A Robson Premonition?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

A Bad Day for the Indians

 

June 29^th 2014

 

The headline is not the one that the Indians would have liked to see “Robson punishes the Indians”. It was Sam Robson’s younger brother, Angus, but just as unwelcome. If it is a premonition, it will be a particularly unwelcome one. If the Indians had made light of a weak Leicestershire attack, Leicestershire simply laughed at the no fewer than ten bowlers pitted against them. As India fielded all their squad of eighteen at some point the game was not First Class, so Angus Robson missed out on a maiden First Class century, but he still softened-up the tourists for his big brother.

In the 152 overs that rain allowed, just five wickets fell and no fewer than four batsmen – two on each side – retired out. In the devastation, two Leicestershire batsmen accumulated just four runs between them, but Robson with 126 retired and Smith with 101 retired made sure that the Indians will not have left Grace Road with fond memories, although their bowlers did get a hard workout. Angus Robson’s innings suggests that there is more to come from the Robson brothers. Angus has passed 50 in six of his last twelve First Class innings and has reached 75 in five of those innings without quite reaching a century.

The vagaries of tour itineraries now sees the Indians going to struggling Derbyshire for their last warm-up before the Tests. No one could have imagined when the tour fixtures were arranged that Derbyshire would be finding life harder in Division 2 than they did in Division 1 last year, having so nearly escaped relegation with a late run. It is not exactly the hard run out that the side was hoping for but, with England struggling so badly, maybe they will not mind so much.

Poor Pitches Or Poor Cricket?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

T20 Blasted and the Indians, Drowned

 

June 28^th 2014

 

It has been a slow news day. The only dangers that the Indians faced at Leicester were of avoiding drowning. Deluge. Play abandoned for the day soon after lunch. Thanks for coming.

Elsewhere, fans have been trying to enjoy the NatWest T20 Blast. In mid-week, Middlesex put out a 2^nd XI attack including Steve Finn (an England player less than a year ago), Toby Roland-Jones (England Lions) and Ollie Rayner (England Lions). A side boasting such depth of talent, plus players such as Eoin Morgan and Dan Christian looks made for T20, right? Except that the paying spectators and TV viewers saw a game at Lords on Thursday night in which a makeshift Gloucestershire side struggled, thanks to a late surge, to 105 on a pitch that made strokeplay almost impossible. Rain caused the match to be abandoned but some pundits reckoned that Middlesex would have struggled to reach the target. The fears that 105 could be a winning score were not allayed when, last night, on a pitch at Hove where both sides wanted to bat first and the groundsman felt 160-180 was par, Middlesex staggered to 107 before Sussex rattled to their target with almost four overs to spare, but without overstressing themselves. It was not exactly the big-hitting, thrill a ball cricket that the public were promised, although pundits elsewhere saw a useful innings from some guy called "KP". At the same time, Gloucestershire were winning a thrilling game against Kent at Bristol, reaching their target of 151 from the last ball.

Poor pitches or poor play? It seems to be that a bit of both are involved. Either way, NatWest T20 Blast is, most definitely, not the IPL.

Rest, Yes, But Goodwill To The Public Is Also Important

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Belated Rest Before Goodwill

 

June 27^th 2014

 

The battle for the soul of English cricket continues with the Cook-ites and the anti-Cook-ites continuing to entrench positions. In the absence of international cricket for two weeks and the absence of any sighting of non-Indian international cricketers too, it is reduced to a surrogate battle, with the latest broadside from Shane Warne producing giggles of delight from Indian fans who sense that the current uncertainty is making the upcoming series more and more competitive.

India enjoyed a profitable day against the typically anaemic attack that is provided these days against tourists. Pitted against somewhat less than terrifying new ball combination of Anthony Ireland (49 First Class matches) and Atif Sheik (who has played just one First Class match), with an Australian who has never played a First Class match and a bowler who averages almost 50 playing as first and second change, all seven batsmen to get an innings reached at least 20 and two batsmen had to retire out to give their colleagues some middle time as there was little danger of the bowlers taking wickets. It is not hard to see why touring English teams have problems getting credible opposition when they travel abroad.

To the disappointment and incomprehension of many, with two weeks before the 1^st Test, just one player from the Test side has been released to play for his county and that is Moeen Ali, presumably with the request that he bowl as many overs as possible in the round of County Championship matches starting on Sunday. He is joined by Chris Woakes,. England’s twelfth man in both Tests. The thought that, as a public relations exercise, it would be nice to see the other ten players turn out for tonight’s T20 matches has not occurred to the selectors.

There is a good reason for it. England will cram five Tests into six weeks against India and there is little doubt that the off-colour displays of Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad on Day 4 at Headingley had a lot to do with them having had to bowl a lot of overs on an unforgiving surface at Lords and then come back three days later and bowl first at Headingley. All four of England’s seamers bowled from 90-95 overs in the series. It may well be that Alistair Cook’s decision to bowl first and deny his bowlers an extra day of rest cost England the series. Even so, you do wonder if having a bit of fun in a T20 with their county side might have done the players as much good as the extra day of rest now.

Of course, some counties might baulk at having to drop a player who has already slogged around the circuit for the side playing T20s while the stars away, to accommodate a returning player for one game but, there is no doubt that the paying public would like to see  Jordan and Plunkett tearing in and Bell and Prior whacking the ball around occasionally in their county colours.

India Arrive With Real Options Of Winning

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

And The Indians Arrive…

 

June 26^th 2014

 

There is no respite on the international calendar. No sooner has one series ended does another tour start. The Indians are at Grace Road for the start of their tour. No longer one of the upcoming venues of English cricket, Grace Road which, in its 1980s heyday, hosted ODIs and would have been many people’s choice if a new Test venue had to be found, is not what it was and the fortunes of Leicestershire – now perennial wooden spoon candidates – have fallen with it.

India want the warm-ups to have some intensity and many fans will back them in that. What is the interest in seeing a touring side play a third-string side, stripped of its stars? Apart from cheating the paying public who do still tend to flock to these games, it is simply a discourtesy to the touring team and invites retribution later. It is also a reflection of the lack of interest that these games have to the players. Twenty years ago, a five-for or a century against the tourists was a sure-fire way of putting your name in the frame for a Test call; now, performances against the tourists count for almost nothing. Players do not have the incentive to turn out to be noticed and most of the bigger names get “rested”, sometimes in the guise of protecting minor injuries that don’t seem to impede them come the Friday night T20.

India will have seen England’s struggles to finish off a spirited Sri Lankan side and see an unexpected opportunity to take something from the series. Whitewashed 4-0 on their last tour, this was seen as an easy series for England to rehabilitate. Now, there is every possibility that England could lose it if the Indians forger their typical siege mentality when on a tour of England and concentrate on their cricket, especially with the canny Duncan Fletcher managing them. England are vulnerable. They have lost the habit of winning matches and have lost the habit of turning round difficult situations. It has been lost on no one that at Lords Sri Lanka held out for a full day while, at Headingley, England were unable to hold out for very slightly longer, mainly due to an abysmal collapse against the new ball.

Fortunes can be turned around quickly. Australia were a disorganised rabble in 2012 and 2013, with a record of defeats little better than England’s and a captain questioned and crippled by a degenerating injury. A change of coach seemed to make little difference as the series in England ended in a heavy defeat yet, under the surface, something was happening and many wise heads were saying that the return series would be much tougher.  For Australia, a regime change and the recovery of a 90mph bowler were all that they needed to turn the tables. The management has changed and England have found a 94mph bowler, but have given him two fairly lifeless surfaces to work with. It is hard to imagine that Australia would have negated their biggest weapon by offering him a pitch that largely neutralised him.

For England, the captaincy question has been largely settled for now. The captain is not for resigning. The big guns of the establishment are backing him and, to a large degree, influential figures in the media are giving him a sympathetic hearing. The antics of a few airheads whose way of showing their loyalty is to hope that England lose so that they can get rid of their pet hate players has, more than anything, worked in Cook’s favour. This has been a distressing phenomenon in British sport for some years now. It was particularly prevalent before the Olympic Games, with a significant minority leaping gleefully on any negative news story and predicting disaster anywhere where they could get a hearing. Some “fans” genuinely want England to lose and Alistair Cook to fail to further their private agenda.

Another piece of not so unexpected news is that, with two weeks before the 1^st Test against India, Alistair Cook will not play for Essex against Gloucestershire on Sunday. Division 2 runs are no guarantee of Test runs – Alistair Cook knows that better than most, having run up 386 runs @ 77, with two centuries in his five innings for Essex this season – but it would have given him a chance to get some middle time and some confidence. However, the Essex Chairman says that rest and time with him family will serve him better and that is quite possibly true, as there will be no press and no fans following his every move on the farm in darkest Essex.

Alistair Cook may yet decide that, on reflection, he needs a break from the pressure of the captaincy. That seems unlikely now. It seems almost certain that, barring injury, he will lead England at Trent Bridge. When he does, let’s all hope that it works out well, both for him and for the side. He is the captain. Let’s back him. 1.2 billion Indians will be hoping that England do badly, let’s not swell that number with misguided ideas that it is the best thing for the team for them to fail.

Plenty Of Positives, But Alistair Cook Looks Like The Ian Botham Of 1981

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Remembering 1981 and 1989

 

June 25^th 2014

 

Yesterday I posted: “The Test and the series, barring a miracle of epic proportions, are lost. A lost opportunity at Lords and defeatist tactics at Headingley will give the fighting Sri Lankans a deserved first series win in England.”

It so nearly happened. And it left a lot of fans with mixed feelings. England, as a side, did not deserve to escape with the draw. However, the batsmen who so nearly pulled off the miracle yesterday, most certainly did. Through the day, as partnership after partnership ate up time, the possibility of England becoming the first side ever to save a Test when entering the last day 5 wickets down was coming tantalisingly closer. However, such things need their fair share of good luck and luck was not really on England’s side. Although one wicket was annulled due to a un-called no ball, Matt Prior looked unfortunate not to be reprieved too. Of course, this was the only day in the series that, despite rain and bad light, the full allocation of 90 overs were bowled.

It was also a demonstration of an unpalatable truth. Sri Lanka’s pace attack, which had been criticised as toothless in the 1^st Test, showed the English attack how to close out a match. Whereas England had been unable to finish the job at Lords, at Headingley, Eranga kept his nerve and bowled a venomous last over to Jimmy Anderson. Although the fastest delivery of the over did not reach 82mph and the wicket-taking ball was 80.0 mph, every ball except the penultimate one was pitched well short of half way and targeted at Jimmy Anderson’s body, with a host of catchers waiting for the fend-off when the instinct for self-preservation finally took over. It was a superb final over, setting-up the batsman for the close catch.

When a side loses, its first tendency is to spin the defeat by looking at the positives. Even in this Test they were obvious: Sam Robson and Moeen Ali, both playing in only their second Test match, scored centuries full of character, having been severely criticised for batting poorly previously. Liam Plunkett was a dropped catch from managing a 10-for in just his second Test back after an eight-year exile. Gary Ballance added another 50 to his 1^st Test century. Matt Prior looks back to his obdurate best. You could add to the list Joe Root’s double century in the 1^st Test but, as in last summer’s Ashes, the overwhelming fraction of Joe Root’s runs from the series came in a single innings – he is no longer the middle-order rock giving consistent contributions.

Moeen Ali has been an inspired pick. Prematurely criticised, he batted calmly through the day, giving nothing away and utterly unselfish. He marshalled the effort to save the game and nearly did himself out of a deserved century in doing so as he only got over the line just before the end. Moeen Ali is something that England have been so desperately missing for some years: a real personality, someone who stands out and if full of fun. He has a lot of the irrepressible Monty Panesar of 2006 about him. He is also a role model in a multi-cultural society: he plays for England, but is proud of who and what he is.

However, it is the batting of Matt Prior that should give most pause for thought. Although he dropped a sitter and an expensive one at that, he looks to be recovering the form and combativeness that made him England’s go-to player. With no Test cricket after the India series until New Zealand arrive next May, Matt Prior would make a plausible stand-in captain for the side. In what could be his last Test series, he could be told by the selectors that his is a temporary promotion to allow Alistair Cook a rest, but himself go out on a high of having had the honour of captaining his team.

People have been looking for precedents of England cricket captains being sacked. It is not frequent because most resign before the selectors can remove them. One of the most spectacular cases though was of Chris Cowdrey, In the infamous 1988 summer of four official captains he was trumpeted as the start of a new era in the 4^th Test after Mike Gatting’s entanglement with a barmaid and John Emburey lost form so totally that he was unselectable. Injured and replaced as captain by Graeme Gooch for the 5^th Test, Cowdrey was never formally sacked, he was just dropped from the side after a single match in charge. David Gower took over again for the equally disastrous 1989 Tests against Australia before Ian Grieg – brother of Tony – was appointed for the tour of the West Indies, only for the selectors to discover that he was no longer qualified to play for England and have to replace him with Graeme Gooch!

Alistair Cook though looks more like the Ian Botham of 1981. Botham had taken England though two tough series home and away against the West Indies, losing both and losing form as he did so. Compared to the embarrassments that would follow in the 1980s, with two blackwashes, Botham’s record of 1-0 and 2-0 defeats, with England competing strongly in the home series at least, was far from a bad one. However, publically questioned for his lack of captaincy skills, on trial for his poor batting form, struggling with his bowling due to the back injury that would finally remove him as a strike-bowling option, Ian Botham was increasingly testy and stressed, although desperate to set things right. It looks so much like Alistair Cook right now. Ian Botham finally resigned as captain just hours before the selectors were going to sack him and, relieved of pressure, proceeded to show the form of his life for the next year.

Right now there is real doubt as to whether or not Alistair Cook is worth his place in the side. He is not scoring runs. England are not getting starts (it is 7 innings since the last 50 opening partnership and more than 15 months since the last century opening stand). And he is, unlike Mike Brearley, not worth his place on captaincy skills alone.

While, in the heat of battle, he has said that he will continue, even that is a worrying sign. It would have left a better impression if, rather than being combative (something that he has not been on the field of play) he had said that his first inclination was to continue, if the selectors still have faith in him to turn things around, but that he would need to think things over for a few days first.

Right now there is a danger of England going into a 5-Test series that they are expected to win, with a seriously damaged captain who continues to struggle for form and who loses this series too. With every Test in the series in which he neither wins, nor scores runs, the pressure will increase still further, potentially leading to a captaincy change in mid-series. That is a pleasure to be avoided.

Alistair Cook's Resignation Just A Matter Of Time

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Alistair Cook on the Brink

 

June 24^th 2014

 

The Test and the series, barring a miracle of epic proportions, are lost. A lost opportunity at Lords and defeatist tactics at Headingley will give the fighting Sri Lankans a deserved first series win in England.

Alistair Cook faces a stark choice tonight. He can either try to struggle on, knowing that a 5-Test series against India is only likely to ratchet up the pressure on him unless England somehow win *and* he gets runs, or he can throw in the towel now and let someone else have a go.

Since the Chester-le-Street Test last summer, which was slipping away until Stuart Broad’s amazing burst, England have lost (assuming today’s game follows logic) six Tests and drawn two. They will have lost two series, both of which the majority of pundits expected them to win. They have lost the two ODI series v Australia and the series v Sri Lanka. They have lost the T20s in Australia, been knocked out of the World T20 and lost to Sri Lanka. The only salvation was drawing the T20 series against Australia last summer 1-1, winning 2-1 in the ODIs against the West Indies and beating Scotland in a one-off match.

In all formats it is 9 wins and 26 defeats with 2 draws and eight series defeats to two wins and a shared series. Even if Alistair Cook was not captain in the T20s and most of the ODIs he knows that if the Test team at least is winning, the public will put up with defeats in other formats but, when the Test team throws away a series the way that it just has, there is no hiding.

Even the more pessimistic pundits expected England to defeat Sri Lanka and India in the Tests this summer, before coming up against reality again next year in the World Cup and the return Ashes. Before the Sri Lanka series, the critics expected England to dominate the series, making people believe that the recovery was on the way and were warning that we should not forget the issues in the light of comfortable wins against opponents not ready for the conditions.

When David Gower got the captaincy back in the 1980s despite repeated drubbings it was suggested that it was for “Bedser-ish ‘there is no alternative’ reasons”. The denouement there was the summer of four captains in 1989, including the spectacular sacking of Chris Cowdrey by simple expedient of dropping him from the side after injury. The team even had a fifth captain in Derek Pringle, as a stand-in due to injury. Soon afterwards England picked a captain for the Caribbean tour before discovering that he was ineligible to represent the side. Whilst not suggesting that we have reached this level of chaos, the only reason given for Alistair Cook to stay on has been that there is no obvious alternative.

If Alistair Cook does go, unless England decide to do something left field and bring back T20 and sometime ODI captain Eoin Morgan (Stuart Broad has been quietly relieved of the T20 captaincy in the meantime), the only real option within the current team is Matt Prior who was, himself, dropped from the side in Australia after a terrible run of form. Eoin Morgan has been in good form with the bat this summer – 462 runs at an average of 57.8, including two centuries – belying the suggestions that he has no appetite for red ball cricket now. However, to make room for him, probably Moeen Ali would have to be dropped, reducing England’s limited spin resources even more.

The retirement of Graeme Swann not only robbed England of balance to the side, but also of a senior player and a plausible alternative captaincy candidate however, the state of his elbow had got so bad last winter that he realised that he could not go on. What was shocking was his revelation during the Test series that, once he had informed the management that he could no play on, he was told that he had to leave the tour and received no assistance with repatriating his family. It was poor reward for his dedication and sacrifice.

The pundits are uncertain which way Cook will jump. He does not tend to give up but, there is no question that mentally he is shot, he is finding the criticism tough to face and, combined with his poor batting form, is unhappy and confused and needs some relief from the pressure. It seems more likely than not that, even if management ask him to stay on, he will decide to resign today after the defeat is consummated.

England captains are rarely sacked and Alistair Cook will not be either: they almost always resign first.

How Often Does A Side Chase 350 Successfully?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The Test and Series Threaten to Escape II

 

June 23^rd 2014

 

 

Bad news for England.

There have been 341 instances of a side being set 350+ to win with at least 55 overs to get them (i.e. a genuine 4th innings target, with all four results possible).

They have resulted in:

8 wins
99 draws
234 defeats

In a further 44 cases the side batting last, chasing 350+, has had fewer than 55 overs to survive and still lost.

In other words, just about 72% of such run chases have ended in defeat. So, I leave you to draw your own conclusions as to the England chances of winning...

 

Sri Lanka Threatening To Turn The Tables

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The Test and Series Threaten to Escape

 

June 23^rd 2014

 

When England were 278-2 late on Saturday, already 21 ahead and with Robson and Bell piling the agony on the Sri Lankan attack, you would hardly have been able to get a price on an England victory and the only doubt seemed to be when it would occur and by what margin. Right now, while not in a strong position, Sri Lanka know that eighty more runs would give them a shot at victory and that, if they can get close to England’s first innings total, they will be favourites.

England made a real mess of the match starting on Saturday evening, when a position of utter dominance was thrown away. With Moeen Ali managing to extract big turn against the left-handers, there is some concern that chasing 200+ may not be easy. This is a pitch where, when a batsman gets in, runs are on offer, but where one wicket can often lead to three or four in quick time. Sri Lanka’s last 5 wickets went down for 29 in the first innings, England’s last seven for 44.

The feeling is that the current partnership is critical for Sri Lanka. If it is broken, the end may come quickly. If it thrives, Sri Lanka could well set England a really tricky target. The new ball will be due after 7 overs: if Sri Lanka have already lost a wicket when it is taken, the match could be all over by Tea but, if England waste it, things may start to get ugly.

For long periods yesterday, very little was happening but, when they did, it was usually Liam Plunkett who was involved until, with things starting to get alarming in the evening session with the runs coming far too easily for comfort, Moeen Ali produced two wickets in three balls. Moeen’s performance posed various questions as he extracted big turn with some deliveries, including concern that if a bowler usually treated as a part-timer could do that, what might Herath do on the same pitch? Moeen has though, in a decent spell and, most particularly, in those two balls, shown that he could develop into a useful spinner at this level, of his batting is up to the job. He is though under some pressure in his specialist role after showing poor shot choice in his last two dismissals and needs some runs in England’s chase, although Alistair Cook would probably much rather that he did not get another chance to bat in this match.

The most likely scenario is that Sri Lanka’s innings is over, or coming to an end by lunch. If it is not, particularly if either Jayawardene or Matthews are still at the crease, England may be starting to stare an extremely unpalatable defeat square in the face.

Another Glass Half Full Day

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The Test Veers Off Course Again

 

June 22^nd 2014

 

Just as on Day 1 it had seemed that Sri Lanka were in control for a large part of the afternoon before things suddenly took on a whole different complexion with a massive collapse, on Day 2 England’s two colonial lions were squeezing the life out of the Sri Lankan bowling until a late collapse evened things up. Make no mistake, with England 63 ahead after two days and four wickets still left, Sri Lanka are still on the ropes, but they are not facing a standing count with the referee checking the eyes with a look of concern.

At Tea you would have put good money on England having a 300 lead some time on Day 3 and Sri Lanka having to bat six or seven sessions to save the Test. Now, the first priority is to push the lead past 100 and, if possible, towards 150: it is not obvious that even the former is going to happen.

In the  morning, Cook and Robson bettered their effort at Lords, but were still not able to register a fifty partnership. Cook registered another failure. In the last year he has had 34 international innings. In 24 of them he has reached double figures, but has only gone past 30 on 12 occasions. He is getting in, but then getting out, showing that the mind-set is not right. Geoff Boycott feels that his foot movement has gone, making him vulnerable. In plain language, what it means is that at the moment Alistair Cook is no more set when he has reached 50 than when he has just got into double figures. He has 7x50 in the last year but, four of those fifties ended immediately on reaching the landmark (50, 51, 51, 56) as if any tiny relaxation on crossing the landmark led to his immediate downfall.

Alistair Cook is going through the same slump that in recent years we have seen hit Marcus Trescothick and Andrew Strauss and, in the past, has paralysed even batsmen such as Graeme Gooch and Geoff Boycott. You just do not know where your next run is coming from. All came back as good, or better than ever. He will crack it too, but it may yet cost him the captaincy.

The better news was that after looking strokeless and paralysed with nerves at Lords, Sam Robson kept up his scoring sequence by following two failures with a century. Every time this season that he has failed twice in a match he has come back in the next and made the bowlers pay. This innings was not a classic, but was still pretty good and should keep his place safe for a couple of Tests (Nick Compton scored centuries in consecutive Tests in New Zealand and was dropped three Tests later). He solid. When he is in he is very hard to dislodge. And if he can conquer those problems around off stump the way Chris Rogers has, he will enjoy a very productive career [those around Middlesex who know Rogers well, thought that his early vulnerability around off stump could end up being meat and drink to new ball bowlers in Tests, especially if there was some movement to exploit – however, he has sorted it out and bowlers are regretting it]. England have had one-innings wonders before, but one hopes that Sam Robson will go on to make runs against India and then consolidate himself next summer against Australia.

Gary Ballance has shown again that the loss of Jonathon Trott has been repaired – he is still young and inexperienced and will take time to learn all that Trott learnt, but the runs will still come as he does it. England’s #3 problem is fixed. Ian Bell managed another classy 50. Sadly, neither could accompany Robson past the century. Root and Moeen fell quickly, leaving Prior and Jordan to effectuate recovery this morning.

England are still in the box seat, but a lot less than they should be. They need at least one fifty from the remaining batsmen to hammer home the advantage. At Lords, the tail scored runs in both innings. Here they are needed to perform again, first with the bat and then with the ball.

First Part Of The England Task Accomplished

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

First Part of the Task Accomplished

 

June 21^st 2014

 

England could say that it was mission accomplished at the end of the day, although the route to get there was an odd one. Sangakkara was given four lives as he held the Sri Lanka innings together. At one point it looked as if England’s decision to insert could be a disaster. However, 257ao and 36-0 in reply looks pretty good and, if you had not followed the action, you might think that it was one-way traffic.

Had England taken their chances, Sri Lanka would not have reached 150. Some were tough, but of the kind that often does come off. One was a Pythonesque sequence: catch ball, try to throw up ball to celebrate, fumble and drop ball, look like an idiot. Memorably it happened to Mike Gatting against Australia. On this occasion the fielder did not have the excuse of a cheese and pickle sandwich belly to impede him and, protected by the gloves, left the bewildered commentators trying to work out just how the ball had slipped out and fallen to the floor.

Once again, the killer for Sri Lanka was the “6 out, all out” formula that they applied twice at Lords. At 228-5, with Sangakkara and Chandimal well set, 330+ looked a distinct possibility and Geoff Boycott was warning darkly that the bigger the total, the more likely that England’s inexperienced line-up would struggle to match it. Four wickets for one run in nine balls from Broad and Plunkett left the innings in ruins. As at Lords, the last pair were expected to come to the rescue and duly showed some of their colleagues how to bat.

Stuart Broad comes in for a great deal of criticism. Some of it is his own fault: he has got himself a bad name for petulant displays and immaturity on the field. Some of it is simply his nationality – racism has come back into the game and is high-profile has made him an easy target. But part of it is his success. Many England fans do not regard him as one of the five best seam bowlers in the country and chafe at his selection as soon as he has a couple of poor games. The reality is though that he came off for England time and again in difficult situations: at Trent Bridge and Chester-le-Street, in Australia and, yesterday, with Sri Lanka threatening to post a winning score. He removed Sangakkara with the last ball of the 63^rd over. Fourth ball of the next over, Plunkett, bowling frighteningly fast, removed Prasad. First ball of the 65^th over, Broad added Chandimal, with the Sri Lankan dressing room in full panic. Second ball of the 65^th over, Eranga edged to Prior. The field was set for the hat-trick ball and Pradeep straight-batted it away. Disappointment for Broad until, at the end of the over, the ground announcer just happened to mention that Stuart Broad had become one of just a handful of bowlers to take two hat-tricks in Test cricket.

Stuart Broad with his dander up and bowling straight and full, can be a frightening proposition.

The best news for England though was that Liam Plunkett was not asked to pepper the middle of the pitch. Fast, straight and full was more than most of the Sri Lankans could handle. I said it in the 4^th innings at Lords and wonder if, had he been asked to bowl that way, England might not have won.

What is evident is that Sri Lanka have a serious issue with their batting. The middle order contains some brilliant players, but cannot score enough to compensate for the weakness of the opening pair and the total lack of fight of the bottom five when faced by fast bowling. To progress they either have to play on slow tracks that favour their spinners and hide their problem, in which case they will always struggle in England, Australia, New Zealand and, probably Pakistan, or they can try to spice-up their wickets and get used to facing pace. The seam attack is one of the better ones that they have brought to England with Pradeep around 90mph, so they would not suffer from giving their bowlers something to work with at home.

Although the last pair added 28 valuable runs, Plunkett finally got one through Pradeep for a well-deserved 5-for. There will be no more premature talk of dropping him.

For England the task now is to take advantage of the work of the bowlers. With no 50 opening partnership since Melbourne and no century opening partnership since Dunedin and both openers in need of runs, the first task was to reach the Close. Alistair Cook was lucky to manage it, with a low catch that may or may not have carried to Sangakkara who, with great honour and dignity, immediately signalled that he was unsure. Once the catch went to the TV umpire there was only one possible decision, but there is more than one expert who is sure that Cook was lucky.

Sam Robson looked unflustered and organised. Twice this season he has failed twice in a match and come back to make a century in the next innings. If he can do that a third time he will close the general flap about his position and, undoubtedly, help Alistair Cook to make a score. At very least, England need two fifties and a century partnership from their openers. A century for at least one of them would be even better.

Today is a day to bat and bat and bat and not throw away a strong position that had looked unlikely at Tea.

England's Voyage Of The Damned

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Win or be damned

 

June 20^th 2014

 

Whatever happens over the next five days will set the tone for the rest of the England summer. A win will win the series, break a winless sequence that is getting too long for comfort and allow England to feel that the side is on its way back. It will set the side up for the series against India and give the younger players a much-needed dose of confidence. A defeat would be catastrophic and a draw, frustrating: both would be held up as evidence that the new England cannot even beat a side such as Sri Lanka who are playing in unfamiliar conditions. Even if England win and win well, it will be dismissed patronisingly as being “only against Sri Lanka”, but at least England will have met with some minimum expectations of success.

England are playing the same side. Chris Woakes, who has come into some real form after a slow start to the season, will again be surplus to requirements unless someone steps on the ball in warm-up. He is yet to make a 50 this season, but scored 49 in his only innings against Northants this week and took 4-87 and 4-53, bowling with more pace than in previous seasons. However, it is unthinkable that Liam Plunkett will be dropped at what is now his home ground after hard labour on an unforgiving surface at Lords. Plunkett bowled a lot of overs with the old ball – 48 – at high pace, in a hard-working attack. Broad and Anderson bowled 50 overs each and Chris Jordan 45, so they would appreciate England winning the toss and getting some extra rest. The Sri Lankan bowlers, with the exception of the willing Herath, had a much lighter load and an extra day of rest at the end of the Test. With the matches being played back-to-back, it would be a significant advantage for Sri Lanka were they to win the toss and bat given that the England bowlers will inevitably still be recovering from that last day effort at Lords.

Alistair Cook and Sam Robson both need some runs. England have not registered a century opening partnership since Cook and Compton were opening together in New Zealand (Dunedin, March 2013) and the last 50 opening partnership was in the Melbourne Test. Cook’s authority is eroded by lack of runs and, to judge by his comments yesterday, it appears to be preying on his state of mind. Sam Robson is already under pressure – for heaven’s sake, after ONE Test, despite being a run machine for the Performance squad and the Lions last winter? – and England cannot afford to make yet another change at the top of the order. Cook and Robson need a vote of confidence, but they also need some runs and, just as important, to register a big opening stand.

Those around the Middlesex camp flagged Sam Robson as a potential England player several years back. He has tended to be a famine or feast player. Twice this season he has had two failures in a match; both times he followed up with a century in his next match. In particular, 11 & 1 v Sussex at Hove were followed by a murderous 163 and 41* against Nottinghamshire (earlier, 28 and 17 for the MCC against Champion County, Durham, were followed by 107 against Hampshire, albeit in a friendly). Do not bet against him making it three out of three with a big century at Headingley to follow his two failures at Lords.

The ideal situation for England would be to win the toss and bat and for both Cook and Robson to register fifties in a century opening partnership. Hopefully this idyllic scene will be not too far removed from reality because England need to resolve the opening partnership problem before it becomes a real crisis and leads to a new upheaval in the side.

1st Test Reflections And England's Opening Partnership Nightmare

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

First Test Reflections

 

June 19^th 2014

 

How you look at the 1^st Test depends on whether you prefer to have your glass half full, or half empty. While the match ended a run of five consecutive defeats, it stretched the sequence without victory to seven matches. While England competed well and made all the running in the match, they could not force victory. While the tactics were more aggressive than in Australia and the captain tried to make things happen, there was a feeling among many that the declaration was rather timid. While the bowling attack performed well in difficult conditions, the lack of a front-line spinner may have been the difference between victory and a draw.

After the paranoia that Australian fans showed about the pitches for the Ashes last summer being doctored to give England an unfair advantage (undoubtedly, Indian fans will claim that the pitches for their Tests this summer will have longer and greener grass than the outfield – one even went so far last year as to suggest that playing cricket on grass is unnatural!) this Test was played on a surface that, if it favoured anyone, favoured the visitors. It was low, slow and lifeless – the sort of pitch where you want a top-class spinner rather than four, 90mph, hit the deck fast bowlers. As such, it was hardly the surface that you wanted for a returning tearaway quick. Liam Plunkett was getting close to 95mph and bowling every bit as fast as Mitch Johnson did last winter but, on a surface that did him few favours. He still fulfilled his task as enforcer, roughing-up and harassing the opposition, buying wickets for whoever was at the other end. He will know that the Headingley surface on Friday will offer him much more encouragement than Lords did.

Plunkett came in for some unfair criticism during the Test and some fans suggested he be dropped for Ben Stokes for the 2^nd Test. With all due respect to Stokes. 10 wickets @ 35.7 and 105 runs @ 26.25 so far this season are hardly a strong case for a recall and do not really compare with Plunkett’s  24 wickets @ 24.8 and 209 runs @ 34.8.

What fans would not have expected was that, after Plunkett, England’s other 90mph bowler was not Stuart Broad or Chris Jordan, but Jimmy Anderson. A lot of people wrote his obituary in Australia but he is bowling with as much skill as ever – his spell around Tea on the 5^th Day changed the match – and with a fair bit of pace. Stuart Broad had only bowled 51 overs in First Class cricket this season and, for many, maybe should not have been an automatic pick. Match figures of 4-110 including an excellent last day spell and 71 runs batting at #9 were certainly a big contribution to England’s cause. No one now talks of Stuart Broad batting at #7 and, indeed, probably in this Test Liam Plunkett should have come in ahead of him, but when he gets it right, he can hit cleanly and well.

A lot was expected of Chris Jordan. Although he had a couple of inaccurate spells, you cannot argue with debut match figures of 5-136 and 54 runs made at a rollicking pace when England needed some momentum. Jordan has the priceless knack of getting wickets with bad balls and of making things happen.

Of the batsmen, Bell, Root, Moeen, Ballance and Prior all had cause to celebrate. Fifties for Bell and Prior. Moeen just missing a debut fifty. A century for Ballance. A double for Root (batting at #5,  away from the new ball and, again, making runs). It all looks so rosy until you remember that the two openers aggregated just 67 between them in four innings and that both had fallen for 22 in the 1^st innings and for 51 in the 2^nd, leaving the middle order with a substantial repair job to do... again.

England have started to paint themselves into a corner with the openers. While Compton, Root, Carberry and now Robson have been used as regular opening partners for Cook, Alistair Cook himself has had a dire run of form. A century against South Africa, three in India, two against New Zealand in the last two years but, since the 2^nd Test v New Zealand at Headingley, despite 6x50, no score better than 72 and seven dismissals in single figures. In the last 12 months he has just 568 runs at 25.8.

In the last 2 years England have used Cook, Strauss, Compton, Root, Carberry, Pietersen and Robson as openers. Forty-five opening partnerships have produced just 10 opening stands of 50+. Fifteen times the openers have been parted with the total in single figures. In that time, four of the best five opening partnerships and all the century opening partnerships have been between Cook and Nick Compton. In fact, of the best ELEVEN opening partnerships in the last two years, just four are not from Compton and Cook (two by Carberry and Cook, one by Root and Cook, one by Strauss and Cook). The best England partnership of 2014 so far has been the 46 of Cook and Robson at Lords!

In these last two years, the median partnership (i.e. the partnership expected from the openers) has been just 22 – half of all the opening partnerships for England have been 22 or smaller.

One wonders if, just maybe, the selectors regret prematurely discarding Nick Compton which, it can be argued, has precipitated this crisis.

History Suggests That A Successful Fourth Innings Chase Of 300+ Is Very Unlikely

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

How Rare is a Successful Test Fourth Innings Chase?

 

June 18^th 2014

 

 

It is often pointed out that a side chasing 300+ successfully in the fourth innings is a rare event in Test cricket. It is also a relatively modern phenomenon: with the exception of the extraordinary chase by the 1948 Australians and a couple of cases from the early 20^th Century.

There have been 27 successful 4^th innings chases of 300+ in Tests. 11 of them have been since the year 2000 and 17 since 1990, making it appear, at first sight, that such cases are now much more common, which they are, but so much more Test cricket is played that the reason may simply be this.

The first side to chase 300+ successfully were Australia, in Adelaide, in 1902 (Test #67). It did not happen again until England returned the favour at Melbourne in 1928 (Test #178) and then again, in Test #302 – the extraordinary Headingley Test in 1948. It then happened in Test #320 (Australia v South Africa, in 1950) and Test #452 (West Indies v Pakistan, in 1958), but then not again until 1976, when India set a new record 4^th innings chase against the West Indies of 406-4 in Test #775.

All in all, chases of 300+ happened 8 times in the first 822 Tests up to the 3^rd Test of the 1978 Australian tour of the West Indies (as an anecdote, a Packerless Australia managed the feat against a full-strength India  in 1977 and a strong, although not full strength West Indies side in 1978).

We can thus say that up to 1978, a successful 300+ chase happened only every 100 Tests approximately.

Since 1978, there have been 19 further instances of successful chases of 300+ in the 4^th innings, the last by Pakistan in Sharjah in January, when they chased down 302-5 in just over 57 overs. The last completed Test – England v Sri Lanka at Lords – was Test #2124 so, the last 19 successful chases of 300+ have come in 1302 Tests, equivalent to one every 69 Tests. So, it does seem that the feat is becoming more frequent and, with the huge increase in the amount of Test cricket played, is a much more common event.

There is though, another factor to consider. Frequently, although there is a nominal target of 300 to win in the 4^th innings, it is due to the side batting third batting out most of the last day to save a match and not having time to set a realistic target so, although there is a nominal chase, there was never any prospect of a result.

Given that only once has a side chased down more than 300 at better than 5-an-over in the 4^th innings to win a Test, you can assume safely that any target of 300+ in less than 55 overs was a token declaration and so the chase, as such, never existed. How often then, using this criterion,have there been realistic chases of 300+ in the 4^th innings in 2124 Test matches?

The result is quite surprising.

A 4^th innings target of 300+ in which at least at least 55 overs overs have been bowled, has been set 473 times in 2124 Tests (22.3%), giving:

27 wins (5.7%)

1 tie (0.2%)

154 draws (32.6%)

291 defeats (61.5%)

Truly, chasing 300+ successfully in the fourth innings is a very big achievement for any side. Only about one in every eighteen attempts, has the chase been successful and, historically, six times out of ten the chasing side has lost.

One Of The Greatest Ever Test Finishes

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Ninety Overs Not Quite Enough

 

June 17^th 2014

 

The cooler heads were saying last night that 350 would be more than enough and that England needed a few overs before the Close on the fourth day, were proved right. Although the Sri Lankan fans were bullish and some confidently predicted that their side would have a comfortable chase after Tea, the reality was that sustaining a run rate far above what they had achieved in the 1^st innings with batting conditions the at their best, was never a plausible proposition. The way that Sri Lanka had collapsed in their 1^st innings from 385-4 to 453ao was warning enough.

In the 2^nd innings the collapse was even more dramatic. At 123-1 Sri Lankan fans were licking their lips at the prospect of a record chase. At 201-9, surviving the last over was the limit of their ambitions and even then only achieved, first with DRS and then with luck. Eight wickets for 78 was a pretty devastating collapse on a pitch that still offered the bowlers very little, even more so when Tea was reached on 164-3 with Sangakkara well set and the RRR still under 5.

The end of the match must go down as one of the most dramatic ever. Edgbaston 2005 was extraordinary and controversial, this was  unbelievably more dramatic still. After a clatter of wickets either side of Tea, a twenty over partnership between captain Matthews and the injured wicket-keeper Jayawardene had taken Sri Lanka to the brink of safety. Twenty-four were added in twenty overs and one ball until, with the last ball of the 79^th over, Chris Jordan lived up to his reputation for making things happen. Before that delivery, which thudded into Jayawardene’s pads, just 67 balls remained to take five wickets: it all looked over. However, England’s confidence that the flimsy Sri Lankan tail could be blown away, even on an easy pitch, was more than justified.

67 balls to go – Jordan traps HAPW Jayawardene LBW. Last review used in vain. 194-6.

58 balls to go – Jordan takes the new ball. 198-6

42 balls to go – Broad gets Kulasekara LBW. 199-7.

19 balls to go – Matthews edges Anderson to Cook. 201-8.

6 balls to go – Herath edges a Broad bouncer and walks. Replays show that the hand was off the bat and so it was not out. 201-9.

2 balls to go – Umpire Reiffel gives Pradeep LBW to Broad. Review. Inside edge. NOT OUT!

1 ball to go – Pradeep edges to Jordan at 2^nd slip. Ball bounced just short. 201-9.

Quite apart from being a vindication of DRS – no one would have wanted England to win thanks to a bad umpiring decision – it was also the first time that the rule change topping-up reviews at 80 overs has changed a match result. Had Sri Lanka not topped-up their reviews, the decision would have to have stood.

For England, who have taken a fair bit of criticism in this Test, it was vindication.

For Sri Lanka, the alarm bells are ringing. The 2^nd Test is being played at Headingley, starting Friday. If Sri Lanka could only hang on in extremis on the deadest and most lifeless of Lords pitches, what chances do they have on a Headingley pitch known over the years for its friendliness to seam bowlers? To boot, they have lost their wicket keeper – although Jayawardene batted heroically yesterday and almost saved his side, he is being sent home as he is unable to keep wicket.

Although there was a point after lunch when Sri Lanka were in touch with the asking rate and had wickets in hand, it was always going to be too much. The RRR was rising steadily from its initial 4.33. With 55 overs to go it had passed 5 and was increasing faster as England kept a vice-like pressure on the scoring rate: if wickets started to fall, any remote thoughts of a run chase would disappear, as people were predicting confidently they would. By Tea the RRR was around 7 and half an hour after Tea was approaching 9 – it was never on.

Only twice in Test history had a side chased successfully a 4^th innings target of over 300 at a faster run rate than the asking rate for Sri Lanka: the 1984 West Indies had done it at Lords and Pakistan had scored 302-5 at Sharjah in January 2014 in 57.3 overs to beat Sri Lanka. Only four times has a side chased 300+ successfully at more than 4-an-over: these things rarely happen in other than Fantasy cricket, so it was always going to be a simple case of whether or not Sri Lanka could survive 90 overs.

England fans will always ask what might have been had the bowlers had an extra 5 overs. Possibly no wickets would have fallen on the fourth evening but, even if they had not, the Sri Lankan tail would have had to survive fifteen overs with the new ball rather than ten. We will never know how it might have changed the match.