England v Pakistan, 1st Test: Soft Centre or Iron Core?

 

England v Pakistan

1^st Test

Soft Centre or Iron Core?

 July 14^th  2016

Over the last two years since England made a radical shake-up, first of the Test team and then of the limited-overs squads you can argue that they have not really been properly tested. Australia were too inconsistent and, when the going got tough, far too weak to test England’s resolve properly. India briefly took advantage of England’s struggles before surrendering abjectly and Sri Lanka, despite giving England a much-needed shock in 2014, are a side that will always struggle to come to terms with May in England although, like England having to master conditions in India and Sri Lanka to become a more complete side, the only way to improve is to gain experience in them. And South Africa were, like Australia, very good indeed when they were good, but pretty mediocre otherwise, with the mediocre dominating.

What of Pakistan? They were good enough to take a close series in the UAE – and it was close – and win it 2-0. When they were down, they hung on and when they were on to, they made it count. Now, the lay England at home. The one thing that almost everyone in world cricket can agree on is that Pakistan have the weapons to hurt England. They also have a canny captain who has united the side in a way that few would have believed possible. Pakistan remain infuriatingly inconsistent, but very dangerous when things go right.

This series is #3 v #4 in the ICC Test table.

·        If Pakistan win 1-0, they leap over India into 2^nd.

·        If Pakistan win 3-0, they go ahead of Australia and top of the table.

For England, the equation is less favourable

·        If England win 1-0, they rise to 3^rd, above Pakistan.

·        If England win 2-0, they rise to 2^nd, but even a 4-0 win will see England remain well short of Australia.

The focus will be on Mohammad Amir, but both sides have a lot to prove. Pakistan have started a war of words by talking about England’s fragile middle order when, of late, it has been the top order that has failed them regularly, with the middle order bailing the side out. However, the middle order has been re-shuffled. Joe Root, who struggled against Sri Lanka, has moved up to #3. James Vince, whose place is still in some doubt, takes Root’s place at #4 and a re-commissioned Gary Ballance bats at #5.

To hear the critics, mostly from outside the UK, you would think that Gary Ballance is little more than an over-promoted club cricketer, barely of county standard. Actually, even after the runless spell that saw him dropped, he still averages 47.8 after 15 Tests. However, Ballance’s selection is a risk after a poor season so far, although 78, 32, 132 & 3 in his last two county games suggests that he has hit some form in the last month. 80 & 34 in his last two List A games says something similar.

More of a risk is the bowling attack. Jake Ball will play after an apprenticeship as drinks waiter. However, an attack of Broad, Woakes, Ball, Finn and Moeen Ali does look as if it could struggle to take wickets. Probably the last place is between Finn and the deserving Toby Roland-Jones: the lack of anyone of high pace or guile makes that attack look frighteningly like the one that David Gower was served-up in his captaincy debut against Pakistan in 1982 – not a happy memory for England fans – four steady medium-pacers and a flat spinner in Eddie Hemmings.

Given the doubts about both the England batting and bowling and the likely flat Lord’s pitch, the short odds on an England win look difficult to understand. However, given the mercurial nature of the Pakistan side, it may be that a Pakistani brain-fade such as the one that almost lost them the 1^st Test in the UAE makes those odds fair. The suspicion though is that Pakistan may have an attack better suited to the Lord’s pitch than England although, as has been pointed out, no side has yet taken 20 wickets in a match at Lord’s this season. Maybe England will be happy to settle for a draw and wait for Jimmy Anderson and possibly Ben Stokes to return for the 2^nd Test at Jimmy Anderson’s home ground.

The last two series between these two sides in England have finished 3-0 and 3-1 to England: this one could be a lot closer. If Pakistan show the soft centre that they have done in the past when touring, convincing themselves that the whole world is against them, they could suffer another heavy defeat; if they show the iron core of the series in the UAE, all bets are off. The same comment may be made of England: do they have the iron core necessary to make a proper assault on the #1 ranking in Test cricket?