Twist Or Stick For England?

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

How much should England gamble?

 

December 4^th 2013

  

Popular wisdom is that the Adelaide surface will be flat and that, with rain threatened, a draw or an Australian win are the only possible results. There is massive speculation about what side England are going to put out. Part of that is no doubt due to Andy Flower not wanting to reveal anything that might help the Australians but, with Michael Clarke set to name an unchanged XI, relying on Shane Watson to act as fifth bowler despite the 2^nd and 3^rd Tests being back-to-back, England are faced with some major tactical questions. With no Jonathon Trott and Matt Prior struggling, can England risk changing their habitual 4-bowler attack? With the likelihood of turn on offer, could England play both Swann and Monty? If so, surely they would not play just two seamers.

However, Monty comes complete with his legendary lack of any useful input to the team except when bowling. Word is that has fielding, both for Sussex last summer and for England at Alice Springs, is becoming so devoid of any energy that England would effectively be taking the field with an outfielder missing. The Australians would undoubtedly look for him in the field and see any shot sent in his direction as runs-for-free. The only way to play two spinners would be either to bat Stuart Broad at 7, or to play Ben Stokes as third seamer – not a reassuring thought unless you are an Australian.

What pointers there are suggest that Gary Ballance will play, as will Tim Bresnan. Bresnan will add some steel to the lower order and has an appetite for work in the field that will pep up the attack when the shine is off the ball. However, there are good arguments for picking Jonny Bairstow instead of Ballance.

With Perth likely to be fast and a result pitch that favours Australia, there are plenty of arguments to take a risk and come out hard at Australia. That could mean a left field pick, trusting the top six to get runs and playing Broad at 7, supported by Bresnan, Swann, Anderson and Monty. However, barring Finn and Rankin, who certainly will not play, almost any other member of the squad could be running out onto the field when play starts. How Andy Flower and Alistair Cook decide to play this will give an idea of how determined England are to come back.

One thing though has been mentioned more by the Australians than the English. The Australian side is full of confidence and up for it right now. However, that confidence is only skin deep. It would only take a bad session for this series to swing straight back England’s way and Australia remember full well how, at Chester-le-Street, what looked like 2-1 with one to play suddenly became 3-0 with the final Test a dead rubber. In 2010/11 Australia started making the running only to lose the series 3-1 when they should have been 2-1 up after 3 Tests.