World Cup 2019, Days 32-33: And Then There Were Five…

 

World Cup 2019

Days 32-33: And Then There Were Five…

July 1^st 2019

 

With just six qualifying matches remaining, only Australia are guaranteed a Semi-Final place. Even India run a slight – albeit, very slight – risk of not making it through and, at the same time, facilitating Bangladesh’s path to an unexpected Semi-Final place.

Such is the impact of recent results that, were India to fall to a surprise defeat tomorrow to Bangladesh, their Semi-Final place would hang on not losing to Sri Lanka in their final group match and Bangladesh not beating Pakistan in their last game.

It is an unlikely scenario but, as they are now direct rivals for a Semi-Final place and play each other in the penultimate round of matches, were India to lose their last two matches and Bangladesh win their last two, both teams would be on five wins. There would also be a Net Run Rate swing that could threaten to put Bangladesh ahead. The swing would need to be 0.25 runs per over per match – equivalent to an average margin of about 30-40 runs in each game. Theoretically, Pakistan could also eliminate India but, in this case, the margins would have to be much larger, as Pakistan’s NRR is much worse than Bangladesh’s and they have just a single match to improve it.

The bottom line: such is the credit that they have accumulated from their victories, that even two narrow defeats are sufficient for India to qualify comfortably for the Semi-Finals but, the mere thought that, at this stage, they could somehow still miss out, imbues the match tomorrow with some tension.

New Zealand and England do not have that comfort. Their play each other on Wednesday in their own, respective final contests. Here, the situation is simple: the winner is guaranteed a Semi-Final place; if the match were to be abandoned without a result, probably both would qualify. The loser though would be at the mercy of other results. If New Zealand lose, they would be vulnerable to a big Pakistan win against Bangladesh or, even more so, to Bangladesh beating both India and Pakistan. New Zealand will, at least, start the match knowing if the second of these scenarios has already been ruled out.

If England lose, they would be dependent on the following set of results: either, Bangladesh would have to lose to India and then beat Pakistan; or, then India would need simply to avoid a big loss to Bangladesh and then the Bangladesh v Pakistan match would have to be abandoned with no result.

What of Sri Lanka? Sri Lanka can reach England’s ten points by beating India, but the first tie-breaker is number of wins: England have five, Sri Lanka can only reach four. Sri Lanka are eliminated mathematically, whatever Net Run Rate may say when qualifying ends, however unfair that may be.

So, still we have many permutations and the calculators may be working overtime, albeit in some of the less likely scenarios.  So, how have we got here?

After England’s desperately poor performances against Sri Lanka and Australia, you would not have got good odds on India being sent packing, particularly not on a ground that was reckoned to be particularly favourable to the Indian attack. And even less when England took a punt on playing four bowlers capable of hitting 90mph (144km/h) and dropped Moeen Ali, while India went for a balanced attack. The reckoning was that England would lose top-order wickets to Shami and Bumrah and would then commit suicide against the spinners in a desperate effort to get runs on the board, while the pace attack would be hit to all parts with gay abandon by the powerful Indian batting.

What no one anticipated is that, even though Bumrah permitted no liberties, Shami would be attacked at the other end to such effect that Bumrah’s incredible economy was irrelevant. The first PowerPlay still ended with England 47-0 and looking comfortable. The next seven overs produced 77 runs, as Pandya’s first two overs went for an eye-watering 23. Even though England had a mid-innings wobble, 337-7 was always going to test India’s suspect middle order, especially as it would be a World Cup record chase.

India’s problem was passivity. While England scored 13x6 and 27x4, with Jos Buttler producing a cameo of 20 in 8 balls when quick runs were needed, India, in contrast, played three straight maidens from Chris Woakes and had the lowest PowerPlay score of the tournament to date. Although they reached the boundary 35 times, just once it was for a maximum and that one came in the last over of the match, with the contest already decided. Then, bizarrely, after the match, Kohli complained about the short boundary! Virat, if it is so short, get the ball over it!!!!

Each time that India threatened to put together a match-winning partnership, a wicket fell. Liam Plunkett dismissed Kohli, Pant and Pandya each time one of them was starting to look dangerous. Woakes removed Sharma. Then came the most bizarre part of an unusual match. Adil Rashid came back with 95 required from 54 balls. There was a collective intake of breath: if this over went for 20-25, Indian would be right back in the match, but Dhoni and Pandya just pushed five singles. Just four boundaries came between the 41^st and 48^th over. However well England bowled, the lack of aggression from the batsmen left the fans dumbfounded and boos ran around the ground as the Indian fans saw the lack of intent, before the stands started to empty as the reality of imminent defeat hit home.

The official margin was 31 runs, but it felt like a much heavier loss than that. The Indian air of invincibility was well and truly exploded.

West Indies v Sri Lanka was a dead rubber, but with pride at stake. This was a case of contrasting fortunes. The West Indies started the tournament with a thunderclap of raw pace and aggression and, after their shattering, narrow loss to Australia and their pummelling by England, have got poorer with each passing game. Sri Lanka looked awful at the start of the tournament but, gradually, have gained self-belief.

Sri Lanka looked set for 350+ after a wonderful century from young Avishka Fernando, but were reined back in slightly. Even so, 339 was a big target for a West Indies side shorn of all confidence and looking less united and more apathetic with each game. At 22-2 after five overs one thought that the match might end quickly. That it did not was down to a marvellous century by Nicholas Pooran – another young player – and a good fifty for Fabian Allen. Had Allen not run himself out with 57 needed from 36 balls, the West Indies would probably have won, although a cynic would say that they would have found a way to lose the game somehow.

Pooran kept fighting: 31 from 18 was doable. With the main bowlers bowled out in a desperate attempt to slow the West Indian charge, on came Angelo Matthews for his first bowl in eighteen months. His first delivery was a pretty rank one outside off. Pooran could have hit it anywhere, but edged it through to the ‘keeper. Game over. Matthews and Malinga kept their heads and the West Indian challenge evaporated as swiftly as it had earlier re-appeared. Matthews ended with 1-6 from his two overs at the death. If those are his last two overs in cricket, it is not a bad way to end his bowling career.

Tomorrow: Bangladesh v India. India are massive favourites. All logic says that they will seal their Semi-Final spot and end Bangladesh’s slim hopes, but then, all logic said that England would beat Sri Lanka.