attack was not just talk. Australia looked very ordinary. Heads dropped. Australia looked defeated.

A lead of 145 was far fewer than it should have been but, even so, was a mountain to climb. Logic though has been out to lunch in this series.

Lose Chris Rogers early? No problem! David Warner smashed the ball to all parts. Australia were scoring at 5-an-over and looking at a substantial lead by the Close and setting England a challenging target on the third day.

Expect the unexpected. Most England fans thought that picking Steve Finn was a terrible risk, so he proceeded to wipe out what most consider to be the best batting line-up in the world: Smith, Clarke, Voges, Marsh. 5-45. Merci beaucoup.

Well as Finn and England bowled, you had to think that Australia’s batting showed all the strength and character of melting ice cream, as Neville and Mitch Johnson demonstrated by batting solidly for almost eighteen overs and putting Australia into the lead.

Effectively 23-7, Australia need at least one hundred more from the tail in the morning. All logic says that England will win before Lunch but, then, logic hasn’t had a great match so far, has it?

Mitch-watch: 3, 16-2-66-2 and 14.

It has been an odd match for Mitch. An amazing over early in the morning that got Australia back into the match. Sensible batting in the evening that saved them from a likely innings defeat. And not much in between.

Third Test, Day 1: The World Turns On Its Head... Again!

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

Third Test: Day 1; What on Earth is Going on Here?

 

July 29^th 2015

 

How much damage has Lord’s done to England’s morale? The Australians are laughing and poking fun again, which is never pleasant to watch; really they do not seem to consider this England side worthy opponents and, to their more radical fans, the first Test was a story of a doctored pitch and diabolical luck.

Wiser heads will have seen that Australia are still vulnerable. There are doubts about the health of Chris Rogers, who has had a second, frightening scare. The middle order of Clarke, Voges and Marsh missed out to a large degree when the top of the order were scoring runs for fun at Lord’s. And, of course, there is Mitch J.: can he have consecutive good matches in England for the first time? As the Australian talismen, if Clarke and Mitch J. are struggling, Australia will struggle. It is not hard to argue that Australia are not as good as they appeared to be at Lord’s, nor are England so bad: something between Cardiff and Lord’s is the correct balance. Man for man, Australia are probably better, but by much less than we expected before the series started.

That said, England’s top order struggles are getting too serious to ignore. Lyth, Ballance and Bell are all under real threat. On this occasion, Ballance has been made the fall guy, allowing Jonny Bairstow to come back in for what seems like his umpteenth opportunity but, he has got so many runs for Yorkshire that if the county game is to have any relevance to the Test side, he had to get into the side.

More controversially, with Mark Wood injured, Steve Finn was recalled. This seemed like a high-risk strategy. To everyone’s astonishment though – particularly, one suspects, the Australians, Finn had a blinder. Brought on for Stuart Broad after just three overs from him, Finn immediately removed Steve Smith and suddenly, the whole balance of the series seemed to change. Steve Smith had hit 215 and 58 at Lord’s and here he was, edging to slip cheaply off a bowler who Australia can hardly have considered a threat. And then, in his third over, Finn removed Clarke too and suddenly Australia were under the cosh and England knew that they needed just one more wicket.

Enter another bowler ridiculed by the Australian fans. Jimmy Anderson tore through the breech created by Finn. Within half an hour of Lunch is was 94-7 and you were blinking in disbelief. If the courageous Chris Rogers, who knew that one more blow to the head would probably end his career, had not hung on like a limpet Australia would have been in dire straits. Once Stuart Broad finally removed him, there was no recovery.

The most optimistic fans saw England with a lead by the Close. Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath predicted that 136 would give Australia a significant first innings lead and that Australia would be batting again by the Close.

How wonderful it was to see the Australian seamers show as little discipline as their batsmen and allow England to race along. None of the seamers when for less than 4-an-over (even the most profiligate of England’s seam trio – Steve Finn – went at well under 4) and had it not been for Lyon’s two wickets – one, the most outrageous piece of luck to dismiss Alistair Cook, the other the most outrageous rush of blood from Ian Bell – Australia’s situation would be even more dire.

There was plenty of talk that England were outrageously lucky, with many fine deliveries getting no reward, but the truth of it was that Australia’s attack was like a pre-2004 version of Andrew Flintoff: loads of effort, loads of threat, but little reward because the length and the line were not quite right to turn balls that skimmed past the edge into balls that were nicked behind. Before the innings the pundits said that the Australian seamers would see the English length and line to get the maximum out of the wicket and replicate it with even greater threat. What no one expected was that the Australian seamers would look good, but totally fail to present a consistent threat.

What was interesting was the way that Michael Clarke, seeing how England were attacking – just a single maiden was bowled in 29 overs and both Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Marsh went at 5 or more an over – seemed to be careful to shield Mitch J. He got a three over spell, then one of two overs and, after Joe Root hit him for a streaky six, did not re-appear, which was most un-Mitch-like. It may just be coincidence that rain-breaks and planned rotations ended up depriving him of a longer spell but, in conditions where he was expected to be almost unplayable, it was odd to see so little of him in the attack.

Mitch J.’s morale is known to be fragile. In the past the English crowds and the Barmy Army have got after him and his bowling has fallen apart. In 2009 he was dropped from the side after a series of increasingly erratic performances and, in 2013, was not even picked due to poor form. With an attack that has a lot of potential, but not so much experience, it would be understandable if Michael Clarke wanted to protect his most valuable asset from a 2009, or 2010/11-like decline, where a single explosive performance was followed by a serious tailing-off.

For Day 2, England know that the loss of Ian Bell before the Close has exposed the middle order. Jonny Bairstow is new at the crease and must surely be nervous after his last encounter with Australia. At parity with 7 wickets left and perfect batting conditions expected, England know that anything less than a lead of 200 would be a criminal waste. They need to bat long and try to put Australia out of the game by the end of the second day.

The aim has to be to see off the first hour and then start to accelerate. England need at least two fifties from Root, Bairstow, Buttler and Moeen, plus a couple of 30s or 40s: if they get them they will be well set. In contrast, if Australia get an early wicket they will be confident of keeping the lead well below 100 and getting right back into the game.

Mitch-watch: 3 and 5-0-20-0.

Where was Mitch?

Second Test Disaster

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

Second Test Horror Story

 

July 28^th 2015

Sometimes you are just grateful to have missed a particularly unpleasant trainwreck. I was fortunate enough to have been in an isolated part of the UK on holiday, with only intermittent Internet access.

After the unexpected win at Cardiff and the discipline and aggressivity shown by the England side, Lord’s was a return to the worst moments of the 2013/14 Ashes series. By the end of Day 1 you knew what was coming. Lose the Toss. See your opponents rack up 337-1 and, worse, know that one definite chance and at least one half-chance that would have limited the damage have been missed.

The England surrender was as predictable as it was depressing. Whereas England found nothing in the pitch, the Australian seam attack looked as if they were bowling hand-grenades in a minefield. When you are 30-4 chasing 566-8d you know that things are hopeless and, despite first innings defiance from Cook and Stokes and, to a lesser degree, Moeen Ali, Australia just needed to pick up occasional wickets, avoid a huge stand developing and think about the Follow-On.

Of course, Michael Clarke did not enforce it, reasoning that a second innings kicking, chasing leather as the lead built to inhuman proportions would crack England’s morale even more. He was right. Five front-line batsmen got into double figures but only the “swing and a giggle” Stuart Broad passed 20. It was pathetic.

Australia: 820 runs for 10 wickets. England 415 runs for 20 wickets. It was a measure of the gulf between the sides.

Now we have the crisis that we feared.

·         Adam Lyth (0 & 7) looks as if he is batting with Geoff Boycott’s stick of rhubarb.

·         Gary Ballance looks like the Ballance of the World Cup and not the world-conquering batsman of summer 2014.

·         Ian Bell (1 & 11) looks like he does not even have a stick of rhubarb for a bat. In 2013, Bell was the hero of the series; in 2015 he looks helpless.

Mitch-watch: 15, 20.1-8-53-3 and 10-3-27-3.

This was the Mitch J of 2013/14 and England could not cope with it. Which Mitch will appear for the 3^rd Test? If it is this one, the series may start to get very one-sided.

Day 4: Sad Australian Surrender

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

Day 4: Sad Australian Surrender

 

July 12^th 2015

With rain threatened for the fifth day, the simple task for Australia on Day 4 of the Test was to bat solidly, not give wickets away and either get into a position to save the draw with the help of the rain, or strike out for the win on the final day during what play was possible.

In the BBC poll at the start of play, although two-thirds of respondents thought that England would win, the number, which had started at over 70%, dropped steadily as Warner and Smith rebuilt after the early loss of Rogers. A surprising 1 in 6 respondents – 16% - felt that Australia would manage the third highest successful fourth innings chase in Test history. There is still a large minority of fans who believe in their hearts that Australia are invincible.

Eleven wins for Australia in their last sixteen Tests suggests that they are a side with some real steel. The fact that England have only won one of their last five series did not give much room for hope. However, there is another number that Australians tend to forget: in the last three Ashes series in England, Australia have won just 2 matches, have drawn 6 and lost 7. Their recent record in England is poor and the 2010/11 result went against the recent trend of each side dominating Ashes series at home. Similarly, Australia’s recent away record is poor, with heavy defeats to England, India and Pakistan.

It looks very much as if, in this Test, the Australians paid the price for a touch of arrogance. They rolled up thinking that all they had to do was say how great they are and England would turn belly-up. With very much the same side as had dominated England in 2013/14 taking the field at Cardiff, the Australians really did not think that anyone who the English could put in front of them would give them many problems. Now the Australian side know that the series is going to be a battle and perhaps are being reminded that they have not won in England since 2001.

Fans have seen this scenario once before in the not too distant past – in 1997, when they showed up, took England as a bit of a joke, had minimal preparation for the series and lost the 1^st Test. England lost the series 3-2 though against an exceptional Australian side (which the 2015 tourists are not), albeit winning the final Test to make the scoreline more respectable. Coincidentally, that was also the last time that Australia have won after falling behind in an Ashes series. A staggering statistic is that 13 of the last 15 Ashes series have been won by the side who went 1-0 up: the only exceptions are 1997 and, of course, 2005.

There have been two key moments in this Test. Two deliveries that decided the outcome. Had Brad Haddin not dropped Joe Root on 0 in the 1^st innings England would have been 43-4 and would have got nowhere near 400. The second was just before Lunch today. Moeen Ali had taken fearful punishment in his first, two over spell as the Australians marked him a threat who needed to be removed from the attack. Alistair Cook brought him back for the last over before Lunch, presumably hoping that the batsmen would allow him to bowl six dots that would get him back into the groove for the afternoon. If Cook’s orders were something like “OK Moe, keep it tight for six balls”, Moeen failed to listen because David Warner, who was looking ominously solid up to then, completely missed a straight ball and was judged LBW. Had Australia gone into Lunch at 97-1 they could well have set a really solid platform for a victory push after Lunch. As it was, Moeen was supercharged again after a difficult few months and England came out after Lunch looking for the kill. 97-1 to 106-5 in 36 balls. Match over as a contest.

One of the big stories of the match has been the rejuvenation of Moeen Ali. Apart from first innings runs, he has dismissed Warner, Smith and Clarke – not a bad trio – for match figures of 31.3-5-130-5. Not only could he play in a holding role, but he struck out the opposition’s major batsmen.

Another marginal pick for many of the England fans was Stuart Broad. He responded with match figures of 31-7-99-5 and was certainly not flattered by them. Broad opened up the Australians like a can opener on the 3^rd morning and dismissed three of the top four in the second innings. He was nowhere near fit after injury in the World Cup, but has got better and better since. England supporters rarely give Stuart Broad the credit that he deserves as a very fine bowler when fully fit.

While the Australian media have taken defeat remarkably well and have been gracious and generous with the victors, a glance at social media will show that the defeat has caused massive shockwaves and rejection among those fans who have not reacted with stunned shock. Words such as “aberration” and “lucky” have been used to explain the defeat of their heroes. It will not be long before we are talking about doctored pitches and biased umpiring again, because to many of the Australian equivalent of the Barmy Army, a defeat cannot possibly have been due to other than ridiculous amounts of luck, or to foul play. It is one of the problems of the Australian system that, at times, it finds it difficult to give credit to opponents as being worthy rivals.

The suggestion though is that the pitch at Lord's is expected to be much more to the liking of the Australian attack and the slope will aid them. This would mean England missing a trick because it would give Australia a real chance to come back immediately to 1-1, throwing away immediately the benefits of winning the 1^st Test so convincingly.

What's interesting is how before the series everything was about the incredible strength in depth of the Australian squad and how they would have to leave out players that England would die for. Serious analysts found them stronger in almost every position such that the proposed pre-series combined side was heavily weighted to Australians. To my surprise though, when I picked my Fantasy side in the ECB Fantasy Game and was comparing the English and Australian option, usually I found that the English player seemed to be a better bet in English conditions.

In fact, now it is the Australian side who have the problems and appear not to have too many genuine options. As many as four players may be under scrutiny for the 2^nd Test.

Much of the opprobrium has fallen on Brad Haddin, who is soon to be 38. His drop of Joe Root probably cost Australia the match. To drop Haddin and bring in Neville after one Test would smack of panic and that is not very Australian. However, it does look as if the Australian selectors and the Australian fans are losing patience with him.

Shane Watson too is under massive scrutiny. They wanted him to spell the quicks, particularly if the batsmen got after Lyon and to provide middle-order stability with the bat. They got neither one thing nor the other. 30 and 13 with the bat, two starts, two LBWs playing around the pad, two failed reviews. Shane Watson’s failings with LBWs and reviews are becoming a figure of fun. With the ball, 13-0-47-0 in the match was not what the selectors wanted either, especially with Starc injured and Johnson ineffective, hence Michael Clarke even turned to David Warner at one point because he did not get what he needed from Watson. Maybe Australia will bring in Mitch Marsh for Lord’s, but many Australians do not seem to rate him very highly either, despite his good form in the warm-ups. Shane Watson may keep his place due to the uncertainty about the form and staying power of the bowlers more than his batting ability but, if he does, he should not be surprised if he finds his name printed on the scorecard as S.R. LBWatson.

With Mitch Starc limping badly and still taking on a huge burden, getting him ready for Thursday will be a big job, although Australia get the extra rest day for treatment (an advantage of losing so badly). If they take a risk on him and he breaks down completely, they could lose him for the rest of the series, quite apart from handicapping their side seriously in the Test. The likely replacement would be Peter Siddle with, most likely, Mitch Johnson moving up to taking the new ball again having lost it to Starc and Hazlewood in this Test. However, we saw in 2013 that Siddle, fine bowler that is, simply doesn't pose the same level of threat as Ryan Harris or Mitch Johnson. Siddle started the 2013 series well, but faded badly and left Ryan Harris with little support. Australia could take a punt on Pat Cummins, but he is made of glass, he hasn't played so far on the tour and, with his injury record, it would be a huge risk to play him. Pat Cummins has played just 1 Test and 26 ODIs/T20s in 4 years. A total of 1 Test and 5 FC matches in a career of four and a half years says a lot about his vulnerability to injury.

Mitch J. will probably survive to play at Lord's with the selectors reasoning that (a) he's got some runs, so his confidence will be rocketing, (b) he can't bowl that badly again in the series and (c) that he could turn in a series-turning spell at any moment, probably without warning. However, if he also under-performs at Lord's his place may come under real scrutiny. Little more than 3 months short of his 34^th birthday, he knows that time is running out for him anyway as an out and out quick bowler.

Mitch-watch: 25-3-111-0, 14, 16-2-69-2 and 77.

Mitch J showed some real fight today and there was a point where the two Mitches were batting comfortably, the England attack looked toothless and the target was under 200 and coming down too rapidly for comfort. At that point Australians started to believe in miracles.  The Australian fans will point out that when Mitch J. bats well his confidence goes up and he tends to bowl well too. England fans will hope that his performances with the ball do not improve!

Day 4 to England… the margins have just got bigger day by day.
Very definitely "mae syndod Cymraeg" boyo!

Day 3: Beyond Belief

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

You see it, but you do not believe it

 

July 11^th 2015

 

Day 3 of the Test was always going to be Moving Day: the day when one side or another either staked a firm claim for the win, or the match started to peter out towards a draw.

England’s weakness has often been removing the tail and Australian fans were confident that they could exploit this and build a significant first innings lead. Australia were looking to bat at least until Tea. England wanted to be batting before Lunch.

What followed was nothing short of unbelievable. A single pushed to mid-on by Watson off Wood, second ball of the day, followed by no less than 37 dot balls. In that time, first Broad trapped Watson LBW to general hilarity, as Watson missed a straight ball and then, predictably, wasted a review and then Wood got Lyon, also LBW with an even straighter ball.

The sight of Haddin and Mitch Johnson together at the crease has reduced bowels to water and bowlers to nervous wrecks often enough. For a while there were horrible feelings of déjà vu as the two started to go after the bowlers. This Australian side though does not have the aura of invincibility of Australians past: just as the stand was getting annoying Anderson removed Haddin and Broad, Johnson in the space of four balls. Nine balls later the hobbled Starc joined them in the Pavillion. Australia had folded in the most English of manners.

Rub your eyes. Pinch yourself. No, you are not dreaming. Yes, Australia have just batted like lemmings and folded like a pack of cards. 258-4 to 308ao. Wasn’t the script that they would show the profligate English batsman how to bat on this pitch and run up a massive total?

When you are effectively 139-1 at Lunch on the 3^rd Day, even the loss of the captain is not going to provoke indigestion.

So far we have followed the pattern of 2013: England bat, the top order crumbles before a middle order recovery and the setting of an apparently inadequate total, which the Australians proceed to make look good. The second innings has been no different: 22-2, 73-3. Lyth got a start and got out – rumblings will start soon about his place despite that century unless he is careful – followed by a rollicking stand. When you start 122 ahead, putting on 97 at 5-an-over is a great way to demoralise the opposition. So far this Test England have failed to understand their ritual role as a hearthrug for marauding colonials to wipe their feet on.

By the time the clatter of wickets came it looked as if the England batsmen were set on having a good time, confident in the knowledge that there was no way back for Australia. When you see the explosive Moeen Ali playing sheet anchor to the England #10 who is hammering the ball to all parts with gay abandon, including one shot that was perilously close to landing in the River Taff, you know that the worm has turned and the supposed victims are just taking the mickey.

Everything suggests that Alistair Cook had said that he would declare overnight and had given free rein to the batsmen to enjoy themselves until the Close. Cook? Attacking instead of taking the conservative option to bat on? Next we'll be hearing that St. Francis of Assisi was a bloodthirsty axe murderer: it will be almost more plausible to Cook-watchers.

The Australian target is 412. It would be the third highest successful chase in Test history.

Even if part of Sunday is lost to the threatened rain, there is ample time to get the runs. What there is not is much belief that Australia can chase so many.

Unless England have a shocker tomorrow – and a cynic will say that they are due one – surely the match will end sometime in the evening session with an England win.

Mitch-watch: 25-3-111-0, 14 and 16-2-69-2.

Mitch J finally got his account inaugurated and bowled fast without too much luck. However, a sign of how much Australia were struggling is that fact that the hobbled Mitch Starc, who was clearly carrying an important ankle injury, bowled as many overs and with better figures. One wonders just how much damage Mitch S. has done himself carrying the attack and trying to bowl through an injury.

Day 3 to England… by a wide margin.

 

Day 2: Tales of the Unexpected; England Threaten to Dominate

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

England threaten to dominate Australia

 

July 10^th 2015

I wonder what that Australian fan on CricInfo who yesterday called England “an embarrassment”, “the worst team in Test history” and “unable to beat an Australian village U12 side” is thinking now?

At the Close of play Chris Rogers, who has kept Australia in the game with his innings today, admitted that England are on top after two days and voiced caution about the difficulty of chasing a target batting last. That last snippet should tell England fans what they wanted to hear: Moeen Ali and the Beard that is Feared are back.

England have a lot of hard work to do yet, but they have a real opening to put Australia under pressure and, possibly, even to set up a winning position. Yesterday most people seemed to think that a draw or, possibly, an Australian win were the most likely results; today a positive result is beginning to look more and more likely.

With Australia 166 behind, five wickets down and a nightwatchman in, England will be disappointed if they cannot manage a significant lead in the morning. Provided that they stick to the basics of plugging away, keeping the bowling tight and taking their catches, a lead of around 50 is possible. Of course, with Shane Watson still there, Brad Haddin to come next – was he insulted to be protected by a nightwatchman? – and the volatile Mitch Johnson with his hurt pride to come, Australia will still be convinced that they can get up to around 500. We have seen them come back so many times when we thought that England were in the ascendency. Why is today different?

Yesterday, the feeling was that England had not batted as well as they might and that they had given away wickets. Today, that was put a little in perspective: this is not the easiest wicket to bat on and England have bowled better on it. Like various of the England batsmen, several of the Australians have given away their wicket because the pitch demands caution. Australia got partnerships going, but never dominated and never managed to keep partnerships going to grind down the bowlers.

While the two Mitches topped 93mph on the speed gun, significantly faster than any of the England attack and Josh Hazlewood was also faster than Broad or Wood, the key was quality pace. Mitch Johnson’s rather sad figures showed that it does not matter how fast you bowl if your line and/or length are wrong.

The story of the day was set by the first half hour. Old England would have folded tamely for around 350, meekly surrendering the initiative. You felt that England were either going to crumble quickly, or get to around 420. What happened was gloriously unexpected: Broad and Moeen Ali attacked, putting on 52 in 68 balls. Stuart Broad stayed firm and, when he got the chance, hit hard, launching Hazlewood for a glorious six before trying to launch Nathan Lyon out of the ground and edging to Brad Haddin who, wisely, did not drop it this time. Moeen kept on attacking before, with a century there for the taking, slashed the ball straight to Shane Watson at slip who had only two options: catch it, or swallow it! Perhaps not trusting British dentists, he took the catch. Moeen should feel more annoyed about the 23 runs that he failed to get than the 77 that he did managed but is beginning to offer a real sting in England’s tail, despite the indignity of batting at 8.

At 43-3, England would have bitten your hand off to get 430 and scored at a good pace.

Of course, not everyone saw that positively. Some England supporters just felt that scoring rapidly would give Australia more time to bat England out of the game with a huge total. It makes you want to weep!!

Australia then put England’s batting effort in perspective: four fifty partnerships, but only one of them larger than 52 – the 77 of Rogers and Smith for the 2^nd wicket. Every time that Australia threatened to put together a big partnership and take control, a wicket fell. Only Chris Rogers managed to get past 38.

Before the match the cynics felt that Moeen Ali’s field would have two men on the banks of the River Taff outside the stadium and one in mid-stream for the miss-cue. Instead, perhaps emboldened by his batting (his is comfortably the highest strike rate in the match so far), although a little expensive, Moeen bowled better than he has done in months and went home with the not inconsiderable scalps of Smith and Clarke. No one did manage to attack him successfully and thoughts are now turning to what he may do with the ball on the fifth day.

Anderson, Wood and Stokes all took wickets, with Stokes’s removal of Voges just before the Close making it indisputably England’s day. Poor Stuart Broad: bowled really well, but nothing to show for it.

The mission for England on Day 3 is to remove the nightwatchman and the remaining wickets as cheaply as possible and set about building a lead. If England are batting again by Lunch, things will be looking very rosy; if Australia are still batting at Tea, the efforts of Days 1 & 2 will have been wasted.

England cannot afford a bad first session. Up to now, they have been really very good.

Mitch-watch: 25-3-111-0.

Already the talk is starting about whether or not he will survive the series. It seems incredibly premature but, in 2009, as the new sensation of Australian pace bowling, he was dropped before the end of the series. Compare Mitch J.’s figures to those of his less illustrious namesake: 24.1-4-114-5. Without Mitch Starc the Australians might well have been up the creek without a paddle.

Day 2 to England… quite clearly.

Day 1 Narrowly to Australia

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

England to Australia: this isn’t going to be a walkover

 

July 9^th 2015

  

At 44-3 on a benign, seemingly dead pitch, England fans were fearing the worst. This was every bit as awful as we imagined. “Here we go again”, said the England fans. One Australian on CricInfo called England “an embarrassment”, “the worst team in Test history” and “unable to beat an Australian village U12 side” (and that was before a ball was bowled). Where was the spirit of the new England?

Mitch Johnson was licking his lips and the retirement of Ryan Harris meant that Australia could play Mitch Starc and Josh Hazlewood who would run through the trembling Poms just as easily as in 2013/14.

This time though the script was different. If England fail to win, Brad Haddin may just have nightmares about dropping Joe Root without scoring. It was not pretty. It was about as elegant as a 15^th Century dentist pulling teeth, but Root and Ballance hung on and first stabilised the situation, before starting to push on to the tune of a partnership of 153. It may just be the worst Test half century that Gary Ballance has made, but the fact is that he made it as the fans started to suggest that he might just be the one to make way for Jonny Bairstow having looked horribly out of sorts against New Zealand.

The Australians will not have had too many nightmares about Joe Root before today. In 9 Tests against Australia he had passed 30 just three times. Admittedly one of them was an innings of 180 at Lord’s, but he had been dropped three times and should never have made it past 20 that day. However, each time he has made it past 30 he has made a 50: in fact, his lowest score after getting past 30 is 68. Australia committed the cardinal sin of missing him early and paid to the tune of 134 runs scored at a good clip.

Both England and Australia know that it should have been far worse. At 280-4 after 72 overs with Root and Stokes well set there a chance of scoring 500 and batting Australia out of the game. Australia roared back removing both in quick succession only to see Jos Buttler and the increasingly confident looking Moeen Ali add 50 in 57 balls. Had the pair made it to the Close it would, on balance, have been England’s day. Buttler though was victim of a soft dismissal just before the Close and exposed Stuart Broad to the still new ball. Glory be though, Broad stayed in line, defended his stumps and held firm despite the ball flying around his ears a lot. The Australians “love” Stuart Broad and if they can be persuaded to waste their energies and the new ball testing out his ability to duck, he will have done his job. Broad, for his part, has scored vital 50s against Australia and needs to stay with Moeen as long as possible tomorrow.

If England can get 380, they will be well satisfied. If it can be stretched to 400, Australia will have the pressure of knowing that, to make good their boasts, they will need a huge first innings score and, even then, would face the potential threat of Moeen on a responsive pitch on the last day.

Australia may yet make the England score look pathetically inadequate but, at least they are going to have to work for their win and know that, in this Test, they are in a brawl. Many England fans scarred by 2013/14 (and others, like me, by series after series between 1989 and 2003), will settle for that. It is vital for England that they put in a strong performance in this Test and test some of the potential cracks in the Australian side.

Oh yes. Mitch-watch: 20-2-87-0.

Those who thought that Mitch Johnson would be a lesser threat without Ryan Harris to support him are looking at those figures with interest. It is early days yet, but it has not been the rout that Mitch Johnson and many of his countrymen were expecting.

Day 1 to Australia… but narrowly.

Let Battle Commence!

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

The End of the Phony War

 

July 8^th 2015

  

It is noticeable how the mood among England supporters has changed in the last few months. Three months ago almost no one gave tuppence for England’s chances: most supporters and pundits seemed to think that the best that England could aspire to would be to avoid the utter humiliation of a whitewash, probably with the help of the weather. Certainly there is a segment in Australian fandom that believes with all its heart that the defeat in 2013 was down to England’s diabolical luck with the weather, biased umpiring and doctored pitches; I have spoken to Australian fans utterly convinced that 4-0 to Australia would have been a far fairer reflection of the balance of play in that series. Lest we forget, it was only a controversial decision to go off for bad light that saved Australia from a 4-0 defeat after both sides hammered runs mercilessly on that extraordinary final day at The Oval.

There are many echoes of 2009. England are under a new coach having sacked Peter Moores just before the series (in 2009 he was sacked just before the tour of the Caribbean, in 2015 he was sacked just after). In 2009 England lost the series to the West Indies unexpectedly under a new captain and interim coach; in 2015 they could only draw against, arguably, a weaker West Indian side. In 2009 the relief was provided by defeating the West Indies in the return series; in 2015 it has been a shared Test series, played in rollicking fashion against New Zealand (many pundits expected England to lose), followed by the most extraordinary series of limited overs matches that anyone can remember for many a year. Not only did England deservedly beat the World Cup Finalists, but then won the T20 for good measure. It was not just the manner in which huge scores were posted at breakneck pace, it was the fact that England managed to win more than once from decidedly unpromising positions where they would have been expected to fold meekly.

And, of course, the biggest parallel: in 2009 the series started in Cardiff, the scene of today’s opening Test, after a gap of several years (no Cardiff Test in 2013). Monty Panesar is long gone and, sadly, looks to be in danger of not having a county at the end of the season, with Essex losing patience with him and various vague announcements that he is not being considered for selection due to unspecified issues.

With the spin debate in full flow how England could do with Monty now! The Moeen Ali bandwagon started to grind to a halt in the Caribbean. Up until then he had done a fine job – unexpectedly for many – in England and then on tour in the winter. Injury and being rushed back with almost no bowling though has left his a shadow of his former self. Despite occasional flashes of the beard that is feared returning to form, there is a fear that the Australians will attack him and force him out of the attack quickly. Adil Rashid’s success in the ODIs has not convinced his many doubters – top of the list seemingly being Alistair Cook and, although he is in the squad, almost no one expects him to play. Most people seem to think that Moeen Ali will get at least two Tests before anyone thinks seriously of a change; even if a change is made, it’s not clear that it will not be to go with an all-pace attack, perhaps with some short spells from Joe Root. Romantics like myself see Adil Rashid perhaps coming in for the 3^rd Test. Certainly New Zealand did go after him and he came back well; of course that is no guarantee that he will do the same in a Test match, but there is a growing belief after Adil Rashid’s good contributions with the bat, even in very difficult situations, that he is as good an option with the bat and a more attacking one with the ball who is more likely to remove 9, 10, Jack quickly.

For England the greatest news is the sudden retirement of Ryan Harris just before the Test series. We knew that Ryan Harris has been a great fighter against an injury-ravaged body and it has been obvious since 2013 that he was probably just one injury from retirement. That injury has now come and England will heave a double sigh of relief. In 2013, if Ryan Harris had had more effective support, England would not have recovered from perilous positions in so many matches to put up winning totals. The difference between a new ball attack of Harris and Siddle in 2013 and Harris and Johnson in 2013/14 was night and day: there was no relief. Now, Mitch Johnson will come back to England where he has rarely performed, with an unproven partner at the other end. There is so much talk of Mitchell Starc, but not much outside white-ball cricket. Pat Cummins is hyped to the rafters in Australia, but has played just one Test and a handful of First Class matches and Josh Hazlewood is also very much unproven in England. The attack may be as devastating as the Australians say that it will be, but even they must wonder in the back of their minds how Mitch Johnson will go without the wholehearted Rhino at the other end.

Australia are not without other issues. There is always a doubt how long Michael Clarke’s back will hold out: he is another player probably just one injury from retirement. Nathan Lyon was harshly treated in the warm-up matches, although Australia won both comfortably and there are at least as many doubts about him as about Moeen Ali. Australia also have a leg-spinner, Fawad, who would be a little bit of a gamble to select. Other players – Rogers, Haddin – are on the verge of retirement and have doubts about their form, while Voges, Starc and Hazlewood are largely untested at this level.

If England are not without their issues – Bell, Ballance and Moeen being the most pressing – Australia are not quite the invincible superheroes that they are made out to be.

My own prediction is that if England avoid defeat at Cardiff, they may just sneak the series 2-1. If, instead, Australia win big at Cardiff, another rout is in the offing.