Ashes 2013
Will the Real Australia Please Stand Up
August 1st
[09:00 CEST]
Reading the postings by Australian fans on different sites has been interesting. Some have taken a rather
despondent line of doom and gloom. Others have suggested making a major
clear-out for the rest of the series, filling the side with young players and
letting them develop. A few suggest that England have been extremely lucky in this
series, are right out of form and ready for the taking. One suggestion based on
this last opinion has been to propose playing Warner for the injured Pattinson,
leaving Australia with only three specialist bowlers (“three
is more than enough”), including the
injury-prone Harris and the injured Agar. This sounds horribly like the
defeatist strategy that England tried in their horrific 1986 Caribbean tour,
when specialist bowlers were sacrificed to try to reinforce a batting line-up
that consistently failed to make runs. England lost 5-0 and only in one Test of
the series were even in with a minimal chance of salvaging a draw.
In
fact, Australia’s squad is pretty young. Only Haddin and Rogers are over 35.
Six players are under 25 and 11 under 28. If Australia keeps faith with them,
the squad could develop into something quite useful in a couple of years. Of
the bowlers, only Harris is close to the end of his career; all the others
should have at least 5 or 6 years in them at this level. Unfortunately though,
a losing streak such as Australia’s – which currently stands at six – brings calls
for major changes. The selectors are under pressure. Players are under
pressure. And the pressure to drop the lot and bring in new players becomes overwhelming:
of the top eight at Lords, only Michael Clarke’s position could be considered
safe and, even he might not be unless the rot is stopped soon.
So far
we have seen one close match and one where the margin was abysmal. Which one
represents the true level of the Australians? At Trent Bridge runs from the
tail came close to compensating for the horrible inadequacy of the top six. At
Lords, England’s top six massively outscored Australia, despite losing early
wickets. Have a look at the scores in the two Tests when the 6th
wicket fell:
England
|
Australia
|
Difference
|
|
1st
Test, 1st innings
|
180
|
113
|
67
|
1st
Test, 2nd innings
|
218
|
164
|
54
|
2nd
Test, 1st innings
|
274
|
91
|
183
|
2nd
Test, 2nd innings
|
344
|
136
|
208
|
In two
Tests England have already aggregated 512 more runs for the first six wickets
than Australia. It is a reflection of just how badly the Australians have
batted so far. All of England’s top six have at least one fifty to their name
so far and have registered 3 centuries and 5 fifties, compared to Australia’s 5
fifties.
However,
you should never write off an Australian side. Even in the Packerless series of
1978/79 Australia still managed a big win in the 3rd Test after
England had won the first two and should have won the 4th Test too
after managing a big first innings lead. Once again, England are two up after
two and are facing a much better Australian side than the one that Mike
Brearley’s tourists annihilated in the end 5-1.
The
equation is simple for both sides. Only an Australian win will keep their
chances of regaining the Ashes alive. A draw will retain the Ashes for England.
An England win will seal the series.
Only in
1886 have Australia ever been whitewashed in an Ashes series of more than two
Tests and that was only a three-Test series. It is asking a lot for England to
go two better, yet already speculation about a 5-0 result is rife… and hugely
premature. If England were to go 3-0 up then, just perhaps, people should start
to dream but, right now, the series is not even won yet.
What
has been clear from the first two Tests is that the reading that fans placed on
the match after the first day was invariably found to be way out and, even
after two days, it was not always obvious which way the wind was blowing.
Everything
indicates that England will be unchanged for Old Trafford. The changes in the
Australian side will say a lot about their state of mind.
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