Ashes 2017/18: 3rd Test Days 3 & 4 - Rain and Marginal Choices Combine to Give England a Possible Escape Route

 

Ashes 2017/18: 3^rd Test Days 3 & 4

Rain and Marginal Choices Combine to Give England a Possible Escape Route

December 17^th 2017

When you have only taken one wicket in a full day of play and that one early, with the scoreboard at the end of the day showing the batsmen 229* and 181* after an unbroken partnership of 301 and, to boot, the bowler who has so far looked the biggest threat, has a cracked rib, you know that things are not going well.

Add to it the fact that the two Marsh brothers, whose selection has been ridiculed in Australia, have 209 between them when even the Australian media would have expected their combined scores to be closer to 9 than to 209, you know that even if the weaknesses in the opposition are manifest, your bowlers simply cannot take advantage of them. If you had offered England the chance to bowl at the two Marsh brothers before the series, they would probably have seized it with open arms sensing that the middle order would be vulnerable. Well, Shaun came in at 179-3 and Mitch left at  549-5. Scratch that theory!

Even when there were signs that England could get some self-respect back as three wickets fell quickly – 549-4 became a slightly more respectable 561-7, with hopes of keeping the lead under 200 – Tim Paine, another ridiculed pick and the not particularly highly rated Pat Cummins added 93. In this series you can say that Cummins has given England at least as many problems with the bat as with the ball.

Before the series there were two manifest, gaping problems in the England side:

·       Multiple injuries and other issues have robbed the squad of many support bowling options (Wood, Plunkett, Finn, Roland-Jones, Stokes, …) were all unavailable and Moeen has been hampered by injury all tour, reducing him to a shadow of his fotmer self.

·       While England had several solid, experienced batsmen, Stoneman, Vince and Malan were “hail Mary” picks who convinced very few pundits. Australian press and pundits ridiculed them as nobodies and anticipated that their careers would be ended rapidly.

So far, in five and a half innings of the Test series, the England batting has amassed 2x100 and  7x50. Of those, Stoneman, Vince and Malan account for 1x100 and 5x50. Put another way, Cook, Root, Bairstow and Moeen have managed just 1x100 and 2x50 between them. Moeen’s top score is 40. Cook’s is just 37. Without the contribution of these three marginal picks, England would be in a far worse mess.

Rain has helped the England cause, but England will have to survive 98 overs with four good wickets down. Realistically, their best chance of a draw is for Malan and Bairstow, who have already steadied England from 100-4 with a partnership of 32, to repeat their first innings heroics and for rain to help. However, there is one more factor that will help: we are in a “SWALEC 2009” situation. If England can get ahead – and the deficit is “only” 127, or one good partnership – every run will be a run that Australia have to get and every over an over that Australia will not have to get the runs; take off a few overs for the weather and it should be possible to survive. For England, it is vital to save the match and to do it with as little help from the weather as possible. That means batting out 70+ overs. If they can, the criticism will fall on Steve Smith again for delaying his declaration and giving England an escape route: in Adelaide he got away with not enforcing the follow-on; here it would be nice to ease the pressure on England by seeing how the Australians miss out due to slightly dubious tactics.

This is England’s last chance. Fail to hold the line tomorrow and the series will be lost and with it, potentially a couple of senior players too.