Ashes 2013
Mixed Messages from Both Teams
July 30th
[15:30 CEST]
This Ashes series gets more surreal by the day. With Australia expected to make
changes, possibly even fundamental changes in the balance of their side with
suggestions that any or all of Nathan Lyon, Jackson Bird, Mitchell Starc and
David Warner could play, other voices are being heard suggesting that maybe
Australia will make few, if any changes. Adam Gilchrist has suggested that
maybe Australia will not change their top six at all and Darren Lehman has
suggested that Warner is no certainty for Old Trafford (how quickly he adapts
from the pitches and conditions in Southern Africa to Manchester will be
fundamental to the decision as to whether or not to go with him or, at least,
should be).
One option
is for Australia to make a straight swap and play Nathan Lyon in place of the
injured James Pattison. This would give them an attacking spin option to
counter Graeme Swann and, if the pitch really is expected to be a big turner,
three spinners with complementary styles: the off-breaks of Lyon, the slow left
arm of Agar and the leg spin of Smith. It would only take one of the three to
come off for Australia to get the win that would re-open the series. As Steve
Smith has some back problems and will need to pass a fitness test before
playing, it may be that the selectors feel their hand forced into playing Lyon
if they do not have Smith’s bowling available. The danger of the three spinner
strategy is that it could force Michael Clarke into making heavy use of Ryan
Harris and risking his breakdown, or into treating Shane Watson as a front-line
seamer. Both are risky strategies, but risks that may be felt worth taking to
force a win.
An advantage
of the Lyon for Pattinson swap is that it would give a vote of confidence to the
top seven rather than destabilising them further with additional changes. It is
an Australian trait that has worked well in the past to show faith in your
players to come good and one that they have been losing recently.
An
alternative option is to make major changes to a side that was badly beaten
last time out. Options might include Warner replacing Hughes, Lyon replacing
Agar, Bird replacing Pattison and, if the selectors are concerned about Harris’s
ability to play consecutive Tests, Starc for Harris (the argument here might be
to conserve Harris for a big effort in the last two Tests if the series is
still live then).
Right
now it appears that Lyon for Pattinson may be the preferred option, if Smith is
fit.
England,
in contrast, were confidently expected to play the same eleven as at Lords.
However, the decision to add Chris Tremlett and Monty Panesar has sent a
message of potential tactical changes. Old Trafford is expected to take a lot
of turn so, England may want to have a second specialist spinner rather than
depending on Joe Root. Similarly, Old Trafford tends to reward tall fast
bowlers so, with Steve Finn not felt worth the risk, Tremlett has a real chance
of playing. Who though would drop out? There’s the rub.
Old
Trafford is expected to favour reverse swing over conventional, but it is also Jimmy
Anderson’s home ground and where he learnt to bowl. So, ideally, England want
both Bresnan and Anderson. It is helpful to tall bowlers, so both Broad and
Tremlett are indicated. And it is expected to be a spinners’ paradise, so Swann
and Panesar should play. Someone will be very unlucky to miss out on Thursday
morning. Or, just possibly, the idea is to keep Australia off balance and try
to push them into making a wrong decision on their final XI.
If I
were a betting man, I would go with an attack of Anderson, Broad,
Bresnan and Swann, unchanged from Lords, but the England selectors have shown
that they are prepared to adapt, when necessary.
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