Australia Start In The Unaccustomed Role Of Favourites

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Australia in the Unaccustomed Role of Favourites

 

November 17^th 2013

 

It is always interesting to see how the betting market moves before a Test because the bookies rarely lose money on anything. A week ago England were narrow favourites in the market, with an Australian win a close second option. As of today, the odds offered on an England win have gone out and those on Australia have narrowed, so that Australia are warm favourites to win at Brisbane, with a draw and an England win offered at the same odds. It looks very much as if the Australians are, again, winning the spin war off the pitch.

Australia are spinning, successfully, that they are going into the series with a settled side, all of whom are in good form, while England are unsettled and have serious issues both in batting and bowling.

Given that Australia have lost three of their last four series, with a record of P11, W0, D3, L8 between these three series against strong opposition, it is a bold move to back themselves as the form side, even if they ended the series in England better than they had started it (and, even then, came close to losing at The Oval, as England were on the point of chasing down what looked like an impossible target). In between, there was the whitewash of a Sri Lankan side in severe decline, who have never won a Test in Australia; that though barely papers over the cracks.

Australia will start the Brisbane Test with a suspect bowling attack that will depend on Ryan Harris to stay fit and Mitch Johnson to find his range, while Peter Siddle, who faded badly through the summer, will have a lot of donkey work to do. It looks highly uncertain whether or not Australia will be able to count on the bowling of Shane Watson to spell their pace bowlers and, a pitch that favours Nathan Lyon, will also favour Graeme Swann. It is not impossible that Australia may play James Faulkner to give an extra bowling option without weakening the batting. Faulkner had some success at The Oval as England hit out trying to set up a declaration to allow a run chase, but is nowhere near the class of Tim Bresnan as a third or fourth seamer, so it will be interesting to see how he fares in a more normal match.

The Australian batting has also been shuffled around a great deal and will change once again from the side and order that played at The Oval. George Bailey will debut Bailey is a batsman with a big reputation who has come through the limited overs side, following the David Warner route. There are the usual questions about Michael Clarke’s fitness: how long he will continue to battle his back problems remains to be seen; it is tough to wake up day after day in pain after playing. Michael Clarke’s problems are similar to those of Michael Atherton who, in his autobiography “Opening Up”, describes vividly the daily misery of combining top-level sport with a degenerative back condition.

Australia will offer an interesting mix of veterans (Haddin and Rogers are both past their 36^th birthday and Ryan Harris is at, what for a genuine quick bowler, is the advanced age of 34) and relative youngsters (Faulkner is 23 and, Steve Smith, who seems to have been around forever, is only 24). Most of the side though is in the range from 26 to 32 at which cricketers are normally in their prime.

Remarkably, for a side that has not beaten quality opposition since November 2011, it seems that Australia’s biggest danger going into the series is overconfidence. That is quite an achievement, but there seems no doubt that Darren Lehmann is building a side that may need just one win to start a winning habit. However, after so many near misses and “we would have won if..”, getting that first win may be the hardest part.

[Update] Since sharing the series 1-1 against South Africa in November 2011, Australia have lost 4-0 to India home and away, 1-0 to South Africa at home and 3-0 to England away. That is 12 defeats and just 3 draws against strong opposition. Their only successes were a 1-1 draw at home against New Zealand and the 3-0 home win against Sri Lanka.