History Suggests That A Successful Fourth Innings Chase Of 300+ Is Very Unlikely

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

How Rare is a Successful Test Fourth Innings Chase?

 

June 18^th 2014

 

 

It is often pointed out that a side chasing 300+ successfully in the fourth innings is a rare event in Test cricket. It is also a relatively modern phenomenon: with the exception of the extraordinary chase by the 1948 Australians and a couple of cases from the early 20^th Century.

There have been 27 successful 4^th innings chases of 300+ in Tests. 11 of them have been since the year 2000 and 17 since 1990, making it appear, at first sight, that such cases are now much more common, which they are, but so much more Test cricket is played that the reason may simply be this.

The first side to chase 300+ successfully were Australia, in Adelaide, in 1902 (Test #67). It did not happen again until England returned the favour at Melbourne in 1928 (Test #178) and then again, in Test #302 – the extraordinary Headingley Test in 1948. It then happened in Test #320 (Australia v South Africa, in 1950) and Test #452 (West Indies v Pakistan, in 1958), but then not again until 1976, when India set a new record 4^th innings chase against the West Indies of 406-4 in Test #775.

All in all, chases of 300+ happened 8 times in the first 822 Tests up to the 3^rd Test of the 1978 Australian tour of the West Indies (as an anecdote, a Packerless Australia managed the feat against a full-strength India  in 1977 and a strong, although not full strength West Indies side in 1978).

We can thus say that up to 1978, a successful 300+ chase happened only every 100 Tests approximately.

Since 1978, there have been 19 further instances of successful chases of 300+ in the 4^th innings, the last by Pakistan in Sharjah in January, when they chased down 302-5 in just over 57 overs. The last completed Test – England v Sri Lanka at Lords – was Test #2124 so, the last 19 successful chases of 300+ have come in 1302 Tests, equivalent to one every 69 Tests. So, it does seem that the feat is becoming more frequent and, with the huge increase in the amount of Test cricket played, is a much more common event.

There is though, another factor to consider. Frequently, although there is a nominal target of 300 to win in the 4^th innings, it is due to the side batting third batting out most of the last day to save a match and not having time to set a realistic target so, although there is a nominal chase, there was never any prospect of a result.

Given that only once has a side chased down more than 300 at better than 5-an-over in the 4^th innings to win a Test, you can assume safely that any target of 300+ in less than 55 overs was a token declaration and so the chase, as such, never existed. How often then, using this criterion,have there been realistic chases of 300+ in the 4^th innings in 2124 Test matches?

The result is quite surprising.

A 4^th innings target of 300+ in which at least at least 55 overs overs have been bowled, has been set 473 times in 2124 Tests (22.3%), giving:

27 wins (5.7%)

1 tie (0.2%)

154 draws (32.6%)

291 defeats (61.5%)

Truly, chasing 300+ successfully in the fourth innings is a very big achievement for any side. Only about one in every eighteen attempts, has the chase been successful and, historically, six times out of ten the chasing side has lost.