Cook On The Rocks

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Alistair Cook’s Challenge

 

November 30^th 2013

 

 

Alistair Cook is facing arguably his biggest captaincy crisis as a tour that England undertook with great optimism, looks to be falling apart. The 1^st Test has been lost by a huge margin, with England showing little taste for facing high pace. The Australians are attempting aggressively to destabilise England with inadequate practice and the sort of in your face aggression that they hated receiving from England. What is worse, England are faced with a squad where too many batsmen are out of form and the possible replacements are so inexperienced that they would be a huge risk, while the bowling attack is becoming too one-dimensional.

The game at Alice Springs has solved no problems. Neither Finn nor Rankin have had a good game. The overwhelming opinion is that both are unselectable for a Test.

Steve Finn, who made such an impact three years ago, has lost his way, totally, in the way that Jimmy Anderson did at the same age. Jimmy Anderson though, after a couple of wilderness years, came back better than ever. Steve Finn desperately needs a year of county cricket to go back and sort himself out. However, right now I am not even sure that he would make an impact in county cricket. It may take him two years to come back as a wicket-taking bowler.

The name Boyd Rankin has inspired respect on the county circuit for years, but not fear. Sometimes it is difficult to tell if someone who is a really good county bowler has that X-factor that makes him a Test match bowler. In the case of Boyd Rankin I have always had my doubts. Better judges than me saw him as a likely vital part of the attack but, I see him as a Test third or fourth seamer at best. Against an Australian side that is feeling increasingly confident and, backed up by a hostile public, senses blood and will attack any weakness, you cannot play a bowler who you cannot depend on.

That reduces Alistair Cook’s options. He can continue with Chris Tremlett, who took 4-120 in the 1^st Test and was economical in the first innings, but more expensive in the second. Despite the four wickets, he looked as if he would struggle to be a threat on better surfaces (although it is true that the Gabba pitch looked like a road and the commentators were at a loss to explain the low scoring). He could go for Ben Stokes as a batsman who can bowl, but Stokes is unlikely to be a genuine wicket-taking bowler at this level, at least at the moment and has been expensive so far on the tour. Stokes would also be batting too high even at seven.

Then, there are the two left-field picks. The obvious one is Tim Bresnan. He got through the three day game against Queensland 2^nd XI, bowling 26 overs, having two innings with the bat, one of them a longish one. He has been bowling at full pace for a while in the nets and looks ready. He also gave Australia the holy terrors both in 2010/11 and last summer by bowling long containing spells and taking vital wickets. Tim Bresnan is the sort of cricketer who will walk through a brick wall for you and has more than a hint of Ian Botham about him, although not such a talented cricketer. There are plenty of parallels between them, in physical appearance, pace and need to show their stamina. There are also a history of similar injury problems. Tim Bresnan may never score a Test century, although he has the talent to if he ever finds himself in the right place at the right time, but he is happy to lead a fightback when one is needed.

The other side of this is that a gentle three-day game against modest opposition is not exactly the greatest preparation for a five-day Test in a cauldron of hate. Can Tim Bresnan bowl 20 overs in a day and then come back the next day and bowl ten more? How match fit and sharp is he?

Another option is to play on a perceived Australian weakness and play Monty Panesar in a five-man attack. Andy Flower does not like to do this without a genuine all-rounder and with Matt Prior low on form and confidence, dropping a batsman would be a huge risk. However, there is no question that Monty and Graeme Swann bowl well together and Australia do not play quality spin well, seeing so little of it for years now in their Domestic game.

In this scenario, Matt Prior (or, conceivably, Jonny Bairstow) would bat at 6, with Broad, Bresnan, Swann, Anderson and Monty making up the tail.

However, Andy Flower is not given to panic reactions to defeat and rarely makes more than one unenforced change to a side. It would also give a long tail, with runs needed from Stuart Broad.

In 2010/11, England were hammered at Perth and looked lucky to escape defeat at Brisbane, despite the big second innings score. That series ended with two innings victories. Can Alistair Cook engineer a turnaround as surprising as that one this time? Unlike Andrew Strauss, who was a clever strategist and very much underrated as a skilled captain, Alistair Cook is more inclined to react to events rather than setting the agenda. Can he show himself capable of leading from the front? Australia are full of confidence, but that confidence is likely to be fragile – a defeat at Adelaide could really rock them back on their heels, but how to engineer it?

Bresnanwatch Continues

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Enter Tim Bresnan

 

November 28^th 2013

 

 

The chances of Tim Bresnan making what for many, would be a shock return to England colours for the 2^nd Test have just increased again. The aim of playing him against Queensland 2^nd XI was to assess his readiness for Tests. By playing him in the England Performance Programme game he gets a four day match against arguably stronger opposition – Queensland 2nds are roughly equivalent to a 2^nd Division English county – than he would get at Alice Springs in the two day game. If he lasts three days without reaction, he should last a five day Test (Australian fans might argue that there will not be many games going into a fifth day in this series). In theory, as the EPP game will end tomorrow, with the EPP side well-placed to win, Tim Bresnan could even take part in the second day of the game in Alice Springs too if the Queensland match finishes quickly and England are batting on the first day in Alice Springs.

Although the EPP side bowled out Queensland 2^nd XI cheaply and could have enforced the follow-on, they chose to bat again, 220 ahead and stretched the lead to 376 by the Close. Another overnight declaration should see Tim Bresnan get another good workout, even if the batting is not especially challenging. With 4-31, the best figures for the EPP side and a wicket third ball, he is showing that he is getting match fit and is ready for bigger tests after reportedly bowling at full pace in the nets.

However, this is not exactly great opposition. Joe Burns carried his bat for 97 in a total of 156 and only one other batsman passed 7. Interestingly, Tim Bresnan was promoted to bat at 4 in the second innings and managed a 5-ball duck, which will probably not dismay him too badly, while Sam Robson, batting at 7, added 35 not out to his 102 Retired Out in the first innings. However, the Queensland 2nds new ball and first change attack had exactly two First Class matches between them so, Ryan Harris and Mitch Johnson they were not.

Parallels With 2006/07?

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Australia going for the throat

 

November 27^th 2013

 
 

Cricket fans tend to have notoriously short memories. England fans like to remember that, after nearly two decades of extreme pain at Australian hands between 1989 and 2005, they have won four of the last five Ashes series. Selective memory though tends to edit out the 2006/07 series when England went to Australia as holders, confident of giving a good account of themselves. Despite a heavy defeat in the 1^st Test – by 277 runs, with Australia running up 602-9d and 202-1d – the 2^nd Test started so differently. When England declared on 551-6 they could little have imagined that defeat was even a possibility, let alone a 5-0 series whitewash. Glenn McGrath had 0-107, Shane Warne 1-167 and were treated with such contempt by Pietersen and Collingwood that many England fans thought that they had both gone on for one series too many and should have retired when the going was good. Adelaide seemed to be their personal Waterloo.

With Australia 65-3 in reply, it seemed as if there was a real chance of making the series 1-1. Australia recovered and managed to get close to parity, but Strauss and Bell saw out the remaining time calmly on Day 4 and, at 59-1 and a lead of 98 at the Close, the question was one of whether or not Andrew Strauss would shake off his cautious image and go after an aggressive declaration he next morning.

When Strauss and Bell added just 10 runs in 11 overs next morning, the question was answered. Safety first! The danger was that a clatter of wickets could leave England with only a small lead and still plenty of time in the day and that is what happened. 69-1 became 77-5 and then 94-6, with only the tail left to support Paul Collingwood. When the last wicket fell on the stroke of Tea England were probably only 30 runs or 30 minutes short of safety. The strokeless paralysis that led England to crawl along at well under 2-an-over, allowed Australia just enough time for a post-Tea dash to the victory that broke English resistance in the series and made the final, 5-0 result, inevitable.

There are clear parallels with 2006/07 in the current series. We have an Australian side that is hurting badly and that is determined to get revenge. It is also feeling aggressive and mean: they feel that they have been on the receiving end of England aggression for too long and are going to give back as good as they have got and more. The aim is to humiliate their opponents, chew them up and spit them out.

No one has said anything about winning and winning big, but it is obvious that Australia want to repeat that 5-0 win from 2006/07 and are going to use any legal means to get it.

If anyone thought that the policy of agreeing to play a credible XI against the tourists and then withdrawing the best players at the last minute until the side that actually takes the field is so weakened as to not provide serious practice would end, think again. Not only have England been sent to Alice Springs for their last non-international match of the tour, but the ACB has withdrawn two of the very few experienced players in the side to play England. What remains is little more than a schoolboy side. The argument is that Australia did not receive credible opposition last summer, so they are damned if they will give England any better. It is shades of India ensuring last winter that England not play any spinners in the warm-ups and that the pitches for those games were green and seaming. It is war on all fronts!

Las winter England lost the 1^st Test badly, but still conquered the Indian spinners and won the series, with the last three Tests getting increasingly one-sided. However, India did not show the incredible ruthlessness and have never matched the aggression of sides like Australia. There is no question that Australia are setting out to break certain key players in a way that India would never attempt.

A strong England performance and, preferably a win is essential at Adelaide. Were England to go 2-0 down, another 5-0 result will be likely.

With the loss of Jonathon Trott, England have to re-organise, quite apart from looking at the balance of the side. They certainly do need to think about the balance of the side again. The most likely thing is that Chris Tremlett will keep his place, but there is always a case to go for the faster, more aggressive Rankin or Finn. Finn, in particular, could win or lose a Test in a session. However, with the Australians repeating their 2010/11 policy of trying to hit Graeme Swann out of the attack, England need a bowler who offers tightness and control so that Broad and Anderson can be rested and that is a job that Tremlett did do largely successfully.

However, the second problem links to the first. With the spare opener already in the side and Gary Ballance having a nightmare tour so far, the most likely option is for Joe Root to move back up the order. Who though should replace him at six? Jonny Bairstow is an obvious candidate, despite doubts about him at this level. There is a suggestion though that Ben Stokes could be brought in as a fifth bowler and middle order bat, but he would be too high at #6 and, with Matt Prior’s crisis of form, makes his promotion in the order a huge risk. Stoke’s bowling too is unlikely to be a major wicket-taking option at present.

However, possibly even more significant is what is going on across Australia, in Queensland, where the England Performance Programme squad are playing Queensland 2^nd XI. Sam Robson hit a century and Tim Bresnan 57 in his return to cricket. It is not impossible that a strong performance by Bresnan in this game could see him return straight back to the England side, also adding some bite to the tail, quite apart from his skill with the ball, making speculation about Tremlett’s place irrelevant. His performance with the ball on Day 2 will be closely watched although, thinking back to 2012, no one will want to rush him back and face yet another injury relapse . Similarly, Sam Robson’s progress and form offer an alternative solution to the problem of the extra batsman: it is not impossible that he may leapfrog Stokes and Ballance into the Test side later in the series if he can make a solid case with the EPP side.

Jonathon Trott

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Getting Nasty

 

November 25^th 2013

 

 

There is a particularly unpleasant undercurrent to this series and the news that Jonathon Trott, who was the target of some fairly nasty jibes and severely criticised even by many England fans, has had to return home with a “stress-related illness” has come as an unpleasant shock. There were conversations on the Internet this morning as to whether or not David Warner might not regret some of his comments in the light of developments – Trott has, apparently, been ill from some time and trying to battle through it – with the majority view being that Warner would not feel any guilt. To his credit, Warner, who seems to be getting into scrapes again and again, however hard he tries to stay out of trouble, has accepted that perhaps he went too far. The media have been careful to stress that Warner’s comments were not the reason why Trott went home – he was struggling long before – but one has to wonder how he felt to be taunted when fighting and losing to a crippling problem.

It is obvious that Alistair Cook was aware of the issues with his colleague and kept quiet. His comments in the press conference where he discussed the remarks suddenly take on a whole new significance.

What to make though of Michael Clarke being picking up by a stump microphone threatening Jimmy Anderson with a broken arm? Cricket Australia is furious, not with the comment, but that the broadcaster dared to let the public hear it. The defence is that, in a comment *not* picked up on the stump microphone, Jimmy Anderson threatened to punch debutant George Bailey. Shane Warne lauds Clarke’s action in standing up for his player. One wonders what the umpires are there for? Someone is going to end up getting seriously hurt unless they can keep order and both captains support them in stamping out thuggish behaviour. Aggression is one thing, threats of violence are another. There is a suspicion though that Australians love to hand out verbal abuse, but are less than happy to receive it back and, when on top, expect their observations to be received in silence.

There is no question that Australia feel that they were the victims last summer. The fuss over Stuart Broad’s cheating (how many Australians walk when they know that they have hit the ball?) The belief that DRS was loaded against them, the umpires were (intentionally or not) biased against Australia (some fans have accused one umpire of being openly “anti-Australia”), the sensation that the weather conspired against them, that they were deliberately denied meaningful practice and that marginal decisions systematically went against them, has led to a demand for revenge.

Many Australian fans genuinely believe that they were cheated out of a series victory – and they use the word “cheated” in its most pejorative sense. They feel that they have a blank cheque to right past wrongs and that their opponents have it coming. “Make him want to cry” was the call over Stuart Broad and there is no question that the fans have taken the call to heart: the atmosphere is more hostile than it has been in many years.

Stress in sport tends to be met with derision and the suggestion that the victim is a pampered little darling who cannot cope with little setbacks. Call it a nervous breakdown, because that is what it is really and maybe people would be more understanding. We treat soldiers suffering with post-traumatic stress disorder as heroes, why should sportsmen be treated as pariahs for cracking under stress? How many people would condemn a colleague at work who has a nervous breakdown as being unfit for purpose and unworthy of his job? When you have seen a colleague in this state, you tend to change your views and start to be more understanding.

Marcus Trescothick was the first high-profile player to break cover. It ended his international career: despite extensive help, he was unable to cope with touring again. The descriptions of his low points in the dressing room are distressing. Matthew Hoggard was later revealed to have been dropped from the England side for far more reason than just a single, bad Test, but not a word was said in public about the real reasons until he was ready to say it. Other players in the past have even taken their own lives in the end – Harold Gimblett was a classic case, it is not impossible that Peter Roebuck was another (his struggles against depression were chronicled by himself).

Hopefully Jonathon Trott will be back. The England set-up will give him the best help available but, history suggests that his chances of coming back are no better than 50-50. For now, we can just wish him well and hope that he gets over his immediate problems.

Well Played Australia

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

First Blood to Australia

 

November 24^th 2013

 

First of all: well played Australia. They won more convincingly than anyone could ever have imagined before the series started. There are no excuses and there can be no excuses.

Second: Mitch Johnson was a revelation. We knew how dangerous Ryan Harris was but, it is only with another genuinely threatening bowler to support him at the other end that he has been able to win a game. Mitch Johnson was just as fast and nasty as we had been promised.

Third: save for that session and a half when England had Australia 130-6 on the first day, England were poor. It is shades of the UAE. In the 1^st Test against Pakistan England let Pakistan take control with a big opening partnership that proved to be the difference between a close match and a big defeat; here the game got away from England when Haddin and Johnson combined for a big partnership – from then on England were always chasing the game.

There are few positives for England apart from the form of Stuart Broad with his 8-136 in the match. Apart from 65 from Cook and 40 from Carberry, no one else passed 32 for England in the match. Twice, England were building platforms (at 82-2 in the first innings and 130-3 in the second, you would not expect to see totals of 136 and 179) and twice they collapsed in a heap.

Right now the reaction is about what you would expect. The “drop everyone” reaction has started, but players such as Trott, Root, Prior and Swann have not become poor players overnight. They have fine career records and, even if they have some issues right now, they need a vote of confidence, not a knee-jerk reaction.

Before this match you could imagine England playing all the reserves at Alice Springs – has any side ever had to endure a more meaningless and useless preparation match than this one? Now it is possible that we may see several of the Test team being given a chance to get middle time and some confidence, albeit against a schoolboy side.

Let's Not Panic Yet

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Still Plenty of Reasons not to Panic

 

November 23^rd 2013

 
 

It is not hard to feel shell-shocked if you are an England fan, but a long chat with Dave Bracegirdle, the BBC’s radio commentator for Nottinghamshire and a really nice guy to work with, has made me feel a lot better.

Last summer, Australia suffered from the fact that, although Ryan Harris was outstanding, he had so little support that England escaped time and again from difficult positions because Harris simply could not bowl for ever: see him off and prosper was the England theme to the series. Here, he has had brilliant support from Mitch Johnson, but Johnson has demonstrated time and again that he struggles to sustain good form even from one Test to another, let alone for a whole series. Like me, Dave Bracegirdle thinks that England will come good.

One thing that you could not help but notice in last Summer’s Ashes series was that England only seemed to start to play at 100% until they felt threatened by Australia. New Zealand had earned our respect in the winter and were dealt with in summary fashion, but Australia just did not seem to show the same level of threat. However, the way that England raised its game at Chester-le-Street and at The Oval showed that there was so much more in the tank that would come out, when needed. At Chester-le-Street Australia looked set to win and bring the series back to life until England stirred and suddenly the balance changed. At The Oval, Alistair Cook took advantage of a desperate Michael Clarke to come within a couple of overs of a stunning rope-a-dope win.

The fact that England have had a dreadful first innings to their away series for several years now has been much commented. However, England have also shown a capability to fight back that made the 3-0 defeat in the UAE even more surprising. After three days of the series in India last winter England were following-on, 330 behind. After a good start from Cook and Compton, a collapse to 199-5 soon after lunch made a four day defeat seem a formality. In fact. England took the match well into the afternoon session of the fifth day and India were wondering at one point, when England went ahead, still only five wickets down, if England would even manage to escape with a draw. Even though England lost that Test and, in truth, the Indians must have been getting seriously worried until Ojha took Matt Prior with a return catch, from that point the series became totally one-sided.

This was also a feature of the Duncan Fletcher years. Critics felt that England were playing with one hand tied behind their back by starting series slowly but, Duncan Fletcher and Andy Flower after him, realised that, in a series of four or five Tests, it is no use peaking in the first match. The problem came when the first Test of a series was lost, rather than drawn and the fightback never came. Duncan Fletcher’s Waterloo was the 2006/07 Ashes where the loss of the 1^st Test was followed by a wonderful fightback at Adelaide until the famous freeze on the final morning.

A feature of England fightbacks has been to come good with the match lost. It happened against India in that 1^st Test in 2012/13. It happened against South Africa in the 3^rd Test in 2012 – South Africa were close to panic as the England tail came closer and closer to a target that seemed impossible before falling agonisingly short – that match set England up for the victory in India. It happened at the Gabba in 2010/11. And, looking further back, it happened at Cardiff in 2009: Australia should have wrapped the match up with plenty to spare and were not best pleased when they did not.

Australia have, for at least five years, struggled to close out matches and series that they appeared to have won. At home to New Zealand in 2011/12 they won the 1^st Test by 9 wickets, having just failed to force the innings defeat in a match that they had dominated from start to finish. Despite bowling out New Zealand for 150 half way through the first afternoon, Australia LOST the Test and the series ended 1-1.

Almost every series some fool comes out with the hackneyed old saw: “one swallow does not a summer make” to justify some kind of fatuous comment. In Australia’s case, “one win will not a summer make”. They have to show that they can sustain an effort for more than five days.

It is not time to panic. There is plenty left to play for in this series still.

Dear Brisbane Courier Mail (II)

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Dear Brisbane Courier Mail (II)…

 

November 22^nd 2013

 

 

… sorry I spoke!

 

Last summer we learnt two important things:

      1.       Never judge a match position and even less a series after the first day.

2.       Every single Test was dominated by the side that won the toss.

Yesterday, wise old heads – and you do not get much wiser than Geoff Boycott – said that we should not judge the match position until we saw how England had batted on the same pitch. It is amazing how often people make instant judgements without waiting to see how the match situation looks after both sides have batted.

Initially things went right to plan. The last two wickets fell quickly, although not as quickly as England might have hoped, with Stuart Broad adding a sixth wicket. Australia fell short of the 300 that one felt was the minimum that they needed. Then Michael Carberry got in and, at 82-2, with Kevin Pietersen also getting set, even if England were not on top, things looked promising. Less than ten overs later England were in real danger of not saving the follow on target of 96. It was left to Chris Tremlett to get England past that mark with an awkward fend that could easily have gone to Brad Haddin. Even with Stuart Broad showing some defiance, making second top score, Australia had a more than handy lead of 159, which has swollen alarmingly by the Close.

The more romantic fans will remember that England gave up a 221 run first innings lead in Brisbane in 2010 before scoring 517-1 in the second innings and setting the basis for a massive series victory. Five of the Australian side, including Peter Siddle, who was the Australian hat-trick hero in the England first innings and eight of the England side were in that epic match. This match though is moving even faster. After two days, Brisbane 2010 was still quite even with Australia 220-5 in reply to England’s 260. Then, it was the third day that went catastrophically wrong for England, with big hundreds for Hussey and Haddin in a 307 run stand.

Ryan Harris was as good as the Ryan Harris in England but, on this occasion, he had support. Mitch Johnson, despite an erratic start, was the frightening Mitch Johnson of India. The weak support bowling that had stopped Australia from taking advantage of good starts in England was replaced with an angry and vengeful Mitch Johnson who ensured that Ryan Harris’s efforts were not wasted.

The Australians are, logically, cock-a-hoop, having done England with outright aggression and showing that the pre-series talk was not just talk. Now they need to finish things off. They have been poor at doing that for five years now. Shell-shocked England will wonder though what Andy Flower can offer to stem the tide the way that they did in 2010.

A Big Vote Of Thanks To The Brisbane Courier Mail

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Dear Brisbane Courier Mail…

 

November 21^st 2013

 

 

… keep riling Stuart Broad; it worked really well for us today.

In the lead-up to the 1st Test the Brisbane Courier Mail has made a name – of sorts – for itself, by subjecting the England team and, in particular, Stuart Broad, to the sort of abuse rarely seen even in the worst days of the British “popular” press. A few years ago this sort of tactic was part of the regular tactics used in Australia to subject the opposition and particularly the English, to mental disintegration as it was termed. The idea was to turn them into a defeated, helpless rabble before the cricket even started. Sadly, all too often, it worked.

However, times have changed. The England side is no longer a weak, poorly managed and ill-prepared rabble and the Australian side is no longer strong. The Australian tactic has been to portray the defeat last summer as an aberration caused by a mixture of bad luck and biased umpiring and to point out that they side is on the up and up, stable and in magnificent form and that England are an ageing, spent force, with the majority of the side out of form and in danger of losing their places and no reserve strength to speak of. Once again, spin has been economical with the facts: the Australian side in the first Test is actually significantly older than the England side, but far less experienced (when your main strike bowler has the third highest Test run aggregate in the squad, you know that you have an issue).

In contrast, England have just got on quietly with their preparations. Australian fans have suggested that any form shown in the games to date is irrelevant as England have played third-rate opposition (this from a side that has whinged constantly about only playing cherry-picked second division opposition last summer – it did not, two of its three games were against consistently strong 1^st Division sides and the third against a side just relegated!!) However, as some wise old heads had warned it would, the Australian performances on batting paradises in India have been allowed to influence selection for the Tests. The result was the Australia went into the match as firm favourites with the bookmakers and with enormous pressure on themselves to back up their aggressive words with a performance that would push England straight onto the back foot.

The result was almost inevitable. England did what had been telegraphed for days. Despite showing almost no form in the preparation matches, Chris Tremlett was picked as third seamer. The idea was that he should keep things tight and allow the rest of the bowlers to attack at the other end in short spells. Not only did he do his job to perfection, allowing little over two and a half runs per over, he also removed the dangerous Steve Smith just when he and Haddin seemed to be steadying the ship a little.

If the editor of the Brisbane Courier Mail had consulted the England team psychologist, he would have learnt that Stuart Broad thrives on abuse. At 71-1 just before lunch, Australia seemed to have weathered the early loss of Chris Rogers and, on a perfect pitch and a warm day, looked set to pile on the runs. Stuart Broad removed Shane Watson who, to his credit, did not review the comfortable slip catch to Graeme Swann and, with two more wickets just after lunch, 71-1 became 83-4 and familiar trouble for the Australians.

The Courier Mail can at least point to the fact that Stuart Broad was comfortably the most expensive of England’s bowlers, going for significantly over 3 and over, but 5-65 has made a huge dent in Australia’s chances of dictating in this Test. A vote of thanks to the Brisbane Courier Mail: please keep riling Stuart Broad, it worked well for us today.

Although the kidology is continuing, with Mitch Johnson claiming that Australia are well ahead of the game and suggesting that Australia believe that they have England where they want them, most experts thought that Australia should convert winning the toss into a score well over 400. In truth, there was little swing and little seam movement and England will be bitterly disappointed if they do not manage a useful first innings lead. Whereas Australia only passed 300 twice last summer, England did it six times and will hope to maintain that advantage by knocking over the last two wickets quickly and then batting long and deep.

The Courier Mail should be warned, having also subjected Kevin Pietersen to some pretty unpleasant abuse, that he is another player who thrives on it.

England fans though will remember some less than convincing batting at times last summer and will be understandably wanting to see them bat a great deal than Australia have before making extravagant claims about the destination of the match.

Time To Trust Andy Flower's Judgement

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Two Days to Go

 

November 18^th 2013

 

With just two days to the start of the Test series, the dubious weather forecast has had the bookies shifting the draw to be favourite. The odds on an England win are increasing by the day, reflecting doubts about the side and its preparation.

Various sources are suggesting that despite only obtaining one, expensive wicket so far, Chris Tremlett will be the third seamer on Thursday. This seems to be based on him clicking through the gears in the nets, despite only registering low ‘80s (or slower) in his two games so far on tour. If Tremlett does get the nod it would be an extraordinary comeback after a series of serious injuries. It would also cause severe apoplexy in many fans who saw how Chris Tremlett was not always able to hold a place in the struggling Surrey attack last season. Many fans think that Graeme Onions has been hard done by and that county form counts for little with the selectors; this would not do much to change their minds.

For what it is worth, Graeme Onions went to India and New Zealand and had a nightmare winter. He played just one game on each tour and was treated with such contempt by the batsmen both times that the selectors may feel that, whatever his success on juicy English pitches, he has lost the zip that he would need to be effective at Test level.

What fans tend to forget is that the selectors have not made many bad calls over the last few years. There have not been many picks that were based on whim and that have proved to be a disaster, so the critics should hold fire until they see the results. Not too many people would have predicted after England’s slow start at Brisbane in 2010, which had the critics raining fire and brimstone on the selectors, that the game would end with England utterly dominating the Australian attack and that they would carry that form into the following Test.

On paper England are the much better side. Matches are not played on paper, that is why Andy Flower’s famous eye for detail in preparation comes in: he will have done everything humanly possible to ensure that England’s advantages are multiplied as much as possible on the field of play and the problems are resolved. Let’s give him a vote of confidence and, whoever he decides should step out on the hallowed Gabba turf is probably the best man for the job, even if we may not understand his reasoning at the time.

Australia Start In The Unaccustomed Role Of Favourites

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Australia in the Unaccustomed Role of Favourites

 

November 17^th 2013

 

It is always interesting to see how the betting market moves before a Test because the bookies rarely lose money on anything. A week ago England were narrow favourites in the market, with an Australian win a close second option. As of today, the odds offered on an England win have gone out and those on Australia have narrowed, so that Australia are warm favourites to win at Brisbane, with a draw and an England win offered at the same odds. It looks very much as if the Australians are, again, winning the spin war off the pitch.

Australia are spinning, successfully, that they are going into the series with a settled side, all of whom are in good form, while England are unsettled and have serious issues both in batting and bowling.

Given that Australia have lost three of their last four series, with a record of P11, W0, D3, L8 between these three series against strong opposition, it is a bold move to back themselves as the form side, even if they ended the series in England better than they had started it (and, even then, came close to losing at The Oval, as England were on the point of chasing down what looked like an impossible target). In between, there was the whitewash of a Sri Lankan side in severe decline, who have never won a Test in Australia; that though barely papers over the cracks.

Australia will start the Brisbane Test with a suspect bowling attack that will depend on Ryan Harris to stay fit and Mitch Johnson to find his range, while Peter Siddle, who faded badly through the summer, will have a lot of donkey work to do. It looks highly uncertain whether or not Australia will be able to count on the bowling of Shane Watson to spell their pace bowlers and, a pitch that favours Nathan Lyon, will also favour Graeme Swann. It is not impossible that Australia may play James Faulkner to give an extra bowling option without weakening the batting. Faulkner had some success at The Oval as England hit out trying to set up a declaration to allow a run chase, but is nowhere near the class of Tim Bresnan as a third or fourth seamer, so it will be interesting to see how he fares in a more normal match.

The Australian batting has also been shuffled around a great deal and will change once again from the side and order that played at The Oval. George Bailey will debut Bailey is a batsman with a big reputation who has come through the limited overs side, following the David Warner route. There are the usual questions about Michael Clarke’s fitness: how long he will continue to battle his back problems remains to be seen; it is tough to wake up day after day in pain after playing. Michael Clarke’s problems are similar to those of Michael Atherton who, in his autobiography “Opening Up”, describes vividly the daily misery of combining top-level sport with a degenerative back condition.

Australia will offer an interesting mix of veterans (Haddin and Rogers are both past their 36^th birthday and Ryan Harris is at, what for a genuine quick bowler, is the advanced age of 34) and relative youngsters (Faulkner is 23 and, Steve Smith, who seems to have been around forever, is only 24). Most of the side though is in the range from 26 to 32 at which cricketers are normally in their prime.

Remarkably, for a side that has not beaten quality opposition since November 2011, it seems that Australia’s biggest danger going into the series is overconfidence. That is quite an achievement, but there seems no doubt that Darren Lehmann is building a side that may need just one win to start a winning habit. However, after so many near misses and “we would have won if..”, getting that first win may be the hardest part.

[Update] Since sharing the series 1-1 against South Africa in November 2011, Australia have lost 4-0 to India home and away, 1-0 to South Africa at home and 3-0 to England away. That is 12 defeats and just 3 draws against strong opposition. Their only successes were a 1-1 draw at home against New Zealand and the 3-0 home win against Sri Lanka.

England's Problems Are Nice Ones To Have

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

The Pieces are Falling Into Place for England

 

November 16^th 2013

 

What a change a few months make. Last spring the Australians were bullish and begging England to select Tim Bresnan as the perceived weak link in the England side, which they could take advantage of to win back the Ashes; now Tim Bresnan’s absence, even temporary, is being presented as a terrible disaster for England’s plans. The latest game has led to very different readings by England and Australian fans. For the Australians it is a meaningless result against weak opposition by an England side that has little idea what its best eleven is and which is severely underprepared for the challenge ahead. For England fans the issue is that the final place in the side must be picked on a wing and a prayer, with no one having made a clear case to support Anderson, Broad and Swann. And with Matt Prior injured, there is no ready-made replacement.

There is though, another interpretation. Of the top six who will step out on the Gabba turf, four – Carberry, Cook, Trott and Bell – have centuries, three of them “retired out”, the other, not out. Two of those centuries were converted into 150s. Root has two good fifties batting at 6. Pietersen has just one fifty from three innings, but looks in imperious form. Prior and Bairstow have both had a useful innings and, indeed, a few fans are even calling for Bairstow to keep the gloves for the Gabba (this would be a huge change of direction by England and a massive surprise). Each of the bowlers has played two matches and, the leading wicket takers on the tour so far are… Finn and Rankin, neither of whom has, supposedly, made a case for selection. In fact, Steve Finn has just one wicket fewer than Broad, Anderson and Swann together.

Finn has the largest number of wickets and, by some distance, the best strike rate. However, of the bowlers used by England, only the lightly used Ben Stokes has been more expensive than Steve Finn’s almost four and a half runs per over. Finn and Rankin have almost identical averages on tour, Rankin is considerable the more economical of the two but, whereas Broad, Anderson and Swann have all conceded fewer than three-an-over, Rankin is still the wrong side of three-an-over. A few people still advocate using Chris Tremlett, but he has been neither economical (only slightly less expensive than Steve Finn), nor effective (just one wicket so far).

What seems certain is that, unless Matt Prior has not recovered and there is no suggestion that he will not recover in time, England will pick: Carberry; Cook; Trott; Pietersen; Bell; Root; Prior; Broad; Swann; Anderson; Finn and Rankin. The last place will almost certainly depend on the pitch and a feeling as to which of Finn and Rankin will use it best.

Australia will, as in 2010/11, set out to hit Graeme Swann out of the attack, without gifting him wickets: a delicate balance at any time. Their game plan will depend on stopping him from bottling up an end for session after session, taking vital wickets through pressure, while allowing the three pacemen to be rotated at the other end. Do England want the threat and hostility of Steve Finn, or the ability of Boyd Rankin to close up an end? If it’s Finn, will he be able to take enough wickets to compensate the runs that he concedes? If it is Rankin, will he be able to offer enough threat to allow England to take twenty wickets? We will find out on Thursday.

Australia’s problems run deeper. Even though they have a side that is more or less settled, it is settled more through lack of options than anything else. The Australian plan is basically to hope that Ryan Harris stays fit and that Mitch Johnson can continue to bowl fast and straight, as he has been doing in ODIs. Australia’s problem in England was that when Peter Siddle ran out of steam after the second Test, there was little support for Ryan Harris’s new ball thrust and the change bowling could not sustain any kind of pressure, allowing England to convert poor starts consistently into 300+ totals. Since then, injuries have weakened the attack and the reserve strength still further.

Things Start To Fall Into Place

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

The Most Satisfying Day of the Tour

 

November 14^th 2013

 
 

After trips to Perth and to Hobart that must have left the England squad wondering “is your journey really necessary”, today has been a really satisfactory day. Having watch the Cricket Australia Invitational XI get weaker by the day as player after player was withdrawn to play in the Sheffield Shield, there had been a fear that, between weak opposition and the forecast bad weather, this match would be of as limited use for serious preparation as he previous two. When the Australian top order, with Ed Cowan and Aaron Finch at its head imploded so spectacularly there was a fear that the bowlers would not get the hard workout that they needed, trying to winkle-out well-set batsmen when the ball was doing little or nothing. In particular Broad and Swann needed some hard overs.

When Carters and Neville did exactly what England needed them to do and showed some backbone, the headlines were, predictably, that it had been a pretty bad day at the office. All that though was put in context by what followed. When Broad took Carters first ball of the day, 271-5 rapidly became 304 all out. Four cheap wickets for Broad. Five for Finn. And what is even more important, at least 22 hard overs for every bowler, with Finn topping 28. The argument about the attack for Brisbane has been settled.

The Invitational bowling attack though is probably not much stronger than English County 2^nd XI. Lalor and Tremain, the new ball attack, had just five First Class matches each and 18 and 16 wickets respectively coming into this match, both at averages around 30. The one thing that did not go to script was that Michael Carberry fell cheaply however, he has so many runs already that it hardly matters. After that, Cook, Trott and KP made merry. Jon Agnew described KP’s wicket as “bored out” – having hit the ball to all corners for an hour and a half it was time to give someone else a go and get on with something more taxing, like reading a book.

Having reached parity by the Close, with the batsmen scoring at 4-an-over, Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow were enjoying some middle time, with Root looking set for another 50 batting at 6. The experiment of Root going back to the middle order seems to have revitalised him.

Even the weather is starting to help England. The bad forecast for tomorrow has improved considerably and there is a likelihood that there will be most of a day’s play. Ideally England would like to see Root and Bairstow get their fifties and then declare around lunch, before seeing if the bowlers can provoke another top-order collapse. It will be a big surprise if Finn does not get the new ball instead of Rankin in the second innings and an even bigger one if he and Broad do not rip into the Australian top order to try to make a point or two ahead of the Test. Finn, in particular, knows that he has had an almost miraculous comeback, having looked the most likely of the tall quicks to be left out of the XII for Brisbane. A little fire in the second innings and his place will be safe for at least a couple of matches. However, the news is that Tim Bresnan will play either in Alice Springs or in the Development XI’s three day match and will, most likely, be available for selection for the 2^nd Test so, unless he has a really good game at Brisbane, he may still lose his place later in the series.

Lucky Generals

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Dismissing England’s Challenge?

 

November 10^th 2013

 

 

A post on a popular cricket website caught my attention. It pointed out that over the last two years, England had been “stuffed by Pakistan and South Africa and couldn’t even beat Sri Lanka and New Zealand away. Let’s move on”. As a put-down, it was pretty devastating and very dismissive. It reflects the oft-stated Australian “England are over-rated” school of thought. There is no doubt that England lost the spin war in the last Ashes. It is a matter of faith among Australian fans that Australia were robbed during the summer series. Far from being a matter of just two overs from losing 4-0, it was only rain and one-eyed umpiring that shopped them from winning the series. A lot of Australian supporters genuinely believe that they were the better team and the innocent victims of a heist last summer and that things will be set right at home.

For people who, like me, have followed England through thick and thin – an awful lot of thin in the ‘80s and ‘90s – for decades, the tour of the UAE was a horrible blip. Andy Flower has been as meticulous as Duncan Fletcher was until the pressures of the job and the loss of key players de-railed him. After years of getting used to good results, even with sides that, on paper looked inferior, England went to the UAE with a good side and seemed to under-estimate horribly the opposition. It set the side into a downward spiral: 3-0 defeat in the UAE; a comeback 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka; a 2-0 win at home against the West Indies (with the 3^rd Test ruined by rain); followed by the series that really saw the wheels fall off the waggon where England lost 2-0 to South Africa. When England also lost the 1^st Test in India most people feared the worst.

What followed was the small detail that our correspondent forgot. England came back to beat India 2-1 and not even the most enthusiastic Indian fan can say that India were not well beaten; Australia, in contrast, have lost their last 6 Tests in India and been whitewashed in both series. After losing 7 Tests from 12 over five series in 2012, England followed that up by winning in India, drawing in New Zealand, whitewashing New Zealand at home and then beating Australia 3-0: that is 7 wins in the next 12 Tests, with no defeats. It has seen England start to climb back up the ICC rankings to their current #2 position, just ahead of the revived Indians.

Australian fans will retort that England have been lucky. They could have lost the series in New Zealand. Rain intervened on the only two occasions that Australia passed 300 in the summer Test series, India fell apart when things started to do against them. England have been lucky but, it was Napoleon Bonapart who said:
 

“I know he's a good general, but is he lucky?”

No one can plan for luck to intervene in their favour, but you can certainly give luck a helping hand with adequate preparation. There is a famous phrase that is inaccurately attributed to the golfers Arnold Palmer and Gary Player, but which seems to be claimed by Lee Trevino:

Lee Trevino hit a magical iron shot, one that appeared to curve around a tree trunk, duck under branches, soar over a bunker and bite a few feet from the pin. “Signor Trevino,” called a Roman from the gallery, “are you always that lucky?” “Signor,” replied the U.S. Open champion, “the more I practice, the luckier I get.”

This though is an adaptation of a phrase that has been used at least since the 19^th Century. It best summed up in the following quote from another golfer, Jerry Barber, in 1960, that sums up the Andy Flower philosophy.

The diminutive Los Angeles golfer sank a 15-foot putt on the second hole for birdie-3 and a 20-footer on the eight for a birdie-2.

“The harder you work the luckier you get,” said the 134-pound Barber

That, is Andy Flower!

There are times though when all the luck and preparation in the world cannot save you, which was what happened against South Africa. With the United Kingdom distracted by the magnificently successful London Olympics, Andy Flower had to deal with a dressing-room breakdown in the Kevin Pietersen affair and everything going wrong on the pitch. People tend to forget – or not even to know – that England had a first innings lead in two of the three Tests, so it was a far more competitive series than legend remembers.

In the 1^st Test England’s very respectable 385 all out, with a century from Cook and fifties by Trott and Prior were blown away by Hasim Amla’s 311 not out and Dale Steyn’s 5-56. South Africa were simply in a different league. The 2^nd Test though was a different kettle of fish: a big century and four wickets from Kevin Pietersen put England in what should have been a winning position on the last day and, had two vital catches not gone down, England would have had every chance of winning. When South Africa declared finally, England had been batted out of the game: 253 to win in 39 overs was just too many. South Africa had done what England had done so often in the last few years: ride their luck and make it count. The 3^rd Test was yet another case. South Africa set 346 to win and, with England 45-4, it looked as if the match would finish quickly. England fought back and, at 282-7 on the last day, with Swann and Prior leading a glorious counter-attack, England were just 64 short and the South Africans were nearing panic. It took a run out to break the partnership and stop England from squaring the series.

South Africa showed how important it is to take advantage of your luck and won deservedly: one lucky General was beaten by one who was even luckier and who made his own luck!

However, even though Darren Lehmann is a very fine General, is he going to be a lucky one? One wonders if he has the troops to overcome an England side that also has a great General at the helm and that is trying to leave no stone unturned in the search for success in Australia. To a large degree you make your own luck and Andy Flower is trying to ensure that things go his way on the battlefield.