Ashes 2013
Which way will England jump?
December 12th 2013
One thing
that seems to have passed unnoticed is that Alistair Cook only needs to do one
thing to bring England right back into this Ashes series: win the toss! So far,
of the seven Ashes Tests this year, five have been won by the side winning the
toss; the two exceptions were seriously rain-affected and also dominated by the
side batting first. With the Perth match almost certain to produce a result, the
chances that the sequence will extend to six wins from eight tosses won are
very high.
England’s
shadow side, the EPP, chased down 348 to win in a maximum of 77 overs against
Western Australia 2nd XI. Key to the win was Jonny Bairstow’s 123,
opening the batting. What was more interesting was that, if Gary Ballance is really
intended to make his debut tonight, what he was doing batting down the order in
a frantic run chase is open to question. It was Ballance though who saw England
home with two overs to spare in company of Varun Chopra.
We still
have little idea what the England strategy will be bar the rather open “there
will be changes”. As there was really no chance that England would play two
spinners at Perth, that one is pretty obvious. As it is also assumed that Tim
Bresnan will play, one option is the straight swap of Bresnan for Panesar. This
has some advantages: it would beef-up the tail and give England four seamers,
while leaving Graeme Swann in the side for variation and as a specialist slip
fielder. The worry here is that, with Stokes at 6, Prior at 7 and Broad at 8,
the reliable batting would end with Ian Bell. Can England make enough runs for
even five bowlers to defend?
Other
options? Ballance for Stokes at 6. With temperatures forecast to reach as much
as 40°C, going in with only three seamers is a huge risk, especially if England
lose the toss again and the Australians continue to target Graeme Swann. Finn
for Monty? Possible. Finn has to be bowled in short, sharp spells and bowl fast
and aggressive. However, England badly want to have Tim Bresnan in the side to
have a control bowler for long spells.
Quite
possibly England will leave the top seven unchanged and make the straight
Bresnan for Panesar swap. It may well be the least bad option, although I would
love to see Steve Finn thundering in with the new ball tonight.
We will know
in a few hours…
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