The World T20: Never Mind India: Can Anyone Stop England Now?

 

The World T20

Never Mind India: Can Anyone Stop England Now?

 

March 30^th  2016

Having won the Toss in four straight matches, New Zealand finally lost one. It hardly mattered though: New Zealand wanted to bat and England wanted to chase. New Zealand had defended modest totals on several occasions and felt confident that the bowlers could do it again. England had chased-down 230 and fancied any reasonable total. New Zealand were slight favourites with the bookies, but England felt that they have their measure now, despite some appalling humiliations at New Zealand hands in the recent past.

At 55-1 after the PowerPlay and 89-1 at half way, there was every chance of a total around 200 and a very tough chase for England. Opponents of New Zealand have seen how they may start the chase well, but the New Zealand spinners have inevitably reined them in and hauled them back: to chase 200 would have been a tall order against a side that is consistently tough to beat in the shorter formats. Little were New Zealand to know that their total would prove woefully inadequate and that England would always be well ahead in the over comparison.

Where did it go wrong for New Zealand? Firstly, the innings simply ran out of steam. 89-1 after 10 overs, you would expect to score 120+ in the last 10 overs: New Zealand managed 64-7. England conceded just 20 runs in the last 4 overs and took five wickets. The pressure was already on in overs 11-14, in which only 22 were scored and the run rate plummeted. After the tenth over, one fan suggested that Eoin Morgan give up on his spinners because they were England’s weak link: Moeen Ali then came on and bowled two tight overs, removing Kane Williamson into the bargain and suddenly the momentum had slipped from New Zealand. Although Adil Rashid was relatively expensive (4-0-33-0) no one got after him either. The et tu, Brute? For New Zealand though was when Stokes and Jordan came on for the death overs and strangled the life out of the batsmen.

Jordan and Stokes? Two weeks ago, you would have been treated as almost certifiably insane to suggest that they were the ideal death over combination. Spectators in the Upper Tier of the Grandstand would start to worry about hard hats and life insurance when they came on to bowl. Chris Jordan was ridiculed every time that he took the ball. Hardly anyone remembered how Chris Jordan had bowled an extraordinary over in the super over in the UAE, limiting Pakistan to 3-1. As the tournament has progressed though, Chris Jordan has come on time and again at the death and, however much punishment he may have taken earlier, has been mean and tight. Ben Stokes has changed from being wild and loose to a handy foil. Between them, they produced the best ever spell of four death overs for England in a T20. People are not laughing at Chris Jordan now and Ben Stokes has come on by leaps and bounds.

Defending 153, New Zealand wanted a good start. What they received was a treatment similar to the one that South Africa had suffered. When, by the end of the third over, the back of the target has been more or less broken, you know that it is going to be tough to come back. Four boundaries for Jason Roy in the first over. A four and a six in the third. Another four and a six in the fourth. Two boundaries in the fifth. 60-0 after five overs and the target down to a fraction over a run-a-ball. Alex Hales – 15 from 10 balls – almost unnoticed as Jason Roy filleted the attack. When Hales fell the asking rate was 72 from 72 balls – plenty of room to re-trench, if necessary. England did when Roy and Morgan fell in consecutive balls in the 13^th over, but the bad news for New Zealand was that it left Joe Root and Jos Buttler together with plenty of time to play themselves in before the final assault. When the assault came – 32 from 9 balls – it was brutal and definitive. England won by a margin of seven wickets with seventeen balls to spare which, at this level, is almost an abyss.

No less important was the fact that, for the first time in the tournament, the spinners could not give New Zealand the type of stranglehold control that they had exercised up to now. For the first time, Santner and Sodhi came in for some heavy punishment: Sodhi’s two wickets were bought at a high price of 42 runs, double his previous economy in the tournament; while Santner went at just under 9 an over.

Now England await the winner of the second Semi-Final. And whoever plays them now knows that they will not be facing soft opposition. England have won chasing and defending a target and are showing some tremendous fighting powers. Underrate them at your peril.

Sadly, the England ladies will not join them in the Final. Chasing a modest 133 to win in the morning game on the same pitch, England were coasting at 89-1. 43 from 39 balls was the equation. Australia looked dead in the water, but England’s challenge just faded away and they finished 5 short. Both sides struggled in the death overs: Australia managed 22-3 and England, 31-4 but, the biggest singles factors were an inability of the England batswomen to makes ones into twos and pressure the fielders, plus the total lack of any contribution from the middle order in the entire tournament. Charlotte Edwards and Tammy Beaumont aggregated 340 runs in 10 innings; ten other batswomen managed just 256 runs between them in 49 innings. While the bowling has been magnificent – only Karen Brunt can say that she had a modest tournament and even she was by no means poor – there were only two scores higher than 20 from anyone other than Edwards and Beaumont, despite facing some very modest attacks in the group phase.

Part of the issue is that, outside the “Big Three”, although that standard has improved enormously, the depth is still poor. Lack of opportunity has reduced the development even of the top sides, let alone the Bangladeshes and Sri Lankas of the womens’ game. It has meant that a side like England can progress without ever playing well, because they are not being pushed and hardened, save when they play Australia or New Zealand and games against Australia and New Zealand are still far too few and far between. However, playing the mens’ and womens’ World Cups in parallel has at least raised the profile of the womens’ game, which is a start.

The West Indies have shown that there is still life in Caribbean cricket by reaching the Semi-Finals in both tournaments (along with England and New Zealand). In both contests they will start as the underdogs. They would do the game in their region a huge favour by reaching both Finals and would help to redress the balance of power in both the mens’ and the womens’ game. The balance of probability though is that they will be overpowered in both contests.
  

The World T20: Can Anyone Stop India Now?

 

The World T20

Can Anyone Stop India Now?

 

March 29^th  2016

 

Five overs left at Mohali. The run rate required has been climbing steadily. India are twelve behind Australia at the same stage and need two runs per ball. They have been well behind Australia at the same stage ever since the second over of the innings. This is the sort of situation that Australian teams have become clinical at closing-out, choking the life from their opponents over the years. Watson is bowling the seventeenth over: 19 balls to go, 43 wanted. Surely Australia have this one under control? The last Asian side in the World T20 are going out. The Australian bowlers just need to keep their heads and keep the ball up.

The next four balls go for 4, 4, 4 & 6 as Watson goes wide, then Faulkner drops it short, then bowls a yorker that would have been perfect had it been straight and then drops invitingly short again. In four balls Dhoni and Kohli have broken Australian spirits. The fight has gone. Four boundaries off Coulter-Nile’s next over as the bowler gets his lines wrong and it is all but over. For all the brilliance of Virat Kohli, you have to think that Australia folded like a card house under pressure when two dot balls might have won them the match.

With the West Indies hanging on to top spot in Group 1 and India ending the prospect of an Australia v New Zealand Final, the pundits seem convinced that only an act of god can stop India meeting New Zealand in the Final.

New Zealand v England

India v West Indies

For the marketing men, an India v England Final is the enticing prospect: east v west; former colony v colonial master, the inventor of the game v its biggest powerhouse. A Final without India is simply inconceivable and if the Final involves some historical payback, so much the better. However, part of the fun for many fans is to play down England’s chances of getting anywhere near the Final as far as possible.

Many England fans are looking at tomorrow’s match and thinking that they have got the easiest opponent of the other Semi-Finalists. Some New Zealand fans are indignant, thinking that their side is being unjustly made underdogs. Think again. New Zealand have shown imperious form so far. They are unbeaten. They have been put under severe pressure, most notably by Australia in their first game and came out on top. They then went out and beat the hosts by a wide margin despite defending a small total. The New Zealand spinners have tied the opposition in knots. And New Zealand have played every game at a different ground and won each time.

Interestingly, both Semi-Finals were previewed in the warm-ups. India hammered the West Indies in Kolkata, albeit in a 15 v 15 game, while England won comfortably against New Zealand, inflicting their only defeat of the tour of India so far in an 11 v 12 game. However, that was a very different New Zealand side. Perhaps it was that defeat that led to New Zealand’s change from a seam-based attack (4 seamers v England) to a spin-based attack in the competition proper. Many pundits thought that by dropping their two best seamers and playing two spinners with no great record they were making a disastrous mistake, but it has worked brilliantly and, in that warm-up defeat, Santner was their most effective bowler, with 2-24, including a rare maiden (there have been only five in the entire tournament). No one has yet been able to get after the three spinners. Santner and Sodhi have 17 wickets between them and are going at only just over 5 runs per over. Of bowlers who have bowled at least eight overs in the competition, only Liam Plunkett and, very marginally, Suleiman Benn have been more economical than Ish Sodhi.

While England will stick to a seam-based attack, New Zealand will stick to their formula of three spinners: who will read the conditions best? Who will cope best with the opposition attack?

The game is a very open one. As Trevor Bayliss put it – not very tactfully – New Zealand are not a team of superstars: they win by working as a team and have, for many years, perfected a system whereby the whole is so much more than the sum of the parts. It is what makes New Zealand such dangerous opponents. On form alone, it should be no contest: New Zealand have looked far and away the best team in the tournament. England, in contrast, scraped past Sri Lanka and Afghanistan and were asked to make a record chase against South Africa. Sooner or later you feel, someone will ask the same questions that Chris Gayle asked and there will be no answer. However, this being England, you can never tell: the fact that they have extricated themselves from some tight spots and that they are coming in under the radar as a seriously underrated team can only help. The bookies have New Zealand as slight favourites but, in a day-night game, much may depend on the Toss: if New Zealand win it and bowl, they will feel supremely confident; if England are chasing, they know that they can chase down any target.\

The second Semi-Final looks an open and shut case. India have been erratic so far but, now that they have faced down and won two elimination contests that seemed lost, you would be rash to bet against them, especially having fought their way out of the tougher group. For all the remarkable form that the West Indians have shown (and do not put much weight on that defeat against Afghanistan), it is difficult to see India stumbling now. Both teams are basing their campaigns on powerful batting, with the bowling generally being the weaker suit, that remarkable last over against Bangladesh excepted. India can take confidence from the fact that someone has always stepped up when needed.

Virat Kohli’s effort against Australia was truly remarkable, but there must be a little concern that no one else has really got any runs (only Dhoni and Yuvraj have more than 50 in the tournament). Similarly, the bowling has been based on economy and not strike-power: the 24 wickets taken by India have been shared around by six bowlers with Pandya’s five the best haul, although he is also by far the most expensive of the bowlers.

For the West Indies, Russell, Gayle and Samuels all have useful runs and Badree, Bravo and Russell all have wickets, while Benn has shown extraordinary control and economy. On paper, their form looks better but, as any Indian fan will tell you, “they haven’t played us yet”. Now, in the Semi-Finals, logic no longer applies: it is raw emotion and India will have tens of thousands of baying fans creating a hostile atmosphere, utterly convinced that their heroes cannot lose. Can a near 37 year old Chris Gayle, who surely will not be playing when the next World Cup or World T20 are played, go out with a bang? If Gayle were to fall cheaply, India will have a massive lift – if Gayle gets in, India will have to find a way of stopping him. The match may depend on which of Gayle and Kohli performs best on the day.

I will go, tentatively, for a England v India Final but, in this tournament, too much is tending to depend on the Toss: in these day/night games, the side that is chasing has always had a big advantage – in the first Semi-Final at least, the teams are so well balanced that on such things may, unfortunately, hang the entire match.

The World T20: Houdini England in Extremis. India on the Brink.

 

The World T20

Houdini England in Extremis. India on the Brink.

 

March 26^th  2016

 

Whisper it quietly, but the prospect of a World T20 in India without an Asian side in the Semi-Finals just got a step closer and the odds on dark horses England have just got a lot shorter. For the third time in a row England got themselves into an awful mess, vindicating the sceptics (many of them English) who expected South Africa to sneak through thanks to an England meltdown and somehow managed to extricate themselves. If you had to pick two bowlers to take and turn a situation that seemed lost, in the last two overs, with two established batsmen apparently cruising to a comfortable win, all too few runs to play with and the batsmen in control, it would not have been Jordan and Stokes.

After Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali had gone for a collective 4-0-63-0, reviving a Sri Lankan side that had looked dead and buried, Chris Jordan followed an initial spell of 2-0-16-1 with 2-0-12-3 in overs 17 and 19 to swing the pendulum back towards England. Ben Stokes then bowled an over of pinpoint yorkers to concede just 4 from the final over.

As against South Africa and against Afghanistan, England alternated brilliance with spells of utter dross. Fortunately, the Sri Lankans we capable of even worse dross, without quite touching the heights of brilliance that England managed when the mood took them, despite the almost single-handed efforts of the valiant Angelo Matthews who, in the end, simply could not make up for the inadequacy of his teammates on his own. Matthews top-scored, almost shepherded the chase home and was the most economical bowler for his team. While England staggered like a disorientated drunk to 8-1 after 3 overs of the powerplay, Sri Lanka trumped them with 15-4. 99-3 after 15 overs left the pundits wondering if England could get to around 140 and a possibly defensible total – the last 5 overs though went for 72-1, as Sri Lanka loosened the noose and offered their erstwhile victim an easy chair, a brandy and a cigar. 140 became 150 and then 170. However, despite the hapless Moeen Ali going for 21 in the sixteenth over, Sri Lanka could only garner 50-3 from the last 5 overs and 29-3 from the last four. From the twelfth over until the start of the nineteenth, Sri Lanka were always ahead, sometimes well ahead, of England at the same stage but, like a 400 metre runner who ties up in the last few metres and sees his or her rivals surge past on the line, Sri Lanka’s powerful sprint for the line ended in a despairing and impotent stagger.

The fate of Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali should have put the last nail in the coffin of the theory that England could play three spinners. Had England played a rookie spinner instead of one the seamers (probably Ben Stokes), they would have lost. Adil Rashid was the revelation of the Big Bash and has had some fine performances for England in all formats in the last year, but Moeen Ali, Adil Rashid and Joe Root have gone at an average of 10-an-over so far in the tournament. In contrast, Liam Plunkett has cost 4.4 runs per over and even the heavily (and unfairly) criticised Chris Jordan has gone for only 8.5.

England look set to play New Zealand in the 1^st Semi-Final in Delhi, scene of today’s match. However, were the West Indies to relax and slip up against Afghanistan, England could still top Group 1 and end up playing Australia or India in Mumbai.

West Indies v Afghanistan is the warm-up. The West Indies have been in imperious form so far and it seems inconceivable that Afghanistan can inconvenience them, but T20 does not always obey the tenets of logic and Afghanistan have pushed Sri Lanka, England and South Africa hard without quite being able to force a win. The day-night match that follows is though, begging the pardon of India v Pakistan, THE biggest match of the tournament so far. Whoever wins goes to the second Semi-Final in Mumbai to play the Winner of Group 1, the losing side goes home. The two biggest sides in world cricket are fighting for their lives when most pundits expected this match to be a preview of the Final. For India, the #1 side in T20 to fail to qualify for the Semi-Finals in their own tournament is almost inconceivable, even more so given that they are the IPL specialists: the biggest, the baddest, the toughest T20 warriors in the world, who play their cricket in the world’s finest T20 finishing school. If India lose, Asia will be left without a representative in the Semi-Finals. India were a distant second best to New Zealand, somehow scraped past Bangladesh and beat Pakistan convincingly. Expectations are high and the pressure to win at home higher still.

In front of India is an Australian side that failed in a modest chase against New Zealand, suffered a major wobble against Bangladesh before winning and then beat Pakistan fairly comfortably. Like England, both sides seem vulnerable but, while Australia have gradually started to show their best form, India have been erratic. It suggests that Australia should start as slight favourites, especially if the large and excitable crowd starts to turn against their team.

The World T20: Could the Elimination Matches Leave no Asian Sides in the Semi-Finals?

 

The World T20

Could the Elimination Matches Leave no Asian Sides in the Semi-Finals?

 

March 25^th  2016

 

The West Indies did England a big favour by leaving their future in their own hands in Group 1, while India set up a winner-takes-all contest in Group 2. However, to give themselves a double chance of progress, England needed the West Indies to beat South Africa by a comfortable margin and get their Net Run-Rate down below their own: in succumbing to a narrow loss only, South Africa ensured they will have a chance to progress still if England lose to Sri Lanka because their Net Run-Rate is comfortably the best of the three teams still in contention. The scenarios are fairly simple:

1.      If England win, they qualify for the Semi-Finals, almost certainly against New Zealand at Delhi on Wednesday (the tiny “if” and “but” is that a huge England win, combined with a defeat for the West Indies against Afghanistan, could see England top the group and play in the second Semi-Final instead).

2.      If England lose, they are out as their NRR is inferior to South Africa’s and can only get worse in a defeat.

3.      If England lose to Sri Lanka, the second qualifier from Group 1 will be decided in the final Group match between Sri Lanka and South Africa. If Sri Lanka win both remaining games, they qualify and two big wins, combined with a West Indian defeat against Afghanistan could even see them top the group. If Sri Lanka beat England and lose to South Africa, South Africa will, almost certainly qualify on NRR barring a huge NRR swing relative to South Africa.

In Group 2 the scenarios have been simplified as Pakistan lost to Australia and are now eliminated. Now, whoever wins the India v Australia clash will qualify for the Semi-Finals. Again, barring the combination of a huge defeat for New Zealand against Bangladesh and huge win for either India or Australia, New Zealand will play the first Semi-Final at Delhi and the winner of India v Australia will play (almost certainly) West Indies in Mumbai.

In summary:

Group 1 – winner: West Indies, England or Sri Lanka; runner-up: West Indies, England, South Africa or Sri Lanka. Definitely eliminated: Afghanistan.

Group 2 – winner: New Zealand, India or Australia; runner-up, New Zealand, Australia or India; eliminated: Pakistan and Bangladesh.

England are in the unusual position of being warm favourites against Sri Lanka. Despite speculation that Liam Dawson could be picked as third spinner, the only likely change is a fit again Alex Hales coming back for James Vince. The braver option of Dawson replacing Ben Stokes, giving England three seamers and three spinners seems unlikely to be risked: the danger is that Sri Lankan batsmen, who are comfortable against spin, could feast on a nervous rookie, while Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid bowled just five overs between them against Afghanistan. However, Sri Lanka are not Afghanistan, even if their batting is misfiring badly as they struggle to replace retired stars. England will definitely want to chase in their day-night game, however valiantly their bowlers defended a modest target against Afghanistan.

When India and Australia both lost their first game of the tournament to New Zealand they knew that survival would boil down to their game. Pakistan, who could have gate-crashed the party, have been eliminated, both beating them fairly comfortably. Pakistan have been a huge disappointment and went down meekly against Australia when they knew that it was better not to die wondering. Australia though are not a side that inspires fear any longer and kept them interested almost until the end.

India are lucky to be in the competition still. Well beaten by New Zealand, they should have lost to Bangladesh. However, they are still in with a chance of qualification and carry the expectations of a fifth of the world’s population and, as the Bangladesh game showed, know how to get out of a tight corner. Failing to qualify for the Semi-Finals of the competition in front of their own fans is simply not an option. Australia crumbled under pressure against New Zealand and stuttered against Bangladesh, but Australia are the ultimate survivors. Who will win this pressure clash is almost impossible to call.

There is, though, a real chance that none of the five Asian sides who have qualified will make the Semi-Finals: who would have imagined that before the tournament?

The World T20: England & India's Jekyll and Hyde Campaigns Continue

 

The World T20

England & India’s Jekyll and Hyde Campaigns Continue

 

March 24^th  2016

 

“Beat Afghanistan and England will have one foot in the Semi-Finals”. If only things were so simple. There is now a strong possibility that England could win their last group game with Sri Lanka, making it three wins from four and still fail to reach the Knock-Out stage.

England, South Africa and Sri Lanka are locked in a battle for, most likely, one place in the Semi-Finals, assuming that the West Indies do beat Afghanistan, although there are multiple scenarios, including one that sees West Indies, England, Sri Lanka and South Africa all sweating on the last round of group matches.

England have to beat Sri Lanka on Saturday and then hope that other results fall the right way. Two wins for South Africa against Sri Lanka and West Indies will see their big NRR advantage in play and would set up a likely elimination for England, with West Indies and South Africa going through on NRR. If West Indies beat South Africa on Good Friday, England will go through with a win against Sri Lanka on Saturday. There is though also a all too plausible scenario whereby South Africa, England and Sri Lanka are all locked on two wins, with the West Indies on four. While Sri Lanka, the holders, know that they will progress if they beat South Africa and England.

This has been a tournament of what might have been for Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Bangladesh should have beaten India. Afghanistan could have beaten South Africa and should have beaten England. At 57-6 after 9.2 overs the question was whether or not England could bat out 20 overs. At 85-7 after 14.3, the question was whether or not England could reach 120 and give their bowlers something to defend. However, the last 3 overs went for 44 (31 was the next best 3-over haul in the match) and 142-7 was always going to be a tough target on a pitch where free-scoring proved surprisingly difficult. The difference between the sides ultimately was the 25 runs taken by Moeen and Willey from the penultimate over. Afghanistan needed a good start to their reply induce panic in England and settle their own jangling nerves, but failed to get it. At 13-3 after 18 balls the Afghanistan challenge was all but over and, save momentarily, late in the innings, they were always behind England at the same stage.

For England it was a further reminder of the good and the bad about this team. As against South Africa, an awful display in the first half of the match got them in terrible trouble, but a remarkable fight-back scrambled the win in extremis. While the England side of two years ago would have accepted its fate and slipped to a humiliating defeat, this England was able to come back and still win somehow: while watching them is never going to be relaxing, it is a useful talent to have in any sport to be able to scramble a win despite an awful performance.

What though of India? Self-confessed favourites to win, they were one ball from almost certain elimination from their home tournament in a format that they profess to own. Bangladesh needed just two runs from the last three balls with wickets in hand. The over had gone 1 4 4. An edge past the ‘keeper would win it. What followed was pure theatre: catch in the deep, catch in the covers and then a run-out, last ball, trying to run a bye to Dhoni, who had the presence of mind to take off his right glove, standing back to allow him to throw if the batsman missed and tried to scramble the bye, but then ran up to the stumps and break them rather than risking the throw that he had prepared. Dhoni won the race to the stumps by a short head and Bangladesh had somehow managed to contrive to lose.

With New Zealand already qualified, the India v Australia match previously identified as the key game becomes an eliminator. India could lose it and still qualify, but they would depend on Pakistan beating Australia. Pakistan’s slim hopes also depend on winning that clash and setting up an Australia-India-Pakistan tie on two wins each.

It is timely to remember that, even in this short format with its maximum of six matches per team, no side has ever gone through the tournament unbeaten. That fact might just encourage one of the teams that has ridden its luck so far to qualify: India and England could teach Houdini a thing or two with their performances in this tournament and one or other of them may yet make that luck pay dividends.

The World T20: Manic England’s Best & Worst, India's D-Day

 

The World T20

Manic England’s Best & Worst, India's D-Day

 

March 18^th  2016

 

Lessons from a crazy match:

 

1.      England will chase any total that they are set with a good chance of making the runs.

2.      The seamers are essentially helpless in this tournament against aggressive batsmen.

3.      For the remaining group games either Liam Plunkett (high pace) or a third spinner (Dawson) has to replace one of the seamers.

When the opposition are 96-0 after 7 overs, despite David Willey’s first over going for just two runs, you know that you have a real issue. Fans were thinking that England would be  chasing 250 at least, possibly more than 300. Certainly, any hope of a meaningful contest seemed misplaced and black humour suggested that South Africa would declare after ten overs and have enough to win (125-2) because England would surely collapse to a massive defeat.

The scenarios for qualification were clear: win and a win against Afghanistan would put England very close; lose and everything would hang on beating Afghanistan and Sri Lanka and other results falling in place; lose badly and it would be all but over mathematically.

What happened? The first thing was that in overs 11, 12 & 13, Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali imposed some control for the first time. Despite Adil Rashid’s first two overs going for 13 and 14, he had also got rid of AB de Villiers and Eoin Morgan, this time, allowed him to continue. The result was a period of three overs that went for just 14, with the bonus of Hashim Amla’s wicket. In the context of the match it was like bowling three straight maidens: they were by far the cheapest three overs of the match (the next best was the 20 that South Africa’s bowlers conceded in overs 7-9). It meant that thoughts of chasing 270-280 were forgotten: the chase would be huge, but not totally impossible with a team of attacking batsmen on a flat pitch. The last five overs added 63, but even that was far fewer than had seemed probable at one point.

Second, England were liberated by what appeared to be a near-impossible chase and came out swinging. Jason Roy hit 21 from the first over and Hales and Roy 23 from the second. Even though Hales fell to the fifteenth ball of the innings, after 3 overs England were 56-1 and the back of the chase was broken.

Third, South Africa’s bowling fell apart even worse than England’s had: 5 wides in the first over adding to Roy’s four boundaries; England gave away 2 wides (and 2 byes), South Africa offered 10 wides that gave away 20 runs. With the extra runs and balls keeping the score ticking over. England were never behind the run rate and could afford some quiet overs and even a mini-collapse at the end and still win with some comfort.

Over the next few days the qualifying scenario will unfold. In Group 2 – the group of death – it looks as if India’s game against Australia has become a virtual eliminator: two defeats for either side, both having lost their first game, would leave qualifying very difficult. However, India have an even bigger must-win game first. India play Pakistan before playing Australia and with the stakes high, a Pakistan win would leave the Australia v India game even more highly charged as India would have to win and even then would face elimination. With tensions so high between the regional rivals, things could get nasty, particularly if India look like losing the match. For India, home team and overwhelming pre-tournament favourites to start with two defeats, particularly if one of them is to their greatest rival, might be too much for some of their passionate fans to bear. Similarly, with two wins from two, like New Zealand, Pakistan would be almost through to the Semi-Finals. India will be under a lot of pressure and did not react well to it against New Zealand.

In Group 1, Sri Lanka v South Africa later in the week looks like a key game but, here, the qualifying scenario is less clear with only three games played: South Africa know that they have to win it. 

The World T20: England Show their Promise and their Frailty

 

The World T20

England Show their Promise and their Frailty

 

March 16^th  2016

 

When I was a kid, there was only one place to be around 6pm on a Saturday evening. Grandstand, with its miscellany of sport and results had finished. The early evening news had come and gone. It was time to get behind the sofa and watch Doctor Who in safety. It is the same for hardened England fans watching their team: you know it is going to terrify you, but any offer to turn off the TV and end the suffering is rejected indignantly – however much it leaves you a nervous, trembling wreck, you just have to watch. England’s T20 campaign promises to leave us in the same, terrified-but-unable-not-to-watch condition.

In the warm-up against New Zealand, England shipped 169-8 and looked likely to be chasing 210-220 at one stage, before reaching their target with some comfort thanks to a good start and contributions all down the order. Chris Jordan was the most economical of the seamers, with the spinners retrieving control. Against Mumbai CA it was the same story: top order runs, a good, if not imposing total and then behind on runs and wickets all through the Mumbai chase until it ran out of oxygen two overs before inflicting an embarrassing defeat.

So, the lesson from the warm-ups was that runs would not be a problem, but defending them would be and that if the spinners did not take control in the middle overs, England would be in real trouble.

And so it came to pass. Although the England start was not quite as jet-propelled as some have been recently, 92-1 after 11 overs gave a platform for the big-hitters. You would have thought that 182 would have been plenty to defend. More so even when David Willey, the marginal choice, followed two wides with a straight one and then a wicket and two massive appeals for LBW (one of which would have been umpire’s call). Four legitimate deliveries and we had already seen enough action for a whole powerplay. With the West Indians there is always that feeling that a Calypso-collapso is close – even more so in this team that has been affected by withdrawals and internal dissention – and that one wicket might bring several. When Adil Rashid came on and immediately dismissed Samuels, there was an opportunity there. Three tight overs and the West Indies could have started to self-destruct quickly. However, Chris Gayle may be a veteran who will be 37 by the end of the summer, but he can spot danger. Adil Rashid’s first nine balls left him on 1.3-0-7-1 and threatening to suffocate the West Indian challenge – his next three went for 6, 6, 1. Eoin Morgan panicked and took Adil Rashid out of the attack, removing his best wicket-taking and control option. It left Chris Jordan as his only option for control.

With Adil Rashid not seen again, Gayle was allowed to feast on Ben Stokes – economy in T20s, 9.5 – and David Willey (with an economy of 9.5, only fractionally less expensive). With Reece Topley learning his trade, also with an economy over 9, Eoin Morgan had tied one hand behind his back by playing expensive seamers when it has been the spinners who have posed the problems up to now. It is quite possible that whoever was bowled would have been severely treated, but it was significant that, despite a brutal mugging in an over that ended with three consecutive maximums, Moeen Ali was comfortably the most economical bowler on the day for England after Chris Jordan while, for the West Indies it was Sulieman Benn. For England, Willey, Topley and Stokes were all more expensive than Adil Rashid. Chris Gayle saw who the dangerman was and deliberately targeted him, while Eoin Morgan made the mistake of ensuring the effectiveness of the tactic.

England now face a match against South Africa on Friday that is not quite an eliminator, although defeat would leave England depending on other results to survive in the competition, as well as needing to win their last two matches by big margins. It would be hard to come back from a second defeat.

However, it is as well to remember 2010. England lost a rain-affected game to the West Indies. They then played Ireland and set them just 120 to win, which left England in real danger of a rapid and embarrassing elimination. Had rain not intervened or, worse, intervened just enough to set a shortened chase (as had been the case in the West Indies game), it is quite possible that England would have been out of the competition. As it was, they qualified for the second round without a win, thanks to having lost to the West Indies by a smaller margin than Ireland had. The rest is history: they won their next five matches and the trophy.

The World T20: Indian Confidence. Irish Dreams Shattered. Englishmen Watching from Behind the Sofa

 

The World T20

Indian Confidence. Irish Dreams Shattered. Englishmen Watching from Behind the Sofa.

 

March 15^th  2016

 

If you read the previews and the views of the fans, there is really no point in holding the World T20: it is all decided. India, playing at home, are overwhelming favourites, despite the fact that no home team has ever won it and the favourites have rarely ended up as the winners. Group 2 looks by far the stronger of the two and the supposition is that the top two in Group 1 will dispute the Final, with India coming out as winners.

The CricInfo poll leaves no doubts. 47.4% of respondents picked India as the team to beat, followed by Pakistan on 19.5%. The teams in Group 2 fill the top three places and five of the top six in the fan poll on the likely winner. In contrast, fewer than 1% of respondents backed England to win – while, to put it in perspective, 2.5% back Afghanistan.

Of course, cricket is not played on paper, nor are results decided by fan polls. The opening group game has seen India humiliated by New Zealand and by an spinner, born in India, who averages 53 in Tests, another who is trying to establish himself in the side and by a veteran who averages 46.9 in ODIs. While the best T20 bowler in the tournament – Ravi Ashwin – took 1-32, Sodhi, McCullum and Santer produced combined figures of 12-0-44-9. While New Zealand scored relatively freely against the Indian spinners, New Zealand’s unheralded trio proved almost unplayable, despite the pre-match prediction that the dew would make picking them suicidal.

The World T20 format though is such that even in this expanded version with more group games, four wins from six matches could see a team lift the trophy. When England won in 2010, how many people remember that they qualified for the second phase despite not winning either group game and could easily have lost to Ireland before rain saved them from potential defeat?

With the World T20 main tournament just starting, without Ireland, who have now slipped to 16^th of the 17 teams with an official T20 ranking, just a fraction ahead of Oman, CricInfo’s Tm Wigmore has produced a very interesting article on the Irish debacle in qualifying (http://www.espncricinfo.com/icc-world-twenty20-2016/content/story/982797.html). Aside from the fact that their entire tournament was decided by just two erratic overs in a match that seemed won, with a wash-out in their second game ending their interest, this articles echoes several conversations that I had last week with fans after their elimination: the other Associates and Affiliates are catching up, the Irish attack is beginning to look somewhat long in the tooth (T20 is a young man's game) and there may well have been some relaxing of standards. Overall though, the feeling is that the time of the golden generation is ending. Seven of the Irish squad are 25 & under and the performances of George Dockrell, in particular, were excellent when he got a chance, but the seam attack is all 30+ and was showing it. Tim Murtagh has been poached from England to lead the attack on the tenuous grounds of an Irish grandparent, but will be past 35 at the end of this season. While Tim Murtagh could have played Tests (he was on the fringes) & Boyd Rankin has played one, both are near the end of their careers now: neither should be around for the next World T20: they'll do fine in the Intercontinental Cup due to their experience, but should not play T20 if Ireland are to move forward.

Despite the understandable skepticism of fans who see their current team as simply not good enough, the Irish would, at their peak, have competed well with the lower-ranked Test sides, particularly at home. Their player base is not far short of Zimbabwe's and may well be larger and the facilities are improving. I can well imagine that Zimbabwe and Bangladesh would not have enjoyed an easy time at Stormont or Clontaff and that the West Indies would have found the Irish tough opponents on their home turf. However, the point that many of the Irish do not play regular FC cricket is a good one. Most are cast as limited-overs specialists. Dockrell, once tipped as England's next spinner, languishes in Somerset 2nd XI. The Middlesex Irish are most 2nd XI or limited-overs options and even Tim Murtagh himself knows that given the strength of the Middlesex seam attack he is not guaranteed 1st XI cricket unless there are England calls. Able to call on Tim Murtagh, Toby Roland-Jones, Steve Finn and James Harris, with Tom Helm coming through and Neil Dexter as a very good fourth seamer, it is only the fact that the batting has tended to have the stability of a blancmange that has stopped Middlesex from making a sustained challenge in the Championship. If Tim Murtagh struggles to get regular cricket, as he may, Ireland will have to ask themselves if a 35 year old seamer who was never really express pace is what they need to lead their attack. All the Irish seamers in the World T20 were the wrong side of 30 and started to creak at times. Indeed, one of the unkinder – but not inaccurate – comments was that Murtagh’s new ball partner has shown England, with some erratic overs, just what they were missing when he joined Murtagh in switching allegiance.

If the World T20 had been held immediately after the tour of the UAE, England fans would have felt supremely confident. Having competed hard in the Test series, but lost, England lost the first ODI and the fans predicted a bloodbath; England then won the remaining ODIs and T20s. A young side – and the team in the UAE was little more than a strong Lions team – looked as if their feared no one and could take on and be a match for anyone. A mauling by South Africa changed everything. However, there are reasons to feel that England could do well: in Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali England have two spinners who have shown how well they can tie sides down when there is some help in the pitch. Hales and Roy are giving express starts and the middle order, with Morgan, Buttler and Stokes can turn a match in a few overs and Moeen Ali, Adil Rashid and Chris Jordan are all capable of producing devastating blitzes at the death. However, the collapse in South Africa in which the last five matches on tour and six of the last eight were all lost illustrates the fragility of the side and why it is just a likely that they come away red-faced as it is that they make the Final. A good New Zealand side was beaten in the warm-up match, with Moeen and Adil Rashid wresting control, but only a few weeks earlier they were well-beaten by the same South African team that will be England’s second opponents here. To be sure of qualifying, England must beat Afghanistan, plus two of West Indies, South Africa and Sri Lanka.

With just 10 points in the ICC T20 table separating New Zealand in 2^nd and Sri Lanka in 8^th, in theory the field is wide open. With the matches being played in India, even Bangladesh, the lowest ranked of the participating teams, should not be discounted. One brilliant innings or an inspired over may be the difference between a side reaching the semi-Finals and being eliminated: once in the semi-Finals, you only need to win two games and so anything can happen. One thing is certain, whoever wins, perfect 20-20 hindsight will make their victory have been inevitable to all.