Third Test: A Dose of Realism About Extraordinary Results

 

 

Ashes 2015

 

Third Test: A Dose of Realism

 

August 2^nd 2015

 

England’s chase of 121 led to a host of statistics to say that it might not be an easy target. Chief among them was to quote the failure to chase 144 in Abu Dhabi in 2012.

Another number that was mentioned a lot was just how many times England have been bowled out for under 100 since 1990. It was rather a lot. England in the 1990s though, were a side at their very lowest ebb. What about since the year 2000? That is a quite decent time base and is, conveniently, the 21^st Century, so it is a natural time period to look at.

It shows that England are actually the side with the third best record of the big eight. Only India and, surprisingly, the West Indies have been dismissed for under 100 on a smaller percentage of occasions in the 21^st Century.

Side	Times Dismissed Under 100	Total Test innings	Percentage
West Indies	2	257	0.8
India	3	274	1.1
England	4	337	1.2
Australia	4	310	1.3
South Africa	2	151	1.3
Sri Lanka	5	240	2.1
New Zealand	6	214	2.8
Pakistan	10	225	4.4

The long and the short of this table is that we can expect England to be dismissed for under 100 just once in every 80 Tests innings or, in other words, once in every thirteen series of 3 Tests. It happens, but far less often that some people suggest.

What about the Edgbaston target itself? How about being dismissed cheaply in the fourth innings of a Test?

At first sight, this looks far more hopeful for fans who wanted to see a tight finish. 118 times in Tests England have been set a 4^th innings target and have failed to reach it. In 17 of those chases England have been dismissed for fewer than 121. No less than 3 times in 1994 against three different opponents, England were dismissed for fewer than 100 in a 4^th innings chase.

However, in most of these chases, a battered side was facing already a massive defeat and was defeated before starting the chase. Have a look at some examples: England lost by 405 at Lord’s in 2015, by 384 at Brisbane in 2002, by 356 at Lord’s in 1994, by 295 at Melbourne in 1994.

At Edgbaston England were facing a modest chase in a Test that they had bossed. It was a complete different match situation. There was no prior bombardment from Ian Botham to turn the tables. No massive fightback preceded the Australian defence of the total. Despite the fight from the tail, England were always in control, even a major bowler short with the injury to Jimmy Anderson. Even with the knowledge that there was no Anderson to torment them, that Ben Stokes’s two wickets in the series have cost 199 and that Moeen Ali’s nine wickets have come at around 45 each, it never really looked as if Australia would start to put real pressure on England.

One number that was out around was how many times England had been set a target smaller than 125 and lost: exactly 3. “Yes, it can happen”, people said, without looking at the small print that the three instances were in 1882, 1888 and 1902! In other words, the most recent was over a century ago. However, all three defeats were inflicted by Australia and all three were in England.

Batting	Opposition	Target	Score	Ground	Year
England	Australia	85	77	The Oval	1882
England	Australia	124	62	Lord’s	1888
England	Australia	124	120	Manchester	1902

What about losing a Home Test when set 121 or fewer to win?

That too has happened just three times and, again, all three instances have featured Australia.

Batting	Opposition	Target	Score	Ground	Year
England	Australia	85	77	The Oval	1882
Australia	England	111	97	Sydney	1887
Australia	South Africa	117	111	Sydney	1994

The classic case being when an England side containing W.G. Grace failed to chase 85 at The Oval in 1882 leading to the original Ashes. Only one of the three instances though has happened in the last 128 years.

Extraordinary results require extraordinary circumstances to come about and, in reality, are extremely rare.

Pundits, like fans, forget this simple fact and see exciting finishes everywhere. A side can dream of being the first to chase 500 to win, or of defending under 100 to win (which the West Indies did actually succeed in doing against Zimbabwe in 2000, when Zimbabwe were set 99 to win and were dismissed for 63), but such feats so rarely happen in reality. There have been 2174 Test matches so far, but look how short those lists above are.