Ashes 2013

 

The Australian Hokey-Cokey is Set to Continue

 

August 7^th

 

[07:30 CEST] With just three days between the 3^rd and the 4^th Test there was always the possibility that a minor knock would force one or other side to make a change to guarantee that players would make it through five days, quite apart from tactical changes. It is likely that Graeme Onions will replace Tim Bresnan, although there is a strong case for resting the heavily overworked Jimmy Anderson instead to refresh the attack.

What Australia will do is quite unpredictable. There seems to be a move to reinstate David Warner at the top of the order despite Darren Lehman’s affirmation that Australia would use Watson and Rogers for the whole series. Ryan Harris has lasted two Tests, but a third, back-to-back would be asking a lot of his resources and Nathan Lyon’s performance at Old Trafford was, at best, disappointing given that Graeme Swann took six wickets, despite being unwell on the first day. There may well be a case for deciding that a slow bowler – Lyon did little to quieten the whispers that he is that and not a genuine wicket-taking spinner as Graeme Swann, much derided by Australian supporters as over-rated, completely out-bowled him – is a luxury at Chester-le-Street and playing Jackson Bird instead.

With 146 runs for Shane Watson at 24.3 and a sequence of scores that goes 13, 46, 30, 20, 19, 18, his place as an opener lost and Phil Hughes looking good outside the Tests, it is even possible that the latest change in the side may be for Hughes to win a rapid re-call and Watson to join the in-out batting hokey-cokey. With a start in every single innings but only once managing to pass 30 the selectors may feel that the more hit and miss Hughes offers a better chance of a decisive score.

Australia’s biggest problem, despite the big score at Old Trafford, remains their fragile batting. With Pattinson and Agar out of the side, Michael Clarke averages more than double anyone else in the likely team. Brad Haddin has two fifties, as do Chris Rogers and Steve Smith, but all average under 32. England remain overwhelming favourites with the bookies to win at Chester-le-Street and Australia cannot reasonably expect to depend on Michael Clarke to do it all on his own a second time.