England Slide Back Into An Avoidable Crisis

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Back to Square One

 

September 1^st 2014

 

Alistair Cook must be wondering why he did not sit out this series as many people hoped that he would. Having ended the Test series with scores of 95, 70*, 17 and 79 in three victories, his position was impregnable as a captain and his batting form was returning. He had nothing to gain and a lot to lose by playing in the ODIs. Maybe he thought that, by playing and winning he would consolidate his position and consolidate his batting form, eliminating the calls for Eoin Morgan to take over. Instead, England are right back in crisis. Cook is being questioned again and his batting form is looking increasingly shaky once more. It is such an unnecessary crisis.

Alistair Cook has had 25 international innings for England this year. Just five times has he failed to reach double figures – and three of those were his first three innings of the year – but he has passed 50 just four times. That is 16 times in 25 innings that he has reached double figures, but failed to get past his bogey score of 44, at which he has now fallen three times this year. This is a symptom of the batsman’s mind not being right, either through exhaustion, or because it is not completely centred on the job.

England are looking totally clueless in this series, which is just what many fans feared would happen.

However, the problem is not just Alistair Cook. Ian Bell is also being questioned. He has had 27 international innings this year, averaging 34.5. Bell has not had such a bad summer, with 3x50 and a big century and a total of 7x50 and that century in his 27 innings since the New Year. However, a run of three low scores in the context of a losing side, has started speculation going again, particularly about his ODI role, due to concerns that he has not got a change of gear to accelerate the scoring. In an ideal side you need one steady batsman who the strokemakers can build around, a role that Jonathon Trott played with great success, but two accumulators in the top three is too many.

Ben Stokes was one of the successes of the Australian winter, but has just one score above 5 in his last 11 international innings. If he were taking wickets, you would forgive it – bat him at 9 and move on – but his last 10 innings for England (twice he was not even called on to bowl) have also produced just 8 wickets, five of them in the Lords Test.

At the same time, people are beginning to look at Eoin Morgan again. Before the season started there was a case for him getting the ODI captaincy and, possibly, even the Test captaincy, leading to some speculation that there could be a natural evolution in the side in the same way that Michael Vaughan’s ODI success ended Nasser Hussain’s Test captaincy. It could be that Alistair Cook has not been keen to rest from this series to avoid the risk of Morgan winning it and putting him under pressure but, despite a good summer for Middlesex, certainly his best for some years, Eoin Morgan is having a desperately poor summer for England.

Eoin Morgan started the year brilliantly in the ODIs against Australia, with 50, 106, 54, 33, 39 but, more to the point, despite that amazing run of scores, in 25 matches this year he has just 602 runs (average 25.1). Since the ODI series in Australia ended, he has done almost nothing of note, with just one fifty and, in fact, just that one score over 40, averaging 14.1 in the 20 matches since the ODI series in Australia ended.

Eoin Morgan has definitely not made a case for himself as far as taking over as England ODI captain is concerned. It could just be that the pressure of being England’s go-to batsman in the side for so long, the person who had to rescue situations time and again, is telling on him. Right now his place in the side is starting to look in danger, although it seems inconceivable that England could go to the World Cup without him.

In this series the main question is whether or not England can save anything from the wreckage. Cook and Hales have given England two solid starts, with partnerships of 54 and 82. The problem has been the collapse when the batsmen should normally be accelerating against the change bowlers. In both games, Hales has shaped well and then got tied down and got himself out trying to relieve the pressure. Today England were 82-0 after 17.5 overs and looking really good. The next 17.5 overs produced 67 runs and 6 wickets. One wicket is producing three or four, as the middle order struggles to work the bowling around. Some rather modest Indian spinners are being allowed to tie down batsmen who are scared to come out and attack them as they would in a Test. However, if Alex Hales can work out how to keep the scoreboard moving in overs 10-20 and get through his sticky patch, a murderous century looks to be there for the taking.

Although Steve Finn did not have a nightmare today, his pace was well down and he was comfortably the most expensive of the bowlers apart from Joe Root. The temptation would be to bring in Gurney and Ali for Finn and Stokes to give more variation in the bowling. There is a real case for bringing in Ballance for Bell.

Longer term, I might make James Taylor ODI captain and give him the rest of the winter and the World Cup. It probably will not happen, because a 4-0 defeat would just entrench Alistair Cook deeper in his bunker, but it would be a huge statement of intent for the future.

Alistair Cook Under Pressure Again

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

India’s Chance to Re-open the England Crisis

 

August 30^th 2014

 

After the Lords Test it was hard to see where England could go. Things are strikingly similar here. The series is 1-0 after an indecisive first match and a crushing Indian win in conditions that should have suited England in the second. The captain is again under pressure and the angry reaction to Graeme Swann’s comments is so similar to the Alistair Cook of Lords, earlier in the summer. Alistair Cook us not a happy bunny and, as it is rabbit-hunting season in Spain, he would be well-advised to avoid a trip to the Costa del Sol: with his luck a hunter would be liable to add Cook to his bag.

In the captain’s last 14 innings over 10 games an alarming pattern has been established. He has 4x50, but eight times has reached double figures but not passed 28. Despite the heroics at Southampton, the mind and the batting are not quite right. Alistair Cook is getting himself in, but then getting out when the hard work has been largely completed.

There is still time for a change of tack with the ODI side, but now that England have showed their hand and stated clearly that Alistair Cook will continue as ODI captain – it would have been so easy to “rest” him for this series after a tough summer and completely defensible. Unfortunately, Middlesex’s miserable limited-overs and, after a promising start, even in the County Championship, has done nothing for Eoin Morgan’s ambitions – if he cannot turn Middlesex’s season around, he is hardly likely to be England’s saviour.

There is pressure for change today. Chris Jordan, despite a fine tour of Australia, needs to be sent back to Sussex for the Championship run-in. Ben Stokes is not making good on his promise and also needs more middle time getting back the bite that he showed in Australia. For England, Steve Finn and Harry Gurney coming in would be obvious changes. Playing Finn though would be a risk: his two games for the Lions against New Zealand A and Sri Lanka A brought him five wickets but both games he went for at least 65 runs in doing it. England’s nightmare scenario is that Steve Finn comes back and gets so roughly treated that he goes back to square one in his recovery. However, maybe it is time to bite the bullet in some relatively low-key games.

For India, things look more rosy. Their batsmen showed the spirit in pyjamas that they rarely showed in whites and gritted through some difficult overs in the morning to set a healthy total that was well beyond anything that they had set in the last five innings of the Test series. More of the same at Trent Bridge and the worst result that they will get from the series is to share it however, if England go 2-0 down, it is hard to imagine that it will not finish 4-0 to India.

England Threaten To Go Back To Square One

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Same Old Failings

 

August 28^th 2014

 

If you are an England fan, you will have come down to earth with a bump. If an Indian, maybe you think that things are not so bad after all. The match followed a strikingly similar pattern to the Indian warm-up match against Middlesex at Lords. India put in to bat in bowler-friendly conditions, looked completely at sea initially. The Test Match Special commentators were licking their lips at the prospect of an early finish in the same way that India’s early struggles in the warm-up at Lords made the decision to play eleven specialist batsmen look eminently sensible.

Against Middlesex, India were 35-2 after 8 overs and 55-3 after 15 and looking far from capable of coping with the conditions, or of setting a good total. A stand of 104 in 16.3 overs turned the match on its head. Middlesex eventually subsided against the spinners to 135.

Yesterday, after 10 overs, India were 26-2. Chris Woakes was on figures of 5-1-8-2. Would India reach 100? 150?

Jimmy Anderson’s 6^th over went for 10 runs and suddenly India were away. That one over released the suffocating pressure that had built up. 38 runs came from the next 5 overs and India were up and away and sailing out of sight.

After 34 overs, India were 148-4 and looking at a score around 250 before the bowlers lost the plot completely. 57 came off one horrific 4-over spell from Woakes, Jordan and Anderon. Game over. India saw their chance, took it and destroyed England.

England were actually well ahead in the chase up to the end of the 14^th over (63-3 against 52-2), but an inability to apply the acceleration that India had led to the regular loss of wickets and to the power-hitters in the middle order having to take outrageous chances in a futile attempt to break the shackles. The key time though was overs 15-18. Whereas India scored 29 runs in 4 overs, without losing a wicket and kick-starting their innings, England scored just 7. India’s innings never looked back, England’s was becalmed.

There was just one point at which England threatened to chase. From overs 26-30 England added 29 runs, accumulating steadily but then., critically, lost Morgan. When he went there was never a chance of a sting in the tail.

For England, the question is, where do they go from here? Compared to the first ODI in Australia there have been six changes: gone are Ballance, Bopara, Bresnan and Rankin. Bell has moved down from opening to #3 and Root from #3 to #4. Of course, no one could have predicted after the disastrous defeat at Lords in the 2^nd Test that England would come back and win the next three matches by steadily increasing margins. Something similar may happen here, but you would bet against it. Were England to suffer another heavy defeat at Trent Bridge on Saturday, the suspicion is that all the positives of the Tests will be forgotten and that Alistair Cook will again be with his back to the wall and fending off the critics who are calling for his head. He has already reacted angrily to Graeme Swann’s suggestions that he should not be playing ODIs for England. Despite better form of late, his last 10 matches for England (3 ODIs and 7 Tests) have still produced a sequence of 1, 56, 17, 28, 17. 16, 5, 10, 22, 95, 70*, 17, 79 and 19. Just two single figure scores in 14 innings but, tellingly, he has fallen eight times between 10 and 28. Those are not the numbers of a man happy with his game: he is getting in and then getting out. And the angry reaction to Graeme Swann similarly suggests that his mind is nowhere near right: someone who is in a happier place would have come out yesterday and scored a century and ended the debate with the force of big runs off the bat without the need to make an angry rebuttal.

New Format, Different Story?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

New Format, Different Ending?

 

August 25^th 2014

 
 

A few days of rest. A little blood-letting. A very desultory warm-up game at Lords. And into the pyjamas again.

The Indian press and establishment (and, to be honest, just about anyone else with an opinion) has vented its anger. Most have laid the blame squarely on Duncan Fletcher and/or MS Dhoni. The news that Ravi Shastri, who performed for India with great credit in the 1980s has arrived to oversee the ODIs and T20s has been taken as a shot over Duncan Fletcher’s bows. Given the byzantine way that Indian cricket operates at times, anything is possible. Certainly, many people thought that Duncan Fletcher’s highly determinist style would not be a great success in India and have been surprised that he has survived for so long. Fletcher’s biggest problem is to have been in charge as a side of legends became old, knowing that, in India, one does not drop legends however much it is in the long-term interests of the side. Right now, many people speculate that MS Dhoni may survive simply because he is the last legend in the side and so, will be able to pick his own moment and own terms to go.

Duncan Fletcher has re-built the Indian team. Young guns such as Ravi Ashwin, Pujara, Jadeja and Rahane have been introduced with some success and the side is now no longer overloaded with spin, offering some decent pace options to address the Achilles heel of the side outside the sub-continent. What Duncan Fletcher cannot control is the fact that young cricketers entering the game are increasingly adapting themselves to the needs of T20 cricket, with its promise of riches and no longer have the patience to play a Dravidian innings that lasts for 120 overs to save a game.

The best that can be said for the warm-up against Middlesex is that the large and very partisan crowd saw their side win comfortably, albeit against a team that has struggled in all three formats since June and who have hardly looked like winning a game against any opposition in the limited-overs formats. India played all 11 batsmen – MS Dhoni did not get a bat – and, at times, looked desperately short of confidence and any form themselves. After a shaky start, India built a decent position only to collapse horribly. However, Middlesex’s own batting form in the limited overs game is so horrible that their own collapse was worse still. Indian fans went home happy, but one wonders what, if anything, the management will have learnt from the game.

Traditionally, the side that wins the Test series loses the ODIs that follow. However, India’s ODI record in England is so poor that there is just a chance that this sequence may be broken. It leaves England the serious option of moving right up the ODI rankings to #2 or, if results fall their way, maybe even #1. Given the general impression that the England ODI team is in the doldrums – which it is – that would be a remarkable achievement.

However, with poor weather forecast and no floodlights, there is a real chance that the game will not happen. For Gloucestershire County Cricket Club, that would be it would be a real tragedy. I was a regular at the ground in the 1970s. Now, it has changed out of all recognition, with a great deal of investment put in to ensure that it is up to standard for international cricket. One of the largest outfields in the country, the boundaries come in to accommodate the temporary stands and there is more of a feel of a stadium to the ground, with it being much less open than for county matches.

The Gloucestershire staff have puts in enormous efforts to prepare the ground to welcome the players and fans. Bristol has a huge immigrant community and there is no question that with this being a public holiday, many thousands are eager to see their heroes perform.

India And The Dying Art Of Batting For A Draw

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

India Losing the Art of Batting for a Draw

 

August 19^th 2014

 
 

Yesterday I pointed out two sets of statistics that show how the nature of England v India Test series has changed in the last 4 years compared to the previous decade:

·         Between 2002 and 2008/9, there were 16 England v India Tests, in 5 series. India won 5 of the games, England 2, with 9 drawn. What is more, England failed to win any of the series, losing 3 and sharing 2.

 

o   56% of draws

·         Since 2011, the power balance has tipped completely in the opposite direction, with England winning 9 and drawing 2 of the 13 Tests and winning all three series.

o   15% of draws

Normally the reduced percentage of draws is attributed to the faster pace of Test cricket now, with teams scoring at a much higher run-rate than was typical in even the recent past. While this is a factor, it may not big as big a factor as you might think.

In both 2011 and 2014, England won the final Test of the series by an innings. What was the difference?

·         In 2011, the two Indian innings lasted a total of 185 overs.

·         In 2014, the two Indian innings lasted a total of 90.3 overs.

Have India’s innings just moved at a faster pace now? No, actually the run rate has been significantly lower.

·         In the final Test of 2011, India scored at 3.15 per over.

·         In the final Test of 2014, India scored at 2.67 per over.

The main difference is that Indian batsmen seem to be losing the capability to bat for a long time to try to save a match. This though was a key element of Duncan Fletcher’s strategy to move England from the bottom of the Test rankings in 1999 to be #1 (although England only reached that ranking finally under Andy Flower in 2011): play to avoid defeat and try to spring a victory from a position of safety.

Even though they lost the final Test in 2011 by an innings, the Indian batsmen took the match deep into the final afternoon and, at 262-3, even looked set to save the Test, before the loss of Mishra and Tendulkar in the space of four balls induced a collapse. In the corresponding match of 2014 the innings lasted the equivalent of less than a session and there was never any suggestion that India might be capable of saving the game, or even planting significant resistance in the hope that the weather might intervene and give a helping hand. What is more, the batsmen have been scoring significantly more slowly against a much less experienced and less potent attack, lacking a front-line spinner (for all his success, Moeen Ali is no Graeme Swann) and with back-up seamers who have just nine Tests between them, than they faced in 2011.

Whereas all logic suggested that the England attack, particularly Broad and Anderson, should be nearing exhaustion after seven Tests in two and a half months, including several back-to-back Tests, it was the Indian attack, with its much lighter load, that seemed to fade rapidly under the strain despite a preparation that seemed designed to ensure that the bowlers were peaking by the 3^rd or 4^th Test. Both Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad bowled more overs than any of the Indian attack and had also bowled almost 100 overs each against Sri Lanka, yet it was the England seamers who seemed fresher at the end of the series.

The proposed solution from some Indian fans? Only play short series in the future because Indian bowlers cannot be expected to last a 4 or 5-match series! The level of denial is astonishing: the alternative, to play a few fewer T20s and hone skills playing, for example, some County cricket in England, is not even deemed worthy of consideration. A generation of English cricket fans remember watching Bishan Bedi play for Northants, or Farokh Engineer for Lancashire, legends of the game who were immensely popular with the fans yet, then as now, although many Pakistanis have and still do come to England to play, Indians are few and far between and, when they do come, as Kapil Dev, or Sachin Tendulkar did, it has usually been short-term. Even so, many of the young generation or Indian players could learn a lot even in a single season of county cricket, quite apart from being great ambassadors for their country as the aforementioned players were.

Speaking of County cricket, today served-up one of the best finishes that a County match has seen for a long time. With Northants all but relegated mathematically with four games still to go (even four big wins might well not be enough to reach safety), the battle is on to avoid the second relegation position. The two sides that are second and third from bottom – Lancashire and Durham – fought out an epic battle. Lancashire knew that defeat would leave them in an almost unrecoverable position, while victory would pull them out of the relegation zone and pull Middlesex firmly into the battle for survival. After 3 days the draw looked a strong favourite until Durham collapsed horribly around lunch, from 73-1 to 187ao. Needing 107 to win in 36 overs, Lancashire seemed red-hot favourites until a Durham fightback of epic proportions reduced them to 36-5 and then 90-9. Listeners to the BBC County cricket commentaries had a treat as Martin Emerson and Scott Read gave a storming performance, bringing to life an agonising finale, with Lancashire scrambling a win with two balls to spare.

The BBC commentaries are brilliant and are producing a generation of passionate, articulate and knowledgeable commentators who bring the game to life and who know that they have a little more licence to be partisan than normal in sporting commentary and so get the fans involved too. Some of the best commentators on the county circuit make no attempt to hide their affiliation, while being scrupulously fair at the same time. The result is a service that is helping to bring County cricket to a far wider audience, who are finding it great entertainment.

With the Lancashire win, however agonic, ten points separate Durham from Middlesex, with Lancashire in between, four points behind Middlesex, but with a game more played. Here though is the rub. Durham have a home game to come against Northants that they will expect to win, potentially leapfrogging both Lancashire and Middlesex as a result. Middlesex play both Durham and Lancashire in their run in, finishing with a game at Old Trafford that is a potential relegation decider. A defeat to either Durham or, especially, Lancashire could see Middlesex go from topping the table after six games, to final day relegation. The final rounds of games are going to be very exciting indeed for the fans and fiercely contested. Three proud, passionate sides will be fighting for their cricketing lives and their BBC commentators will be bringing it to life with their usual skill and enthusiasm .

Series Reflections

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Indian Wipe Out

 

August 18^th 2014

 
 

457, 391-9d, 295, 342, 330, 178, 152, 161, 148, 94

The final number in the sequence of Indian scores was even lower than the greatest (English) optimist could have hoped. It was though sadly inevitable after a chastening first hour in which only the slow over-rate saved India from the ignominy of conceding 100 runs to England’s tail. Things could have been even worse because both Broad and Root were wrongly given out while hammering the Indian attack at 9-an-over. It was no great surprise that even a significant rain delay could not allow India to reach Tea. 29.2 overs. 143 minutes and it was “thanks for the game”.

1815 runs for 49 wickets in the first five innings of the series, or 37.0 runs per wicket.

733 runs for 50 wickets in the last five innings of the series, or 14.7 runs per wicket.

Many people have pointed to the first ball of the 12^th over of the first morning of the 3^rd Test as the key moment of the series. Pankaj Singh bowled a ball just outside off to Alistair Cook, who edged a gentle catch to Ravi Jadeja at third slip. Jadeja floored it, England obtained their first 50 opening partnership since Melbourne and Alistair Cook scored a possibly career-saving 95.

Ravi Jadeja. Was his mind completely on the game? How distracted was he by events off the field? Would he have taken the catch had it not been for the fuss surrounding the incident with Jimmy Anderson? Was it just coincidence that India lost focus after that incident as England became fired-up?

Interestingly, since the low point of series defeat against Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankans have come close – just 2 wickets away – from sharing a series against South Africa and are on the pointing of whitewashing Pakistan 2-0. Maybe that defeat was not quite as bad as it seemed at the time? That last day of the series, although leading to a dispiriting loss, was also arguably the point when England started to pull out of their own crash dive with a rearguard action that almost saved the Test, although they still had a couple of desperately bad sessions at Lords.

Before the series you would have reckoned that one of the two under fire captains would not survive the series. A month ago the odds were against Alistair Cook seeing out the series but, without ever looking quite convincing, he has averaged 49.7 with 3x50. There are still questions about his captaincy and he has still gone 13 months since his last century, but he lives to fight another day. MS Dhoni, in contrast, despite 4x50, has averaged only 33.9 – less than you would want from your #6 – and has looked increasingly poor as a wicket-keeper and lost as a skipper: the hideous statistic of conceding 101 runs in 69 balls against the England tail, on top of the 67 runs in 61 balls that Root and Jordan had added the previous evening showed how much things were allowed to drift. 168 runs in 130 balls from the fall of the 7^th wicket, 59 of them faced by England’s #9, 10 & 11. India must be wondering, however good MS Dhoni is in the short form of the game, if they would do better with a change of both wicket-keeper and captain.

Dhoni may go to Australia for the 3 Test series in December as captain on the grounds that there is no obvious alternative but, do the BCCI really want to risk a captaincy crisis in the light of a whitewash, as a prelude to the World Cup?

This series has also cemented a remarkable power shift in England v India Tests.

Since 2000 there have been 8 bilateral series.

·         Between 2002 and 2008/9, there were 16 England v India Tests, in 5 series. India won 5 of the games, England 2, with 9 drawn. What is more, England failed to win any of the series, losing 3 and sharing 2.

·         Since 2011, the power balance has tipped completely in the opposite direction, with England winning 9 and drawing 2 of the 13 Tests and winning all three series.
 
Despite angry denials, it is hard to avoid the suspicion that the advent of the IPL has brought on a change in mindset of Indian players. There is the opportunity to make millions in a format that does not explore techniques too severely, where a batsman can become a hero in half a dozen deliveries and where a bowler would rather have figures of 0-20 than 5-50, where slips are unheard of and seam movement and swing are discouraged lest they interrupt the flow of sixes over miniscule boundaries. Some players such as David Warner have shown that they can transfer skills successfully from T20 to Test cricket, but many more have built up inflated reputations based on a few overs of slogging whilst, at the same time, convincing themselves that they are rather special and that the basics do not matter.

India’s last five innings in the series have lasted 66.4 overs, 46.4 overs, 43 overs, 61.1 overs and 29.2 overs: 50 wickets in 247 overs, or a fraction over 8 sessions cricket. Just twice did they manage to survive the equivalent of two full sessions of play.

It was suggested that India did no better in 2011, with a team of experienced players but, even in the 4^th Test, which they lost by an innings to complete the 4-0 whitewash, India batted 94 and 91 overs. India lost and lost badly and had a much weaker bowling attack in 2011, but did not suffer the complete meltdown of 2014.

Inevitably, there will be questioning of the worth of the England victory in the light of India’s feeble resistance. “Ah yes! But only two months ago you lost to Sri Lanka”. Strangely, no one made the remark that Australia’s victory last winter was of little value because England’s resistance was so feeble and Australia had lost to the same opponents only a few months earlier. It is hard to know how to value England’s win, as it is to value Australia’s win last winter. In terms of victory margins, England’s dominance at the end of the Indian series has been just as great and possibly even greater than Australia’s was over England. And, like Australia, the turnaround in fortunes after the Chester-le-Street Test, was just as great. Nothing can hide the Sri Lanka defeat and nothing should, but that was against a different, less confident, struggling England team, still trying to work out its identity, with young players still trying to find their feet at this level. Much has been made of the inexperience of the Indian side but, its average age was two years older than England’s (28 to 26).

England can get a lot better with experience, if the remaining weaknesses are addressed successfully and the young players improve with experience. Series against South Africa, Australia and Pakistan (ranked #1, #2 & #4 in the ICC Test rankings, as of yesterday) in the next year will test their mettle, hone or break techniques and give a real idea of where they stand. The Test rankings can change rapidly, as Australia have shown by climbing from mid-table to #1 in a single series, which means that England’s position in the table today may have changed a lot in 12 months. Today, England are at #3, 20 points behind South Africa and 19 behind Australia, with Pakistan losing substantial ground behind when Sri Lanka confirmed their 2-0 win against Pakistan this morning, which pushed Sri Lanka up to #4, 3 points behind England.

The Final Act Of The Series?

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

Endgame

 

August 17^th 2014

 

457, 391-9d, 295, 342, 330, 178, 152, 161, 148, …

The only questions remaining are what number India will add to this sequence of scores and just when the final defeat will come? With England close to 250 ahead, most people seem to think that the match will end tonight. The biggest doubt may be whether or not England will require the extra half hour. Despite desperate efforts to waste time and a funereal over rate, India have only been able to stretch out the last three Tests a total of 21 sessions in total so far. Few would bet on them extending that much today. It is hard to believe that this match is not even half way through.

You can always think back to 1979 and the amazing Indian fightback in the 4^th Test at Trent Bridge when Sunil Gavaskar’s 221 almost carried India to a successful chase of 438, although their collapse as the target neared meant that the match could have gone either way given an extra 15 minutes of play. Do India have someone capable of matching Gavaskar’s feat? You can imagine it but, in the 1979 series, England at the height of their powers under Mike Brearley only won the 4-Test series 1-0 and India had a strong side, with players of the calibre of Gavaskar, Vengsarkar, Kapil Dev, Viswanath and Venkat. They were never overwhelmed as India have been since the second innings at the Ageas Bowl.

For England, the plan should be to let Root and Jordan continue their destructive partnership (67 in 61 balls, so far), enjoying themselves and trying to inflict more damage of shattered Indian morale. If Root can get his century and Jordan a useful 30 or 40, the lead will be around 300, England can declare well past the psychological barrier of 450 and set about India with a will. Hopefully Jordan and Woakes will be given a chance to do plenty of bowling and to win the match, with Broad and Anderson not being asked to do too much. I stick by my prediction: Chris Woakes will “win”  the match with a 5-for and England will not need the extra half hour. The one thing that might just extend the match into the fourth day is the threat of rain.

India's Tailspin Towards A Crashdive

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The Indian Tailspin

 

August 16^th 2014

 

457, 391-9d, 295, 342, 330, 178, 152, 161, 148, …

That is the series of Indian scores during this series. It is a steady downward progression and suggests that England may not need many more than 300 to win this match by an innings. India, who looked so imperious for two and a half Tests are, increasingly resembling the unconvinced masochist who can only whimper “please make it stop”. Their surrender in the second innings at the Ageas Bowl seems to have knocked all the fight out of them: since then things have only got worse.

Although England had good bowling conditions and a helpful pitch, India had the same later in the day and, while India were 62-6, England are 62-0 and batting with some assurance. If Robson and Cook can see out the first hour, big runs will be there for the taking. Sam Robson, in particular, has come in for some fearful stick since his century against Sri Lanka and, with Alex Hales making an ever-stronger case to play in all three formats for England, Robson desperately needs a century and will know that there is a strong likelihood that this will be his only innings in this Test in which to hang on to his place. Those who have followed County Cricket for years and, particularly Middlesex, know that as far back as 2011 those who knew him felt that he would be a fine Test player. Despite a century against Sri Lanka, his struggles have been obvious.

For the Caribbean series there is a strong probability that some players will be rested and others tried out. It would be no surprise to see both Hales and Robson competing there for the opening spot in the Ashes and Anderson and Broad rested, with Steve Finn asked to lead the attack along with Woakes, Jordan and Plunkett. Certainly, Jordan and Woakes have done a lot to answer their critics in this game; both are still learning their trade at this level and need the experience. I would be prepared to lay a small bet that Woakes will announce himself with a second innings 5-for in an innings win.

For India, it is hard to know where they can go from here with a series against Australia coming up. After encouraging series in South Africa and New Zealand, this has not been a great confidence-inducer. The batting looks terribly fragile, although lower-order runs have helped to massage the evidence a little – the 10^th wicket partnership brought some respectability to the Indian score here – and the bowling has looked less and less penetrative as the series has progressed. Worse still, when chances have been made, as often as not they have been missed and the lack of DRS has, undoubtedly, hurt India badly. India’s slip cordon has cost the side several hundred runs in dropped chances. As things have started to go wrong, heads have dropped. MS Dhoni has done his job with the bat and, early in the series, showed some inventive captaincy but, now, his unwillingness to move for chances that fly between the ‘keeper and first slip and his increasing immobility have hurt his side as much as Matt Prior’s did.

For England, the series is turning out to be sweet and sour. Players such as Jos Buttler and Liam Plunkett have bedded in as first choices. Ballance has been brilliant and Cook, Bell, Anderson and Broad recovered. Woakes and Jordan are bedding in, but India have been so poor in the last three Tests that it is hard to assess where England are really in their recovery process. However, you can only beat what is in front of you and winning this series 3-1 seemed a long way away after the Lords Test: in fact, after Lords, 3-0 to India looked the most likely result. Those who rubbish the England win will conveniently forget that India came into the series with some confidence, pointing to their last two away series and the betting was on a shared series with five draws. India certainly did not look so poor two months ago, but a rejuvenated England side is making them look very poor indeed.

Turning The Series On Its Head

 

 

Cricket 2014

 

The turnaround explained in numbers

 

August 14^th 2014

 

I am a firm believer in the maxim that there are “lies, damn lies and statistics”, although that is mainly due to the inventive ways that statistics get misused by people who do not understand them, particularly in cricket. However, a measure of how much this series has changed is seen in a few numbers.

In the first two Tests, India held a definite edge with bat and ball, averaging 3.5 runs per wicket more with the bat than England:

	Runs scored	Wickets lost	Average runs/wicket
India	1485	39	38.1
England	1038	30	34.6

In the last two Test though, the balance has moved violently in the opposite direction:

	Runs scored	Wickets lost	Average runs/wicket
India	821	40	20.5
England	1141	20	57.1

England average almost three times as many runs per wicket as India for these two Tests.

This is reflected in the fortunes of the England bowlers. Compare their combined analysis for the first two Tests with their combined analyses in the last two:

	1st/2nd Test		3rd/4th Test
	Analysis	Average	Analysis	Average
Jimmy Anderson	9-307	34.1	12-138	11.5
Stuart Broad	9-275	30.6	9-113	12.6
Moeen Ali	7-268	38.3	12-168	14.0

Who needs wicket-taking back-up bowlers when the most expensive of your three main strike bowlers is averaging 14? We often forget that, in the famous 2005 Ashes, Australia’s attack was basically a 3-man affair with, even among them, Brett Lee taking his 20 wickets at over 40; who remembers that Michael Kasprowicz and Jason Gillespie were the other two bowlers who started the series, averaging 62.5 and 100 respectively [Tait, Kasprowicz & Gillespie played 7 Tests between them in that series and took a combined 12-760. Mike Kasprowicz was christened “Casper the Friendly Ghost” by the Press for his lack of threat]? Even so, Australia came so close to winning the series. What is most striking though is that in the last two Tests of the current series, the three bowlers who form, England’s “strike trio” are averaging about one third of the runs per wicket that they did in the first two Tests in the series. The three are exercising progressive domination of the Indian batsmen to the extent that only Vijay, Rahane, Kumar & Dhoni average over 26, despite the fact that batsmen prospered so much initially in the series that comfortably the lowest Indian total in the first five innings of the series was 295.

It may well be that England’s surprise spinner lynchpin, Moeen Ali, will get rumbled and may never again be as effective. Certainly, the Australians will set out to destroy him, as they did Graeme Swann. However, as he gets more bowling and develops his skills, it is possible that he will avoid this fate. Despite his relative anonymity in the 4^th Test and suggestions that he has lost his mystery, Ravi Ashwin still has 104 wickets at 28.8 in his first 20 Tests, combined with a batting average of 41.6, making his non-selection a mystery and suggesting that Moeen Ali could do something similar for England with hard work and effort. Certainly, those who questioned Moeen’s right to play for England are looking rather foolish, even if his supporters are feeling slightly bemused by the turn of events. If Moeen can solve his problems with the short ball, he could become a valuable middle-order all-rounder, offering England the serious option to play two spinners without lengthening the tail too much (playing Monty Panesar and Simon Kerrigan, in contrast, would potentially leave England with the frightening prospect of having to bat Jimmy Anderson as high as #8).