South Africa v England: 3rd Test, Preview: South Africa Ring the Changes

 

South Africa v England: 3^rd Test, Preview

South Africa Ring the Changes

 

January 13^th 2016

 

The equation is simple: two Tests left, South Africa cannot afford to lose either and a ground that usually offers a result for the 3^rd Test. A win seals the series for England. South Africa need at least a draw to maintain hopes of retaining their #1 ranking after the series, pinning everything on winning the final Test.

The South African selectors have responded with a raft of changes – probably two in personnel and one in batting order, with de Kock presumably taking the gloves and opening to continue the openers hokey-cokey.

South Africa are emulating England by going in with a 4-man pace attack. This though has been at the price of dropping Dane Piedt – the highest wicket-taker on either side in the series – and entrusting spin duties to JP Duminy and/or Dean Elgar. While Duminy is no Joe Root, neither is he a front-line spinner at this level, with 36 wickets from 33 Tests, an average of 8.3 overs bowled per innings and just one over in this series so far. With very hot conditions forecast and at an altitude great enough that oxygen debt significantly degrades stamina, South Africa are betting everything on their pace attack blasting through England’s batting: if someone digs in and the bowlers tire, there will be no one to take on Moeen Ali’s role of blocking up an end to rest the seamers.

Whilst Dane Piedt has undoubtedly been a surprise success for South Africa, it has come at a cost. His nine wickets have come at 40.7 and at a cost of 3.9 runs per over. Despite his long, wicketless spell at Newlands, Moeen Ali’s seven wickets have some at slightly lower cost (38.7) and at far greater economy: 2.6 runs per over. None of the South African bowlers can match Moeen’s economy and that has allowed England to use him for very long spells in a holding operation (only Moeen on either side has bowled more than one hundred overs so far in the series).

After Moeen and Piedt, the next highest load on a bowler has been the 91.3 overs bowled by Morne Morkel: 22 overs more than Steve Finn, 30 more than Stuart Broad; and 50 more than Ben Stokes. Morkel’s load has been almost crippling in the series and South Africa will contemplate with some horror what will happen if he is added to their injury list due to over-bowling.

Since 2001, South Africa have played 13 Tests at Johannesburg: won 6, lost 6, with just 1 draw.

Eight of the twelve Tests with a positive result have been won by the side winning the Toss.

Win the Toss, win the match.

The margins in the matches have tended to be huge: 3 innings wins, 5 more with margins from 123 to 358 runs. However, two of South Africa’s defeats – both to Australia after winning the Toss – were by the narrow margin of 2 wickets and the one drawn match saw South Africa, set 458 in what turned out to be 136 overs, fall just eight runs short of smashing the record for the highest successful fourth innings chase. when the wicket pair of Philander and Steyn, astonishingly, blocked-out the last three overs, with victory in their grasp!