Staring at Cricketing Armageddon

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

Staring at Cricketing Armageddon

 

March 30^th 2015

 

Back in 2009, Peter Moores was coach, England were in a Kevin Pietersen crisis and everyone said that things would be okay in the end because we were only playing the West Indies and a 3-0 result at least was a given, however bad things looked.

That ended with the captain and the coach both being sacked just before the series. An emergency management team put in place for the Caribbean tour under the only minimally plausible captaincy option remaining, 51ao in the 2^nd innings of the 1^st Test and the series lost.

It sounds so familiar.

Through that series England struggled to bowl out sides with a seriously hobbled attack on featherbed pitches. Andrew Flintoff was rarely more than half fit. Jimmy Anderson and Steve Harmison had issues too. The attack suffered attrition to the point that, when trying to force victory on the last day of the 4^th Test, England had only two fully-fit bowlers  Of the bowlers, only Stuart Broad played all 5 Tests and England were reduced to calling up Danish bowler Amjad Khan, who arrived just in time to play with undistinguished results in the Final Test and has never threatened to be selected again.

This was the series though that enshrined Andrew Strauss’s reputation as a “defensive” captain when he refused to set the West Indies 180 to win in 80 overs on the last day of the final Test – on a pitch where both sides had passed 540 in their 1^st innings. With the help of a frantic century from Kevin Pietersen (102 in 92 balls), he set the West Indies a seemingly extremely generous 240 to win in 66 overs. The West Indies managed to collapse horribly from 80-3, but Ramdin’s 17* from 87 balls was just enough to hold on.

Of course, the denouement was that when the West Indies returned in May, they were well beaten. England hung on against all the odds in the 1^st Test in Cardiff and went on to win the Ashes quite comfortably and to consolidate Andrew Strauss as captain.

This time though things do not look so happy. Again England go to the Caribbean with a captain and as coach, Peter Moores, who could both be sacked at any moment. However, where in 2009 there was a five-Test tour and then the return series to bed-in a new management team here, both captain and coach go knowing that anything less than a convincing series will could see the team under new management, not for a return series against the West Indies but, instead, against a dangerous New Zealand side. And that the waiting Australians in the summer are going to be far less vulnerable than the 2009 Australians who had their own issues.

England face a nightmare sequence of opponents: West Indies (a), New Zealand (h), Australia (h), South Africa (a) and Pakistan (a). Even the most optimistic will only see two potential series victories there and some see a likely four or even five consecutive defeats. Two of these opponents whitewashed England in their last encounter and will be looking to repeat the dose. With England looking weaker and more unsettled now than at any time since 2007, there is a distinct prospect of four consecutive crippling defeats without a single win an any Test, let alone a series. Cricketing Armageddon for England looks all too possible.

While it is true that you would normally expect England to see off the West Indies and New Zealand without too much trouble, the experience of 2009 is a warning. If the West Indies get their nose in front early against a disorientated opponent, do not expect sporting pitches to allow a comeback.

England would do well also to remember that they were expected to see off Sri Lanka last spring without breaking a sweat, but were beaten and then were 1-0 down to India after two Tests. New Zealand, again in 2015 the warm-up for the Ashes, are on the crest of a wave right now and are always uncomfortable opponents. With their clever seam attack, they are not the sort of opposition that you want to face with a side short of confidence, although the struggles of the Black Cap batting line-up in the longer format to put winning totals on the board has long been their Achilles heel: 207, 68, 174 & 220 were the totals that they managed in 2013. Just once in New Zealand’s last two early season tours of England have they crossed 300 and since 2004 they have lost 7 of 8 Tests in England, with just a single fighting draw. However, as they say, that was then and this is now: their recent form is that they have won four of their last five Tests and have reached the World Cup Final to boot. Do not underrate them.

It is a far cry from 2013, when England had just beaten India unexpectedly in India, then whitewashed New Zealand and won the first two Ashes Tests to make it six wins in seven matches over three series. The Ashes series was closer than it looks on paper, but Australia’s chronic problems in all departments meant that they could never exploit an advantage, even when they had one. England were so close to beating Australia 4-0 when Michael Clarke, who probably believed that he had made what was little more than a face-saving, token declaration at Tea in response to England’s morning thrash for runs, saw things go horribly wrong. An assault by Kevin Pietersen took England to the brink of victory. When bad light and some time-wasting ended things, just 21 were needed off 4 overs with plenty of wickets in hand. Many fans have tried to re-write history to say that England were lucky to win that series, let alone to win by 3-0 and that it was Australia’s positive cricket that set up an exciting finish to the final Test, but that is being more than a little economical with truth.

In the aftermath, England went to Australia in great heart, with most pundits expecting them to win again but, in part due to some extremely poor selection decisions came back battered and mentally deeply scarred. Those scars are still clearly and deeply present. The tour ended several careers. This time England know that they are almost certain to be on the wrong end of a heavy defeat, barring a lot of help from the weather or some miracle. It is like the 1980s and the West Indians all over again.  While Australia received England burning with a sense of injustice and a desire for revenge, England seem to cower fearing another beating: there is no burning intent to turn things around.

Australia have seen players such as Steve Smith, Mitch Johnson and David Warner, who were formerly ridiculed, turn into incredibly dangerous opponents. Chris Rogers looks ageless. Shane Watson has fulfilled his potential. Michael Clarke has been re-born as captain. Brad Haddin no longer looks like a weak link living on borrowed time and the Australians will have to decide who to leave out of a seemingly endless array of fast bowlers. The only seeming weakness is in their spin attack, but even there Nathan Lyon looks far better than any English option bar possibly Moeen Ali who, somehow, despite being a non-specialist, continues to take good wickets, although one wonders for how long that happy situation will last.

While England still have a solid new ball attack in Broad and Anderson, both are getting close to the end of their careers and particularly Broad’s destructive days are getting fewer and further between. The temptation to drop Stuart Broad and to build for the future must be strong. Pacemen such as Liam Plunkett, Chris Jordan and Chris Woakes show promise, but all three need a big series – and soon – to break through and impose respect on opponents. Plunkett certainly needs to be trusted with the hard new ball if he is to fluster the Australians with his high pace and arguably, Jordan would also be a better option than Broad. Beyond them, things do not look so healthy. Bowlers such as Tymel Mills, Steve Finn, Boyd Rankin and Ajmal Shazad who, not long ago, looked like the future, are now looking very much like faded hopes who have never quite made it and have all dropped out of consideration. The same for spinners such as Monty Panesar – who looks unlikely to play much more at any level – Danny Briggs, Simon Kerrigan and Scott Borthwick (4 cheap wickets in his only Test). The best specialist spin bowling hope right now cannot even get a game for his (second division) county.

Only Ben Stokes, who is far from the consistency that England need in a Test #7 and front-line seam bowler and whose returns were so poor last year that it is unarguable that he did not rate a place in the World Cup squad on merit, offers something new, while Adil Rashid looks like a selection made more in hope than in conviction that he will spin out sides.

Stokes is an enigma. Since that 120 in the second innings at Perth, he has made 316 runs in 24 innings in all formats for England, at an average of just 14.4, including a sequence of 0, 5, 5, 4, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 23 & 2. Despite some sporadic fiery bowling performances, he has a total of just 4 wickets in his last 12 ODIs and T20s, although 4 Tests have brought 17 wickets. Stokes has a chance to get back into the Test side in the Caribbean and is the sort of character who could add some fire to a side that is doubting itself so much, but needs to perform to justify being selected. However, the suggestions that he would have changed England’s fortunes in the World Cup are more down to wishful thinking and to absence making the heart grow fonder than to any real evidence.

It is not impossible that if Jimmy Anderson were to be injured, England could go with an attack of Plunkett, Jordan, Woakes, Stokes and Moeen against Australia. It would not inspire terror, but is far from as bad as the nay-sayers would moan and is an attack that could only get better with experience and with responsibility. It is not even quite impossible that Moeen Ali himself could lead that England side out – he would be a popular and thinking choice for a side where born leaders do not abound. Given home conditions and the sort of helpful pitches that Australia supplied to their own attack in 2012/2013, Australia could just be made to fight hard to win: most fans would take that with open arms.

Coming back to the immediate future, if England lose in the Caribbean, it is hard to see how Alistair Cook could continue as captain and possibly even remain in the side, barring a huge series for him with the bat. Even with a win there, there is a feeling that he is being given the long, slow death and will go sometime this summer as the side slides to defeat and the approaching winter looks set to add more pain. A less conservative team would cast Cook and Broad loose now and cut their losses, rather than risk Cook going after bad results either in the Caribbean, or after the New Zealand series, which would give a new captain an almost impossible task to turn fortunes around against the toughest opponents of all. Cook could easily have been “rested”  for the West Indies tests to try a new skipper. Similarly, Peter Moores knows that with his ECB bosses under fire, he is the one easy change that they can make in response. Moores realises that the comments made by Colin Graves in advance of the Caribbean tour are aimed at him and not at the West Indians and are a clear warning that his position is in grave peril unless fortunes change… and quickly.

The alternative: a comfortable 2-0 or 3-0 win in the Caribbean, followed by the heavy defeat of New Zealand and a close Ashes series, with the captain in prime form, seems just too preposterous to contemplate right now. Under the current management it is simply not going to happen.