Cricket 2014
The turnaround explained in numbers
August 14th 2014
I am a firm believer in the maxim that there are “lies, damn lies and statistics”, although that is mainly due to the inventive ways that statistics get misused by people who do not understand them, particularly in cricket. However, a measure of how much this series has changed is seen in a few numbers.
In the first two Tests, India held a definite edge with bat and ball, averaging 3.5 runs per wicket more with the bat than England:
Runs scored
|
Wickets lost
|
Average runs/wicket
|
|
| India |
1485
|
39
|
38.1
|
| England |
1038
|
30
|
34.6
|
In the last two Test though, the balance has moved violently in the opposite direction:
Runs scored
|
Wickets lost
|
Average runs/wicket
|
|
| India |
821
|
40
|
20.5
|
| England |
1141
|
20
|
57.1
|
England average almost three times as many runs per wicket as India for these two Tests.
This is reflected in the fortunes of the England bowlers. Compare their combined analysis for the first two Tests with their combined analyses in the last two:
1st/2nd Test
|
3rd/4th Test
|
|||
Analysis
|
Average
|
Analysis
|
Average
|
|
| Jimmy
Anderson |
9-307
|
34.1
|
12-138
|
11.5
|
| Stuart
Broad |
9-275
|
30.6
|
9-113
|
12.6
|
| Moeen Ali |
7-268
|
38.3
|
12-168
|
14.0
|
Who needs wicket-taking back-up bowlers when the most expensive of your three main strike bowlers is averaging 14? We often forget that, in the famous 2005 Ashes, Australia’s attack was basically a 3-man affair with, even among them, Brett Lee taking his 20 wickets at over 40; who remembers that Michael Kasprowicz and Jason Gillespie were the other two bowlers who started the series, averaging 62.5 and 100 respectively [Tait, Kasprowicz & Gillespie played 7 Tests between them in that series and took a combined 12-760. Mike Kasprowicz was christened “Casper the Friendly Ghost” by the Press for his lack of threat]? Even so, Australia came so close to winning the series. What is most striking though is that in the last two Tests of the current series, the three bowlers who form, England’s “strike trio” are averaging about one third of the runs per wicket that they did in the first two Tests in the series. The three are exercising progressive domination of the Indian batsmen to the extent that only Vijay, Rahane, Kumar & Dhoni average over 26, despite the fact that batsmen prospered so much initially in the series that comfortably the lowest Indian total in the first five innings of the series was 295.
It may well be that England’s surprise spinner lynchpin, Moeen Ali, will get rumbled and may never again be as effective. Certainly, the Australians will set out to destroy him, as they did Graeme Swann. However, as he gets more bowling and develops his skills, it is possible that he will avoid this fate. Despite his relative anonymity in the 4th Test and suggestions that he has lost his mystery, Ravi Ashwin still has 104 wickets at 28.8 in his first 20 Tests, combined with a batting average of 41.6, making his non-selection a mystery and suggesting that Moeen Ali could do something similar for England with hard work and effort. Certainly, those who questioned Moeen’s right to play for England are looking rather foolish, even if his supporters are feeling slightly bemused by the turn of events. If Moeen can solve his problems with the short ball, he could become a valuable middle-order all-rounder, offering England the serious option to play two spinners without lengthening the tail too much (playing Monty Panesar and Simon Kerrigan, in contrast, would potentially leave England with the frightening prospect of having to bat Jimmy Anderson as high as #8).
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