The World T20: Can Anyone Stop India Now?

 

The World T20

Can Anyone Stop India Now?

 

March 29^th  2016

 

Five overs left at Mohali. The run rate required has been climbing steadily. India are twelve behind Australia at the same stage and need two runs per ball. They have been well behind Australia at the same stage ever since the second over of the innings. This is the sort of situation that Australian teams have become clinical at closing-out, choking the life from their opponents over the years. Watson is bowling the seventeenth over: 19 balls to go, 43 wanted. Surely Australia have this one under control? The last Asian side in the World T20 are going out. The Australian bowlers just need to keep their heads and keep the ball up.

The next four balls go for 4, 4, 4 & 6 as Watson goes wide, then Faulkner drops it short, then bowls a yorker that would have been perfect had it been straight and then drops invitingly short again. In four balls Dhoni and Kohli have broken Australian spirits. The fight has gone. Four boundaries off Coulter-Nile’s next over as the bowler gets his lines wrong and it is all but over. For all the brilliance of Virat Kohli, you have to think that Australia folded like a card house under pressure when two dot balls might have won them the match.

With the West Indies hanging on to top spot in Group 1 and India ending the prospect of an Australia v New Zealand Final, the pundits seem convinced that only an act of god can stop India meeting New Zealand in the Final.

New Zealand v England

India v West Indies

For the marketing men, an India v England Final is the enticing prospect: east v west; former colony v colonial master, the inventor of the game v its biggest powerhouse. A Final without India is simply inconceivable and if the Final involves some historical payback, so much the better. However, part of the fun for many fans is to play down England’s chances of getting anywhere near the Final as far as possible.

Many England fans are looking at tomorrow’s match and thinking that they have got the easiest opponent of the other Semi-Finalists. Some New Zealand fans are indignant, thinking that their side is being unjustly made underdogs. Think again. New Zealand have shown imperious form so far. They are unbeaten. They have been put under severe pressure, most notably by Australia in their first game and came out on top. They then went out and beat the hosts by a wide margin despite defending a small total. The New Zealand spinners have tied the opposition in knots. And New Zealand have played every game at a different ground and won each time.

Interestingly, both Semi-Finals were previewed in the warm-ups. India hammered the West Indies in Kolkata, albeit in a 15 v 15 game, while England won comfortably against New Zealand, inflicting their only defeat of the tour of India so far in an 11 v 12 game. However, that was a very different New Zealand side. Perhaps it was that defeat that led to New Zealand’s change from a seam-based attack (4 seamers v England) to a spin-based attack in the competition proper. Many pundits thought that by dropping their two best seamers and playing two spinners with no great record they were making a disastrous mistake, but it has worked brilliantly and, in that warm-up defeat, Santner was their most effective bowler, with 2-24, including a rare maiden (there have been only five in the entire tournament). No one has yet been able to get after the three spinners. Santner and Sodhi have 17 wickets between them and are going at only just over 5 runs per over. Of bowlers who have bowled at least eight overs in the competition, only Liam Plunkett and, very marginally, Suleiman Benn have been more economical than Ish Sodhi.

While England will stick to a seam-based attack, New Zealand will stick to their formula of three spinners: who will read the conditions best? Who will cope best with the opposition attack?

The game is a very open one. As Trevor Bayliss put it – not very tactfully – New Zealand are not a team of superstars: they win by working as a team and have, for many years, perfected a system whereby the whole is so much more than the sum of the parts. It is what makes New Zealand such dangerous opponents. On form alone, it should be no contest: New Zealand have looked far and away the best team in the tournament. England, in contrast, scraped past Sri Lanka and Afghanistan and were asked to make a record chase against South Africa. Sooner or later you feel, someone will ask the same questions that Chris Gayle asked and there will be no answer. However, this being England, you can never tell: the fact that they have extricated themselves from some tight spots and that they are coming in under the radar as a seriously underrated team can only help. The bookies have New Zealand as slight favourites but, in a day-night game, much may depend on the Toss: if New Zealand win it and bowl, they will feel supremely confident; if England are chasing, they know that they can chase down any target.\

The second Semi-Final looks an open and shut case. India have been erratic so far but, now that they have faced down and won two elimination contests that seemed lost, you would be rash to bet against them, especially having fought their way out of the tougher group. For all the remarkable form that the West Indians have shown (and do not put much weight on that defeat against Afghanistan), it is difficult to see India stumbling now. Both teams are basing their campaigns on powerful batting, with the bowling generally being the weaker suit, that remarkable last over against Bangladesh excepted. India can take confidence from the fact that someone has always stepped up when needed.

Virat Kohli’s effort against Australia was truly remarkable, but there must be a little concern that no one else has really got any runs (only Dhoni and Yuvraj have more than 50 in the tournament). Similarly, the bowling has been based on economy and not strike-power: the 24 wickets taken by India have been shared around by six bowlers with Pandya’s five the best haul, although he is also by far the most expensive of the bowlers.

For the West Indies, Russell, Gayle and Samuels all have useful runs and Badree, Bravo and Russell all have wickets, while Benn has shown extraordinary control and economy. On paper, their form looks better but, as any Indian fan will tell you, “they haven’t played us yet”. Now, in the Semi-Finals, logic no longer applies: it is raw emotion and India will have tens of thousands of baying fans creating a hostile atmosphere, utterly convinced that their heroes cannot lose. Can a near 37 year old Chris Gayle, who surely will not be playing when the next World Cup or World T20 are played, go out with a bang? If Gayle were to fall cheaply, India will have a massive lift – if Gayle gets in, India will have to find a way of stopping him. The match may depend on which of Gayle and Kohli performs best on the day.

I will go, tentatively, for a England v India Final but, in this tournament, too much is tending to depend on the Toss: in these day/night games, the side that is chasing has always had a big advantage – in the first Semi-Final at least, the teams are so well balanced that on such things may, unfortunately, hang the entire match.