India Not England Most Likely To Benefit From South African Slip

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

The Ashes: a huge rankings trap for England

 

October 18^th

 

 
With Pakistan’s “surprise” victory against South Africa yesterday, South Africa can only draw the short series 1-1 at best and no one would be too surprised, given Pakistan’s superiority in the 1^st Test, if there series were to end 2-0. Whether or not this result should have been such a surprise is open to question: Pakistan lost to Zimbabwe only a week or so ago but, when they see certain faces, particularly at home, they are transformed, as England found to their cost last year. So far, Australia have bucked this trend but, as the aura of invincibility fades, the feeling of inferiority that opponents feel when facing them  disappears. It will be interesting to see what happens when they next visit the UAE.

For South Africa, sitting pretty at the top of the ICC Test rankings with 135 points, this is a rankings disaster. Such is the rankings gap between the two (Pakistan are 38 points behind, on 97) that South Africa need a 2-0 whitewash to maintain their ranking. Were Pakistan to win 2-0, South Africa would lose no less than 10 ranking points and their lead over England and India would be halved at a stroke. Even a 1-0 win to Pakistan would see South Africa drop by 8 points.

However, such are the workings of the FTP and the rankings that even a 2-0 defeat will see South Africa safe at the top well into 2014. Why? India play a Test series this Autumn, but only 2 Tests against West Indies. Even a 2-0 sweep will earn them just 3 points: enough to overtake England and go second, but not enough to threaten South Africa’s lead in any way. When England play Australia, the gap between the two in the rankings is large enough that England must win the series by at least 2-0 to avoid dropping back. Even a 5-0 win against Australia would see England go up only to 121 ranking points. If India sweep the West Indies, England will need a 4-0 win to defend second place in the ICC rankings: not too many people would back England to win by anything like that margin. Even a 2-2 draw in the series would drop England 2 points because the rankings difference expects England to win and win clearly. For each Test change in the margin towards Australia, England drop 2 points and Australia rise 2 (for 0-1 England drop 2 points, for 1-1 England drop 4, 2-1 to Australia, England drop 6, etc.)

The biggest immediate threat for South Africa comes from the Spring series that they play against India: a loss in that 3 Test series could see India take back the #1 spot to cap a revival that seems incredible after their 4-0 defeats against England and Australia just 2 years ago.

The message is that, for England, nothing less than a big win against Australia will do if they hope to close the gap on South Africa and mount a challenge for the #1 ranking in the next year, but their own results will just be one factor, they need other sides to bring down South Africa without India running away in the rankings themselves.