2nd Test Preview: 4-0? A bit premature!

 

2^nd Test Preview: 4-0? A bit premature!

July 13^th 2017

Some pundits have already come out and, predictably, gone for a 4-0 England win. However awful South Africa have been so far in England – and they have been pretty poor so far in all formats and in all competitions – they have not lost a series in England since the Mike Atherton heist in 1998. Since then, both England series wins have been in South Africa. South Africa have won twice in England and once at home and one series in each country has been shared. Since re-admission, South Africa have won 14 Tests and England 13, with 17 draws. Only in 2012 has the margin been more than one Test. In other words, even when, on paper, one side appeared to have a huge advantage, the series have ended up being very close. After two Tests of the 2003 series you would have backed South Africa to win 3-0 at least: somehow it ended up being 2-2.

While England are unchanged and look to have few, if any real issues, South Africa will have a different captain, the leader of their attack suspended and one of their key middle-order batsmen dropped. In fact, they are still not sure of the exact configuration of their XI.

Faf du Plessis returns, hopefully reassured of his wife’s wellbeing and faces the job of restoring some discipline and pride to a side that seemed to be thinking more of catching the next plane home  than of catching England cold. Their pre-Test fielding drills have been sloppy, their energy in the field, inexistent and they got just about everything wrong at Lord’s. It might yet be that the Lord’s match gave a false impression: one wonders if the roles would have been reversed had South Africa won the Toss and batted, but their surrender on the last afternoon was abject and the South African slump since losing the #1 ranking in Tests has been going on for two years now with no obvious signs of reversing.

England have the luxury of going into the Trent Bridge Test with four seamers and two spinners, knowing that they have an attack suited for all conditions. They know too that Chris Woakes and Jake Ball are nearing fitness and that Mark Wood can feel them breathing down his neck, which is an incentive for him to perform at his favourite ground.

If South Africa win the Toss and Faf du Plessis instils some discipline and fight in the side, England may yet have an unpleasant surprise.

Yet England have not lost at Trent Bridge for ten years: in fact, since India won in 2007. Since then they have won six of the seven Tests played in Nottingham, five of them by huge margins and then that amazing match in 2013 when Australia’s last pair almost saw them home. However, the problem with sequences like that is that they end sometime although, at the moment, England feel like supermen each time they turn up at Trent Bridge: they have won there both after winning the Toss and losing it, batting first and batting second. Right now they need to keep the initiative and keep South Africa down. Win and the best South Africa can do is share the series. Right now you would have to back England to go 2-0 up unless the weather intervenes.