Fourth Test: Who Is Going To Crack?

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

Fourth Test: Which Side Will Crack?

 

August 5^th 2015

 

Three Tests. Three easy wins. Both sides have looked fallible and both have severe weaknesses that have been revealed at different times. Both sides will make changes.

For England, Mark Wood will almost certainly come in for the injured Jimmy Anderson. With the bowling of Ben Stokes only making a testimonial appearance so far in the series (in 3 Tests he has combined figures of 1-199) and Moeen Ali’s wickets expensive, having to replace Jimmy Anderson with a player who would be only making his fifth Test appearance is a huge handicap to overcome. The onus will be on Stuart Broad and Steve Finn to keep the pressure on Australia.

However, that is far from the end of England’s problems. Adam Lyth has managed 6, 37, 0, 0, 10 & 12 so far and Jos Buttler 27, 7, 13, 11 & 9. England are losing far too many early wickets and are prone to middle-order mini-collapses.

However, Australia’s problems are also important. The top three have scored plenty of runs so far, but Michael Clarke and the middle order have struggled. The bowling has also looked extremely hot and cold: lethal in the 2^nd Test, at times in the 1^st and 3^rd it looked really toothless. Australia seem almost certain to drop Adam Voges, but as many as four places could be under debate.

The pitch and conditions will be closely scrutinised. If it is a classic Trent Bridge seamer, England will want to exploit it effectively: Australia have not looked good against the moving ball, but then England looked pretty awful at Lord’s on a pitch from which only the Australian bowlers extracted any life at all.

England have, since March, alternated good matches and awful ones. Australia have been consistently awful away from home for a couple of years.

No one knows which England and which Australia will turn up at Trent Bridge. Barring a lot of rain there will be a result, but the series could just as easily be poised at 2-2 after the match as it could be 3-1. Either way, Australia know that if they lose this match, they lose the Ashes. If Australia win, they will oblige England to win at The Oval to re-gain the Ashes.