A Case of "Dejá Vú"

 

 

Ashes 2013

 

Dejá vú

 

August 12^th

 

 [10:00 CEST] Yesterday I wrote that England needed a big day and that 250 would have earned a first innings lead. Well, I was right on one and wrong on the other, but, apart from the slight annoyance that yet another tail-ender slogged valuable runs that allowed Australia to get past 250, pretty much everything has gone right for England. Despite the fighting talk that the match is delicately poised, Australia know that if the lead reaches 250 England will be favourites and if it gets above 280 – Ian Bell says that England want 300 – only rain will be able to save them, barring something miraculous.

Possibly the best news for England was that Jimmy Anderson looked in much better sorts this morning and that can only be bad news for Australia’s chances. Graeme Swann also came up with some old ball magic. It was forgotten later, but he managed to get big turn from a ball pitched in line, rather than in the footmarks, to dismiss Haddin, who was so bewildered that he reviewed a ball that would have hit middle little more than half way up. Swann got rid of both overnight batsmen before the new ball was due, both with excellent deliveries and was looking dangerous enough that one wondered if it was the right decision to take it. Swann now has 21 wickets at 27 in this series and is comfortably the highest wicket-taker in the series.

The new ball in hand, Jimmy Anderson made short work of Siddle and Lyon as Harris blazed away at the other end. This time though the tail-end runs were only an irritation, rather than a major problem and it is a measure of just how well things went for England that they would have been disappointed not to keep the lead around 20 rather than the eventual 32. Australia were undoubtedly expecting a minimum of 80 and probably over 100 lead. It all meant that the lion-hearted Ryan Harry, who has kept Australia in the series with some fiery new ball bowling was back in harness far earlier than he would have hoped. Despite his reputation for being as fragile as china, his efforts have put some of his teammates to shame.

Despite the normal awful start, England made their usual recovery that makes me think that, had the Old Trafford match been played to a finish, England might well have won, whatever the position when rain stopped the Australian charge there. Having been seen by Australia as a weak link in the England batting, Bell now has 4 centuries and 2 fifties in his last 5 Tests against Australia. However, his job is not yet done. Of those four centuries the largest has been just 115. England cannot afford to revive Australia with quick wickets in the morning and Bell needs to go on and make a big hundred, supported by a 30 or 40 from at least one and preferably two of Bresnan, Prior, Broad and Swann to ensure that the target is a big one and that Australia have no hope of making it.

England may already have enough: they would possibly be able to defend 180 and anything over 240 will test the Australians. However, they will look at 280 as the absolute minimum from here and would probably like to push the lead past 300. To do that though, the last five wickets have to put on a much better showing tomorrow morning than Australia’s last five did today in an almost identical start of play position of a set centurion and with the new ball due in 6 overs. If they can, the series will be won by tomorrow night at latest and England will be 3-0 up. If though, it is another case of “deja vú” at lunchtime, with another rapid clatter of wickets seeing a quick end to a promising innings, all bets are off.

[11:30 CEST] First reports are that Shane Watson can barely move this morning in the warm-ups. Would Australia even risk batting him except in a crisis?

There are also suggestions from some fans – presumably the same ones that condemned the side as hopeless on Friday – that England may throw away the win by batting on for too long today and condemning the match to a draw. That is most unlikely to be a problem. To kill the game England’s last five wickets have to bat on to the Close today and even then you would argue that three full sessions should be enough tomorrow. I just cannot see that happening. England will do well to bat past lunch. To make the game absolutely safe, they need to do just that and get through to probably an hour before Tea.